WAATEA NEWS COLUMN: What winning the Māori vote looks like for Labour this election
Debate rages about what ‘winning’ the Māori vote looks like for Labour this election.
Purists argue the aim should be all 7 Māori electorates, (despite that damaging the chances of beating the Government), while research conducted by Stuff in 2023 as to who Māori voted for last election suggests a completely different threshold for ‘winning’.
Add into this the enormous age demographic changes inside the Māori electorates alongside TPMs candidate only MMP voting strategy and the Greens fielding outstanding Māori candidates, ‘winning the Māori vote’ for Labour simply can’t be measured based only on a simple 7 seat win/lose focus.
First up, I believe Labour have an excellent chance of retaining , Ikaroa-Rāwhiti because Cushla is an incredible candidate and I believe they will pick up Te Tai Tonga because Mananui Ramsden is a remarkable candidate.
Secondly, I believe Te Pati Māori will retain Hauraki-Waikato, Te Tai Hauāuru and Waiariki. Aperahama Edwards is a unique candidate who I believe will take Te Tai Tokerau and Tāmaki Makaurau could be a close run race between Kerrin Leoni and Oriini Kaipara.
Thirdly, the Greens have put forward some of the most dynamic Māori wahine in NZ politics and with TPMs Candidate only voting strategy could capitalise on the demographic changes and pull up to 30% of the Party vote inside the Māori electorates.
So where does that leave Labour in terms of ‘winning Māori vote’?
I come back to the 2023 research.
Weighted out to the general electorates, Māori vote estimates break down like this:
Labour – 35.42%
Greens – 10.05%
TPM – 16.10%
ACT – 5.15%
National – 22.14%
NZF – 5.68%.
Now.
My assumption is that Māori who voted for NZF and ACT in the general electorates will not have balked at the incredibly anti-Treaty agenda of this Government as NZF and ACT were VERY open about their contempt going into the the 2023 election, but the 22.14% who voted National THAT is where I believe Labour can have real success.
Those 22.14% would not have appreciated the anti-Māori agenda Luxon would embark upon because no one anticipated how weak and spineless he would be.
It is that 22.14% that Labour should seek to win back to the fold and I believe it’s already a big factor in why Labour are consistently ahead of National in the general polling.
Winning over those 22.14% while TPM generate an overhang and recycle their wasted Party vote into the Greens is a sure way to ensure the Opposition can beat this Government. Simply tallying Māori Electorate wins and losses isn’t enough for Labour to lead the next Government.
