BREAKING: TVNZ Poll – Labour+Green+TOP+TPM Government
Boom
National – 29
Labour – 30
ACT – 9
NZF – 8
Greens – 12
TOP – 8
TPM – 1
TDB told you TOP would be an influence this year, all the way back in January.
If TPM and Greens strike a kakariki MMP voting alliance, they generate an overhang while ensuring Greens remain 3rd highest Party.
National self mutilating itself isn’t exactly going to help.
I think ACT jump because of Paul Henry and NZF sink because they are just so toxic and racist.
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TPM will be lucky to win more than 1 seat this year. I think it will be Labour, Greens, TOP.
No, you’re wrong Kiwiana TPM will win at least 3 seats and get at least 2% of the party vote, note I said at least 3 seats they could win more seats they have some good candidates and if our people vote smart. For example, Labours Ikaroa Rawhiti candidate Cushla is number 7 on Labours’ lists so we could give Labour our party vote and TPM our electoral seat to Maxwell the TPM candidate.
Luxon will give Qiulae Wong a seat in Cabinet and the Foreign Minister role, cacated by Winston Peters, and it will be all over.
The Opportunity Party are a Right Wing party posing as Centrists to hoover up Left votes,
TOP are a millionaires vanity project with a rented leader and no internal organisation, let alone party democracy.
In recent interviews, TOP leader Qiulae Wong spends more time talking about why TOP can do a deal with National more than any other subject.
TOP will return a National led minority government, through three mechanisms, either through formal coalition or by sitting on the cross benches, or by stealing enough votes from the Left to tip the balance toward the Right.
An RNZ Reid Research poll revealed that Opportunity Party Supporters wanted a Labour led government by a margin of two-to-one, which prompted Qiulae Wong to say that decision will not be made by the TOP party membership.
Following Christopher Luxon saying he would not work with TOP because of their tax policies, Qiulae Wong said that the OPPortunity Party tax policies are “Talking points” not “bottom lines”.
Treachery and treason there is always an excuse for it.
Whatever the reason I will never get used to it.
Dire Straits- Private investigation
Be very careful where you place your vote if you think its worth the effort.
This morning one of my bleeps took one for the team and asked to be convinced not to vote for Opportunity. Like me, they’re a long-time Green voter. Like me, they see Opportunity as having some attractive policies on land taxes, the environment, and Te Tiriti. And with the party now consistently polling over 5%, but not so high that we can be sure they’ll make it, is it worth left voters to lend their votes to get them over the line?
It was a really useful discussion, and you should read the whole thing. If you’re that interested, you should probably read Josh Drummond’s take on it from last month as well. Meanwhile, here’s my thoughts.
I have a lot of problems with TOP. Their origins as the vehicle for rich prick Gareth Morgan’s political ideas around taxation and UBI. Their past arsehole behaviour under both Morgan and later leaders. Their undemocratic and completely top-down party structure. Their dodgy techbro funders. I also have some problems with their political philosophy – a naive-to-arrogant technocratic rationalism which fails to consider or simply does not think it is important that other people might not see their conclusions as “obvious”, or might even disagree with them, and so struggles to deal with that fact. I’m somewhat sympathetic here, because you need idealists in any productive political coalition, to drive things forward – but TOP’s demonstrated inability to cope when their ideas met opposition in the past (see: TOP 2017 and the Gareth Morgan / Sean Plunket shitshow) is not a good sign, and suggests a party culture problem as well.
https://norightturn.blogspot.com/2026/08/why-im-not-voting-for-opportunity.html
I have read comments on other blogs that the media are trying to influence the election. I don’t know if that is true or not.
You serious ?
I want to stress that those are not my views. Some people are obviously being very paranoid.
THE DISCONTENT simmering inside the National Party caucus has burst into the open, with a faction of MPs openly questioning whether Christopher Luxon can continue leading a party that is struggling to hold even a third of the electorate.
But National’s crisis is not unique. Labour, its main electoral rival, is facing the same erosion of support, the same sceptical public, and the same reliance on minor parties that themselves inspire little enthusiasm. The political centre is not merely wobbling; it is collapsing under the weight of an economic model that none of the parliamentary parties are willing to abandon.
It is tempting—especially for the many commentators who prefer politics as theatre—to blame National’s troubles on Luxon’s habit of producing politically embarrassing gaffes. But the deeper problem is not his communication style. It is the context in which those missteps land. Voter discontent over the cost of living, housing insecurity, stagnant wages, and deteriorating public services has become the defining feature of New Zealand politics. These bread-and-butter issues will dominate the election campaign because they dominate people’s lives. A leader who cannot convincingly speak to that reality is doomed to flounder, but even a more polished leader would still be constrained by the party’s commitment to austerity.
Some National MPs insist the party’s woes stem from Luxon’s failure to connect with the electorate. But the electorate knows exactly what Luxon and his government stand for: the continuation of an economic status quo that has failed them. They have rejected it. Luxon’s personal shortcomings may accelerate the decline, but they are not its cause. The cause is structural. It is the refusal of the political establishment to confront the consequences of decades of market-driven policy, privatisation, and underinvestment in public goods.
https://nzagainstthecurrent.blogspot.com/2026/08/christopher-luxon-is-just-sympton-of.html
Does the left bloc need TPM? They are still a mess and haven’t said peep for months. They are a shadow of what they used to be and of what they still could be, but it’s time for a management and leadership refresh. Time for the next generation of Maori to take the reigns and possibly a term without government responsibility so they can do the mahi that they need to do.
Opp and the Greens are like political Siamese twins and Labour have done almost nothing for 3 years and spoken not more than half a dozen words in all that time.
The Starmer strategy.
Given what you said Champagne Socialist Labour don’t have to do too much yet, as the COC are turning on one another becoming a bit feral. And after yesterday’s fiasco National has shown with all the backstabbing why we can’t trust them again. Labour just needs to keep chipping away and Chippy needs to turn it up a notch at the debates (bring his A game) which I am sure he will.
As long as he can act like a relaxed and normal human being before the debates – instead of looking like he’s got something better to do and would rather be doing it.
More importantly, the Labour Partys complete lack of any form of fiscal policy that differs from the coalitions is a big concern. Again – the Starmer strategy.
There is no way 9% of the population are stupid enough to vote for Mr.Bean… couldn’t organise a pissup in a brewery rascist… Seymour ..and his offsider ..the village idiot goon…Henry.
Once Henry gets more exposure during the election campaign people will soon realise what an airhead he is and Seymour’s tired old rascist stupidity will have warn very very thin…
It’ll be …yeah yeah..is that all you’ve got…goodbye!!
What a shit show that would be as a Govvernment
Agree
It would be a better shit show than the shit show and complete fucking disaster the last 3 years have served up.
Really? I would give that combination 3 to 6 months.
The shit show as what we saw yesterday Nathan with all the two faces standing behind their leader all looking guilty after they had been putting their knives into his back. Lux-one couldn’t sack them all, so dopey Penky became the sacrificial lamb baaaaa.
The shit show was what we saw yesterday Nathan with all the two faces standing behind their leader all looking guilty after they had been putting their knives into his back. Lux-one couldn’t sack them all, so dopey Penky became the sacrificial lamb baaaaa.
We witnessed a shit show yesterday by National round two bring on round three
Luxon is definitely doomed.
He can fuck off back to Planet Key in Hawaii
We should not wish ill of others comrade. Luxon is a human being like the rest of us and has people who lover and care for him and he deserves civility at the very least.