Christopher’s Ratings Resurrection Reshuffle: Rewarding the inner circle and throwing the dregs overboard.
Yesterday, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced his plan for 2025 – which he summarised in a long tweet that began:
“2025 is all about a doubled-down focus on economic growth and – as part of that fresh focus – today I’ve announced a refreshed team to drive our economic growth plan.”
On the one hand, economic growth seems like an excellent focus, but I’m a bit confused about the difference between fresh and refreshed.
Are we getting someone new with double the focus, as if they’re squinting hard into the distance, or is this a refresh, which sounds more like reheating leftovers than a new recipe?
One thing immediately apparent was that if anyone had told Luxon to ease back on the meaningless gobbledyspeak over the summer, he clearly hadn’t listened.
The double-good refresh, our economic messiah, was none other than Nicola Willis. She is now being given even more power, presumably as a reward for her stellar work on the budget and the ferries. Ah, how’s the meritocracy?
Perhaps I’m not very good at thinking outside the box. Personally, I wouldn’t have picked the person who steered us into an austerity-driven downturn and increased economic uncertainty, resulting in large-scale job losses and business closures, as the obvious choice to drive an economic growth plan. However, it is reassuring to hear that they have one. Maybe they could show it to us.
The PM’s tweet continued:
“Health is also a priority. Off the back of Simeon Brown’s performance in transport and local government, I’ve decided his skills are best placed to take leadership of our health system so you and your family are waiting less in the emergency department for a GP appointment or for surgery.”
So, Reti’s reward for fronting so much BS is getting canned. And Simeon Brown is the person who can fix healthcare. Yeah Right!
Christopher Luxon had brainstormed over the summer, seeking a sacrifice to maintain the illusion of progress, and decided that the Māori guy was the one to go.
On Saturday, he called the incumbent, Dr. Reti, to inform him of his impending demotion. Then, yesterday, he told the nation that a change to Simeon Brown would result in lower waiting times in A&E, to see a doctor, or to receive surgery. There was no information on how this would be accomplished; presumably, with Simeon’s magnetic personality on board, things will just magically get better.
I imagine Minister Brown will demand more from existing staffing, set up monitoring systems and metrics, and create an overhead of reporting that will result in no improvements and worsen morale in the health workforce. Still, if it all goes pear-shaped, at least they have “Plan B”—flog it off to private enterprise.
A great short-term way of funding improvements. Selling out generations of Kiwis who will be obliged to provide the sector with profits.
As awful as Reti might have been, it’s a grim thought that Simeon Brown, whose career before politics was in banking, is seen as a better option to run Health than a Doctor.
Luxon said that Reti retained his confidence, which is an odd thing to say about someone you’ve just sacked and demoted from fourth to ninth in the cabinet rankings. It makes you wonder what he’d do to someone he’d actually lost confidence in.
Beneath a post I made on this, Doris commented: “I just thought, well, that’s the first trophy Maori gone. Made it look good for a year, I guess. Next.” Along similar lines, Stephsaid, “Disgusting. Openly racist. Used Reti as cover for cancelling the Māori health authority. Now chucked aside. Rearranging chairs on the Titanic.”
Julian noted that we were getting “Out of the frying pan into the fire”, while Jack was worried whether Simeon’s appointment might be premature, saying, “I’d wait til he could tie his own shoelaces myself ….”
Michelle was concerned about Luxon’s choice of words when he described what Simeon would do in the health sector as – “ruthlessly execute”.
Lorraine hit the nail on the head, saying, “The problem with Reti is that he is a rotten liar. Anytime he has to tell porkies, he feels bad inside, and it shows. Lying is essential for success in this government, especially in the health portfolio. Simeon Brown will deliver National and Act’s desired outcomes more successfully.”
The first thing I wondered when I heard the news was whether Reti had jumped or been pushed.
You could understand if he’d had a guts full of fronting things that made him look physically ill while doing so. Maybe he didn’t have the stomach for another couple of years of that and then having to defend their track record in the run-up to an election.
Or maybe he finally reached his limit. Given some of the things Luxon and Levy probably have in mind for the Health sector, he finally said enough is enough and took a stand, refusing to oversee whatever profit extraction plans they have.
I suspect I’m giving the good doctor far too much credit. In any case, the front bench is pretty white without Reti; his demotion means there are no Māori ministers inside Luxon’s top eight. Not that that will bother National, as they’re all about meritocracy.
Meritocracy:A system whereby any attempts at diversity are greeted with outrage, and the white guy gets the job.
All of which means that we get utterly baffling promotions, like this one…
Ladies and Gentlemen, raise your glasses. Today, Andrew Bayly was promoted in Luxon’s reshuffle. Think about that.
How is that meritocracy? More importantly, what sort of message is the government sending about bullying and workplace drunkenness by promoting a man who was in the headlines for all the wrong reasons in 2024?
Bayly is taking over ACC, I guess with the belief that much like setting a thief to catch a thief, the best person to help avoid workplace accidents is someone who is basically one waiting to happen.
Maurice came over all musical, commenting on the promotion of the Minister for telling workers they’re losers while sailing three sheets to the wind:
“It’s time to play the music
It’s time to light the lights
It’s time to meet the Muppets on the Muppet Show tonight
It’s time to put on makeup
It’s time to dress up right
It’s time to raise the curtain on the Muppet Show tonight.”
Image: BeFunky.
Baron said, “It’s called failing upwards. It’s what happens when incompetent people want to surround themselves with people even more incompetent than them to distract from how truly incompetent they are. Happens all the time in business.”
Perhaps we’ve finally found something that Luxon is good at.
After hearing the news, I looked up young Simeon’s background to see what hidden talents might have made him such an obvious choice for Luxon in this toughest of roles. I wasn’t overly excited by what I found…
Are you concerned that our new Minister of Health was the president of the anti-abortion group ProLife Auckland at university?
Yeah, so it turns out that Simeon Brown was the president of Auckland University’s anti-abortion group. On top of that, we know that he has repeatedly opposed women having the right to choose, including voting against all three stages of the Abortion Legislation Bill, which sought to bring our law books up to date.
National obviously didn’t consider this a problem, but I imagine it won’t sit entirely comfortably with others.
Tee said, “A particularly dangerous, right-wing position, and he’s wet behind the ears on all the issues out there in the REAL World.”
Alba added, “Shattering – I am truly worried about the future under this government. I don’t need this man to tell me how to manage my own body.”
My nearly-neighbour Penny said, “I am shaking my head and getting ready for activism.”
Jan summed up the situation with her comment:
“I’m concerned that the new health minister doesn’t have a clue….he is NOT the right person for the job any more than Reti was. The ‘reckless execution’ will be to cut or privatise…. bowel screening, mammogram screening, cancer drugs, cervical screening, etc., etc., etc….and a new portfolio for Willis as she tightens the purse strings even further.
These new appointments are getting more frightening by the minute, especially for our growing population who can’t access the health system and drugs they need. Don’t book a pandemic any time soon, will you? I am truly wondering what planet Luxon is on…..planet Atlas?”
To be fair to Luxon, the ministers who are probably keeping him awake at night are the ones he can’t touch…
“No changes to ACT and NZ First ministerial roles” – so keep up the good work, Casey Costello.
Incredibly, after a year in which she made the Prime Minister look like a fool, forcing him to back her claims of evidence that turned out to be Tobacco industry hokum, and assisted that same industry in making more money from New Zealanders, Associate Minister of Health Casey Costello has remarkably kept her job.
Let’s be honest: for NZ First ministers like Costello or Shane Jones, no amount of making everyday Kiwis go WTAF will ever result in them being held accountable for their performance or what look suspiciously like acts of corruption.
Christopher is over a barrel. As Les said, “Luxon wouldn’t dare; he’s only Prime Minister in name. Winston and Seymour have all the power.”
Flotsam and Jettisoned
Some further miscellaneous changes…
Chris Bishop – Minister of Transport
With Simeon taking on health, Chris Bishop gets Transport, which is no real change. Like Simeon, Bishop has never met a cycleway or public transport option he liked. The two men even look the same if you add about 30 years of booze, ciggies, and fast food to the Sunday School lad.
Melissa Lee – Minister of Nothing
Melissa Lee was chucked out of the cabinet, so I guess they can make some claims of acting on merit. It is hard to imagine a less effective performance than Lee’s time overseeing the culling of the media industry she was supposed to assist.
