Pacific Forum – trouble in paradise

The 55th Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting in Palau has ended but the tensions generated between China and America were obvious as was the total failure by Australia and NZ to do anything meaningful on climate change.

RNZ do an impressive job of reviewing the Realm of NZ…

New Zealand’s four Realm leaders are meeting in Auckland – what’s on their minds?

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Analysis – The Realm of New Zealand’s four leaders are meeting in Auckland on Friday morning for a chance for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon to field their most pressing concerns.

The meeting is also an opportunity for the leaders – representing New Zealand, the Cook Islands, Niue and Tokelau – to put their heads together ahead of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Leaders Meeting in Palau next week.

The Cook Islands and Niue are independent states in all aspects apart from defence and security, for which New Zealand is responsible for assisting with. They also have equal citizenship rights to Kiwis under the Cook Islands Constitution Act 1964 and Niue Constitution Act 1974.

Their “free association” arrangements are unique in the world, only seen elsewhere in Palau, the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia, which associate with the United States under their respective Compacts of Free Association.

Tokelau, on the other hand, is a dependent territory governed from Wellington, but given the autonomy to manage its own affairs domestically.

Though their land is small, their oceans are massive. This forces Wellington to think more strategically, with the responsibility to defend nearly 2.6 million square kilometres of exclusive economic zones (EEZ), in a moment of intense geopolitical competition between the US and China.

But while the Cook Islands is making headway with global superpowers, Tokelau is facing a financial crisis from a massive loss in fishing revenue.

Meanwhile, all are reeling from a fuel crisis, seeing massive price spikes at the pump, for which New Zealand, where the Cooks and Niue get all of their fuel – would have some influence.

RNZ

 

…we need to see the defence of the Realm as our priority, not a nice to have.

The Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting had lots of obvious stress points.

• China versus Taiwan. Host nation Palau is one of only three PIF members that still diplomatically recognise Taiwan (alongside Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands). Palau invited Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung to associated meetings and events. Beijing objected strongly, saying Taiwan had “no qualifications” to participate and warning of consequences.
• China’s ballistic-missile test in the Pacific. China launched a ballistic missile into the Pacific in July. Palau wanted the Forum to send Beijing a strong message about sovereignty, transparency and militarisation. But the Forum couldn’t agree on a strong condemnation.
• Nauru broke ranks. The final communiqué expressed “concern” about the missile launch but did not name China. Nauru — which switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to Beijing in 2024 — formally dissociated itself from even that statement. Kiribati wasn’t present for the leaders’ retreat where it was decided. That’s a significant demonstration of how Chinese relationships are complicating traditional PIF consensus.
• Five Pacific leaders didn’t attend. The leaders of Fiji, Vanuatu, Samoa, Solomon Islands and Kiribati were absent for at least the main summit proceedings, although they had various stated domestic reasons and sent representatives. Winston Peters said he was “highly suspicious” about whether foreign interference might lie behind some absences. He didn’t directly accuse China, and there is no public evidence establishing that Beijing caused those absences. China rejected the suggestion.
• Palau itself has been under Chinese pressure. Beijing had issued a travel advisory describing Palau as unsafe. The US embassy accused China of attempting to “weaponize tourism to coerce Palau.” That matters enormously for a tiny tourism-dependent Pacific economy that continues to recognise Taiwan.
• The US is pushing back economically and strategically. During the Forum, New Zealand and the United States announced joint funding for a major upgrade of a WWII-era port in the Cook Islands. That sits within the broader American/Australian/NZ effort to maintain strategic influence and infrastructure access across the Pacific as China’s presence grows.
• Australia is deepening military integration. China’s July missile test occurred only hours after Australia and Fiji signed a major defence treaty, described by Reuters as Fiji’s first-ever alliance. That’s another indication of the accelerating security competition

Look.

New Zealand spends  0.3% of its gross national income on official development assistance.

Our diplomatic arm is even less than that with a cost annually of around $500million.

