Grant Robertson’s terrifying CGT admission & why blaming MMP doesn’t work

By
Martyn Bradbury
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57
11

I’m bloody surprised 

I maintain that we have an experimental Government still trying to find its mana and soul and that there is a serious lack of Executive level advice around Jacinda who is being left to carry it all herself.

Add to this a mediocre Front Bench who are sitting on their hands, and policy failures like CGT are bound to happen.

Giving hint to my argument of a poorly advised Executive comes this astonishing admission on the CGT by Grant Robertson who incredulously told the media that he was surprised that Labour voters have reacted with such fury at the gutting of a serious attempt at tackling inequality.

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Does this sound like a well advised member of the Executive or someone who has been blindsided…

Finance Minister Grant Robertson said he was surprised that the capital gains tax decision was getting such a strong reaction and he said claims that Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had shown a lack of leadership over it was “ridiculous.”

“I’m not surprised that there are people who feel strongly about the importance of getting better balance back into the tax system.”

…which inevitably leads to this groaner…

“I think people need to take a step back and realise this is an MMP Government. We formed this Government with Labour on 37 per cent. “

…let’s be clear here, this is not the fault of MMP, it is the fault of a poorly advised and short sighted Executive counsel.

If Labour had wanted to pass this, they would have passed a watered down 15% CGT that exempted the family house and cut a deal with NZ First not to stand Willow-Jean Prime in Northland leaving Shane Jones a clear run.

If this was an MMP issue, Jacinda wouldn’t have ruled it out as Leader.

This was short sighted and desperate, it wasn’t an MMP checkmate by wily old Winston,  wily old Winston could barely keep his eyes open, this was a poorly thought out knee-jerk that was kicked repeatedly into touch with no plan beyond kicking it into touch.

How does Labour regain its Mojo? Her front bench need to step up. Those who are not performing should stand aside and allow the new talent within Labour to come forward. Secondly there needs to be new executive appointments around Jacinda to provide far better tactical advise to the Prime Minister and far better communication with Winston.
Listening to Grant articulate his surprise at the fury of the backlash this CGT u-turn has caused makes me concerned things are far worse inside the strategy room than I’m fearing.

57 COMMENTS

  2. “Former Labour Party President Mike Williams did not think the wider Labour Party base would be too worried about the CGT rejection.

    “There would be elements of, particularly the unions and the extreme left of the Labour Party, which would be annoyed.”

    Mike Williams..the guy who bragged about being the guy ‘making the phone calls’ to get Jacinda in as leader, Jacinda, who came as a complete package with Robertson…thinks CGT is only dear to the Extreme Left and, erm, Unions..you know, the group that represents and protects the average worker.

    Remember..this is the Party who are making defenders and representatives wail in despair..and actual members of of the disabled community literally cry..of course there is no nation wide roll-out of cuts…its all by stealth…INCREMENTAL CHANGE if you like..

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?
    c_id=1&objectid=12223776

    • Williams and his eye bags fled to the safety of the prison gravy train after Labour lost in 2008, leaving the extreme left to suffer a decade under National. He should stop coat-tailing on Jacinda and stick to his RNZ/Michelle Boag chat show cuddle fantasy.

      • “…Michelle Boag chat show cuddle fantasy.”

        Thanks, Brian. Now I’m not going to be able to eat without dry retching for the rest of the day.

    • @SIOBHAN, Maybe if you are so angry you should start bothering to vote more regularly than once in a blue moon. Join the democratic system rather than keyboard warriors.

      We just had 30 years to neoliberalism that might have been avoided had more people both voted it out.

      It’s bizarre that the woke lefties fight tooth and nail to allow more people to reside in NZ, while not actually understanding the majority support right wing government and are less educated than previous migrants NZ attracted. We are in a down hill spiral of attracting a certain type of migrant here and they ain’t the best and brightest. Now we have the fake ‘masters in international studies’ code word for fake 1 year paid for diploma for residency.

