This year it is the Overhang Echo Chamber Election and it is an existential one for the NZ Left

This year it is the Overhang Echo Chamber Election and it is an existential one for the NZ Left

Echo Chambers

Luxon has agreed to only 3 debates and turned down a second TVNZ debate and that should anger everyone.

ACT and NZF pulled out of the BHN debates and that will be seen throughout this election as the Right pull back into their right wing echo chambers which makes the mainstream debates so important.

I think no Left wing candidate should consider appearing on the Taxpayers Union debates as they will be bad faith performance art for the reactionary Right.

This election won’t be about convincing the centre because that doesn’t exist any longer thanks to social media hate algorithm polarisation as the dropping support of National and Labour attests.

This is about turning out the base, not winning the middle.

Overhang

What is fascinating will be the role of the overhang this year.

I think TPM could win 5 electorates while recycling their party vote to the Greens and that will create an overhang, but also, National very much could generate one as well!

National 25–26% + 38–40 electorate victories = perhaps 6–8 overhang seats.

Suppose the election produced something like:

• TPM: 1% + 5 electorates → perhaps +3/+4 overhang
• National: 27–28% + 38 electorates → potentially another +3/+4 overhang

You could conceivably end up with a Parliament of around 126–128 MPs.

Crucially, you couldn’t then use the normal 61-seat majority assumption.

128 requires 65.

That’s potentially very important in a close National/ACT/NZF versus Labour/Green/TPM/TOP election because both sides could generate overhangs simultaneously.

This election is an existential one for the NZ Left

Brothers and Sisters.

Can I just please remind everyone what is at stake this election, because I warned y’all last election that you didn’t understand the crazy shit National + ACT + NZFirst would generate policy wise because you were all too angry and post covid bitter at Labour.

So please hear me now.

If you thought National + ACT + NZF version one was cray cray, it ain’t nuthin compared with what National + ACT + NZF version 2 will be like.

 

 

Comrades, the Right Wing Social Media Influencers have done the same MMP Overhang math we on the Left have done and they are calling for all their followers to candidate vote National while party voting ACT or NZFirst.
In 2023, National won 44 electorates, this election they are certain to lose at least 4 and get a party vote that could be sub 28% which would generate an 8 seat overhang which would spell the end of the Party list careers of Nicola Willis, Gerry Brownlee, Chris Bishop, Paul Goldsmith and Melissa Lee.

That would be a devastating blow to National’s Cabinet, (excluding Melissa Lee).

Consider the outcome of this.

ACT and NZF with double digit empowerment plus a National Party Cabinet smashed to smithereens.

If Luxon can’t control Winston and Seymour now, how on earth does he do it without key members of his Cabinet and them double their size?

The quick yellow fox and silver wolf will jump all over the lazy blue hog.

Expect 3 times the crazy and 5 times the social carnage.

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