Luxon caucus vote: minute by minute
12 August 2026
9:06am
Inbox ping: Bryce EdwAIrds this morning:
And then there is John Key. Reported to be hitting the phones for Luxon, Key told the Herald the reports were “untrue”, and refused to say anything further. Coughlan’s conclusion is the quote of the day: “If Luxon has lost Key, one of his biggest backers, and something of a living saint to the modern National Party, then the game is truly up.” Last night the world’s largest prediction market was indicating an 80 percent-plus probability that Luxon is rolled (trading on it is illegal in New Zealand).
[…]
Stanford ruled herself out at the weekend; her people were counting numbers by Monday. She has refused to express confidence in Luxon when directly asked. At Wellington Airport yesterday she simply did not answer. And The Post reports that Murray McCully, the former East Coast Bays MP she worked for for four years and is reported to have called her political mentor, has been seen in Wellington and is believed to be advising her.
Surely the shadow of the Dark Prince being cast upon the vicinity of Thorndon must be a harbinger of some misdeed.
Video of the Nats running the media gauntlet outside parliament buildings is coming online. They’re in various degrees of fury.
Penk stops to speak to the media pack converging in a flying V interception array running across the lawn. No one else has stopped. Penk has a satchel of National Party sacrificial daggers slung over his back, sauntering along looking like it’s just another uneventful, benign day at the office. Denies everything, in the same chirpy way he had to Penksplain his way out of allowing nuclear-powered vessels back into New Zealand. Says he supports Luxon. Me, Sir – I simply don’t know that to which you are referring.
Nicola Grigg pops up in RNZ audio first. Then there’s a video. She’s marching through an airport and was saying that Stanford is a friend but “won’t be Prime Minister”. Ouch. Someone points out she’s the Minister of Women’s Affairs. The cattiness, the pure rapid feline claw protracting scratching cattiness from the Women’s Minister is just so fortunately aligned. What must be her opinion on the career prospects of her caucus enemies if that’s how she rates her friend’s?
Willis has been conducting herself like the PM all year – she wants it. Stanford would cut into Labour‘s female vote – she also wants it. Bishop will get to be Finance Minister if Willis is PM, so he would back Willis. But do any of them want to take that on with an election in two and a half months?
11:00am
The NZ Herald has two livestreams: Ryan Bridge at the studio with David Farrar et al and another livestream of John Key interviewed by Jack Tame at a business forum. Key said he’s been actively backing Luxon in the media; but Jack points out he seems to be sliding to neutral. Key; “we will know in 40 minutes.”
When is the meeting out? About lunchtime, but Farrar said the Cunliffe caucus meeting took 7 hours! The longer the meeting the more likely Luxon got waxed.
Key is now talking about “Deep Seek”, and sounds as though he’s an investor (?) and it’s an AI thing. But there are privacy concerns. He says he has nothing to fear everything is an open book. Well after his pony tail pulling fetish exposé on The Daily Blog, he’s probably right.
The Ryan Bridge crew are now sharing a bowl of popcorn to demonstrate how frivolous the National Party and their leadership of the government has become. So painfully difficult at this point of the second coup pre-emption of the year to take them seriously.
Duncan Garner is livestreaming, 1,300 viewers – that’s pretty good for a random event, but it seems there’s no competition (at least in my searches of live content). He’s huffing and puffing and wheezing and staccato stammering, as usual, but he clearly has no insight and like so many subjects he’s clueless. Garner’s poll has Stanford running twice the support of both Luxon and Bishop. Only 5% for Willis.
12:00
RNZ Midday report quoting Key saying they need a resolution today. Caucus still locked in apparently.
Talk
About
Tension
12:05pm
Garner, his stubble having visibly grown darker over just the last hour (male replacement hormones? – isn’t that one of his advertisers?) says Luxon’s security are coming down. 1,500 live viewers. Wiliamson is raging against the “Maorification” of New Zealand, Aotearoa is replacing New Zealand…. How will NZ wine be identified in overseas markets? Williamson has grown something of a Santa beard. So, not only does Williamson now sound like Eugene Terblanche he now looks like him.
The worst possible outcome for National would be Luxon hangs on. But it’s now getting on towards three hours. Tension is now similar to being over-caffeinated, with parts of the body involuntarily twitching – hypersensitive to trigger words coming from all the live streams and the radio.
12:13pm
RNZ: “unlikely to be a vote today”. Luxon trying to pre-empt getting rolled, acting before an alternative ticket can crystallise?
I am wondering if Goldsmith is voting for Luxon, almost guaranteeing Goldy will loose his own list seat as a result, fitting if true.
12:20pm
Garner’s crew reports a text: “Luxon still standing.” RNZ reports the area for the formal conference at the banquet hall is being set up at parliament. Espiner on RNZ is gleeful – he adores these knifings.
12:30pm
Caucus meeting has been going for 3 hours.
12:31pm
RNZ: Luxon will speak at 12:35. Espiner: “I imagine he’s sticking around.” Christ no.
12:32pm
Garner’s crew are confused about whether there’s two press conferences, two outcomes? I think they are confused by differing descriptions of the same venue, but who knows? Clueless.
12:37pm
RNZ live, waiting. The parliamentary correspondent doesn’t know what the outcome is! You can tell in his voice he really doesn’t know. I don’t see how Luxon can hang on because he is so fatally wounded by this process. Two coup attempt put downs in five months is terribly destabilising, and not to resolve it is untenable. There is no credibility in that scenario.
12:43pm
Katie Bradford live on Herald livestream staking out the tiles, waiting.
12:50pm
My guess is that they are late with the presser because Luxon is bargaining to save some face with a grace period of transition so he can bow out in a few days. But that won’t happen, they don’t respect him enough – end it today!