      In spite of the statistics many lefties can’t grasp that the low wage economy and all that entails from lazy immigration for cheap labour, satellite families and consumerism, to free trade deals that don’t mention climate change, is NOT going to help support the welfare system and decrease house prices. Current data would suggest that the Ponzi are going to drain the welfare system and increase house prices.

      More people need more houses, low paid families can’t afford $650k+ houses when their wages are stagnant, so they get poorer. A CGT would have increased the rental shortages while not actually adding any taxes for health and education.

      NZ sells itself short and has very short term thinking in place to think having hundreds of thousands of fraudulently educated, uncommitted people to NZ, that have no true job prospects apart from owning a cafe or bakery on a labour Ponzi, but can access welfare for generations, are not going to create massive issues going forward.

      Then there are the people fleeing from crimes they committed in their home countries…

      NZ has the 4 in Chinese government’s most wanted list for corruption. It must be our ‘business friendliness’. sarcasm.

      https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/four-chinas-most-wanted-residing-in-auckland

      All this but don’t hear any calls from the keyboard warriors to clean up the corruption and stop the fraudsters coming to NZ and settling here but instead their anger is directed at the current taxpayers on taxable income not those who somehow avoid taxable income.

  3. I now regret my spelling mistakes. Makes me not want to tell people what to do.

    So we grapple with these mystical changes. We can give accurate descriptions of problems that explains the profiles that people experience and some of the features they find that they are in.

    We are also (you and I, Frank) are able to talk about this on the level of machine learning and what has come out of it is a picture of a society that is in flux and must improve our optimal grip on reality. And optimise normal people’s grip for making sense of things and for learning. There is very good justification for these things to be discussed as guidance for those who might read our scribbles and give a plausible grip on the world.

    Although engaging in debate is not optimal for getting a grip on ideology it is rational and logical for guidance and cultivating wisdom.

  4. I hear that young Labour were upset but maybe it’s a generational thing https://www.nzherald.co.nz//lifestyle/news/article.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=12222586&ref=clavis

    … seriously the main point was Labour campaigned on NOT putting in a CGT last election, and most people would have been worse off because there is so many housing shortages and most of our economy now centres around housing (housing earns more than your low waged job), so if voters wanted it, they would have voted Green last election as the only party who campaigned for a CGT (which fewer people did which explains that all this so called ‘anger’ seems very manufactured).

    It’s a bit like transport, you need to get the public transport working before people can leave their cars, not tax them off with no practical alternatives, with housing, NZ wages and wage security are dropping like stones, our pensions are at risk by government policy of overloading the system with new pensioners who earn low or no wages, our Kiwisaver is not guaranteed and gains have been underwhelming, as Kiwi’s expenses continue to rise, taking away the ‘house’ security blanket with zero alternative for income from a high waged secure job to replace it, means few takers. The renters are the most vitriolic who are led to believe that a CGT (in spite of all overseas evidence to the contrary) will make houses more affordable for them.

    Tax laws have been the same in NZ for a long time and the amount of people coming to NZ to live, work and explore that is effecting housing the most aka the demand, but does not compute with the Generation Z/millenial type thinking.

    The most vitriolic for CGT seem to be ones who later confess to never voting. The election results are the most revealing on what people wanted last election and voted accordingly.

    • Yes. It is utter nonsense to think CGT makes houses cheaper. It hasn’t happened anywhere else, for the simple reason it adds cost and doesn’t incentivise supply.

      The way to make housing “cheaper” is to promote business and industry in the regions. Supply constraints, artificial and otherwise, have locked up the main centres and that isn’t going to change as home owners are not going to vote to undermine their own retirement fund.

      For the record, both National and Labour are equally useless on the housing front.

      • Pete, you sound like you’re suggesting a “more market” solution to our housing crisis?

        Please tell us that is not your bent

        • “The market” is “people”. The market is “buy and sell signals people send”.

