National – 36% (up 3.5)
Labour – 26.5% (up 2.5)
Greens – 13% (down 1)
ACT – 9.5% (down 1.5)
NZF – 7.5% (up 1)
MP – 3.5% (down 2.5)
Other – 4% (down 2)
Fascinating results, National is soaring, Labour is limping, ACT and NZF are fighting each other for reactionary voters, Darleen Tana is sinking the Greens and the Maori Party drop looks like a statistical anomaly.
What is interesting is how many are voting for the fringe sub 5% options.
What is really happening here?
Our beloved middle class woke activists have driven Men screaming from the Left.
Apparently, ALL MEN ARE RAPISTS and everyone with a penis is toxic is not the vote winner our trans, fourth wave feminist and non binary allies in Wellington thought it was.
Look at the gender split to appreciate why the Left are losing…
On an overall basis, men heavily favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 63.5% more than twice as popular as the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on only 31% – a gap of 32.5% points.
Support for the governing coalition is strongest for older men. For men aged 50+ there are a massive 66% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First, more than double the 32.5% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for the governing parties; National (44.5%) and NZ First (9.5%) is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
For younger men aged 18-49 there is a similar edge for the governing coalition with 61% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 30% that support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori – a gap of 31% points. Support for the governing coalition partner ACT (18%) is higher amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
…as I have been pointing out for some time, the problem with Identity Politics pure temple over Class based Broadchurch is that you can’t win elections with it and tell white men they are the problem long enough, and they will become the problem.
Can the Left wing back male voters to win the election?
I’m not sure, a lot of these middle woke Wellington activists have made hating men a necessary part of joining the left.
We have a wounded masculinity made septic by low education outcomes, high suicide, worse mental health and more violence – finding space to heal in a social media environment hell bent on painting all masculinity as toxic doesn’t help. The promise of democracy is you can look into the face of your child and know they will get a better deal than we got, but you have to be there to look into that face. Yes child support is crippling, yes the family court process is damaging – but your children and your relationship with them are worth it.
The Identity Politics woke have purged men from our movement, if we are not prepared to meet men where they are and win them over with a better vision for our society and their well being, we will lose the 2026 election.
Unfortunately the middle class woke refuse to see anything they have done is wrong and their purge of those with a penis (and when I see penis, I mean the old fashioned version, not the new fancy non-binary version of penis that is so popular in Wellington these days), the wokes desire to attack any expression of masculinity as a social negative means we will lose these male voters forever.
The woke left now is like a posh vegan dinner party in Ponsonby where you get stuck between Toby Manhire and Alison Mau arguing over who hates heteronormative white cis males most.
I have pointed out for some time Identity Politics is incredibly damaging as a political tool, turns out I was right.
That’ll be my heteronormative white cis male privilege playing up again, I promise to punish myself for using reason, logic and objectivity rather than my lived experience intersectionist feelings.
Meanwhile the planet burns, poverty builds and more young men keep committing suicide and hurting one another.
Yup, pretty well nailed it Martyn!
I’d suggest Labours fortunes will increase a tad with a new leader, Chippy is just a seat warmer till he gets (told to take) a nice job offer elsewhere.
Polls are fun, but 2+yrs out from election they don’t mean much, but ones like this are enjoyable to read.
Martyn – How the hell can the Greens be at 13%?!
Because supporting the Greens is driven by faith and beliefs that resist rational thought.
No – that’s the Brethren Party aka National
Fabulous Ada.
You should be seriously worried Ada.
Ada we have an evangelical PM and a transport minister in the same ball park, both of them ignoring actual facts to lead through ideology. Let’s not bring rational thought into the discussion.
Ada we have an evangelical PM and a transport minister in the same ball park, both of them ignoring actual facts to lead through ideology. Let’s not bring rational thought into the discussion.
Ada Some people still think that the Greens are an environmental party and some just don’t think at all. It’s also a place for weirdos to call home.
How can ACT be at 9? Lying bastards to a man/woman.
That’s the one positive. The parties that don’t support the race baiting treaty principles bill in the coalition went up. The one that does went down
The Greens at 13% is an indicator of just how bad Labour is perceived. It should wake them up, should, but won’t. I’m not sure what would shake them out of their slumber, but they are evidently happy with their performance and are content to keep snoozing with the covers pulled over their heads.