It has been a while now, and I should probably let Melissa’s bullying of Clare Curran go. National certainly did, and such behaviour obviously wasn’t a factor here. To be honest, it doesn’t seem like the sort of thing they’d discourage.
It is fair to say that I was not displeased by the demotion of Melissa Lee.
Mark Mitchell – Minister of Ethnic Affairs
Mark Mitchell, perhaps the whitest white man in the history of white men, picks up ethnic affairs. I guess when you’re demoting all the non-pakeha in the cabinet, it’s hard to do anything else.
Plus, I’m sure Mitchell learned about dealing with different communities during his time overseas. I’m just not sure that the interactions of a mercenary make for relevant experience for this role. Not unless he’s planning to change things up a bit.
“Nick Rockel is a left wing writer who spent far too long working in IT and now writes “Nick’s Kōrero”. An almost daily substack of political satire, news, and views, from Aotearoa New Zealand. He lives in West Auckland, and has 5 kids, 2 dogs, and 1 wife. He Substacks here.
Tama Potaka is replacing half of the Waitangi Tribunal’s members, including senior academics.
Former blogger Philip Crump and former Defence Minister Ron Mark are among new appointments to Waitangi Tribunal.
These changes are just the start for the Tribunal. The Government is promising to “refocus” its scope and purpose.
Totally coward move by Minister Potaka to gut the Waitangi Tribunal and fill it with hateful rednecks.
Appointing Mad Dog Press was a slap in the face, but appointing a toxic right wing leprechaun like Ron Mark is like asking Sean Plunkett to head TVNZ and appointing a far right hate blogger like Philip Crumb who is a redneck from the ZB Troll farm highlights the hollow arseholes National are stacking every board with.
To place such hateful rednecks onto offical boards is like appointing arsonists to the fire department.
Sliding this news out late on a Friday afternoon in the hope no one will notice just highlights what. gutless nothing Minister Potaka has become.
This is a move designed to damage the Waitangi Tribunal and stack it with redneck fuckwits.
If you aren’t disgusted by the naked racism of the Right then you agree to it and you are to blame.
Kiwis should be ashamed by this latest move.
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At the start of 2025, the most important battle being fought in the Ukraine War is the one to influence President Trump. On 21 January, the new president will be inaugurated and both sides are committed to shaping his opinion because their policy will shape the course of the war. The new administration determining whether Ukraine is drawn into a long, grinding war of attrition supported only by its European allies; or whether America provides enough support to defeat Putin’s aggression.
Russia is maintaining its ‘full court’ press, burning through casualties at an incredible rate trying to maintain forward progress on the battlefield. Aiming to demonstrate strength, and the will to win at any cost. Ukraine’s soldiers on the other hand, are fighting a defensive battle in Donetsk, inflicting casualties on Russia while simultaneously striking hard elsewhere aiming to demonstrate that Ukraine can defeat Russia.
In the air, both sides continue to batter each other’s war-fighting infra-structure. Ukraine maintaining its long-range drone and missile attacks on Russia’s oil production facilities, military command and logistics hubs, A massive wave of drone and missile strikes on 14 January, destroying oil facilities and a range of military targets across Russia.
Russia’s air campaign continues to target Ukraine’s civilian infra-structure with regular drone and missile strikes on cities and power infra-structure. An especially large attack was launched on Christmas Day with approximately 70 missiles and 100 drones crossing the border into Ukraine. It is clear that Russia is maintaining pressure on civilians in Ukraine, these attacks designed to make the population as cold and uncomfortable as possible. A noteworthy point is the use of Ukraine’s own long-range missile, the ‘Neptune.’ Ukraine’s increasing use of these missiles demonstrates that the nation has a long-range strike capability regardless of future US support.
The operational-level situation
Russia’s main effort continues to be Pokrovsk, their aim is to capture the city and dominate transport route through area, and create base from which to campaign for control of the remainder of Donbas. Pokrovsk is near a set of important road and rail connections, and sits on high ground that dominates a large area, so it is a useful stepping stone on the path to capturing the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
The struggle for Pokrovsk, is the essence of this campaign with Russia committing forces in Donetsk to outflank and envelop the town. While Ukraine attacks Russia’s flank in Kursk, trying to make Russia move soldiers away from Pokrovsk and reduce Russia’s ability to take the town. But from Ukraine’s perspective the battle in Donetsk is not about land, it is about attrition. Ukraine defending key towns, using the advantages of defence to destroy Russian equipment and inflict casualties, but conserving its own forces by withdrawing them before they are destroyed. The attack in Kursk contributes to the plan by drawing Russian forces away from Donetsk, reducing Russia’s offensive effectiveness and increasing Ukraine’s local combat power.
Ukraine’s successful attack in Kursk on 5 January received lots of media coverage. At tactical-level the attack was successful, Ukrainian forces advancing and expanding the territory they hold near Sudzha. This town is Ukraine’s base for operations in Kursk, and at tactical-level the operation clearly contributes to holding the town.
However, media coverage inflated the significance of this attack. Initial reporting indicated a more serious attack. This operation is noteworthy though because it demonstrates; Ukraine’s ability to conduct offensive operations and its desire to hold ground in the Kursk region. But the attack is not operationally significant, being similar in size and progress to many Russian attack and did not influence the wider campaign.
Further south, Russia’s attack on Pokrovsk is developing as predicted. (See – Trump fires the first shots in possible negotiations, is the end-game starting? ) The Russians choose not to attack the city through the wide bowl of open ground immediately to its east, instead they manoeuvred far to the south using a wide left flanking approach. This axis of attack allows them to approach through broken ground (ridge lines, waterways and woodland) that provides cover for their movement.
The areas surrounding Pokrovsk are also contested. Russian forces continue to attack Kurakhove, Toretsk and Chasiv Yar but since the last article none of this activity has produced an operational-level change in situation.
What can we expect next at operational-level?
It is important to look beyond the ‘lines on the map’ when analysing a military campaign. At this stage, Russia is capturing ground but the operational-level campaign appears to be developing in-line with Ukrainian strategy. In February 2024, when General Oleksandr Syrskyi took command of Ukrainian forces, he was clear that Ukraine’s intent was inflicting attrition on Russian forces. He stated that Ukraine would switch to a defensive phase of operations, forcing Russia to attack and using the advantages of defence to maximise Russian casualties.
Even Ukraine’s attack in Kursk contributes to the overall objective of forcing Russia into costly offensive operations. Rather than being able to achieve overwhelming force in Donetsk, Russia has had to deploy soldiers to Kursk to contain, then attack the Ukrainian salient. This slows down their advance in Donetsk and creates opportunities to attrit Russian forces sent to repel the Ukrainian incursion.
Although Russia is capturing ground, all ground is not equal. And, in this war the small towns sitting on high ground are the key terrain. Urban areas with solidly constructed apartment blocks and factories that become strong points, dominating surrounding road and rail junctions. Places like Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Pokrovsk. And Russia is losing enormous amounts of men and equipment with limited success taking these pieces of key terrain.
During the next few weeks, while the new administration settles into the Whitehouse, we should expect to see the campaign increase in intensity. The most important area is around Pokrovsk, where Russia is currently building towards an attack from the south. Therefore, expect a large attack on Pokrovsk probably in the next few weeks. The attack timed to influence US policy, a demonstration that the Russia has offensive capacity and can defeat Ukraine. Attacking from this direction their assault force can use broken ground to advance with a degree of concealment.
The attack on Pokrovsk is likely to follow the pattern we have seen in Avdiivka and Bakhmut, a long slow attack supported by artillery and airpower. As the attack on Pokrovsk develops we should also expect more pressure on Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and the areas around these towns as Russia seeks to control ground to envelop Kramatorsk and Sloviansk from the south.
Russia will also seek to maintain pressure north of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, so expect more fighting along the Oskil River near Kupyansk and near Lyman. If Russia can advance on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk from both north and south it is easier to envelop the cities, cut supply lines and starve the defence.
A key aim of Russian operations in the next few weeks will be to influence the new president by presenting the war in Ukraine as a forgone conclusion, one that US aid cannot influence.
And, what about the new White House?
The key unanswerable question is what President Trump’s policy towards Ukraine will be, and at this stage there is little firm information about his position. Already Presidents Putin and Zelensky are bargaining. Putin appears to be trying to ‘play hardball,’ while Zelensky is a ‘building bridges’ by meeting with President Trump and toning down his rhetoric allowing for compromise positions.