          Housing – land, in particular – is one of the most heavily regulated sectors. Land supply is (mostly) constrained by government decree, particularly councils.

          How’s that working out?

          The answer is not more government. Obviously.

          If we want more houses, create incentives to build affordable homes. Austin manages it. Portland doesn’t. Care to know teh difference?

          • How are you going to stop them being a commodity?That would require something owners would never vote for, so it would require a bloody revolution by the dispossessed, which isn’t going to happen in New Zealand outside the simple minds of undergraduate Pol Sci students.

            Meanwhile, in Texas they meet demand with supply. In Portland…..they do what we do.

            The question that should be asked is why people choose housing as a viable investment class. The answer to that is constrained supply (government) met by growing demand (government again)

          • They do, but that isn’t the reason. New Zealand has a lot of land, too – we are only 1% urbanised – but we artificially constrain supply for housing.

            If we don’t want sprawl, and if we also recognise it is politically impossible to significantly devalue city real estate, then the answer lays in the (shrinking) regions.

          • Last time I looked, New Zealand wasn’t a totalitarian dictatorship.

            “Let them”?

            So, within a democracy, where you’ve got people with their retirement/life savings, in houses, ***how*** are you going to convince them to undermine that investment and vote to do so?

            You won’t. Labour couldn’t even get a CGT past which didn’t even include the family home. That isn’t a solution. It’s a fantasy.

            It seems few are interested in discussing a solution to the problem, namely affordable houses for more people.

          • Yes I agree with the points you make but it is not draconian for all to have a home.

            The system has been manipulated over time so many do not have homes and a few have an empire of rentals.

            Much of public sentiment is driven by what junk they are fed daily though MSM.

            What we are fighting is a mind set created to perpetuate the few having excess and the many without.

            Keep thinking in that mindset and change is off the slate.

  5. I’m just going to say it, Ardern is frankly a useless PM. She gets praised for her empathy and kindness but when it comes to governing, she is bloody hopeless. I’m officially off the Jacinda train, as I mentioned yesterday, every single measure when it comes to poverty, inequality and welfare has worsened since we got the government benches, what the hell are we trying to defend?, incompetence?. Kelvin Davis, Robertson, Twyford and the rest of the front bench do have to stand up, but so do left leaning supporters who see Ardern as this new messiah who’s shining brightly. She’s achieved nothing for those that actually need it, time people woke up to her bullshit.

    • The facts are Micky, if it wasn’t for Jacinda, you would be now looking at National being in power right now.

      Forget Winston and the part he played, but before Jacinda, it was chaos within the Labour camp.

      National were absolutely bloody useless in their last three years in office, and not much better in the previous 6 years.

      There has been a lot of over expectation on Jacinda, but I reckon she is going ok.

    • Helen Clark ruined The Labour Party for me and it wasn’t until certain people was parachuted in has Labour begun its revival in the polls and slow policy revival. My only wish is that Labour repair themselves quicker than National have after John Key totally fucked them Nationals in the 2017 election.

  6. Both central and local government seem to be frequently ambushed by their lack of real information on what the electorate as a whole is thinking. This is possibly because they do not consult in a meaningful manner before coming up with their ideas. The whole submission process, besides being back to front, and at whatever level, is shot through with bias towards the moneyed and articulate with the time and ability to make submissions. There is no way such processes can be representative of us as a whole. Real consultation, at the start of the process of policy formation, can be achieved through citizens’ assemblies. There are heaps of examples around the world. Let’s give them a try.

    • You are absolutely right John. This is the path of true democracy. It is the most efficient and inclusive way to get forward momentum. The decisions become policy and they are made by we the people from the bottom up. The job then of the politicians is simply to enact what we have decided

    • Iceland has lessons for NZ.

      Public think is very much a product of MSM.
      Who owns MSM in NZ.

      Its not Kiwis financially or politically. Media power is not on NZ hands.

      We are controlled by faceless financial institutions and the neoliberal aims of their transnational management and investment groups. The pattern tends to support the common money which owns the many financial stake holders.