Rat in a cage – Good points
Everybody sing along now:
”Aaah well it’s going to plan.
The revenge of the Cis male man.
Are we not men?
We are Devo.
Are we not men
D e v o.”
Or maybe you have failed to note that part of the class war – which oppresses women, is to preach aspiration to middle class men and and resentment among working class men about feminism and Maori rights.
Women get that.
Most middle class men have no regard for the working class – could not care of they have Fair Pay Agreements or a rising MW or affordable rentals. They care about mortgages, their management/professional career or their business.
Randolph Churchill called this “Whig class of men” those who would abandon challenge to landed gentry privilege as soon as the working class was allowed to vote.
Thus now we witness the landlord class rising above them as the working class is laid low (and returns to lack of home ownership) – consequence of the 1984-1990 and 1990-1999 neo-liberalism.
The great society of the 20th C Cold War egalitarianism is being dismantled to restore the 19th C class order. Without fear of socialism, the “Atlas Network” restoration of capitalist supremacy is returning society to its “natural order” of rank and privilege. And middle class men want in.
Working class men are managed by their race and or gender to being part of the “patriarchy”.
Such is the way of supremacism.
The poll shows
1. that the right preaches ideology at the young man (ACT) and self-interest at the old (National and NZF).
2. the Green/NZF/ACT vote is stable.
3. the TPM and Labour vote is down and National is up. But all are at their 2023 election levels.
4. the fringe parties declined in support from 6 to 4%
The question is whether NZF can retain their level of support if/when Peters retires. And if not, whether NACT can govern.
NACT are at 45.5 to L/G/TPM 43. Similar to the polls of the 2008-2017 period. And 2023.
Thankyou for your brilliant breakdown SPC.
Am married to a white working middle class man watching as he ages (59) him becoming that resentful ‘man’ too.
Although know he did not vote meconium mix or b/w . I do wish TOP had not lost their way
Ps I voted against rather than for first time in an age.
When so many men get their values via the adult entertainment industry it is not really a surprise that they have relationship issues. Women can have their own issues also and as society has transitioned from permanent loving reliable relationships to a desire for selfish pleasure we are seeing the inevitable results. While I understand that people want chemical relief from what can be difficult situations for them the end result from that shortcut is usually negative as well. Since there’s profit to be made by catering to that need someone will supply it so I don’t expect things to improve with the current entitlement culture we have. Once we understand that rights and responsibilities are a package there might be hope?
Bonnie
Not sure how you connect Martyn’s article on a political trend, to males needing adult entertainment for relief.
In fact, I say to you that younger females get their values and income from Only Fans activities. How’s that for some stereotyping?
Women cant all be like nuns Bonnie.
“That’ll be my heteronormative white cis male privilege playing up again, I promise to punish myself for using reason, logic and objectivity rather than my lived experience intersectionist feelings”.
Yep lot of guys punishing themselves and voting NAct. Formerly labour voters from the masculine industries, freezing, forestry, factories, driving, civil. Plus all those young Jordan Peterson males who don’t want to be perceived gay. Good blokes betrayed.
Just another poll really. So many have bought into the instant online news model like wired up rats–zap–zap–zap…24/7. What we need is longer term thinking, reflection and community organisation.
The practical measures to defeat this vandalistic shit show of a Govt. are easy to identify but harder to achieve.
• a class left leadership of the NZCTU that daily takes on the employers
• a union membership drive, with a low fee transferable membership as part time workers move around
• reformation of a united NZ Communist Party to be the sharp end of the spear and work with all sector activists
• practical action in communities to support each other with transport, childcare, food etc.
• an occupy empty house and commercial property movement
National are doing well because they are doing things the people like. Tough on gangs and along with it tough on drug dealers. Tax rebate getting to grips with a blotted public service .Getting inflation under control interests rate dropping. Putting back speed limits to make motoring more enjoyable. Cutting through red tape.
This first few months has cleared the boards and now the rebuilding can start with a view of excellent results by the next election in 26 where National can win back more power
Thing is Trev, they have mainly got tough on the low end of town–the “bottom feeders”–as Baldrick Luxon kindly refers to several million citizens.
Natzos are waging a war on the poor MkII–a rerun of 1984–’91 almost, although in reality the original did extend further than Ruth Richardson through the ‘90s with Shipley and crew. The CoC are tough on disabled, mentally ill and challenged, carers, beneficiaries, school kids (dried up sandwiches not nutritious hot meals for you little swine), NGOs and volunteers.
