The 20 days between Election and final results will be the most extreme in NZ Political History
National will lose about 40 electorates and gain a sub 27% Party vote, that will at least generate an Overhang of between 6 to 8 seats while seeing ACT and NZF in double digits.
Labour keep chasing a centrist voter who no longer exist in a social media hate algorithm culture. The winner turns out their base as tactically as they can. They donβt water down their appeal to their base by chasing centrist voters any longer. The plummeting purple vote proves that.
The Overhang TPM generates will mean that whatever side wins 51% will require 4 Political Parties.
I donβt think we will know the result of the election on the 7th November, we will have to wait until the Specials come in on the 27th meaning those 3 weeks between Election night and the final result will be the most contested in NZ history.
Huge money will be spent arguing TOP must cut a deal with National, ACT and NZF. If the Left are not ready to battle the media war that will erupt for those 3 weeks, we will be swallowed up and spat out by Big Money interests setting the agenda.
The 20 days between Election and final results will be the most extreme in NZ Political History.
Independent Media is more important than ever, especially in the lead up to the Election. TDB is the largest Left Wing Blog in NZ and we have been operating for 13 years. We get zero funding from NZonAir and we donβt have no rich backers. If you can donate please do so here or directly into our account β12-3065-0133561-56
TOP has been around awhile, but it picked up speed and got serious in response to this govt. didn’t it? Once it also had a very photogenic front person, it has to be said, interest grew hugely.
Assuming TOP wants to see the demise of the present govt, not the right entirely, just this govt., surely they wouldn’t go into coalition with the rag-tag remnants that survive after the election.
They know Luxon will try to drive a harder bargain next time even in his reduced circumstances, because his last effort is still a major embarrassment for a wheeler-dealer like himself. That leaves very little for TOP if the other 2 right parties are vying for larger slices of the pie.
Won’t they go where they are needed most and be able to get a better deal for themselves from people who need to acknowledge them?
Chris ( Neoliberalism! ? What you talkin’ ’bout Willis ? ) hipkins is ‘earning’ $311,100.00 PA and no doubt plus entitlements and expenses. Are you?
luxon’s on $520,000.00 PA and all he has to do is grin and bare it.
https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/02/20/an-antisocial-blowback-on-luxons-social-media/
If National et al get to the negotiating stage with TOP then they will be absolute ‘hypocrites’ as Luxon has REPEATEDLY SAID he will NOT negotiate with them! He will also ‘promise’ whatever he needs to to go back in β but as we ALL know these lies/promises again will not stack up, but our ‘Christian PM’ won’t give a damn β like his comments on the homeless, hidden away, but still sleeping in the streets! Labour needs to rethink about chasing the centrist vote. They must remember they are primarily there for the workers. So Hipkins, concentrate on that group by door-knocking and making sure every eligible person votes! Yesterday, John Key warned against strategic voting, so do hope the Mowbrays have heard this and will stop their meddling! NZ mustn’t allow βbig moneyβ to dictate their election or how to run our country. We all know they are mostly in there for their own selfish interests and MORE wealth! How can these people be so damned GREEDY while so many others can barely make ends meet?