Bank Economists promising green shoots (again)
Westpac economists tip return to growth this quarter as economy shakes off Iran war
Westpac economists have forecast the economy will return to growth in the current quarter as it shakes off the disruptions of the Iran war, according to a new report.
“Despite a rocky few months, the recovery is resuming and the outlook is encouraging,” Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold said in the bank’s Economic Overview report.
Eckhold said while economic growth was likely flat in the June quarter, it was forecast to grow at 2% over 2026, accelerating to 3% in 2027.
“We remain of the view that the economy can shake off the worries and deliver better outcomes ahead.”
NZ Herald
Capitalism LOVES to fuck.
But it’s a VERY nervous fucker and needs a vast circle of economists and business journalists forever being optimistic and cheering positive messages of support to keep Capitalism’s ‘animal spirits’ positive and rooting.
If ONE negative word is uttered that is critical, Capitalism loses its boner and orgy of free market neoliberalism comes to a crashing halt.
That’s why Treasury, the Commentators and Bank Economists are always talking things up. That’s why the majority of them have all been wrong with their economic predictions for the last 12 months.
Each time the stats come in, the economy is worse than they had predicted.
Now we have Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold telling us, ‘Always look on the bright side of life’ with a very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very optimistic report.
Here’s why I’m not optimistic.
I looked at his report, here’s why I’m not optimistic.
Hilariously Westpac acknowledge the damage the super El Niño can cause the NZ Economy...
It identifies several potential hits: reduced pasture growth could cause earlier dairy cow dry-offs and lower milk production; sheep and beef farmers could face weaker pasture growth; and prolonged drought, heat stress and water restrictions could reduce kiwifruit, apple and wine yields.
…but they say…
“Given the uncertainty surrounding El Niño, we have assumed no material impact on commodity prices over the coming year.”
…r-i-g-h-t.
So by removing the worst El Niño on record, the economy might grow?
That’s the level of confidence we are advancing with is it?
This sounds very, very, very, very, very, very optimistic.
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What do westpac economists know that nobody else does? The Iran war isn’t over, it hasn’t been settled to the satisfaction of all sides. That won’t happen while ‘Rump is alive.
So therefore, these green shoots are just like the last lot of green shoots. ‘Rumps firey breath will soon singe them.
“So therefore, these green shoots are just like the last lot of green shoots. ‘Rumps firey breath will soon singe them.”
Poetic, and most likely accurate…
Trump loses mid term and at the same time loses much control and the war stops.
Many areas of NZ are doing well especially those depending on the rural economy.
We need the same energy to kick start Auckland and Wellington. The Coalition has sown the correct seeds and we will see the results over the next year
Some would say Labour had sown the correct seeds too till No-Boats stomped along the rows pulling them all out and then started again with inferior seeds, too late in the season.
Who is to say we couldn’t all have been better off with a Labour govt. carrying on through with its plans which were already in place? We’d have owed less and we’d have a few of the things that were promised, already.
The farming sector is the source of a few of our major problems but not to worry they will have their hands out soon wanting money when the weather gets tough over summer.
I’m glad the south feels buoyant, but most people don’t live there getting the benefit of that. You need to remember how defeated you felt in the aftermath of the earthquakes and show some concern for the north which came to your aid and never stopped helping until you got on your feet again.
Let’s hope your prediction re Iran is correct. If mid-terms are counted properly, that might be the case. But it’ll take more than a reliable source of fuel to pick up the pieces in the north. It will be a slow recovery, even with the best govt. because so much damage has been inflicted.
The people dying on the streets don’t feel the love obviously. Your rose-tinted glasses are blinding you to the blue truth.