Governments job is not to be tough, it is to help advance the material conditions of life for all citizens–this steaming pile how ever have decided NZ is a “Tale of Two Cities”–the deserving and the undeserving–and are putting the slipper in. It is up to the rest of us to take them on.
What have they done to gangs? Nothing but talk and virtue signal
What have they done on drugs? Nothing but talk and virtue signal
What have they done in the economy. Nothing but reward their donors.
What have they done on the roads. Nothing but talk and virtue signal.
Where is all the new legislation Trevor? Where?
They arrested the entire Chch Commacho gang 19 to date. Carried out some major drug busts.Issued countless infringement notices for bad behavior at funerals and car meets.
Inflation has been stopped and interest rates are on the way down which is a good start .
National have just past a huge multi billion on roads and public transport.
The poll shows people are noticing these moves and compares them with the previous 3 years of nothing happening .Labour had few achievements to shout about going into the election and taking GST of fruit and veg was their best offer.
Let’s not forget Trevor rewarding rich landlords with rebates that the low income earners subsidies through their tax. Ask most people and they will tell you Trevor, that’s wrong and not what people like at all.
Funnily I was going to write what you have.
I’ll tell you what I want what I really really want.
A list of the names of the Gangs?
Will it be the police who pepper sprayed John Minto and dropped the charge against him and now he is going for monetary compensation.
Will it be the IRD frauders who lost us $7 billion a year, yes they know who they are and what Gang they are in.
Will it be the landlords many of whom let mouldy houses out for exorbitant rates, Greed, Greed.
Will it be the protestors for the rights of Palestinians.
Will it be the protestors for Climate Change.
Will it be the protestors around the Fast Bill
Will it be Maori who will march on parliament later this year because the Luxon agreed to allow ACT with their bill to try and re-write the treaty.
Will it be Tuhoe who never ever signed te tiriti so make no mistake about it they did not cede sovereignty.
Will it be Samoan’s who had their right to citizenship cut off at the knees by David Lange
Absolutely fabulous Trevor.
Trevor you should be seriously concerned now.
Pretty much 100% Martyn
If a real old-style working-class party existed today, do you know what they’d call them?
‘Populist’
Think about it…
That’s certainly what they’ve called Sahra Wagenknecht in Germany, for refounding such a party herself due to their ‘Left Party’ she previously belonged to being completely subverted by ‘democratic socialist’/neoliberal scum.
Mohammed Khan: Sahra Wagenknecht copied the right’s policies word for word…then claimed she was left
You still here? Not on the frontline yet?
What else are we to expect? The ‘Gassed on Greed ‘ Natzo’s and ‘The weak and well fingered by Roger’ labour Party are the same thing remember.
Meanwhile we’re left to suck it up when the natzo’s spit it out.
Besides; what I read above and what I read elsewhere re the natzo’s is two entirely different things.
In reality, the natzo’s are fucked and getting more fuckder.
Is roy morgan being selective and preferential re their useless brain fartery? We should all know that roy and morgan are just another gas-bag media minion puffing out logical fallacies to appease the unimaginative’ masses as can be seen by the excitement oozing out of their own particular itteration of Idiocracy.
IMDb
” It turns out that Idiocracy was not actually a Sci-Fi, Adventure Comedy movie but rather a documentary about the year 2020 by a time traveler.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy
Im right, ADA and trevor etc are a compelling argument for the above observations.
One of the many. many things about AO/NZ’s people is to realise just how many are mono-thinkers. Like the mono-rail. One track in one direction.
Just shows the level of red necks in good old new zealand .Next the KKK will be made legal and cross burnings in the town square will be a regular saturday night thing .
I only come here to laugh at the idiots – but you are just hilarious today – so bitter and twisted.
Nah, it’s something else, exactly what, I’m unsure, but the ‘all men are rapists’ and ‘all fathers are sexual molesters of their own children’ hysteria was far worse back in the eighties and nineties without causing this style of anti left wing swing.
