New Zealand has made headlines around the world for its Covid 19 response. This first attracted gushing praise in liberal quarters for the perceived efficiency and effectiveness of Jacinda Ardern’s isolation tactics and how it has spared the country most of the worst depredations suffered by nearly every other developed nation. After that, there was some eyebrow raising from those same quarters for what inevitably followed – a new immigration policy that sought to end a ‘reliance on temporary migrant labour’ by cutting low-skill immigration and focussing on the wealthy instead.
“Covid 19 has starkly highlighted our reliance on migrant labour – particularly temporary migrant labour. The pressure we have seen on housing and infrastructure in recent years means we need to get ahead of the population growth” said the tourism minister Stuart Nash, “with our borders fully open again, we can’t afford to simply turn on the tap to previous immigration settings”.
Indeed, there is no doubt that New Zealand’s adept Covid-19 response has ultimately led to a wider appreciation of the benefits of stricter border control, especially at times of economic fragility. And now, another benefit of precisely the same thing has become apparent: this year, the flu season passed us by.
No Flu Season
“It’s extraordinary” said ESR virologist and flu expert Dr Sue Huang, “I’ve never seen anything like this in my 20 years of work in the flu surveillance area”. Indeed, as the country moves into winter, the expected flu season, which has been accepted as coming round every year without fail, simply has not shown up. The case was the same in 2020, too.
It might have been overshadowed in its severity by the global pandemic, but influenza outbreaks remain a serious issue and one which health services devote a lot of funds and resources to combatting every year. In 2021, however, only three cases have been noted within managed isolation facilities and there have been none within the wider community. In 2020, there was only a handful of cases.
Just like Covid, influenza is a virus that spreads from person to person, can lead to more serious illnesses and is potentially life-threatening within vulnerable groups such as the elderly, those with a chronic condition, the immuno-compromised, and pregnant women.
Impact of Covid Restrictions
It seems fairly obvious that this is a result of covid restrictions and changes in public behaviour which, as well as limiting the transmission of that virus, has had an almost identical effect on the transmission of the flu. There is no doubt that lockdown played a massive role, with people staying indoors, social distancing, and employing hygiene measures. This has clearly helped stem the spread.
Revamped health infrastructure to deal with the pandemic, kitting out public places with everything from hand sanitiser stations to spill kits, has naturally also played a significant role.
Yet the almost non-existent flu cases in New Zealand raises an important question with regards to the country’s wider Covid policy and what makes it the country that weathered the Covid storm better than most others.
As we know, many developed nations have implemented similar Covid restrictions, from lockdowns to enforced social distancing and a massive proliferation of hygiene facilities in public places. Yet despite this, almost no other country has reported a flu season that simply didn’t turn up. New Zealand is clearly doing something different, and it may not be something typically praised in liberal quarters.
Border Closures
It seems all but certain that what has contributed to New Zealand’s absent flu season is the border closure that has kept the virus out of the country. Dr Huang says that the lack of flu this year is down to the fact that returnees had to go into managed isolation of fourteen days. This not only helps them recover but stops the transmission of flu into the country.
As Dr Nikki Turner, director of the Immunisation Advisory Centre (IMAC) has said, “Last year [2020] we had no flu season at all. We had occasional sporadic cases and most of them in MIQ facilities […] Last year [2020] has shown us very clearly what a hugely significance difference [this] can make.”
In light of this, there is a strong chance now that, just as tighter border controls during the pandemic made clear the economic benefits of continuing them into the future, so too might this extraordinary effect of the lockdown influence government policy after the pandemic has been brought under control.
Of course, the situations are somewhat different in nature, which needs to be borne in mind. Whereas border closures were designed to stop covid coming into the country (and was undoubtedly successful in that), the reasons for New Zealand’s new post-covid immigration policy were primarily economic, with a goal of economic recovery in mind.
When it comes to the effect of tighter border restrictions on flu numbers, we are talking only about national health, and the health service’s ability to combat incidences of such viral infections into the future. Nevertheless, there are a number of reasons why this phenomenon might encourage stricter immigration in the future.
The Future
As Dr Turner has observed, post-covid immigration easing, such as the reopening of the trans-Tasman bubble with Australia, has seen the return of other respiratory viruses, like RSV, to New Zealand again. Dr Turner has said that experts saw very little RSV in 2020, but cases have recently started to increase again. The easing of travel between Australia and New Zealand is clearly the cause.
When it comes to the flu, incidences are currently only seen in MIQ facilities, which means it is restricted to those who have recently returned to the country and are isolating in such facilities. It follows then that the reopening of New Zealand immigration will see the numbers hike once again. “As yet, we have not seen flu. But flu is only a plane ride away” said Dr Turner.
The effect of this on New Zealand’s immigration policy (as well as public support for it) seems to be another covid-related phenomenon that shows it in a favourable light. Although the new policy of tighter border restrictions springs from nominal economic concerns, it was born out of a covid-era health policy. That same policy has spared New Zealand two seasonal flu outbreaks, thus displaying even more potential benefits of post-covid border tightening.
Jacinda Arden’s government was praised internationally for a robust and effective covid response before being criticised shortly afterward for the new immigration policy that sprang from it. The phenomenon of New Zealand’s absent flu season will only help usher in similar approaches to immigration policy.