Latest Polling shows Labour/Green/TPM/TOP Government
National’s pain is no gain for Labour in latest RNZ-Reid Research poll
In normal times, National would be panic-stations after a sub-30 percent poll, with no path to power, and a leader who’s never been less popular.
But these are far from normal times.
After the last few weeks’ turmoil, the party would have been braced for an even uglier result.
The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll isn’t a ringing endorsement for the coalition government by any means.
The three governing parties are mostly unchanged from the last poll in July and unable to form a government, the prime minister’s personal popularity is worse, and a growing number of voters think the country is on the wrong track.
RNZ
As TDB has been pointing out for some time, the path towards kicking this terrible Government out of office relies on Labour + Greens + TPM + TOP.
Egos have to be put aside and tribalism binned if we want to see the end of the most anti-Māori, anti-Treaty, anti-disabled, anti-worker, anti-renter, anti-beneficiary and ant-environment Government we’ve seen in our lifetimes.
Let’s get in formation shall we?
TOP
Some on the Left are convinced TOP are a trojan horse and bristle at their inclusion and their ascension but my simple response to every single one of them is – do the math, where are the votes going to come from?
If the Left are pissy with TOP they should remind themselves that they drove men out of the movement and they have ended up in TOP!
They need to remind themselves that when Labour had an unprecedented MMP majority, they did sweet bugger all with it!
AND they need to remind themselves that TOP recently changed the rule where their Board can veto the Caucus.
The issue isn’t to get tribal and hateful towards TOP, the issue is how can we offer them something National, ACT and NZF won’t.
TPM
Some on the Left are pissy that TPM gets included but because National will generate an overhang of anywhere between 6 to 8 seats, we will need the overhang TPM will generate with their candidate only voting strategy.
They need to remind themselves that if we are going to get any real meaningful change in policy that John Tamihere needs to be the lead negotiator against Labour.
They need to remember that honouring the Treaty matters and that Māori are the future demographic and won’t tolerate being second class citizens in their own nations any longer.
TPM are VERY likely to win 5 Māori Electorate seats with their candidate only strategy.
Greens
Some on the Left are pissy with the woke identity politics of the Greens, but the reality is they are turning up at this election with the best policies for EVERYONE. They are actually looking at solutions and the Greens on their wokest day is preferable to racist cookers any month of the year.
While their polling looks mediocre, I believe they could easily hit 30% Party vote in the Māori Electorates this election, (up from 10% last election) and watch them surge in the Specials, especially from the exodus to Australia.
LABOUR
Many on the Left are pissy with Labour’s lack of bold policy but they must be the backbone to any actual change in Government.
Don’t look to Chippy for the socialist utopia, that ain’t his bag, but he is a decent bugger who would not have committed to any of the policy cruelty we have seen under this Government.
As Thomas Coughlan noted, Labour’s budget priorities will see $137b into investment. Is it enough? Shit no! But it’s a hell of a lot better than what we have right now.
We can not allow the perfect to eclipse the good and right now a Labour/Green/TPM/TOP Government is 100% times better than the cruelty and malice we have under this Government.
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“we love talking about policy. So welcome anyone that wants to have a grown-up conversation about those things.”
Qiulae Wong
After receiving heaps of favourable wall-to-wall uncritical coverage from the Liberal and Left social media and mainstream media outlets, Opportunity front person Qiulae Wong now avoids Left bloggers to converse with the ‘grown-ups’
In an ‘exclusive’ with Right-Wing grown up, Duncan Garner, Qiulae Wong talks up TOP’s chances of getting tnto coalition with National.
Exclusive Interview: TOP Leader Qiulae Wong on TOP’s 10-Year Plan & Luxon
The Opportunities Party is trending upward in the polls, sitting over 6% and tracking toward Parliament. But with National Leader Christopher Luxon ruling them out, what is TOP’s actual path into government?
Duncan Garner
45K subscribers
9.4K views
Aug 26, 2026
[exerpts from the transcript]
Duncan Garner:
Opportunity party leader Qiulae Wong joins me for a revealing 30 minute one-on-one interview. Top is on its way to parliament based on the current polling…..
….We also get into Christopher Luxen’s decision to rule top out. Wong says he was premature and should have kept the door open….
….just on the prime minister ruling you out. Was that a mistake?
Qiulae Wong:
It appeared so….
…. But ultimately at the end of the day I think if they need us to form a government not many people would believe they wouldn’t pick up the phone….
… I think that there’s lots in our policy platform that does align with what they want to achieve….
Duncan Garner:
…. you remain open to go into coalition with national?
Qiulae Wong:
Yep. We do. Yeah. And and I appreciate that tax is a big idea and we I’ve said since the very beginning of this year that we don’t expect something like that to happen overnight….
TOP’s Land lk Tax & UBI
Qiulae Wong:
I think it’s it’s pretty unlikely that that we can push that through, and I don’t think it’s fair to be honest, to the New Zealand public, as a minor party to push something, to force something like that through, without having buy-in from other parties… .
Iddly the bulk of the adult conversation was on the details of a Land Tax and UBI, Odd because Qiulae Wong had said they wouldn’t ;push that through without buy-in from other parties. Both Labour and National have ruled out a Land Tax and a UBI and Qiulae Wong has accepted this.
