Latest Roy Morgan Poll = Labour+Green+TPM+TOP Government
Shocker on the rocker, latest Roy Morgan Poll = Labour+Green+TPM+TOP Government
National – 32
NZF – 8.5
ACT – 8.5
Labour – 25.5
Greens – 13.5
TPM – 2
TOP – 8
Look.
Here’s what I think is going on.
Last election there was an enormous amount of post-covid bitterness and it was dumped on Jacinda.
Her leadership saved 20 000 lives, produced some of the best international results and got the country open quicker and with less restrictions than most other countries.
Her great mistake was a desire to only build back to the same inequalities.
We sacrificed equally in an unequal society and the refusal to build beyond caused resentment, anger and hurt.
We had given Labour an unprecedented MMP majority and they did nothing with it.
Jacinda won the Covid War but lost the Covid Peace.
Voters felt their hearts were broken and they turned in anger and voted National, ACT and NZF without reading the fine print.
The majority of those voting National just wanted their house price to go up 10%, they weren’t buying into a race war or culture war revenge fantasies.
The shock of how far Luxon has allowed Seymour and Winston to go romper stomper has disgusted many of these voters who voted National in 2023 and Labour in 2020.
MMP has a built in elasticity to it that is designed to minimise extremism while recognising provincial or indigenous groups wanting political representation.
Social media hate algorithms are polarising society which is empowering ACT and NZF, but the counter weight inside MMP can swing the other way.
We saw this with Te Pati Māori who hit the 5% threshold at the height of the Treaty Principles Referendum and if they hadn’t imploded, that support would be higher.
What we are seeing with the rise of TOP is the centre reacting to the extremism of ACT and NZF.
Second generation migrants, Gen Xers locked out of the housing market and the kids of National Party voters too rich to vote Labour and not Māori enough to vote Green.
There are absolute policy wins that the Left could offer TOP to bring them over to our side of the fence and create a Labour+Green+TPM+TOP Government.
The reality is this – National, ACT and NZF have been a disaster.
They have metaphorically burned books in the library and mocked anyone who has cried.
The result?
- 860 000 kiwis in relative poverty.
- 51% of Māori households going hungry.
- Homelessness caused by their own policy.
- Public services being underfunded.
- 600 000 needing food banks monthly
National, ACT and NZF strangle the common good for their donors interests.
If they win a second term with a more powerful ACT and NZF, National will cave into anything Winston and David demand.
They will cement into place their 19th century white settler privilege and the collateral damage to society will be the icing on their shirt cake.
This Government have gerrymandered the rules around enrolment, impacting 400 000, most of whom voted Left.
They know how close this election will be and that could mean that the election is stolen by the Right to implement even more harsh controversial policy.
National, ACT and NZF’s extremism is to implement the policy platform their wealthy big polluter, property pimp donors pay for.
They use culture war grievance to bait our petty bigotry.
I know we are a better people than the Right believe we are.
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The Opportunity Party are a Right-wing party posing as Centrists to steal votes from the Left.
Whether the Opportunity Party goes into formal coalition with National, or whether they agree to sit on the Cross Benches, TOP have successfully stolen so many votes away from the Left, that they will guarantee an illegitimate National led government.
Why has inflation gone up .Well the NZ dollar is falling faster than Nickys nickers so the cost of everything we import has gone up .The dollar is falling because the economy is fucked .Most companies are now owned off shore so big profits are shipped away and less is pent here so less money in circulation to be spent in smaller businesses .
Bloody hell we import half of our food so because the dollar is worth nothing we have to pay more hence the increase in food prices .
Yep farmers are getting record prices but in reality those prices are worth 15% less than a year ago and their new ute or tractor is costing 15 to20% more so they are not earning big money .Had Fonterra not sold a big slice of them selves more dairy farmers would have been in trouble .Last year a local long term farmer was sold by the receivers because he had taken on debt to keep farming even though he should now be retired to the sea side .
Labour – 25.5 !