Our military spend is 1.2%.

I believe we have four choices confronting our new geopolitical reality as a friction point between America and China.

1 – We capitulate to our Chinese Economic Overlords.

2 – We capitulate to our American Political Masters.

3 – We freeze in terror and make no decisions and allow both of them to molest us until one of them wins and takes us over as a vassal State.

4 – We get off our knees, stand on our two feet, acknowledge the reality of climate change and decide to properly fund (via taxing the wealthy elite) an Independent Foreign Policy.

I have no interest in the first three options.

I believe we need to lean into our strengths and we must lift our Military, Diplomacy and AID budgets up collectively to 5%.

1% AID

1% to our Diplomacy arm.

3% to our military.

AID

We have an obligation as a first world country to provide an AID budget that is free of political considerations and is focused on actual welfare of people. We need a far kinder and more generous Aid budget with none of the attached strings other countries try to push. It’s this no strings attached generosity that wins hearts and minds as opposed to the fish hooks of great nations.

We need to stop exploiting Pacific people for fruit labouring and instead pay them properly and house them properly.

We need to look to Universal Union Membership for all migrant workers to stop exploitation.

 

Diplomacy

Enemy to none, friend to all should be our mantra. We need to lean into NZs reputation as Independent and we need to bulk up our embassies and diplomacy and use the strengths of our culture and pacifism to stand for universal human rights and the rule based order.

We must spend aid money on basic infrastructure while acknowledging  China can out spend us, so how can NZ maintain its influence in the Pacific while desperately countering the outrageous level of corruption China and America promotes and so many Pacific Governments revel in?

Auckland is the largest Pacific Island City and we do little to celebrate or leverage off that. We need to look at offering fundamental migration opportunities for Tuvalu, Tokelau and Kiribati who face the worst impacts of climate change but we also need to think outside the square in terms of not only countering Chinese influence but beating it.

I think two ways NZ could uniquely promote its interests into the Pacific against China could be via Rugby Diplomacy and Journalism.

The All Blacks doing a tour of the South Pacific would actually be of huge cultural and sporting importance and something the Government should sponsor with taxpayer dollars to help subsidise the costs to the All Blacks as a sign of respect to the sporting and cultural contribution Pacific Island nations have provided NZ.

Why shouldn’t we use Rugby as a diplomatic tool to build standing throughout the Pacific? It’s something China couldn’t match and something NZ could excel at. China might build the stadiums, but they will be watching NZ Rugby in them!

Likewise Journalism. AUT run the excellent Pacific Media Centre to promote quality Journalism throughout the Pacific. What if NZ saw the promotion of quality Journalism as a craft throughout the Pacific as a strong way to counter corruption and Chinese influence? Scholarships, Pacific News Media websites, support of local ethical journalism these could be the pillars of promoting corruption free politics and holding those Governments to account.

Dr Robie, formerly founding director of AUT’s Pacific Media Centre and a professor of Pacific journalism has launched an independent news and current affairs website to complement his long-established Asia Pacific Report. His work should be promoted throughout the Pacific!

Rugby diplomacy and promotion of Journalistic standards throughout the Pacific could counter China and promote NZs strategic interests.

We need to look at setting up Peace Camps at Marae where young people from warring zones can come to NZ as a Peace centre.

 

Military 

We can’t pretend we are in a benign environment any longer. We need a military that is focused on peace keeping and defence.

We need a drone manufacturing industry and we need an expansion of drones for patrolling our economic zone and defend the Realm.

We need a better coast guard and more surveillance capacity.

Arguments that we can’t afford huge ships are valid, but drones have shown us that we can hit expensive ships for very little cost, and if the focus is defending NZ and not going on foreign military adventures, we can use NZ as one giant air craft carrier with Drones.

We can’t outspend China or America, but we can play a far smarter game and end up with an Independent Foreign Policy.

If we want to be independent – we need to lift military, Aid and Diplomacy spending to 5% GDP.

 

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