The Election is just the first hurdle for the Left, the negotiations are where we truly fight

This is the culture war election of Echo Chamber Overhang.

There is no middle, just polarised extremes whipped up by social media hate algorithms.

The winner will be who turns out their own base, not the one wasting resources to appease the middle.

For the Left that means getting to 51% in an election shaped by Overhangs.

The National Overhang + TPM Underhang will mean that 4 parties will be required to gain 51%.

That’s either National + ACT + NZF + TOP or Labour + Greens + TPM + TOP.

I think the election will be so close that we won’t know the Government on Election night. It will require the Specials 20 days later to know for sure who has won what.

For the Left this election, winning 51% is step one.

Negotiating the policy platform is step 2.

Currently the Incremental Mandarins of Wellington have kept Labour a small target and Chippy has shot down everything.

IF TOP, TPM and Greens adopt a united negotiating front however, Labour will have no choice but to move.

This is where John Tamihere shines.

He has the backbone to carry TOP, Green AND TPM aspirations and is the only one capable of moving Labour.

Winning the election is the first step, negotiating a real transformative agenda using. united front tactic is the second.