I think that there are real political choke points looming.
National are in existential trouble.
The current online political culture is shaped by social media hate algorithms and the intense culture war extremism that political landscape generates pushes their more redneck voter base towards ACT while disgusting their moderate floating voter back to Labour.
In this culture war conspiracy swamp you either believe climate change is a socialist hoax or you are queer.
National Moderates recoil from that culture and will walk over to Chippy who will act as their Emotional Support Labrador.
Victory for ACT is winning double digits in the next election and their hard right romper stomper crypto-fascist routine has a hell of a lot more cultural pull from National and NZF than it does from Labour, Greens and Māori Party.
ACTs redneck baiting will win them a larger vote share but cost the Right the next election.
Winston’s extraordinary attack on Chippy during his State of the Nation Speech was a clear signal to those few MPs inside Labour who believe they must deal with NZF (because the Māori Party are too extreme), that the only way Winnie deals is if Chippy is removed as Leader.
Winston can’t brand NZF as a hand break if he has no leverage over Labour.
Labour don’t have to worry about losing vote to the Left because National Moderates are replenishing any numbers lost to the Greens.
The Māori Party are activating Māori voters who previously hadn’t voted and to ensure they don’t get outplayed by NZF should be talking to the Greens now to present a united front to Labour because Labour can’t win with just them and NZF.
The framework for a Labour + Green + Māori Party Government could actually generate the most left wing policy platform since Savage.
Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice – please donate here.
Yeah so hope this will happen. Obviously the Greens and TPM will be talking and working together. The fact that Peters hates Chippy is the only thing going for Chippy.
So long as NZF gets over 5%, it is highly probable the Coalition will get re-elected.
The voter bloc that is actually persuadable by the totality of ACT and NZF is a maximum of 20%, but is more typically 15%. So if ACT gets into double figures, that imperils NZF.
This is the reason why Winston is going full out against Woke. He sees it as his best avenue to protect his vote share, especially as recent polls have NZF dangerously flirting with the 5% threshold.
You would think ACT and NZF would try and strategically work out what aspects of their overall approach should be the prime focus of each party, to avoid cannibalising each others vote and thus imperilling the prospects of being returned to government.
For the moment, and certainly for the 2026 election, the two competing sides of politics are clear. National, ACT and NZF on one side. Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Maori on the other. No-one else will get a look in. There won’t be any trading between the two blocs. Each side have their commitments to each other and have to live or die together. Winston made that pretty clear in his speech. He ain’t swapping sides in 2026.
Events Wayne, events and many cuts is what will see who wins, and going on current events Nat/Act/NZF are doomed.
The cultural tide is shifting in favour of the NZF and ACT worldviews.
Trump’s win and the trans rollback are signs that the populace is moving away from the more extreme progressive policies.
It means a really good thing going for Winston.
National are like Willis ferries sinking fast due to no leadership and constant Maori bashing .They have yet to realize there will be a wave of new voters at the next election that actually despise them .Young people are no longer interested in race baiting hate other than a few that are ACT and Junior Nats
The current crap govt will lose mainly from a death of a thousand cuts, Chippy and co have to keep up the systematic cutting on a daily if not weekly basis. If you don’t like that analogy then try a sound one, turn up the volume progressively louder louder louder.
Labour can easily solve the Chippy problem.
Winnie is too old and too damaged. Jones certainly cannot step into his shoes.
The Greens need to get serious and adapt a bit. They do not represent many. Get back to the social justice for ALL idea, not just the colourful people, and remembering their environmental roots, bring those people forward. Otherwise, 90% of us do not need the Greens. There must be some adults in the Greens who could be useful.
Failing that, te Pati Māori does social justice and can push that for all.
Luxon may have ruined the National Party with his weak and cowardly stint as PM although with the right leader, they may recover. Clear out all the dead wood and find someone with a fair bit of political experience but not tainted by the key years or this govt. too badly. Someone dignified would be a good idea.
Act isn’t a replacement. This present govt. is driving middle of the road people away, not attracting them.
They are all tarred with the same brush and Winnie’s and Seymour’s extremist idiocy isn’t appealing. It’s unhinged stuff and most normal people see that.
As we approach the start of Seymour’s time as deputy we’ll see more and more of his uncontrollable ego and worst tendencies. He’ll be like trump, wanting exciting headlines every single day. We already find his narcissism exhausting. His constant attention seeking behaviour will grow even more childish, cruel and embarrassing. It won’t take long for his supporters to realise he’s a liability.
Our esteemed Editor seems to have got it…Labour, Green, TPM with a co-ordinated policy and public unity are how to send this filthy vandal Govt. packing.
That, plus a few points from the usual list…free dental and public transport,
you know the rest…
I would love to see a Labour + Green + Māori Party Government.
What is needed is a Labour Party that puts aside all the ethnic and gender woke red herrings and embraces free healthcare for everyone, 100,000 new state houses for income-moderated lifetime rent by all who need them, free early-childhood care and education, a living wage.
We need a state that looks after everyone’s welfare. Where are you, Labour?
Cardboard cutouts replacing the anarchist Greens and Māori Party in Parliament would enable the grown-ups to engage with the serious business of running the country.
Greens want to do away with the police because they do not want to see them patrolling the streets.I hope voters remember this fact at next years election.
That’s not what she said, 1 MP not the party is your first lie, she thought that police would be better utilised by duties like controlling violence and theft instead so that’s another lie. While she was obviously silly to be making such comments with the hero police worship that is common in NZ that doesn’t excuse you for misrepresenting her although going on the end of your comment you are likely to be spreading the same lie come election time.
She was the second green to attack police .The other comment made some weeks ago was that many would feel safer with a gang member than a police person. Hardly a ringing endorsement. and both were endorsed by their leader as representing their constitute. So no lie just contempt.
Bro using pronouns even though we don’t have to. Just when radical liberals think they’ve dragged is left we find a way. We always find a way to be regular people.
Erm, based?
Trying listen to radio or watching the news .Even Hipkins is outraged at the comments made by their police spokesperson and backed up by the leader. She complained peo0le were intimidated by patrolling police .
I would take Winston Peter’s word at a pinch of salt I remember as a young person he said he would never go into government with Jim Bolger and hey did a 1996
As a cis white male I’m always pleased to see the cops …the shithesd quotient of our country appears severely out of whack ….
Tax work less, tax wealth more.
That needs to be the message the left takes to the electorate next year!
It’s going to be interesting to watch how the coalition reacts to another Winter of Discontent (and with Rimmer as DPM) due to rising power costs.