At this stage we can speculate based on three factors likely to influence US policy:
President Trump’s key security appointments indicate that the new White House is likely to be focussed on competition with China. President Trump’s cabinet appointments include people like Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, regarded as ‘hawkish’ towards China. In simple terms the US has bigger security issues than Russian aggression in Europe, and the Ukraine War is a distraction. A situation, General Sir Richard Barrons a retired UK Joint Force Commander summarised in 2022 when he described the conflict with Russia as “a speed bump on the way to the trilogy of the rise of China, climate change and the digital age.” A statement that several key people in the new administration may agree with, and that mitigates towards ending the Ukraine conflict as quickly as possible. Further, competition with China is difficult even for the US, and so it needs NATO’s military, tech and economic resources.
The US has plenty of other issues to manage. As well as potentially existential threats, the US must also contend with a wide range of concerns like Middle East security issues, Iranian hostility, North Korean aggression and the rise of the BRICs nations.
Russia’s military weakness has been exposed. Prior to the Ukraine War, Russia was regarded as a first-rate military power. However, Russia’s military has consistently under-performed, suffering enormous casualties and is now running out of equipment. Further, there is evidence that Russia’s economy cannot stand the strain of the war continuing.
Taking these factors into account, it seems likely that the new White House will want to disengage quickly. And, appeasing Russia probably does not contribute to this objective. Instead, this option has a range of poor outcomes. It empowers Russia, an ally of China and it undermines European confidence in the US at a time when the US probably needs NATO resources. Additionally, there is no guarantee that withdrawing US support will force Ukraine to stop fighting, potentially creating a long, slow European war. A situation no-one wants.
Further, Russia is weak both economically and militarily, which means that US aid to Ukraine, or increased sanctions on Russia are liable to have a powerful impact. Putin’s unreasonable behaviour and irresponsible nuclear rhetoric have also damaged his relationship with China. Essentially, Putin has a weak hand, and President Trump’s advisors know that putting pressure on him will be easier than on Ukraine.
President Trump has a great deal of political capital in negotiating a quick end to the war. Therefore, my assessment is that Putin will be given an ultimatum, and if he does not accept the conditions of it US aid will flow into Ukraine.
Summary
The next few weeks will be very interesting and important. We should expect the unexpected, for instance if either side has the capability for a large offensive operation it is likely to be in the next few weeks. Likewise, we should expect to see more and heavier air attacks and threatening rhetoric as both sides aim to influence the US.
However, I believe that Russia is on the back foot, this war has demonstrated their military weakness and if the US fully mobilises its economic and military support for Ukraine Putin’s days are numbered. The question though, is whether Putin understands his weakness, and is willing to negotiate?
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack
The plunge in the first political poll of 2025 + economic down turn thanks to their austerity ideology + Trump inspired global economic carnage = promotion of bullshit right wing mythology as policy.
I am cynical of ACTs Regulatory Standards Bill, because we need MORE oversight and MORE State capacity, not less!
Allowing a Corporate Body to prevent legislation based on a narrow interpretation of property rights as the only rights creates a nightmare for democracy.
We need actual regulatory oversight and the ability to properly police that oversight by properly taxing the rich.
National are trying to respond to more mishaps caused by a lack of oversight by proposing even less oversight!
Why are we trading in the common good for laws that help their donor class interests?
The Workplace Relations Minister Brooke van Velden has announced plans to reintroduce pay deductions for partial strikes.
The Covid inflation was generated by price gouging, not Government policy!
The Cost of Living Crisis is still here despite National’s $12 a week tax cuts…
Bitching about Labour spending money to save us from a once in a century pandemic and using that to justify an Austerity Agenda to promote a deregulation platform that only helps their donors is just too venal for your average kiwi.
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She said it was a response to feedback including a “large number of emails”. Three were sent to her, while seven more were forwarded from other MPs and ministers.
Only three of those were addressed to her, while seven were sent to otherMPs and ministers who then forwarded them to McKee.
Labour’s justice spokesman Duncan Webb, who requested the emails under the Official Information Act, added many of them were from Kiwiblog readers and Act supporters, which was “hardly a representative poll”.
The number of emails made a mockery of McKee’s comment about a “large number”, he said.
This is a Minister who is so toxic and pro gun that the Police Association are begging she have nothing to do with gun legislation, she’s trying to deregulate gun clubs and wants to bring back AR-15s.
She’s now been caught out claiming she had a large number of emails demanding more punitive prison sentences when really it was just 10.
If the Left had been caught out lying like this, the Right would be screaming for resignation, yet one of theirs is caught out repeatedly promoting gun interests against the common good and not a whisper.
The Right have no moral ground if they won’t punish someone so obviously misleading the public!
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“Jobs for the boys” is how Labour leader Chris Hipkins described the Government’s appointing of former National Party ministers to important roles.
It was notable, however, that no questions were raised about their respective abilities: Sir Bill English (reviewing Kāinga Ora), StevenJoyce (advising on the new infrastructure agency), Simon Bridges (chair of NTZA), Paula Bennett (chair of Pharmac), Murray McCully (reviewing school buildings), and Roger Sowry (reviewing the ferries).
Hipkins’ main criticism was that it happened as thousands of public servants were losing their jobs at the same time.
But one appointee was a former minister who never made the front bench: David Bennett. While there’s nothing to suggest that proper process wasn’t followed, documents released to the Herald revealed his lack of relevant experience for one of the two roles he was given, though Bennett told the Herald he had a mix of other skills and experience.
All these buggers have skin in various games and they are appointed to get a specific result, Bill English was given money supposed to go on emergency housing to put together a proposal for his Daughter’s company to effectively run the entire welfare state.
So let’s not pretend it isn’t very tactical to get a result that benefits their interests mates rather than the common good.
The manner in which a right wing political blogger conspiracy theorist has been appointed to the Waitangi Tribunal aside Mad Dog Prebs highlights the total contempt National has to the entire civil society infrastructure!
Let’s not forget appointing an Israeli apologist to the Human Rights Commission!
We are watching a Government appointing mates to implement policy that directly benefits their Donors interests.
How pissed off at Jacinda are you to allow these rich pricks to make us their puppets?
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All in all, TDB gives punters a very, very, very wide space to comment in but we won’t bother with out right lies or gleeful malice. We leave that to the Herald comment section.
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Attacks:There are no safe places for the militarily-dominated population in Gaza, who find themselves subjected to airstrikes and other missile attackson buildings, homes and many essentialfacilities,as well as constant gunfire and invasions by Israeli forces.The Israeli Navy continues to fire missiles, targeting facilities and buildings along the entire Gaza shoreline.
Victims:23more people have been killedwithin the past 48 hours, bringing the total number killed in Gaza since 7 October2023to at least46,899. Another 83have been wounded, bringing that total to 110,725. The daily average number of men, women and children killed in Gaza is at least 99and,thatof those injured, is nowmore than236.
Gaza has become a killing field—that is the view of a well-informed Israeli veteran who was an enthusiastic supporter of the initial Israeli response to the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023.What began as a retaliatory war by the internationally revered Israel Defence Forces against a disciplined Hamas guerrilla force turned into the systematic starvation of a society whose civilian survivors—men, women, and children—are the victims of an Israeli military whose combat units are often led by the second generation of Israeli settlers. These officers, increasingly prominent as the war in Gaza goes on, are religious zealot majors and lieutenant colonels who believe it is their calling to shoot and kill any Palestinian who moves, whether combatant or civilian.
There are more than 120 Israeli settlements in the West Bank, including fifteen in East Jerusalem. There are also more than two hundred illegal outposts that are supplied with weapons by the increasingly radical Israeli government while not officially sanctioned by that government. Violence against Palestinians in the West Bank has grown steadily, including Israeli Air Force bombing missions.
The IDF recruiting pattern explains the growing violence against Palestinian men, women, and children in the war. I was told that 40 to 45 percent of today’s higher officers in the IDF come from settler families in the West Bank who combine “deep religiosity with Netanyahu’s political fervour.’’ The Israeli veteran told me of watching in horror, with colleagues, as Israeli bombings and earth-moving machinery were continuing to, as he put it, “level” north Gaza and turn it into a dead zone. He said that there “have been more and more reports of colonels and even generals issuing orders to kill every Palestinian you see and destroy every building still standing. Israel’s war in Gaza has become fanatical.