All sides have agreed that the Land Tax and the UBI are off the table,, so what issues will be on the table for discussion in the coalition talks?
Qiulae Wong has said that she will release tOP’s bottom line policies for coalition talks closer to the election.
So far Qiulae Wong has released just one bottom line issue.
Qiulae Wong has announced that TOP will defend the Climate Change Commission.
The Climate Change Commission is a toothless tiger, With zero statutary powers, other than to make recommendations to government.
.
Quilae Wong:
“TOP will form a coalition with your party if you agree to keep the Climate Change Commission.”
Christopher Luxon;
“Done”
·
RNZ Reid Research Poll – 24 August 2026:
30.8% Proportion of poll respondents who said New Zealand was heading in the right direction under the current government.
51.8% Proportion of poll respondents who said New Zealand was heading in the wrong direction under the current government.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics_election-2026/1093636/rnz-reid-research-poll-opportunity-in-kingmaker-position-luxon-and-hipkins-approval-slumps
Daily Blog – 26 August 2026:
“As TDB has been pointing out for some time, the path towards kicking this terrible Government out of office relies on Labour + Greens + TPM + TOP”.
Ain’t gonna happen.
Luckilly for us, democracy is not just about having a vote, (which can be manipulated).
Our democracy gaurantees us the right to public assembly and protest.
We need to start organising ourselves to protest the biggest act of political treachery in a generation.
Not since the 1996 election, when Winston Peters said he would, quote; “put Jim Bolger in opposition where he belongs,” and then went back on his word, will there have been a bigger betrayal of the democratic will of the majority of voters.
Qiulae Wong, has not gone as far as misleading voters as explicitly as Winston Peters did in ’96, in fact the Opportunity front person has increasingly talked up, The Opportunity Party giving confidence and supply to a National Party led coalition government.
However, despite the fact that Qiulae Wong has not been as explicit in misleading voters as Peters was in ’96, does not give the Opportunity Party Caucus and Executive a mandate to steal the election for the Right.
Polls show that TOP are getting the majority of their support from voters who want a Center-Left government, The RNZ Reid Research poll revealed that a majority of voters, (by an admittedly slim margin), want a Labour led government, the same poll revealed that this trend was especially pronounced among Opportunity Party supporters, Opportunity Party supporters want a Labour led coalition government by a factor of 2 to 1 a factor far higher than the rest of the population.
I expect that the Exit Polls will also indicate that a majority of voters want a change of government. I predict that the Opportunity Party leadership will ignore the Exit Polls as well. Just as they say they will ignore the will of their members,
According to Qiulae Wong, TOP membership will not be making the decision on which Party TOP will support, originally saying the Opportunity Party Executive had veto power, it now looks likely the decision will be made by the Opportunity Party Caucus.
National’s paranoia about anything to do with tax are a sure sign that they haven’t clueabout how to run a country.
Failing miserably to supposedly get the country ‘Back on Track’ and borrowing to make changes to tax settings has been disastrous and now they have the temerity to lie about Labour’s tax settings by spending 100’s of 1000’s of dollars on massive billboards up and down the country rather than demonstrate and cohesive message as to what they plan to do about their self – inflicted clusterfuck.
They are as dead and as dumb as a government can be and as we build to the full exposure of their ineptitude
a white-wash is inevitable!
The Greens and now TPM have announced their ” Kiwi tax plan ”
The problem I have with supporting the Greens again in November is that they have by far the best polices as they do every three years but then they either get sidelined and bullied out of the way by LINO or won’t fight for their polices when LINO decides they need them to stay in office.
As the Alliance is the only other alternative for a real vote for progressive policies unfortunately at this stage they are not in the running. Yet.
And TPM will if in a position to negotiate will confront the LINO shadow cabinet and will expect policy concessions or walk away. They have suffered enormous damage this year and can they present a stable partnership after everything that has happened.
What to do with my vote.
Or join the thousands who are refusing to endorse any of the parties that are in parliament.
Agree 1000% this would have to be the most Anti-Maori, Anti-Lower Socio Economic, Anti TOW and Anti-Beneficary Government that I have witnessed in the 70 years I have been in NZ. I don’t understand where this lot National/ACT/NZF is coming from apart from helping their Corporate Sponsors both Offshore and here in NZ. Follow the Money Honey !!!!
Good article with sound arguments. Let’s hope these numbers hold up on election day.
I really think that the Greens have learnt their lesson over identity politics. They undoubtedly have the best tax policies of any party. I listen to the two ‘main’ contenders and I am flawed by the endless he says and he says, it is pathetic. I just want to know what they are going to do. Not all this damn bitching.
Te Pati Maori and the Greens are the future of this country and I am appalled that any union is still tied to Labour.
Lets hope TPM and the Greens work together on their bottom lines, hopefully all around taxes and force Labour to swallow a big fat rat.
Agree Labour are National Lite and still appear to be fence sitting wringing their hands waiting their turn to Sit on the Throne.
The majority of TOPs 5.3% would come from white, under 50, middle class females working in white-collar jobs.
As much as you want to kid yourself that is the truth in the matter.
Who know full well that they can’t survive if they voted right.