Election 2026 Predictions Update and why this could be the Year of the Overhang

ByMartyn Bradbury

With 70 days left to enrol, here’s my updated Election Predictions:

Labour – 32

I think there might be a couple more policies released before the election, but there won’t be anything big. Chippy is selling basic decency and stability, and for many shell shocked Kiwis, that is enough.

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National – 26

The coup fiasco only exposes how divided National really are. Bad overnight polling was the catalyst for the most recent coup attempt and with Luxon actually getting worse,  I think when people see him in the debates, he will be horribly under whelming.

Greens – 15

I think they will do very well in the specials and I think they have a real chance this election to pick up 30% of the Māori Electorate  vote.

ACT – 10

Paul Henry is the perfect parrot clown to whitewash ACT’s brown shirts. As National fails, voters will turn to Paul Henry.

NZF – 9

Their brand is now just toxicity and I think their racism has peaked.

TOP – 6%

I think the polls clearly tell us that they will absolutely get over the 5% threshold now.

TPM – 1%

TPM will announce a clear policy to candidate vote only in the Māori Electorates and push their Party vote to the Greens.

Māori Electorates:

Te Tai Tokerau – Aperahama Edwards is a magnificent candidate for TPM and I believe his mana will see him win this seat.

Tāmaki Makaurau – This will be an interesting fight between Oriini Kaipara and Kerrin Leonie

Hauraki-Waikato – Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke is a remarkable candidate and I think she will hold.

Waiariki – I think Rawiri will hold this

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti – Cushla is an incredible electorate MP, she will hold this.

Te Tai Hauāuru – I think Debbie will hold this.

Te Tai Tonga – I think Mananui Ramsden from Labour will take this seat.

 

The Year of the Overhang

What is fascinating will be the role of the overhang this year.

I think TPM could win 5 electorates while recycling their party vote to the Greens and that will create an overhang, but also, National very much could generate one as well!

National 25–26% + 38–40 electorate victories = perhaps 6–8 overhang seats.

Suppose the election produced something like:

  • TPM: 1% + 5 electorates → perhaps +3/+4 overhang
  • National: 27–28% + 38 electorates → potentially another +3/+4 overhang

You could conceivably end up with a Parliament of around 126–128 MPs.

Crucially, you couldn’t then use the normal 61-seat majority assumption.

128 requires 65.

That’s potentially very important in a close National/ACT/NZF versus Labour/Green/TPM/TOP election because both sides could generate overhangs simultaneously.

This could be the Election of the Overhang.

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6 Comments

  3. “there might be a couple more policies released before the election, but there won’t be anything big. Chippy is selling basic decency”

    Basic decency would see the left stop taxing food when there are 600,000 people relying on food banks.

    Removal of gst on groceries would provide $4billion demand stimulus to the stagnant recession hit city economies.

    NO GST ON FOOD!

    Reply

  4. At present there is more overlap between ACT and Opp when it comes to tax policy. This is something that is being overlooked by Labour and it is a major risk. Hipkins rigid statements on tax policy is for the NZ media – not the NZ voter.

    Reply

  5. I think it’s too early to guarantee Opp sits on the left block. I have a nagging fear that Labour are going cold-shoulder Opp (given the sour look an Hipkins face any time he fronts the media) and lose the post-election negotiating advantage.
    Opp will relish the chance to confound expectations and show themselves as non-partisan and pragmatic.
    Opp are not a simple left-wing party – they are young, visionary and ambitious and they will want to prove themselves – to the business community as much as anyone else.

    Reply