He was referring to a devastating article published in December by Haaretz, the liberal Israeli daily that is under increasing attack by the Netanyahu administration. The article focused on the Netzarim Corridor, once a narrow partially paved road separating north and south Gaza that has since the 10/7 attack been expanded by the IDF into a two-and-a-half-mile wide safe zone that runs the entire four-mile width of the Gaza Strip. Hundreds of nearby buildings, including a hospital, were bulldozed to clear space for the IDF. The zone is commanded by more than a few officers who, Haaretz reported, routinely order IDF soldiers to execute Gazans, including those who come with children in tow, seeking food and safety. Read whole article:
Seymour Hersh is an American investigative journalist and political writer. He gained recognition in 1969 for exposing the My Lai massacre and its cover-up during the Vietnam War, for which he received the 1970 Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting.
Since midnight on 07 October 2023, Occupation forces have been imposing a complete closure around the whole of the West Bank, preventingpeople(including even permit– holders) from entering both Jerusalem Cityas well as Israel, otherwise than for especially–negotiated exceptions. Permanent military checkpoints impose severe travel restrictions within the Occupied West Bank.
Israeli Army attack:Jenin – 17:00, Israeli Occupation forces, firing live ammunition, stormed and patrolled the village of Arbouna.
Israeli Army attack– 1 wounded: Nablus – 21:10, Israeli forces, firing live ammunition, stormed the town of Sebastia, wounding a resident:Izz al-Din Ahmed al-Shaer.
Home invasion: Jerusalem – 13:00, Israeli Occupation forces raided the town of Anata and invaded a home.
Home invasion: Tubas – 22:30, Israeli forces raided the village of al-Far’aand searched a house.
Israeli Army–abduction of youngster – 3 adults taken prisoner:Jerusalem – 12:00, Israeli Occupation forces abducted a 17-year-old youth, Ibrahim Bilal Taha, in the Shuafat Refugee Campand took prisoner three other residents.
Israeli Army– stun grenades fired:Jerusalem – 00:30, Israeli forces fired stun grenades at people, in the village of al-Issawiya.
Israeli Army– beatings-up and hospitalisation:Ramallah – 19:20, the Israeli Army beat-up two people, Ali Muhammad Abu Naim and Rabi’ Abu Naim, in the Khalayel area, south of al-Mughayir village, hospitalising them with severe fractures and bruising.
Israeli Army– population–control:Ramallah – entrance to Ein Yabrud village leading to Route 60, closed.
Israeli Army– population–control:Tulkarem – main entrance to the town of Beit Lid, closed – western and southern entrances to the village of Shufa, closed.
Israeli Army– population–control –rubber-coated bullets and stun grenades fired:Qalqiliya – 13:00, Israeli troops fired rubber-coated bullets and stun grenades at people protesting against restrictions of entry and exit to the village of Kafr Qaddum.
Israeli Army– population–control:Qalqiliya – 01:20, entrance to the village of Nabi Elias, closed for a time.
Israeli Army– population–control:Bethlehem – entrance to the town of Beit Fajjar, closed – western entrance to the town of Tuqu, closed – entrance to the town of Janata, closed – Qabr Hilweh junction, east of the city of Beit Sahour, closed.
Israeli Army– population–control:Hebron – theIsraeli military continued with the closure of Farsh al-Hawa, entrance – the entrance to the Fahs area, south of Hebron, the Qalqas roundabout,south of Hebron, the southern entrance to Sa’ir, the eastern entrance to Duraas well as the entrances to Idhna, al-Dhahiriya and the al-Fawar refugee camp.
Israeli Army– population–control: Hebron – 20:15, Israeli soldiers closed,for a time,the main entrance to Beit Kahil.
Occupation settler arson and violence:Ramallah – Israeli Occupation settlers terrorised farmers working their land, north of Shuqba village, and set fire to a farm vehicle.
Occupation settler stoning: Ramallah – Israeli settlers, in Turmusaya,stoned a vehicle with a person inside, shattering the windows.
Occupation settler land-grab: Tubas – 08:45, Occupation settlers seized an area of land,in the Khirbet Humsa districtof the North Jordan Valley,and carried out excavation work for the setting–up of a settlement outpost there.
Occupation settler arson – agricultural sabotage: Tulkarem – 14:00, Israeli settlers invaded Kafr Aboush agricultural landand set fire to a bulldozer.
Occupation settler land-grab – agricultural sabotage: Nablus – 09:10, Israeli Occupation settlers invaded and bulldozed land, in the village of Naqoura, and laid the foundations for theestablishment of a new settlement outpost and park in the area.
Occupation settler land-grab – agricultural sabotage: Nablus –12:10, Occupation settlers placed a mobile home on land,north of the town of Qusra, and closed the road leading to local agriculture.
Occupation settler agricultural sabotage: Salfit – 11:40, Israeli settlers felledaround 100olive trees, on Yasuf village land.
Occupation settler invasion:Jericho – dawn, Israeli Occupation settlers raided and occupied the grounds of the Arab Al-Malihat community‘s Al-Ka’abneh Elementary School, in the al-Ma’arjat area, north–west of the city.
Occupation settler plunder – pastoral sabotage: Jericho – evening, Israeli settlers,invading Arab al-Maliha community land, plundered the area of 53–head of sheep.
Occupation settler violence: Jericho – 21:00, Occupation settlers beat-up a man, Khader Afana, along the al-Ma’arjat Road.
Occupation settler violence: Hebron – an Israeli Occupation settlement shepherd assaulted a person, while releasing his sheep on landplanted with olive trees in the al-Masafer area, east of Yatta.
Raid– 3 taken prisoner:Jerusalem – 01:00, Israeli Occupation forces raided al-Eizariya, taking prisoner three people.
Raid:Ramallah – 12:40, Israeli forces raided and patrolled the village of Beit Lilo.
Raid: Ramallah – 14:30, the Israeli Army raided and patrolled the town of Silwad.
Raid–on refugee camp: Ramallah – 23:40, Israeli troops raided and patrolled the Jalazoun refugee camp.
Raid: Ramallah – 00:50, the Israeli military raided and patrolled the village of Kharbatha al-Misbah.
Raid: Ramallah – 03:00, Israeli soldiers again raided and patrolled the town of Silwad.
Raids: Jenin – 16:50, Israeli Occupation forces raided and patrolled the villages of Taybeh, Rumana, Zububa, Anin and Ti’inik.
Raids: Jenin – 17:00, Israeli forces raided the villages of Jalameh, Arranah, Deir Ghazaleh and Faqua.
Raid: Jenin – 22:40, the Israeli Army raided and patrolled the town of Ya’bad.
Raids: Tulkarem – 16:40, Israeli troops raided and patrolled the villages of Kafr Abbush, Kafr Zibad and Kafr Jamal.
Raid: Tulkarem – 18:00, the Israeli military raided and patrolled the city.
Raids: Tulkarem – 21:05, Israeli soldiers raided and patrolled the villages of Izbit Shufa and Farun.
Raid: Tulkarem – 07:35, Israeli Occupation forces raided and patrolled the town of Quffin.
Raids: Qalqiliya – 10:45, Israeli forces raided and patrolled the villages of Baqa al-Hatab, Kafr Laqif and Hajja.
Raid: Qalqiliya – 12:10, the Israeli Army raided and patrolled the village of Beit Amin.
Raid–surveillance: Qalqiliya – 14:20, Israeli troops raided the village of Beit Amin,as well as the Council‘sHeadquarters to search surveillance–camera recordings.
Raid–surveillance: Qalqiliya – 16:10, the Israeli military raided the village of Izbit Salman and examined a number of shop surveillance-camera recordings.
Raid: Qalqiliya – 16:15, Israeli soldiers raided and patrolled the town of Jayus.
Raid: Qalqiliya – 16:15, Israeli Occupation forces raided and patrolled the city.
Raids: Nablus – 11:10, Israeli forces raided and patrolled Aqraba as well as the village of Osirin.
Raid–population–control: Nablus – 12:30, the Israeli Army raided the town of Beita, firing stun grenades at people protesting against land-seizure for Occupation settlement projects.
Raids: Nablus – 13:25, Israeli troops raided and patrolled the villages of Jalloud and Qaryut.