Men glorious men,nothing quite like them. What a sad little country we are that these cissy livered people think they have to be tough. Never mind the hardships for people along the way, give them guns , give them absolution from pay equity and women’s rights,give them more money in their taxes,let them burn their white y fronts in the street obviously scrubbed clean by the little woman ( real men wear y fronts not boxers ) . This lays bare the misogyny which is alive and well in Aotearoa. They quite happily go along with boot camps, poverty and homelessness bash all the brown people and while at it ban the language what treaty ? . It’s all the bottom feeder’s fault anyway. Go out and get a nonexistent job they say never mind if you are dying of cancer or got no arms or no legs you can always do something like aspiring to be a digger driver. This will always be a sad little country of rugby,racing and beer no walking or cycling give them billions of dollars worth of grey tarmac ,never mind the climate what’s climate change anyway. Yes we are a sad little selfish country who see no wrong with the c***s in all pervading power hell even the government women act like men. Let them eat cake not toast and god forbid they are allowed a cup of tea. Yes indeed what a brave honest kind bunch these real men are, where would we be with out them .??????
“pay equity” – dont understand this. There are women GG, women PM, women MPs, women Supreme Court Justices, women Green Party Leaders, women lawyers, women doctors, women software programmers, women film producers & directors, women rock stars, women djs, women cops, women CEOs, women landlords, women farmers, women stock brokers, women fund managers, women journalists and well over 50% of uni graduates are women. No one can argue there is not equal opportunity or that women are discriminated against in employment. The glass ceiling is shards on the office floor. The so called pay gap is surely caused by women choosing to do low paying jobs or not being good at negotiating their remuneration.
It’s a proven fact that women earn less than men and Willis has stopped pay equity for women caregivers in the aged care sector. Low paying jobs you mean no paying jobs. What a sad little man you are proved my point exactly.
Not your govt
Equity my arse??? Why do men have to play grand slam 4 hour five-setters to earn the same as women who play tennis finals that last 50 minutes? It’s a proven fact that women earn more relative to the physical efforts that have to be put in to earn that money ie. they have to sweat less for the money. Yes?
“pay equity” – dont understand this. There are women GG, women PM, women MPs, women Supreme Court Justices, women Green Party Leaders, women lawyers, women doctors, women software programmers, women film producers & directors, women rock stars, women djs, women cops, women CEOs, women landlords, women farmers, women stock brokers, women fund managers, women journalists and well over 50% of uni graduates are women. No one can argue there is not equal opportunity or that women are discriminated against in employment. The glass ceiling is shards on the office floor. The so called pay gap is surely caused by women choosing to do low paying jobs or not being good at negotiating their remuneration.
Joseph I hope you are a carpenter as you can sure use a buzzsaw to break up things,like a sound knowledge of differences in treatment of main groups in society. Humane psychology requires deeper thought than you seem to use.
The so called pay gap is surely caused by women choosing to do low paying jobs or not being good at negotiating their remuneration.
This if being applied to poverty groups doesn’t just apply to females. It is such a good, all-purpose feint from looking at reality, I would stick with it for another 40 years or when society totally disintegrates, whichever comes first. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it eh.
“This if being applied to poverty groups doesn’t just apply to females. ”
You get my point there isn’t a gender pay gap.
There are low wages for some jobs and as you noted both men and women choose to do those jobs or find themselves, due to iq circumstance, family circumstance, skill level, education opportunity/ acheivement or desire or location, doing those jobs. The jobs absolutely ought to be paid better but women have just as much opportunity to not do those jobs as men.
Yet you admit you don’t understand pay equity then go on to make assumptions.
I suggest you do some research.
I only come here to laugh at the idiots – but you are just hilarious today – so bitter and twisted.
As an after fart.
The management model that’s now our post neo-liberal politics is using humanity and its biology to control us, move us and manipulate us into following certain doctrines. The ‘greed is good now work harder because I am a greedy fucker’ doctrine being one of them. That’s all this is. It’s a manipulative, control mechanism to keep us enslaved effectively and that’s how 14 multi-billionaires, 3118 multi-millionaires each with a $50 million dollar minimum after tax and we have four *australian owned banks taking $180.00 a second 24/7/365 from us. Do you not realise that, that fact alone means that they own us? No wonder our farmers are struggling.
* We should be mindful of the fact that Australia is our primary industry competitor and the fact that they’re here, now, doing our banking is bizarre in the extreme if for no other reason than the fact that I seem to be the only one that understands the implications of that fact. There’s a saying within certain circles; If you think you’re the only sane person in the room then you’re probably the only mad person in the room.
Don’t borrow then.
