Comments on: Are We Heading For A “Comical Ali” Situation As Applies (Social) Media Sentiment Upon Ukraine?

By: In Vino

In Vino — Mon, 14 Mar 2022 10:19:46 +0000

James – I remember when the US Department of Information openly affirmed that Tibet was the 5th province of the great nation of China. Do you?
(Funnily enough, when China turned communist they revised that opinion. Enough to make one a cynic, isn’t it?)

By: Nick J

Nick J — Mon, 14 Mar 2022 08:53:05 +0000

In reply to In Vino. Yes very optimistic given that somehow the demoralised badly beaten Russians are in total control, advancing everywhere. But hell, a Ukie throwing a rock at them is a concept to please some optomists. A more realistic view would see Ukraine realise that the West isnt coming to help and negotiate a deal.

By: Nick J

Nick J — Mon, 14 Mar 2022 08:46:10 +0000

In reply to Bonnie.

Putin an own goal? Theres a bigger game going on and Putin has to win to survive, maybe for Russia to survive.

Russia is the worlds biggest exporter of energy, oil and gas. USA wants to own and control that resource plus rare minerals, grain etc. They have for 20 years tried to get control, Putin has thwarted them. Hence NATO pushes east, the West tries to destabilise Russia.

The sanctions are the biggest push and will be fatal to either Putins Russia or to the US petrodollar. If the Russians can trade the energy the world needs via China and India etc, and clear trade in yuan or gold the US financial empire falls.

Big stakes. So far the Saudis have refused calls from Biden, he is desperately trying to court Venezuela. The Chinese meanwhile are open to Russia. The US cant backfill their European allies energy needs. Russias offshore cash and gold has effectively been seized, Russia will probably nationalise all Western assets in Russia. Oil price has gone ballistic. Advantage Vlad.

By: Nick J

Nick J — Mon, 14 Mar 2022 08:24:53 +0000

Hunter Biden, Burisma, laptops, huge dollars. Graft from the now President.
We should choose more respectable friends.

By: In Vino

In Vino — Mon, 14 Mar 2022 07:26:04 +0000

In reply to Andrew. Andrew, your optimism is refreshing.

By: Tui

Tui — Mon, 14 Mar 2022 06:58:16 +0000

In reply to Francesca.

@Francesca, DP and MR – thanks for the notes and links I’ll check them out. I’m being sloppy, too much focus on international strategic issues and not enough on internal power struggles and their respective backers and agitators.

By: Wayne

Wayne — Mon, 14 Mar 2022 05:37:26 +0000

In reply to Tui.

I think Putin would be crossing a red line if he attacks Moldova. Although it is not a member of NATO, the NATO nations might feel obliged to defend Moldova, if the Moldovan government asks. It is simply too far west.

As for the Black Sea, I expect there will be a massive battle over Odessa. Russia would probably win, but that is certainly not a guaranteed outcome.

As for a peace settlement, I could see that being done on the Crimea, with a land bridge linking to the Donbass. Maybe with Ukraine being neutral, but with security guarantees, including from NATO.

Depends on how the war plays out over the next month or so.

It is worth recalling that in 1940, Finland, which is much smaller than Ukraine, was able to fight Russia to a standstill.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Mon, 14 Mar 2022 03:39:09 +0000

I think you’ve rather missed the point Curwen. Sure Russia will eventually ‘win’ the war because it will just keep piling in more and more resources until it does so. However:
> The much feared Russian army has been made to look rather foolish by a tiny, ill equipped citizen force to the extent that the Russians have been forced to temporarily retreat and reformulate their plan of attack, and that will inevitably be to carpet bomb the cities relentlessly until there’s nothing left of any value: A pyrrhic victory.
> Even without the assistance of the Ukrainians, the Russian army fell on its face. Mobile equipment was unreliable and broke down on the road to Kiev, its conscript soldiers were untrained and demotivated, and its generals were clearly past their sell-by date (you don’t line vehicles up in a row, exposed, on a main road and not expect them to get picked off) . Western military planners will have taken notice. A western force with modern air power would eat this shambles for breakfast!
> Having gained their objectives the Russians then have to hold them against millions of angry Ukrainians armed by the west to harry whatever forces remain in the country. Could this be Putin’s Vietnam?
> Lastly the soft, liberal west got an education in realpolitik. European NATO partners are rearming, non-aligned Sweden and Finland are considering joining NATO and Germany will end its reliance on Russian gas.

By: Francesca

Francesca — Mon, 14 Mar 2022 02:46:14 +0000

In reply to Tui.

Please don’t make the mistake of thinking Azov is an outlier, there are many far right militia, Right Sector, National Militia and many others
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cohen-ukraine-commentary-idUSKBN1GV2TY
Banderism is deeply imbedded in parts of western Ukraine
https://www.rferl.org/a/banderite-rebrand-ukrainian-police-declare-admiration-for-nazi-collaborators-to-make-a-point/29764110.html

By: Tui

Tui — Mon, 14 Mar 2022 02:12:09 +0000

In reply to Francesca. @Francesca - apologies you are quite right must have had a brain fart.