Raid: Nablus – 19:05, the Israeli military raided and patrolled the village of Awarta.
Raids: Nablus – 21:05, Israeli soldiers raided and patrolled Beit Furik,as well as the village of Beit Dajan.
Raid: Nablus – 06:35, Israeli Occupation forces again raided and patrolled the village of Qaryut.
Raids: Salfit – 00:50, Israeli forces raided and patrolled the towns of Bruqin and Kafr al-Dik.
Raid: Bethlehem – 10:35, the Israeli Army raided and patrolled the town of al-Khadr.
Raids: Bethlehem – 13:45, Israeli troops raided and patrolled the town of Beit Fajjar,as well as the villages of Umm Salmuna and Abu Nujaym.
Raid–1 take prisoner: Bethlehem – 14:10, the Israeli military raided the town of Tuqu, taking prisoner one person.
Raid: Bethlehem – 15:55, Israeli soldiers raided and patrolled the town of Janata.
Raid: Hebron – 10:10, Israeli Occupation forces raided and patrolled the town of Bani Naim.
Raid: Hebron – 10:30, Israeli forces raided and patrolled the town of Sa’ir.
Raid: Hebron – 16:45, the Israeli Army raided the town of Dura.
Raid: Hebron – 17:40, Israeli troops raided and patrolled the city.
Raid–abduction: Hebron – 00:30, the Israeli military raided the town of Idhna and abducted a 16-year-old youth, Moataz Ahmed Khalil Al-Batran, as well as taking prisoner three other residents.
Raid:Hebron – 01:50, Israeli soldiers raided and patrolled the town of Yatta.
Raid: Hebron – 05:00, Israeli Occupation forces raided and patrolled the town of Dura.
If Simeon Brown as Health Minister is the answer what the Christ was the question???
Our new Minister of Health was president of anti-abortion group, ProLife Auckland, at University FFS!
National are in so much trouble and the first political poll of the year spells that out and in a move of desperation, Luxon throws the luckless Dr Shane Reti under the bus for the massive political headache public health has become BECAUSE OF NATIONAL’S HEALTH BUDGET CUTS!
Remember:
The crisis in health funding is a manufactured one!
In the Budget, National allocated just 2.9% increase to health services but inflation was 3.3% and population growth 2.6% while an ageing population adds more to costs.
National gave 2.9% for health but we needed 8% to stand still, is the electorate dumb enough to fall for National’s latest manufactured public service crisis to introduce more failed free market reforms?
The Finance Minister says we can’t afford $1.4billion for health but we could borrow $14billion for tax cuts?
Is the electorate dumb enough to believe this?
I don’t think people appreciate just how radical our neoliberal reforms were to public services and no where can you see the grim truth of throwing out egalitarianism and progressive fairness for money and profit margins better than this brilliant Stuff article that highlights the terrible legacy of fucking over our public health system.
Look at these stats and gasp in horror at what we have wrought…
…people claim this can’t be true, but the facts stack it up and it is true.
We have progressively decreased taxing the richest to fund out public services until the public services fall over and the public scream ‘something must be done’ and the Right ‘here’s something’ and they privatise a little more and you get even less.
Believing Simeon bloody Brown is the solution to this manufactured crisis in public health is not serious politics!
Simeon Brown is currently raising speed limits around schools to ‘lift productivity’ FFS!
His literal Christian Faith creates a level of self belief utterly at odds with his actual talent and has only met expectations because he’s 4foot 11 and looks 14 years old!
The Kiwi public are only now waking up to his plan to weaponise our impatience (thanks to roading gridlock) by quietly privatising the roading network.
If sneaking road tolls and congestion prices while slashing public transport subsidies past sleepy hobbits who are triggered every time they see a cyclist is considered ‘competence’ in National, Chris Luxon is in more trouble than were have realised.
Making Simeon Brown the Health Minister is an act of desperation.
It’s ‘Bring your grandson to work day’
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A cascade of perfect storms will bring a flock of Black Swans that will lack the global leadership to de-escalate.
The planet is burning, failed states are collapsing, the global economy will be anaemic and we will face existential threats from AI, solar flares and pandemics.
It’s like all Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse plus their mates, whanau members and Instagram Followers all combining to make every month worse than the previous.
There are so many destabilising factors that could plunge large parts of the planet into a series of Polycrisis that it is difficult to be optimistic.
Trump will be the trigger for much of it.
Here are TDBs International Predictions for 2025.
Trump’s United States of Wounded Masculinity:
“So this is how democracy dies, with thunderous applause, Hulk Hogan and Kid Rock”
Since Covid ruptured supply chains and geopolitical tensions changed just-in-time supply chains to just-in-case supply chains, the West has been importing inflation.
This has caused price gouging by Price Makers and crushed the working classes with a cost of living crisis.
Trump’s election risks the beginning of an escalation that risks flocks of Black Swans.
To date we have been told by Trump’s defenders that his wild and mad proclamations are all the spin of a deal maker negotiating the best deal with the worst threats, and certainly the Art of the Deal is just a how to guide for Alpha Jock Dickheads doing Alpha Male Jock Dickhead stunts.
Taking offence at some unrelated issue and causing a Tantrum for emotional leverage to get the best deal you can isn’t Art or a Deal, it’s Alpha Male Jock Dickhead bully behaviour that has all the empathy of an average Andrew Tate bro culture tutorial.
This time around however Trump believes God saved him from an assassination attempt.
The difference between war crime and genocide tends to be believing God is on your side.
If Trump believes he’s the vessel for Christ’s retribution, he’s going to do shit for realzies.
I fear he absolutely intends to ram Tariffs on the world from Canada to China.
The impact of such a sweeping move will see the American currency spike and create an over valued global currency that hurts everyone else.
It hurts China and destabilises their already weak economy.
It hurts Canada and gives fuel to the MAGA movement in Canada and sets a narrative they should become a de facto 51st State.
Trump will have operatives spend a small fortune on setting up a referendum in Greenland to join America and gain 51% of the 56 000 Greenlanders by promising them the world. That result will stun the world and lead to Trump simply seizing the Panama Canal the way George Bush invaded Panama.
Because he believes God has saved him to do special God stuff to be the bestest American President ever!
This God delusion for a narcissist allows Trump to do things no other sane President would attempt so he will blunder into a Global economic meltdown because his decision making has become manifest fucking destiny.
In the end, Trump may not care too much if the dollar becomes a source of global instability. Vice President-elect JD Vance argued last year that the dollar’s role as a global reserve currency has subsidized Americans’ ‘mass consumption of mostly useless imports.’
…the last time the American Dollar became this dangerously over priced was in 1985 when a negotiated series of interventions was agreed to bring the dollar down in a controlled manner…
This problem last occurred in early 1985, when the dollar was universally reckoned to be dangerously dear. At that time the US was able to call on trading partners who depended on the US security umbrella – the UK, Germany, France and Japan – to negotiate the ‘Plaza Accord’, which coordinated a series of interventions in the foreign exchange market that allowed the dollar to decline in a measured way.
…there is no way China would agree today to helping America devalue their dollar generated by Trump’s Tariffs.
That leaves a dangerously overvalued currency risking massive financial dislocation all because Trump thinks God loves him.
His plans on a migrant crack down will enable a new secret police that will quickly start hunting other internal enemies based on little more than Trump’s paranoia.
Trump’s hope is that has culture war will distract the working classes he’s attracted.
Ukraine/Russia:
Zelensky is fucked.
Trump will force the Ukraine into a surrender that will see Putin’s aggression rewarded and that in turn will launch an open shadow war between Russia and Europe where Russia sows chaos and disorder at every turn. The Ukrainian surrender will trigger a level of disruption to the fabric of Europe that will ignite conflict throughout Russia’s new coldwar.
Russia’s economy is hurting after this torturous and illegal war.
The West underestimated how much pain Putin was prepared to take for dominance.
700 000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded, that is a number no Democratic Leader could sustain without the electorate turning against them and throwing them out of office, that is a democratic gag reflex that Putin doesn’t have to contend with.
Damaging the economic well being of your enemies is an easier and faster way way to rebalancing power than building back economically. Expect Russian Hackers, Organised Crime and Intelligence Agencies to cause maximum harm amongst a tsunami of sabotage to European interests everywhere.
