This will be the Culture War Election of overhangs and echo chambers
I think this will be the CultureWar Election of overhangs and echo chambers.
Culture Wars
All NZ First and ACT have this election is culture war grievance, malice and spite.
ACT are the racist right and NZF are the cooker right.
This country is not failing because of karakia, honouring the Treaty, vaccines or the Trans.
This country is failing because Big Polluters, Property Pimps, Banks, Corporations and the mega wealthy use their political influence to lock into place their monopolies, duopolies, oligopolies to ensure plutocracy.
The Right manipulate peoples petty bigotries for their donors interests.
Echo Chambers
Luxon has agreed to only 3 debates and turned down a second TVNZ debate and that should anger everyone.
ACT and NZF pulled out of the BHN debates and that will be seen throughout this election as the Right pull back into their right wing echo chambers which makes the mainstream debates so important.
I think no Left wing candidate should consider appearing on the Taxpayers Union debates as they will be bad faith performance art for the reactionary Right.
This election won’t be about convincing the centre because that doesn’t exist any longer thanks to social media hate algorithm polarisation as the dropping support of National and Labour attests.
This is about turning out the base, not winning the middle.
Overhang
What is fascinating will be the role of the overhang this year.
I think TPM could win 5 electorates while recycling their party vote to the Greens and that will create an overhang, but also, National very much could generate one as well!
National 25–26% + 38–40 electorate victories = perhaps 6–8 overhang seats.
Suppose the election produced something like:
- TPM: 1% + 5 electorates → perhaps +3/+4 overhang
- National: 27–28% + 38 electorates → potentially another +3/+4 overhang
You could conceivably end up with a Parliament of around 126–128 MPs.
Crucially, you couldn’t then use the normal 61-seat majority assumption.
128 requires 65.
That’s potentially very important in a close National/ACT/NZF versus Labour/Green/TPM/TOP election because both sides could generate overhangs simultaneously.
This will be the Culture War Election of overhangs and echo chambers.
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Bomber. You are counting in TOP but its not certain that they will join the alternative coalition. The right will make concessions obviously to bring them onside. Or in a tight parliament TOP could stay on the crossbenches without joining any coalition should they find they will not be able to achieve the policies people who support them with their vote will expect.
This from Idiot Savant
” I have a lot of problems with TOP. Their origins as the vehicle for rich prick Gareth Morgan’s political ideas around taxation and UBI. Their past arsehole behaviour under both Morgan and later leaders. Their undemocratic and completely top-down party structure. Their dodgy techbro funders. I also have some problems with their political philosophy – a naive-to-arrogant technocratic rationalism which fails to consider or simply does not think it is important that other people might not see their conclusions as “obvious”, or might even disagree with them, and so struggles to deal with that fact. I’m somewhat sympathetic here, because you need idealists in any productive political coalition, to drive things forward – but TOP’s demonstrated inability to cope when their ideas met opposition in the past (see: TOP 2017 and the Gareth Morgan / Sean Plunket shitshow) is not a good sign, and suggests a party culture problem as well.
Fundamentally, it comes down to one simple fact: I do not know these people. Not in a personal sense – I don’t hang around with politicians – but in the sense that without a demonstrated track record, I do not know if they are serious about their policies, and I do not know what their values are.
And then there’s the big one: coalition options. Or, as we say in Aotearoa, “who are they going to go with?” TOP leader Qiulae Wong says “anyone”, and if you’re on the left and want to see the regime toppled, its policies repealed, and the earth salted, that is absolutely an issue. Why would I give my vote to someone who might keep the racist, tyrannical, election rigging pricks in power? Why would I risk that, when I can give it to a party who absolutely won’t? So that’s an absolute deal-breaker for me (and if you don’t want the regime toppled, why are you reading this blog?)
https://norightturn.blogspot.com/2026/08/why-im-not-voting-for-opportunity.html