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  1. Who do the bookies favour to lead the next government in New Zealand?

    Google search

    Bookmakers and political prediction markets are currently locked in a highly competitive, dead-heat split, but the Labour Party and its leader, Chris Hipkins, hold a slight edge over the incumbent National Party….
    … While the race is exceptionally tight ahead of the general election, recent shifts across major books and prediction platforms point to a narrow lead for a left-leaning government:
    On major sportsbooks like Sportsbet, the Labour Party is favored at $1.74, while the incumbent National Party trails closely behind at $2.10.
    • Prediction Markets (Kalshi & Polymarket): On political trading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, traders give the Labour Party a 53% chance of winning the election compared to National’s 48%….

    [Some people will lose a lot of money when TOP inevitably give their support to a National led coalition government, either through a formal coalition, or by sitting on the cross benches]

    The Spinoff:
    What we know about the Opportunity Party vote, in six charts
    Toby Manhire
    July 28, 2026
    https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/28-07-2026/what-we-know-about-the-opportunity-party-vote-in-six-charts

    The National Party has ruled out any post-election deal with the Opportunity Party – whether coalition or confidence-and-supply – with Christopher Luxon making what appeared to be a “captain’s call” on the fly at his post-cabinet press conference on Monday afternoon, declaring that he couldn’t work with “people who want to increase taxes”….

    After Christopher Luxon made his ‘Captain’s Call’ that he couldn’t work with “people who want to increase taxes” Though Luxon didn’t name TOP, the Opportunity Party leader Qiulae Wong quickly responded, saying, if Prime Minister Christopher Luxon “needs us” [to form a government], he will “pick up the phone” and she would answer.

    To make it easier for Christopher Luxon to “pick up the phone”, Qiulae Wong has dropped any increase in taxes from her Party’s 5 bottom lines.

    RNZ political commentators, including Political Editor Jo Moir and Deputy Political Editor Craig McCulloch, described Luxon’s of avoiding talks with TOP as “nonsense,” stating there is no scenario where Luxon would refuse to have a conversation with Qiulae Wong to form a government.

    In 2023 regarding New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, Christopher Luxon acknowledged he would pick up the phone if required to secure a parliamentary majority, with TOP dropping any tax increase, you can bet that Qiulae Wong’s ph. number is on Christopher Luxon’s speed dial.
    You can also safely bet, because she said it, that Qiulae Wong will take that phone call.

    Brace for the biggest act of political treachery since 1996, When Winston Peters said, “If you want National out, vote New Zealand First”.

    Though she has not been as explicit as Winston Peters in lying to the public, Qiulae Wong has been subtle in implying that she would back a Labour led government, stating that she would begin negotiations with the party with the biggest vote first. On current polling, the party with the biggest vote is the Labour Party.

    But, and it is a big but, it is not the first party that Qiulae Wong sits down to negotiate a coalition agreement with, it is the last Party she sits down to negotiate a coalition agreement with, and that party is National.

  2. Absolutely essential article. The thing about MMT is that it just states how the monetary system works at the operational level. And if you think it through it makes sense – the government always meets its commitments – pensions, public sector salaries, unemployment etc – it does this when things are good and when they are bad and it does this regardless of how much the tax take is or bonds issued.
    This is basically Keynesian economics that got the world out of the Great Recession, funded WW2 and rebuilt Europe and Japan afterwards. Despite the apparent ascendence of neoliberalism since the 1980’s in reality Keynesian mechanism continue to underpin the private sector and prevent it from outright collapse – the GCF and COVID both proved that fact. It is government money printing and deficit spending not private sector resilience that maintains economic stability.
    Steve Keene is another good economist on this topic though some knowledge of double entry accounting helps to understand what he is on about.