Israel/Gaza:
A drone bullet removed from the back of a 7 year old Palestinian child – this is what Western Morality looks like
There is a madness currently being spread by the MAGA Trolls that Donald Trump deserves some sort of ‘praise’ for the ceasefire in Gaza.
What a load of bullshit for 3 reasons.
1 – All Trump did was threaten people who had suffered a Genocide with more violence.
2 – A ceasefire during a genocide isn’t justice, it’s just a pause in torture
and 3 – Fucking Trump cause this uprising!
WHY DO YOU ALL HAVE THE MEMORIES OF GOLDFISH???
In January of 2023, 9 months before Hamas launched their attack, I wrote that all the ingredients of another Palestinian uprising had been met thanks to Trump’s insane pandering to the evangelical vote to make Jerusalem the capital of Israel.
Trump made Jerusalem the capital of Israel in 2017 because his lunatic evangelical voter block believe one of the pre-conditions of the rapture is Israel going back to its Old Testament Boundaries.
This naked pandering by Trump to the happy happy joy joy evangelical Apocalypse club set off an explosion of Zionist land grabs focused in the West Bank while continuing to brutally occupy Gaza with a never ending blockade.
Those land grabs wound their way through Israel’s judicial system and went against the Zionists who in turn politicised and formed important fringe groups who cut deals with the deeply corrupt Netanyahu which culminated in a show down between the far right Zionists who wanted to over ride judicial orders against their illegal settlements and Israeli civil society who were disgusted by the abuse of power, state over reach and the strangling off of an Independent Judiciary.
The perverse outcome of Trump’s Abraham Accords that sought to normalise relations between Israel and the Sunni Petrostates, is that it cut the Palestinians out altogether meaning their suffering under the oppressive (and illegal) Israeli Occupation would never find hope and their aspirations silenced.
All these ingredients came together on October 7th as Hamas launched a highly organised attack on Israel murdering 695 civilians, 71 foreigners (mostly Thai), 373 security/soldiers and taking 250 hostages. That attack has generated a disproportionate genocidal response from Israel that has killed over 46 000 + the 10 000 under rubble + the 182 000 Palestinians that have died from secondary causes because of the immense violence.
We are knocking on quarter of a million dead, hundreds of thousands wounded, over 60% of Gaza flattened and the startling reality the IDF have in one year dropped more bombs on Gaza than London, Dresden, Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined…
…watching Israeli apologists scream that their disproportionate ethnic cleansing war crime against the Palestinians isn’t a Genocide and that you are anti-semitic for suggesting so in the shadow of the mountain of dead Palestinians they have killed, manages to encapsulate the insanity, malice and blind hate of the last year.
There won’t be any real investigation into Israel’s war crimes, the IDF will continue to carry out atrocious levels of violence and Netanyahu will look for any chance to escalate.
The goal of total victory over Hamas has been revealed for the fools quest it always was with United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken admitting that Hamas’s ability to recruit during the genocide has replaced those the IDF had killed!
The reverberations of this violence will erupt next in the West Bank where Palestinians who had been promised some level of life quality have found that ripped away from them.
More civilians will be murdered. More atrocities will be committed and the world will see the weeping wound of occupation mutating the oppressor as much as it mutilates the oppressed.
The West will lose all moral high ground once the promised relief never arrives in the amounts agreed to.
Israel will have gotten away with a genocide while the West stood and watched.
Syria:
God knows what perverse secret war interests will drive the next wave of slaughter in Syria, but there will be a next wave of slaughter in Syria.
China has built or expanded more than 200 specialized detention facilities nationwide to interrogate suspects ensnared in Xi Jinping’s widening anti-corruption drive, a CNN investigation has found, as the Chinese leader extends his crackdown beyond the ruling Communist Party to a vast swath of public sectors.
Since taking power in 2012, Xi has launched a sweeping campaign against graft and disloyalty, taking down corrupt officials as well as political rivals at an unprecedented speed and scale as he consolidated control over the party and the military.
Now well into his third term, the supreme leader has turned his relentless campaign into a permanent and institutionalized feature of his open-ended rule.
And increasingly, some of the most fearsome tools he has wielded to keep officials in line are being used against a much broader section of society, from private entrepreneurs to school and hospital administrators – regardless of whether they are members of the 99-million-strong party.
The expanded detention regime, named “liuzhi,” or “retention in custody,” comes with facilities with padded surfaces and round-the-clock guards in every cell, where detainees can be held for up to six months without ever seeing a lawyer or family members.
It’s an extension of a system long used by the party to exert control and instill fear among its members.
As Xi expands his campaign of terror into the bureaucracy of China in a desperate bid to punish corruption in an economy that is faltering so badly it is causing the peasants to revolt, Trump is preparing for the militarisation of Immigration with private prisons…
Donald Trump’s allies and some in the private sector have been quietly preparing to detain and deport migrants residing in the United States on a large scale, according to four sources familiar with the discussions.
Immigration was a cornerstone of Trump’s 2024 campaign, and while he repeatedly touted promises of mass deportation on the trail – putting increased emphasis on interior enforcement compared to his 2016 fixation on the border wall – members of his orbit and some in the private sector discussed what that plan would look like, according to the sources.
Trump’s day one priority is to reinstate his former administration’s border policies and reverse those of President Joe Biden, senior Trump adviser Jason Miller told CNN.
Early discussions among Trump’s team have focused on removing undocumented immigrants who have committed crimes, a source familiar with the team’s preliminary plans told CNN. A key issue under consideration is how, when and if to deport immigrants who were brought to the United States as children, commonly known as Dreamers.
…Trump is going to use private prisons to build the massive detention camps required for his immigration sweeps.
Both Trump and Xi are turning on their own people in an attempt to control their respective countries with a mix of fear and abuse of power.
With Trump’s insane tariff promise looking more like a religious experience than economic plan, the Chinese economy will be as wrecked as the American one.
War becomes the only means out of this doom loop.
Trump wants to move American military assets away from Europe after he forces Zelensky to surrender and reset them against China, because that’s where the MAGA Plutocracy around Trump believes the next conflict will be.
Trump and Xi are the same fists in different gloves and it warns us that 2025 will be far worse a year than 2024.
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan presented President Biden with options for a potential U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities if the Iranians move towards a nuclear weapon before Jan. 20, in a meeting several weeks ago that remained secret until now, three sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios.
Iran is mutilated and terribly weakened by Israel’s ruthless war violence.
They have lost their proxy powers.
Iran will successfully test a nuclear weapon if they feel they have nothing left to lose with Trump. If Iran does that, Israel will immediately launch a counter strike that will kill an enormous amount of civilians.
This will plunge the region into open conflict.
Climate change + surge in refugees:
We are so outside the norm now that the scale of shut down and speed of it will terrify even the most staunch climate denier…
The global economy could face 50% loss in gross domestic product (GDP) between 2070 and 2090 from the catastrophic shocks of climate change unless immediate action by political leaders is taken to decarbonise and restore nature, according to a new report.
The stark warning from risk management experts the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) hugely increases the estimate of risk to global economic wellbeing from climate change impacts such as fires, flooding, droughts, temperature rises and nature breakdown. In a report with scientists at the University of Exeter, published on Thursday, the IFoA, which uses maths and statistics to analyse financial risk for businesses and governments, called for accelerated action by political leaders to tackle the climate crisis.
Without urgent action to accelerate decarbonisation, remove carbon from the atmosphere and repair nature, the plausible worst-case hit to global economies would be 50% in the two decades before 2090, the IFoA report said.
At 3C or more of heating by 2050, there could be more than 4 billion deaths, significant sociopolitical fragmentation worldwide, failure of states (with resulting rapid, enduring, and significant loss of capital), and extinction events.
…we simply do not appreciate the cascade risks of collapse that face us economically, politically, environmentally and socially from run away climate change.
It is going to spark a level of climate change refugees fleeing to the relative safety of the West while the West starts to burn as well…
The Emergency Watchlist report is the International Rescue Committee’s (IRC) assessment of the 20 countries at greatest risk of new or worsening humanitarian emergencies each year. The report is based on an analytically rigorous process that deploys 74 quantitative and qualitative variables, as well as qualitative insights from the IRC’s experience of working in more than 40 countries, to identify which countries to include on the list and where to rank them.
…that’s 11% of the planets population in the failed state cancer, that is an enormous reservoir of pain and human suffering that can easily radicalise and become a breeding ground for a very warped anger and righteous resentment.