      Owning media is a tool for setting political agendas.

      The trend

      http://www.converge.org.nz/watchdog/15/05.htm

  7. It’s interesting that Labour’s original idea was for a CGT tax set for 15% without inflation adjustment while Greens had 33% one but allowed for inflation adjustment.

    Then the TWG decides on 33% without any inflation adjustment, presumably to maximise opposition and then have the government bring in a compromise (Labour or Greens). Then ..

    I think Robertson is being disingenuos, playing we did not know our party supporters really wanted something done card. Total nonsense. It is deliberate caucus practice to let the party members determine party policy but then decide for themsleves what they do in government.

    Party members forget this while the party is in opposition but soon re-learn this once Labour is back in government.

    A rule of thumb, if it is something those who will vote Labour anyway support they can safely ignore party policy, if it is seen as (a bribe) to win votes in the centre they will enact policy.

  8. How different is Labour under Ardern vs Little? She is magnetic and definitely photogenic, perhaps gaining exposure for her personality more than policy. Some people seemed to vote for her on what they imagined she might symbolise, exaggerated by pre-election hyperbole.

    But the reality may be that this is the same Little-era party resigned to another term in opposition. Only, Jacinda got the upset victory.

    I am hoping that the risk-adverse first term of this coalition is to cement a second, bolder term. The closer National stay in touch in the polls, the more Labour will play it safe. Once, if, National drops away sufficiently, then maybe the more transformative policy will follow.

  11. Martyn, if you see this I’m interested in some insight into how happy you think Jacinda is with her front bench and advisors and whether she will demote some of them – or, is she perfectly happy with the way things are going (being just as neo-liberal as the rest of the Labour hierarchy)?

    • I don’t know that being happy, or not happy is something she can do much about re her front bench.

      Labour have all the Maori seats, so they can count on being considered, and in the coalition we have NZ First and the Green Party, all wanting a slice of the action.

      So Jacinda is between a rock and a hard place as far as the front bench goes.

    • It was pretty evident from Arden’s first public appearance, with Robertson smirking at her shoulder, where labour’s economic compass was pointing.
      Labour is no broad church.
      A large portion of NZ is not being served politically at all.
      Farmers, China, property owning boomers and rich people have National.
      Rich people have ACT.
      Middle class Auckland chardonnay socialists, property owning boomers, NIMBYs and China have Labour.
      Man bun sporting, groomed bearded green washing hipsters and millennial trendsetters have the Greens.
      The elderly have NZ First.
      Working people, Maori, small businesses, beneficiaries, the disabled, the poor have no real voice despite being a much bigger demographic cumulatively.
      We need a real option that isn’t a German criminal or an angry Maori racist.
      We miss you Jim Anderton.

      • Jim added intelligent clear thinking and common sense. He was not cowered by business NZ nor its related off shore financial empire and foreign owned NZ MSM..

        Jim gave us Kiwibank as a state owned bank. That has been compromised since to some degree as NACT prepared for a sell off.

        The first Labour Govt nationalised two banks, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and in 1945 The Bank of NZ which has since be sold in stages roger douglas floating it on the share market with a 15% sell off and later selling of much more. it is now owned by the Ozzie banking cartel.

        Labour and National colluded to get rid of a state bank.

  12. Where are the politicians with the insight to recognise they’re useless? I don’t think your recipe for improved government is workable Martyn. These people are rent seekers and won’t relinquish their positions of power.

  13. “Those who are not performing should stand aside and allow the new talent within Labour to come forward.”

    How do those not performing work out who they are? Robertson, for example, probably thinks he’s doing a great job prioritising according to what he perceives is populist appeal.

    And who are the new talent? My guess is that anyone younger than Robertson and Hipkins are likely to have been infected by a belief system consistent with what the nats bedded down so successfully in the 1990s. We’re now up against more than a generation of hard wiring that isn’t going away unless our focus becomes sorting out our values as a nation.

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