…another Poll showing Labour + Green + TPM + TOP = Government.
Couple of points.
2- We are seeing huge swings in NZF and Green support and I think that is a weighting issue because both of those parties have such deep support within very set demographics.
3 – It is increasingly clear that TOP will cross the 5% threshold.
Now.
If the establishment Left don’t like the rise of TOP, perhaps they should reflect on the current state of the NZ Left?
First up, I’m a working class socialist so I am NOT voting for TOP, but TDB was the first to recognise that TOP would break the 5% threshold this year and that’s why I’ve written so many blogs on TOP and why I have had Qiulae on The Bradbury Group more than anyone else.
I don’t even think the mainstream media in NZ covered when TOP broke the 5% threshold in the first Roy Morgan Poll.
TOP appeals to second generation migrant communities who want to be Kiwis yet feel alienated by the major parties, Qiulae’s optimism appeals to them and TOP policy appeals to all those Gen Xers who don’t own property.
Now.
I have been fortunate enough to talk to Qiulae privately many times and here is my assessment of her and TOP.
They are disrupters and believe in the reform they are promoting.
The difference between TOP and National, ACT and NZF is that they actually take climate change seriously, and it is essentially this issue that I believe makes it impossible for them to find common ground with National, ACT and NZF who at heart are all climate denial parties.
National is so in the pocket of the Big Polluters that they take secret direction when passing laws FFS.
That is an anathema to TOP.
In the background of TOP you have former National MP Jackie Blue who was scathing on the Coalition Governments pay parity kneecapping and Ian Lees-Galloway who is a former Labour MP.
Also look at the analysis of where TOP are picking up support is from Green and Labour supporters who want the Party to go with the Left, not the Right.
If the establishment Left don’t like the rise of TOP, perhaps they should reflect on the current state of the NZ Left?
Te Pati Māori ripped itself to pieces with internal strife.
The Greens spent most of the last 3 years fighting their own internal woke factions.
Labour’s election policy is, ‘we are slightly less cruel than National’.
Look. I am going to use my 2 votes for either Labour, Greens or TPM so TOP ain’t my block of cheese, but the best outcome for the Left is a Labour/Green/TPM/TOP Government if we can’t get a Labour/Green/TPM Government.
To ensure TOP don’t rob TPM of any political leverage, the Kakariki Alliance between Greens/TPM must be in effect to guarantee the united negotiating front from Greens/TPM so TOP don’t simply push out TPM.
I want National, NZF and ACT out of power and if TOP can be allies in building a better NZ, I welcome them to the fold.
I think the Left have to consider what we can offer TOP.
TOP is drawing second generation migrant communities and Gen Xers locked out of the property market.
TOP voters are the kids of National voting parents who live in the cities.
They are too rich to vote Labour and not Māori enough to vote Green but they are horrified by the race baiting and cruelty of National, NZF and ACT.
They are leaving National BECAUSE they are disgusted by what National have allowed NZF and ACT to get away with.
Luxon trying to cauterise National losing more votes to TOP by ruling them out is a misdiagnosis about why they are fleeing in the first place.
If you have an education, aren’t held hostage by the farming lobby and believe in climate change, you know a vote for National is a vote for ACT and NZF, that is why TOP have popped and are so close to 5%.
The issue now Luxon has ruled them out is how could a Labour/Green/TPM/ TOP Government work together?
National exist to stop Labour getting in and Labour exists to stop the Left from ever gaining really policy wins.
TOP are disrupters.
What can the Left offer TOP if Labour + Green + TPM + TOP = 51%?
In think there are 3 very quick wins that could be offered to TOP.
1 – Free Public Transport for Students, the disabled, beneficiaries and pensioners with everyone else using Labours Public Transport Fare Cap.
2 – UBI for all Tertiary students.
3 – Feasibility study on Land tax. The current land tax proposal would see $17 500 from a million dollar valued land, (which works if UBI is used for everyone) but if you are only limiting UBI to tertiary students, that land tax is simply too high, but if if was .01 instead of 1.75, $1750 extra annually is far more palatable than $17 500.
TOP could gain a UBI for tertiary students, free public transport for everyone not covered by Labour fare cap and a Land Tax.
Those are wins TOP could bank and build upon.
They are also wins Labour, Greens and TPM could live with.
Your choice this election is the racist Right or the Collective Good.
Who owns TOP?
With a store bought leader, and zero internal structure, it’s not the members?
RNZ:
Opportunity voters lean Labour, but party says it ‘doesn’t drive our decision making’
Russell Palmer
14 July 2026
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics/713437/opportunity-voters-lean-labour-but-party-says-it-doesn-t-drive-our-decision-making
With Opportunity on the rise, new polling from RNZ shows the party’s supporters are far more keen on a Labour-led government than a National-led one.
But leader Qiulae Wong says that preference would not “drive” the decision-making of the leadership group who would make the call…..