Ranked top 10
1. Sudan
2. occupied Palestinian
territory
3. Myanmar
4. Syria
5. South Sudan
6. Lebanon
7. Burkina Faso
8. Haiti
9. Mali
10. Somalia
Unranked second half
• Afghanistan
• Cameroon
• Central African Republic
• Chad
• Democratic Republic of the Congo
• Ethiopia
• Niger
• Nigeria
• Ukraine
• Yemen
This desperation will feed into a refugee crisis made worse by climate change. Africa will hurt in 2025..
Tech boss suggests move to self-learning synthetic data though some warn this could cause ‘model collapse’
…so AI has consumed all human knowledge and is now creating synthetic data, but this sometimes manifests in the AI ‘hallucinating’ as if it is dreaming?
Jesus wept.
How soon does this bloody thing become sentient?
Before we need to start worrying about Terminator, the impact of AI to cause massive job losses has not been fully comprehended. The ruthlessness of AI redundancy makes us all horse and carriage operators in an age of uber.
Mass job losses are looming as corporations manage to get their heads around AI in their individual industries.
The breakthroughs AI will also manage will allow those with the skill set to become a new uber elite.
The distance between those on the bottom of the human scrap heap vs the god like powers of the AI enabled elites will become dangerously disconnected.
Solar Storms:
I know, all this shit to worry about AND SOLAR FLARES?
On January 6, the Louisiana Department of Health announced that a patient hospitalized last month for H5N1 avian influenza had died, becoming the first U.S. death from the virus. To make matters worse, samples taken from the individual suggest that the virus mutated within the patient after infection—meaning it had begun to adapt to infect humans better—raising new questions about H5N1’s pandemic potential.
…research shows us that the antivaxx community have been so successful with their disinformation campaign that people won’t heed the warnings of a new pandemic…
The government-appointed inquiry into Australia’s COVID response has warned public trust won’t be so high in a future pandemic and people would be unlikely to accept again many of the measures taken.
…let’s watch how this unfolds with stupid people dying first.
Deep Fake Disinformation and Misinformation:
The technology is so advanced now that deep fakes will quickly exploit people’s ability to differentiate between reality and fake. This is going to see a surge in scams and terrible decisions made by those who have been fooled.
Rise of global extremism in the West:
A burning Tesla exploding outside Trump towers – is there a better metaphor for America in 2025?
The polarisation generated by social media hate algorithms will radicalise to the point of a new domestic terror act every week with newly uploaded manifestos to read. Domestic terrorism will become the ultimate in performance art.
Super Trans National Criminal Gangs:
The expose in the Financial Times at how wide spread Chinese shadow banking for criminal organisations has become also notes Auckland in the global chain of this criminal empire.
With the friction points in American/Chinese relations about to hit boiling point, we risk Grey Zone blowback from China that would see Chinese Shadow Banking allowing a tsunami of cheaper and purer Meth to enter the Pacific as a means to corrode.
America is seeing it with Fentanyl.
Russia and China will openly help enable their organised crime gangs to exploit drug addiction as part of their Grey Zone tactics.
Global Economy:
Welcome to Late Stage Capitalism on a burning planet, would you like fries with that?
My speculation, purely based on Trump’s inane narcissism, is that he is incapable of backing down, especially now he thinks God has saved him to Make America Great Again and that he won’t be able to accept the Tariffs are a bad decision and the economic carnage he triggers by implementing them will drive him to double down rather than back down.
I can see his Billionaire Libertarian Crypto-Bros convincing him of removing the American Dollar and replacing it with an American Crypto-Currency as the solution the way taking America off the Gold Standard in 1933 helped expansionist growth…
As the United States prepares for Donald Trump’s inauguration on 20 January, all eyes are on the cryptocurrency markets. After Bitcoin’s price reached $100,000(£81,917) for the first time in history in December 2024, the cryptocurrency community is eagerly anticipating Trump’s fulfilment of his campaign promise to make the US the “crypto capital of the planet”. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin’s price could range between $78,000 and $250,000 in 2025.
Blockchain technology has numerous applications beyond crypto payments – for example, in supply chain and logistics. But it is the price surges of Bitcoin, Ethereum and “meme coins” that capture the majority of public attention. Speculative demand and the potential for abnormal returns, which are rarely found in other financial markets, remain key drivers of their prices.
Investors are often motivated by the prospect of short-term profits rather than a belief in the asset’s true or fundamental value. In the case of meme coins, speculative demand is primarily driven by social media culture and community enthusiasm, with little focus on the utility of the underlying technology or long-term success of the project.
Fuelled by expectations of a more favourable regulatory environment under the Trump administration, there is now increased institutional interest in cryptocurrencies. Major players such as BlackRock are entering the crypto derivatives market, increasing liquidity and drawing even more investors. This industry and political support for cryptocurrency demonstrates higher adoption and greater acceptance of crypto assets. At the same time, the speculative nature of crypto assets raises concerns that political endorsements could inflate a bubble, similar to the dotcom bubble that lasted between 1998 and 2000.
Financial market bubbles occur when asset prices far exceed their fundamental values and no longer reflect actual risks. When these bubbles burst, they can trigger a contagion effect, causing the collapse of related securities – even in industries with no direct connection to the troubled assets.
In my research, alongside fellow authors, I analysed companies that had rebranded with crypto-related names to boost their stock prices, despite no changes to their business models. This superficial association made these companies susceptible to contagion from the broader crypto ecosystem. If investors did not investigate whether these companies genuinely adopted blockchain technology, they are likely to sell these stocks swiftly at the first sign of negative news or a crisis in the crypto market.
…Trump is dumb enough and will be desperate enough to find a disruptive new way to make money as the American Economy tanks because of his Tariffs.
For the first month after replacing the American dollar with a Crypto Currency, the new American Crypto Currency will make more money than any of them dreamed, and then on day 31, for reasons none of the Billionaire Libertarian Crypto-Bros will be able to explain to any of us, it will crash because the whole thing is one giant speculative bubble that will implode in a way that makes the Wall Street Crash look like a gentle trip.
War:
Once Trump inadvertently implodes the entire global economy with his Tariffs and Crypto gamble, then the world will turn slowly to open War. Conflict will become the norm as climate change and failed states combine to generate a desperation only violence can sate and fuel.
Open conflict between China and America will come to the surface once the economic pressures become impossible to contain socially.
The Military Industrial Complex will make an enormous profit this year.
WILD CARD: UFOs
This could be the year we finally get irrefutable proof of UFOs!
WILD CARD: QUANTUM COMPUTERS BECOMING AWARE
The craziness of Quantum Computers ability to conduct calculations in multi-dimensions is almost magic in of itself, but at what point does such a hyper intelligent, trans-dimensional computer become self aware?
WILD CARD: METHANE BURP + FIRST WAVE OF MASS HEAT DEATHS
The giga tonnes of methane locked into permafrost and on the ocean floor are near the tipping points for massive methane burps that will send the temperature spiking an extra degree each year for a decade. This in turn sparks the first mass deaths from extreme heat waves.
WILD CARD: FIRST MAJOR HACK
Get ready for the first major hack of a social media platform that exposes everyones secrets to the world.
Conclusion:
Shit goin’ to git cray.
Try and stay alive in 2025.
Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice – please donate here.
I’m divided over the latest rush by woke progressives fleeing Twitter and Facebook to Threads, Mastodon and Bluesky.
On one hand I think it would be great to put all our alienating woke middle class Identitarians into a padded echo chamber where they can all scream their alienating nonsense on platforms that have no influence, but on the other hand it really highlights how reliance on cancel culture has blunted our ability as a movement to win debates.
Because social media is now so ubiquitous, everyone has seen flameouts and vicious knife fights on contentious issues in their timelines and that activist screaming you are a Transphobic, Racist, Sexist, Vaccine-peddling, Satanic pedophile is enough for you to personally hate and be hurt and align yourself against that activist regardless of policy.
That’s ‘proxification’.
It wasn’t Trump saying outrageous things that attracted angry reactionary white working class vote, it was the intense reaction by middle class woke activists to Trump whom they had been insulted by that made the election so febrile.
Voters cut their noses off to spite their face because it angered people they despised.
We need to be on social media platforms that aren’t just padded echo chambers.