Ignoring the huge elephant in the room.
LINO is in no way positioned or has the confidence of the people to offer a credible alternative to the current regime.
Their support only represents their very basic hard core ” I will vote LINO “cause its not the Nasty NATZ without even considering the failure of the party they will vote for.
Kiwi’s are their own worst enemy’s.
Yet you fail to notice the elephant in the room, the current coalition, the worst in virtually every measure in our political history, Labour aren’t part of that.
TOP are heading for double digits baby!!!! 8% now, with three months til the election and the best policies of any NZ political party…….I’m predicting 18% on election night. You heard it here first
Labour at 25.5% is total BS and even the most moronic coalition supporter knows it. Most likely the pollster’s real name is Captain Morgan.
TOP will go with National. There goes your pipedream.
If TOP goes with NACTF and forms Luxon2.0, then TOP will not exist beyond the following election. They will be forever doomed.
bahaha, living your own wet dream more like it!
Could a MP overhang see us with a Green-TOP-MP government, with Labour providing C&S.
The Left cannot win without Men voting for them….fix that first
OK. Now here’s the Countryboy poll based on stats gleaned from the interweb.
Of a total age-enabled ( 18 + ) = @ 4,179,400 voters only 2,883,412 people bothered voting last election.
No wonder then that rogers neoliberalism’s still a popular choice for the terminally greedy. And lets also ponder the implications of my crude stats. Of that vote-able population lets subtract the 4% primary industry farmer population who earn 100% of our income. So. 2,883,412 voters who could be arsed voting then subtract 4% as farmers = 2,768,075 others who voted minus 4% as farmers = 115337 farmers which is wrong. Supposedly . ( My head’s hurting.) I bet I’m wrong on so many levels yet even if I factor in my dumbassedness the figures are still fucking outrageous. No wonder the Over Lords of our country don’t want to make voting compulsory because compulsory voting would show up a glaring anomaly within the population numbers versus those earning the money numbers.
Farmers? You’re getting fucked without the kissing.
This government is also making it difficult for groups to enroll to vote as well as the lack of people enrolled that you have mentioned especially the under 25 age group so it’s an uphill struggle from the start for any alternative to the current government. At least they are so inept that the few conservative voters with integrity can see their problems and are looking for other options so that’s some help.
I doubt National is poling at 32% although it is good to see the other two COC percentages lowering
Things are just going through the roof with this COC Government no respite for the lower socioeconomic groups. When will it end the top end of town is winning all the way to the Bank.
If you look back at previous Roy Morgan polls they generally overestimate National’s support by quite a margin and I think this one does the same.
50 percent what change 50 percent want to keep the current government. While all is not good many can see the Coalition had turned the country around and heading for growth and then the tarriffs and oil price shock stopped it . Thinking voters except Labour would be less able to handle these factors especially with Greens dragging them backward.
This is laughable. So many just assume National is good at the economy that they never actually look at the situation properly. My question is how come the economy isn’t that bad until National starts to trying to fix it?
Of course I don’t care about the answer because National and Labour are both neoliberal and taking us backwards – it’s just a matter of who fast at this point in time
Righto Trev, time for you to have a bit of a lie down…
The evidence shows that this government turned the country around and are heading for the cliff, I guess that blaming Trump is a change from blaming Labour but the ship has been sinking for most of the last 3 years and your refusal to acknowledge that is nothing to boast about. I won’t comment on the quality of the opposition except to say that the existing government makes them look better.
“the Coalition had turned the country around and heading for growth and then the tarriffs and oil price shock stopped it ”
You said that two years ago and the country’s economy has been tanked and now record unemployment, your idea of turning the corner is akin to those proclaiming the earth is flat, just another moron.
“The majority of those voting National just wanted their house price to go up 10%, they weren’t buying into a race war or culture war revenge fantasies.”
I would suggest that support for the current govt is lessening not due the above but more to the cost of living crisis / failure to “Get New Zealand Back on Track”.