Australia. 26million people standing around the edge of a hole in the ground having a BBQ.
Australia does mining. NZ is it’s banking mine. $10billion a year a year of money ore extracted.
However the four aus banks that that do the extracting from NZ are in turn owned by america(ns).
Of course 85% of the profits from the gold, iron, uranium, etc mining industry in Aus is also extracted internationally.
What would happen if the NZ government put a 50% royalty on bank profits being extracted from this country?
Look like a lot of people out there that resent higher wages, better workplace protections, and free healthcare.
EVERY WORKER DESERVES A PAYRISE EACH YEAR!
Wow, never owned a business I see Millsy.
What if the profits drop, business contracts dry up, do the workers give up some of the wage rise in order for the business to stay solvent?
Or as I suspect, you would expect another wage rise?!
Clearly you haven’t owned a business im wrong. If you have a poor business model you collapse. If you are resilient you grow as do you profits.
As I suspect you’re an idiot.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/food-drink/350403729/popular-wellington-eatery-announces-closure-after-nine-years
Nothing to do with wages idiot righty, all to do with the economy and it’s bloody terrible under your right wing coalition of chaos.
How many people do you employ millsy? From your comments I assume you run a business and know what your talking about.
Im guessing you do. Did you give your workers payrises in the last few years? No?
Millsy is just one of a few blogers on this site who have never employed anyone or been in a management role but consider themselves able to cast scorn on them.
Says someone who has always withheld payrises from workers and would slave drive them into the ground. I’m guessing you would intimidate them into doing overtime.
Do you live with Millsy Trevor? How do you know such a thing?
Your narcissistic streak is shining through.
Oh bless, Milly. You’re in the last century with the old fashioned unions. Employees nowadays are inspired, leave the employer and make money.
No they don’t DESERVE it if they’re not worth the money. They may well get an increase by decree, as in prescribed by law. That doesn’t mean they DESERVE it. Take your case, you’d get a decrease down to five bucks an hour if that was allowed, because that’s all you DESERVE! Others however, may even get more than they deserve, as in we want hold onto them because they are very very good.
So you think wages should be cut then? Typical National supporter. Always wanting to drive down wages. Mind you, you think its OK for rents to keep going up and up and up…
Any male who gets offended by minorities advocating for their IDENTITY, is not a man but a boy. There are plenty of Boomers who still think like children.
Except they don’t. What they get offended by is being excluded – the exact thought crime that the woke think they’re fighting against. The irony runs deep here. Eventually the left will wake up and realise that identity politics means nothing to the down trodden and dispossessed and then they might get back into the game and make themselves relevant. It’s going to be a while I fear!
Identity games are childish. Adults don’t need to play.
Well, for a start, stop using terms like ” heteronormative cis males” and call men what they are.. MEN. Use what ever term you want to describe the other circus freaks but men are fucking MEN.
Operation Cobalt Trevor was started by Labour
What is a woman, Women, girls, miss,mrs.miz,madam ,lady, Princess, queen ,tart, c**t, lesbian,lesbo. Mother,Mam,feminist,aunty,granny,she, pretty little communist, witch,cow,vixen, wait there’s more bitch, pretty,beautiful ,fat,thin, so what is a f***ing woman ?????
Workers shouldnt bear the brunt of bad economic times. Obviously you do, nothing but low wages, longer hours, and layoff while the owner gets to laugh all the way to the bank in their Ford Ranger.
But if this about Invercargill Mayor is the alternative I think we need a better type of politician. Not one just out of entitled kindergarten. Knowing how to talk to others one despises could be a useful skill for some charm school start-up catering to those in positions of power; less POP-UP pollies and more urbane, knowledgable and wise types with their head screwed-on far off the floor.
How is it a proven point that women earn less than men. Generally people doing the same job are paid pretty much the same money. Does a women cop earn less than a male cop? Does a women nurse earn less than a male nurse?
If more women became cops would that drive down the wages of cops? If more men became nurses would that drive up the wages of nurses?
I don’t know the details about pay equity in the care sector (do the male workers doing heavy lifting get paid more?) but would expect if care workers want better pay and conditions then lots and lots of strike action and an anti-immigration policy would be required from their union. No government is going to interfere with retirement industry profit unless forced to by worker action. (Just to be clear when I say anti-immigration I mean as it relates to numbers of immigrants)