Threads and Bluesky allow you to curate your feed so much so that you never have to feel challenged or threatened by a different opinion.
I don’t think that helps anyone.
Sure, Social Media Hate Algorithms have filled Elon’s Town Square with Neo-Nazis and Brownshirts and Troll Bot Farms that swarm to curry favour and shape opinion alongside manufactured disinformation and misinformation, but I won’t lock myself away in a padded echo chamber because you don’t win debates in echo chambers and you don’t change anyones mind in an echo chamber.
I’m staying on Twitter and Facebook because engaging with people who don’t agree with you is activism!
Unfortunately feelings over ride reason and we are now just agreeing or disagreeing with feelings and seeing as social media has made us all unforgivable in the eyes of the puritanical woke and the unhinged right, there is a need to use the few tools at our disposal to generate solidarity to stop the unhinged Right from selling us all out to their rich mates.
We no longer have the luxury of pure temple politics and we need as a movement to understand that the Holy Trinity of Woke Intersectionist Dogma:
All white people are irredeemable cross burning racists
B-E-L-I-E-V-E ALL WOMAN that ALL Men are rapists.
Anyone supporting Free Speech is a uniform wearing Nazi whop hates the trans community
We need to appreciate that Holy Trinity of Woke Dogma helped kill the class solidarity the Left represents and pushed vast numbers of men into the arms of the right and that our movement’s inability to bring people across to our side using Broadchurch common ground policy is because we have been so reliant since 2026 on cancel culture.
Progressives fleeing Twitter and Facebook highlights how reliance on cancel culture has blunted our ability as a movement to win debates.
If the woke can go back to sleep now and allow the Class Left to rescue our movement, we’d be very appreciative cheers.
Now go bitch about alienating bullshit on Bluesky and Mastodon while the Class Left fights.
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Large windows, poor ventilation, and lack of shade are primary causes, not insulation, experts say.
A resident of a house that overheats every hot day tells the Heraldliving in her home is like being in “an oven”.
…Jesus Christ this pisses me off!
How the fuck, on a. burning planet, have newly built houses been so poorly designed that they are acting as ovens and dangerously over heating residents???
HOW THE FUCK CAN THAT HAPPEN ON A BURNING PLANET?
How can poor design turn houses into Ovens?
And what is the Minister’s bumbling bullshit response?
Oh it’s an insulation problem!
WTF?
But Penk’s speculation the stricter insulation requirements were causing overheating has been dismissed by experts who spoke to the Herald. The Green Building Council said rolling back H1 standards “goes against global best practice”.
Insulation doesn’t work that way – The Minister’s bumbling bullshit panicked response is because he’s here to deregulate the building codes when it is this exact lack of oversight that has built houses that fucking cook the people inside them!
This is why I am so cynical of ACTs Regulatory Standards Bill, we need MORE oversight and MORE State capacity to police that oversight to avoid building houses that roast the people inside them FFS!
Allowing a Corporate Body to prevent legislation based on a narrow interpretation of property rights as the only rights creates houses built that operate like ovens – that’s the fucking free market at work!
We need actual regulatory oversight and the ability to properly police that housing build to ensure homes that are heat proof, water tight and healthy!
Watching National try to respond to more mishaps caused by a lack of oversight by proposing even less oversight will be exiting.
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The global economy could face 50% loss in gross domestic product (GDP) between 2070 and 2090 from the catastrophic shocks of climate change unless immediate action by political leaders is taken to decarbonise and restore nature, according to a new report.
The stark warning from risk management experts the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) hugely increases the estimate of risk to global economic wellbeing from climate change impacts such as fires, flooding, droughts, temperature rises and nature breakdown. In a report with scientists at the University of Exeter, published on Thursday, the IFoA, which uses maths and statistics to analyse financial risk for businesses and governments, called for accelerated action by political leaders to tackle the climate crisis.
Without urgent action to accelerate decarbonisation, remove carbon from the atmosphere and repair nature, the plausible worst-case hit to global economies would be 50% in the two decades before 2090, the IFoA report said.
At 3C or more of heating by 2050, there could be more than 4 billion deaths, significant sociopolitical fragmentation worldwide, failure of states (with resulting rapid, enduring, and significant loss of capital), and extinction events.
We simply do not appreciate the cascade risks of collapse that face us economically, politically, environmentally and socially.
Right now, poverty is a choice for this Government, their focus is on their Donors interests, not the common good.
Rents are crippling people, yet the Landlords get more!
GDP per-capita down 4.6% from Sept 2022 peak, a steeper fall than first 3 years of GFC recession, when per-capita GDP took 5 years to get recover; ASB forecasts recovery to peak may take 4 more years
This inequality happens at a time the reality of climate change changes the entire economic model…
…and on the other hand we have a Government pimping for the climate change polluters…
…Shane Jones social media feed is a ‘pick me’ culture war hot mess that would make Incels blush.
We need economic resilience, we need community resilience, we need radical reform to strengthen sustainability.
We need more Left Universalism.
We need degrowth neutral capitalism.
We need to lift the tax yoke off working people, beneficiaries and the middle classes and we need to put it on the Banks, the Corporations, the Billionaires and the mega wealthy.
We need more Democratic Infrastructure, not less!
Why do we need these things?
Because the climate is shutting down and we face a bleak future where Billions will suffer and die thanks to catastrophic climate change.
This change will be forced upon us whether we like it or not.
This demands more connections, more bonds that bind us together to emotionally, socially, economically and politically survive what is coming.
Māori communalism is going to teach us a lot.
Here are some thoughts:
Iwi backed new Supermarket: Bring in a 3rd player into the supermarket duopoly that is Iwi backed with a focus on cheap prices for consumers, best prices for producers and high wages and work conditions for workers. Take 30% of the Supermarket Industry by force (allowed under the Commerce Commission powers) and use this as the backbone for a new food security system.
Mārae Civil Defence: Use Marae as the backbone of Civil Defence throughout NZ with resources based there alongside new building grants to strengthen those Marae.
Ministry of Green Works: We need to be able to build our own infrastructure.
New Mental Health First Responders: A whole new branch of first responders to deal specifically with mental health issues to talk people down and seek help rather than calling then Police and arresting people.
Artist Benefit: As part of a degrowth Capitalism model, pay Artists to make public art, use that art as a means to deal with the wondrous grief caused by the destruction of the planet.
Māori Parliament: An indigenous Parliament that amplifies Māori political voices.
Universal Student Union: Allow Student Unions to be the incubators for tomorrows politicians and stop students simply being cash cows for corporate education.
Retirement Village Unions: These scumbag retirement villages abuse their elderly and sick clients, universal Retirement Village Unions would stop them being exploited.
Pensioner Unions: Give our elderly a voice!
We don’t comprehend how bad things are going to get environmentally, the speed of heat that is happening right now shocks scientists and with research suggesting AMOC will shut down BEFORE 2050, we are in a a realm of violent change whether we want to acknowledge that or not.
We require a revolution at the ballot box.
Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice – please donate here.
Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice – please donate here.
He has since been released on parole, but must wear an electronic monitoring bracelet on his ankle.
Foster was not named or tagged in the video, which includes clips of the couple spending time together, travelling and playing on the beach with Cruickshank’s children.
Her followers quickly spotted Foster’s ankle bracelet, as did news outlets such as the Daily Mail Australia.
Ugh.
Look, I wasn’t going to comment on this because:
1 – It’s garbage gossip
2 – Who you chose to love is your business and not mine
3 – Who gives a fuck?
Now, one could argue that because Cruickshank is an influencer, then she is open to a higher level of scrutiny which I again don’t care about because I don’t care about Social Media Influencers.
Equally I don’t care about Cops either, which Cruickshank’s new partner is a former member of.
So I don’t think this is any of our business.
Who you love is your own business.
Once you have served your time you have served your time.
And I don’t care about Social Media Influencers or Cops.
What I do care about however is the process and manner in which Jamie Foster was convicted because what the public are not aware of is the manner in which Foster was investigated for this case.
What the public don’t know is that the individual at the centre of this case was xxxxxx xx xxx xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxx*.
Which is all a bit ‘Southern Sheriff Justice’ for me.
There is an enormous amount regarding this investigation and the prosecution of it that points to a miscarriage of justice, which matters, even when the person on the receiving end of a miscarriage of justice is a cop.
*censored for legal reasons.
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