One of the sanest and most informed voices

Russia can build its military vehicles and artillery faster than Europe.
“The Russian presence in Ukraine at the end of 2024 stood at roughly 700,000 troops, far more than the 2022 invasion force. Russian defence production has been rapidly ramped up (Wolff et al, 2024). In 2024 alone, Russia produced and refurbished an estimated 1,550 tanks, 5,700 armoured vehicles and 450 artillery pieces of all types. It also deployed 1,800 long-range Lancet loitering munitions 3 . Compared to 2022, this represents a 220 percent increase in tank production, 150 percent in armoured vehicles and artillery, and 435 percent in long-range loitering munitions”
https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/defending-europe-without-us-first-estimates-what-needed.

Maybe they know something you dont.
Because they havrn’t modified the conditions necessary for a settlement

The gain for Russia in an early ceasefire is a restoration of normal economic arrangements, end of sanctions and end of actual war. These will all really matter to Russia.

Among other sources, I follow the various websites on the drawdown of Russian armour from their various stockpiles. Virtually the vehicles in the stockpiles are all from pre 1990. There were originally well over 10,000 vehicles. Basically two thirds have now been drawn down, those still in the stockpiles are mostly pre 1960 vehicles. Russia can build a couple of hundred modern armoured vehicles per year, maybe a bit more, plus refurbish a few hundred per year. Russia now faces a continued reduction of armoured vehicles in their active fleet. Russia has lost several thousand armoured vehicles over the last three years. They lose far more per year than they can replace, especially with the massive reduction in their stockpiles.

It is the same story with aircraft and especially helicopters. The attrition rate is well beyond the capacity to replace.

Russia therefore has enormous incentive to settle now. They keep what they have got. Which is fair chunk of Ukraine, essentially 25% of the pre 2014 Borders. Future territorial gains, based on the last year of combat, will be relatively minor but those gains will came at huge cost.

In short Russia has every incentive to settle.

“I think you are living in the past Wayne.”
A succinct observation, applicable to not a few, but fortunately it doesn’t matter.