Wong has made an explicit pitch to be an alternative kingmaker – snatching the proverbial crown from New Zealand First – but pushed back on whether the party would take its supporters clear preference for a Labour government into account….
….”Our breakthrough economy policy which is all about investing in innovation and growth I think would be very appealing to National voters, and we have very similar KiwiSaver policies as well,” she said.
With the outlay of $176,140 personal donation, with a seat on the decision making Opportunity executive board, it can be argued tha $multi-millionaire Alan Wilderland is the owner of TOP.
but TDB was the first to recognise that TOP would break the 5% threshold this year
TDB will not be remembered for being the first to recognise that TOP would break the 5% threshold.
TDB will be remembered for being the first (and only) blog to recognise that TOP would support a Labour led government.
Surely you must have realised by now Martyn that TOP will return a National led government.
Please don’t make me be that obnoxious arsehole that has to say “I told you so”
I know of both a nz first supporter.and former Green voter considering voting Top I like how they are opposed to the proposed LNG terminal in New Plymouth and not climate change denialist .However the leader of TOP recently said she could work with Act NZ first on some issues .Which rings alarm bells ie Trojan horse using left leaning votes to potentially prop up Rigth when parties I could be wrong but the Top leader should indicate she would never support Nat Act and Shane Jones First to show where she really stands
But many wealthy people have donated enormous sums to the 3 right wing parties. What will they say if they do not win?
The donation debacle is obscenely in favour of the right. They have so much money they are literally saying ‘We accept bribes!”
The amounts are literally showing who bribes politicians and obviously many wealthy people don’t care who knows.
So, to all of you non-critical thinkers who always jump on the bandwagon that Māori get preferential treatment all over the place, bumped to the front of the queue and what they don’t get given they steal, what do you have to say about these enormous sums, as opposed to the TPM with has a mere 40k.
Well at least the Talbot Poll is not as ‘out of touch’ or ‘biased’ as so many of the other Polls. Whatever the outcome on 7/11, NZ has to rid itself of the scourge that the CoC has become. It is entirely for the benefit of RW voters, i.e. designed for the already wealthy and so very racist! We live in the land Maori occupied for 350-400 years before Europeans arrived, so how dare they shove their personal wealth and their greedy “wants”, down our throats. We have never before had such homelessness, hopelessness and poverty which is a direct disgrace to our lovely country and its people. To be willing to work but unable to find a job, must be the most embarrassing and frustrating feeling. Hipkins and Left, be prepared to water down some of your “wants” to incorporate the policies of your other coalition partners and agree to make sure you NEVER end up with the demeaning and childish in-fighting which has become so much a part of this current CoC rabble. You are better than that!
Top is also the new home of young males who used to vote green but the greens have no male Co-leader, no males in the top ten, use the term male as a derogatory term and the current co-leader “only white men commit crimes in NZ” shockingly men actually expect not to be treated like dirt and also want to be represented.
I know Martin gets how badly the left has screwed up with gen y gen z males, but the left doesn’t
Top is where just about every guy I meet is voting and as a stand up comic who meets a lot of guys in chch it’s pretty impressive, a)) of them say they used to vote green but like tops universalism and that top isn’t stuck on identity and cares about the environment.
I think the left should be happy young males are going to top and not NZf or act or national like young men in other countries
The fact they are going to a universalist party means if labour gets Kieran McNulty and a bunch of good male candidates or the greens get a charismatic young male co-leader who doesn’t lecture or virtue signal, the left can still one day win back these voters which is good, because in other countries you have gen z and gen y men 50% of the largest two generations actively shutting the left out of consideration
So yeah the tribal left needs to look in the mirror and think about how it lost 50% of the two most progressive generations, rather than being bitchy cos no amount of hand ringing will convince these voters to vote for them, it’s the lectures that made them turn off the greens and labour, besides the more they talk about top the more they are giving top free publicity
NZSAS veteran Josh Jacobsen stands for Green Party.
Some of the ‘Left’—yes’… However, many on the Left do not want the TPM or the TOP included until certain policies are in line with the majority of the Left.
You sound nervous Nathan. I like it. Your beloved National/ACT/NZF Government is looking very shaky
Not really—just mention TPM might be in government—and watch the Left vote disappear
Are you saying many of us Maori voters aren’t left Nathan because the majority of us aren’t right that’s for sure.
TOP are offering economic game-changing policy on tax and income. 90% of working Kiwi’s would pay less tax than they do now. This is a combination of introducing a tax free band, the shift to land tax and the UBI. These are transformational economic policies – especially for the un-employed and the working class.
My biggest fear is that Chris I’ve got a cactus up my ass’ Hipkins is going to blow it and ACT and Opp will align on lowering taxes for working Kiwis (and reducing government spending to go with it).
My prediction is that Labour will sit on their hands and the coalition parties will move early when it comes to negotiating with Opp.