New Roy Morgan Poll predicts Hung Parliament
New Roy Morgan is predicting a hung Parliament...
National: 31
Labour: 24
ACT: 10.5
NZF: 7.5
Green: 15.5
TPM: 1.5
TOP: 9.5
…there’s no way Labour are that low and I would be surprised if National remain in the 30s.
The gender break down highlights the damage our middle class woke activists caused male voters to leave the Left…
A majority of men (58.5%) favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 27.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori. In contrast, a majority of 54% of women favour the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition ahead of the National-led Government on 39.5%.
Younger women aged 18-49 provide the largest support to the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (64.5%) compared to 27% for the National-led Government. Support for Labour (36%), the Greens (25.5%), and Te Pāti Māori (3%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
…we really need our middle class woke to stay on Bluesky this election.
2026 will be the Election of the Overhang!
National won 44 electorates last election, but look likely to lose at least 4 and come home with a 28%/29% Party vote which means an overhang of maybe as many as 8 seats, while Te Pati Māori have launched their own candidate only campaign that could close trigger an Overhang.
The National overhang plus Māori Party overhang means 51% will require 4 parties this election.
If National do gain an overhang, Paul Goldsmith, Gerry Brownlee, Nicola Willis and Chris Bishop could all be gone – this election could be a disaster for National’s Cabinet.
Right wing influencers have done the MMP math and they are now advocating like Maurice Williamson is that National voters this election candidate vote National, but Party vote ACT or NZF – which begs the question, what would a more powerful ACT and NZF do in a second term Government?
Brothers and Sisters, let me be as clear as possible.
My dear Comrades of Aotearoa New Zealand.
I love our country and I love our culture.
I love the genuine aroha and mana of our people and I will always stand shoulder to shoulder with you.
I don’t care who you vote for, I care about you.
You are my neighbour, my fellow country-person and I want you to succeed in our amazing, beautiful country.
I love our egalitarian Democracy and I am proud of the amazing milestones we have collectively brought about.
The Treaty, Universal Suffrage, the 40 hour working week, the banning of sub-machine guns and our nuclear free status.
I am proud of how far we have come.
I am not going to tell you WHO to vote for this election, that is your sacred prerogative as a citizen when you stand in that ballot booth, but I sure as Christ am going to tell you WHY to vote.
The Common Good.
I just spent 8 days inside our public health system and I have nothing but praise for our incredible public health workers, from the dispatchers, to the ambulance staff, to the cleaners, to the orderlies, to the tech teams to the nurses to the drs, they represent the very best of us who work for the common good.
Everyone I came across while in hospital are doing their best in increasingly desperate situations, they are all bone tired and exhausted and our obligation as citizens is to ensure they have the resources to do their jobs.
Do not allow Corporations, the mega wealthy, the Banks, the Billionaire class, the property pimps and the big polluters to rob us of our collective agency by using culture war revenge fantasies to manipulate our petty bigotries.
Aim higher than the most toxic of our angels, aim for hope that we can work together for the Common Good and not the grievance of spite for corporate interests.
Stand for a better us, not a more bitter us.
Stand for New Zealand, not Old Zealand.
Stand with the young, the old, the vulnerable, the voiceless, the lost, the hurt, the disabled, the indigenous and the poor.
Vote for the common good, not the selfish venal interests of the rich.
When Health Minister Simeon Brown says there is no emergency in our public health system – I’ve just been inside there, and I’m telling you – he’s lying.
Enrol now and vote for the common good!
Independent Media is more important than ever, especially in the lead up to the Election. TDB is the largest Left Wing Blog in NZ and we have been operating for 13 years. We get zero funding from NZonAir and we don’t have no rich backers. If you can donate please do so here or directly into our account –12-3065-0133561-56
Labour on 24% is just utter bullshit. …nearly all the other polls have them around 34% and National around 28.5%.
.
ACT will be lucky to make 5% on the day….National can’t afford Epsom to corrupt the system this time around
Cry harder Bomber.
I’m not surprised Labour are that low at all, for all that National has been through the last month, and the sh*t sandwich that this Govt. has been in general. Yet Labour can’t seem to sell themselves to the electorate, or choose not too. Sitting back and doing nothing, or defending hits speaks louder in some ways than getting out in front and taking a punt. I’m fairly certain it’ll be another right bloc Govt. post election. Perhaps then Labour will lose Hipkins, reboot and go for the jugular, so to speak?
” Perhaps then Labour will lose Hipkins, reboot and go for the jugular, so to speak? ”
The problem is not just Hipkins but the wider shadow cabinet and caucus who are to blame here. Hipkins has made it all that much harder clinging on to a failed economic model that will continue to fail and lost them the election three short years ago.
Your right Mat .Same team no new coach same outcome .They are not offering anything of value .
A hung Parliament ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Oh, be still my beating heart!
TOP polling simply off the back of total disillusionment with all the other parties and the country as a whole. NZ is turning into a virtue-signalling directionless economic basket case and not everyone can or wants to move to Aussie.
Bring back Buck.
Labour on 24%, yeah, ok, sure, have another Capt Morgan Roy!
That’s very good Neil!