The Poll of Polls is predicting a Labour led minority Government with Supply and Confidence from the Māori Party, but that is only one outcome, the others are National/ACT Government and a National minority Government with supply and confidence from NZFirst and ACT.
This blog looks at how a National minority Government with supply and confidence from NZFirst and ACT works.
The sudden realisation by National that ACT pose an existential threat to them politically is only just dawning on the National strategy team.
This is National’s strategist, Chris Bishop, remember as you look at his haggard face and dead eyes that he is only 39…
…Jesus wept, he looks like he’s been asked to dig a trench beneath a melting nuclear reactor in the Soviet Union.
That’s what being National’s strategist does to you.
Ages you horribly.
As it should, because there is a real danger to National here that ACT will dominate any post negotiation and get everything they’ve ever wanted through.
180 days out from his elections with Labour, John Key was consistently double digits ahead of Labour.
180 days out from his election with Labour, Christopher Luxon has barely managed to beat Labour and when he does it’s a couple of points.
National always over poll heavily and to win on election night need a far larger margin than they are currently registering.
The fear of the ultra wealthy is a Labour Party forced to make serious concessions to the Left. Normally the wealthy can rely on the Left being too distracted by identity politics and internal bickering to do anything meaningful against their interests, but John Tamihere and the new Māori Party he is leading are disruptors of the worst type in that they can’t be bribed.
When they say they are going to tax the rich and remove GST off food, they mean it.
That is why the wealthy Right are so interested in supporting an Epsom cup of tea deal in Northland to help Shane Jones win and ensure NZF is represented if they fall short of 5%.
The only way National can win is with ACT AND NZF.
This would blunt ACTs more crazy policy while denying the Left a true political victory but it would also see the next 3 years spent having Winston try and claw the face of David Seymour, while David Seymour kept trying to shank Winston in the heart with Luxon sitting between them sobbing into his Bible.
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Imagine poor Mr Luzon trying to be a diplomat, when America, Australia, Seymour, and Peters are telling him to call Xi a dictator, whilst Federated Farmers and Frontera are telling him that if he endangers their sacred FTA, they will fuck him with a barbed wire dildo. He’ll look like a man who has the meat sweats after eating 5kg of pork sausage.
How about an ACT government with confidence and supply from Natz? Ha!
“the wealthy Right are so interested in supporting an Epsom cup of tea deal in Northland to help Shane Jones win”
Really? Any actual evidence of this assertion?
National are strongly supporting their Northland candidate (Grant McCallum), I get ads coming through for him a lot.
NZ First are gone for all money. It will be a close election with Labour/Green/TPM likely slipping in as the new Govt.
What else could go wrong for Labour?, and they are still level pegging with the Natzos–Baldrick is a bit creepy let’s face it! Many women don’t like the shiny domed fecker one little bit, natzo women support him for the team only probably.
Never say never in politics though events happen quickly–maybe the nut bar brigade will unify and get 5%–but doubtful…really the boomer sunset is what is playing out here. New gens outnumber boomers now, just, and will do so comprehensively in 2026. This country is going to be younger and browner–with a large white pensioner brigade too of course, just not as politically dominant as they used to be.
“NZF are gone for all money” have you seen the size of crowds Peters is pulling ? Just in Dunedin Sunday .. packed hall..
NZF will comfortably be back.
https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/%E2%80%98change-govt-critical%E2%80%99
Shane Jones to win in Northland?
He has to beat National candidate farmer Grant McCallum who is strongly supported especially in the southern part of the electorate and is advertising heavily. He has to beat ex-MP Matt King now DemocracyNZ who got 16,903 votes last time. Has to beat incumbent Willow-Jean Prime who polled 17,066 in 2020. Has to have Act list MP Mark Cameron who took 1,279 last time not take too many votes.
Or have National/Act/DemocracyNZ in an Epsom cup of tea deal in Northland to help Jones win to ensure NZF is represented if the wealthy Right fall short of 5%? Sounds a theory but the picture on the ground is a lot different.
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