God…
THE TENSION
THE TENSION!
12:52pm
Luxon speaking! His high voice, with characteristic CEO false confidence, is coming from somewhere. After shutting down multiple open video tabs I realise it’s coming from ye old worlde radio. I turn the volume dial. He’s giving some pat part of a speech, I’ve got no idea what he’s going to say. And then: something about “Confidence vote” and “I have full support.”
12:53pm
And that’s it – a one minute presser. He keeps on.
Oh no! The worst outcome for National and a delicious own goal. Like a dysfunctional family pretending that no-one can hear their bickering they will go on with gritted teeth to an inevitable hammering on November 7.
After reviewing the micro-presser I find that when Luxon says “unity” both Simeon Brown and Louise Upston have reactions in unison indicating apprehension most would say is guilt. I take it they are the protagonists in the drama with Penk as maybe the goofy go-between. Erica – I don’t know.
The odds of a National collapse to near 25% is quite possible now. There is so little credibility in any of this line up. No one wants the leadership because no one wants to own the outcome. Luxon is the least able to deal with crises because his CEO track record is to kick every can down the road for someone else to deal with after he’s gone. Now that his own leadership is the crisis it is completely irresolvable. How close was that vote today?
I’m really glad they kept Luxon as leader. He’s a pretty decent vote loser. Lots of conservatives don’t like him for some strange reason. Because he is not a “leader”. Whatever that means.
Yes! I’m absolutely delighted they kept Uncle Fester in charge. He is the best thing for the opposition.
Just bad leadership, plain and simple. Now it’s just all knives out. What I’d be interested to see if if Luxon is graceful enough to stand down after elections or will he be deluded enough to cling on and be dragged out kicking and screaming.
That pitchfork doesn’t have enough prongs on it. It needs one for each of the 5 villains identified by Hooten and Vance.
But poor old Luxon couldn’t sack all of them so he’s trying to tell us now that the main two, Stanford and Bishop had nothing to do with yesterday’s fiasco. That leaves room for others to be impaled on the pitchfork, Upston and there must be someone else looking guilty.
This time next week, Penk will realise he’s actually relieved that he’ll be out of it. It’s going to be a bloodbath after the election and he won’t be there to get splattered.
So, it was all;
Chris-Cross, Henky-Penky, Naughty Naughty Nat!
Two outcomes for luckless Luxon.
1. He wins election, and the Nats who love a good xmas barbi, carve him up.
2. He does not win the election, and never enters Parliament again, for he is not a back bencher.
Jesus! The ol natzo’s aye? What a pack of mafia-like scum. Please, please, try to understand that since the delivery of roger douglas’s infectious disease aka neoliberalism we’ve had no politics. Instead, we have commerce and commerce should be a profanity along with ” shit, piss, fuck, cunt, cock-sucker, mother-fucker and tits and commerce. ( Thank you George Carlin. )
Farmers earn our currency… y’know what?, let’s call currency ‘money’. Our farmers earn our money. It’s that simple. However, they’ve had a tiny percentage of their money removed from them then spent to create the tourism glitter that feeds a dribble or two of tourist money into the freeloading general populaces designer hand bags and to create budget-cities that now, owing to their burgeoning homeless populations look more like South African ghettos to simply distract to allow for a crop dusting of lies. And I know that, and I bet, you know that too, so why the secrecy? Why the obfuscation? How,’s Auckland? How,’s Christchurch? How’s the other cities who’s urban work-forces merely launder farmer earned money while chomping down that meat and them potatoes? Not so fucking good and getting worse is my observation and that’s because the Rats in the woodpile have taken over the Big House and its master bedroom then moved into the Kitchen and have eaten all the food while the home owners are now living in poverty in a rusty van on the side of the road.
FYI. Metaphor: noun
a figure of speech in which a word or phrase is applied to an object or action to which it is not literally applicable
UB40.
There’re rats in our kitchen so you gonna do?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c42z3LAGyTM
Studio version .
https://youtu.be/jausD8qsnKU?si=TL0pVDkAJWhEaiFQ
Find Engel, and park.
I think the relevant expression is: “fight you bastards!”
The only one who comes out of this with a shred of dignity and integrity is Chris Penk.
He has far better credentials and qualifications for the future than any of the craven hangers-on who refused to compromise and get behind one leader. They all want it and won’t sacrifice their own petty ambitions. They are all less suitable than Chris Penk.
Another bad move from Luxon, showing himself to be vindictive when he wouldn’t do anything about his foreign minister last week.
Oh well, National has lost one of the few half decent MPs they had. If I lived in Penk’s electorate I’d certainly be ready to let them know in the election, that I disapprove of their behaviour.
Don’t know what Sylvia Wood looks so happy about. She is overseeing a total shambles. Or is that smirk one of dismayed resignation?
Nah. No tears should be shed for Penk.
Penk is a fundamentalist christofacist.
Just look at his voting record.
That said, he is not much worse than the rest of his hopeless bunch of loser mates.
I’m delighted LuxoFlakes is clinging onto his little ego boosting entitlement position of PM. He will help get the bag of dicks booted out in November.
Perhaps, of all the skills a PM needs, running a meeting behind closed doors and getting the result you want is the one our CEO PM has truly mastered. It fits his background where politics in the Boardroom can be as nasty and cut throat as in politics. Call the meeting, set the agenda, run the meeting, and get the result you and your leiutenants want. And afterwards make sure everyone is saying the same thing, 100%, 100%, 100%.
Yeah nah, he’s only hanging around so he can get his knighthood….because….you know, “he’s entitled to the entitlement”….done the hard yards, had to put up with pesky Peters & Thievemore….Jonkee got one…where’s mine?