Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update: Australia raises its terrorism threat level

Recently, Australia’s National Terrorism Threat Level was raised, from ‘Possible’ to ‘Probable,’ news that reflects several international trends.  Globally, there is increased political division as trust in state institutions decreases and social cohesion drops, resulting in pressure on democratic processes.  

Last week, the Director General of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), Mike Burgess commented on a range of issues including the impact of rising tensions in the Middle East, stating that this situation contributed to the new assessment. He also stated that Australia has recently seen an increase in extremist attacks.  ASIO’s website states that “ASIO is observing the emergence of domestic actors increasingly driven to action by socio-political issues, intersecting with personal grievances. There is an increase in extremism, fuelled by conspiracy theories and anti-authority ideologies. Some actors hold a blend of ideologies, including those that justify acts of violence to influence change.” The ASIO statement also includes a reminder that the Islamic State and affiliated terror groups are still active stating that “They are almost certainly building on recent successes to plan and conduct further attacks with an intent to target the West, and would consider Australia a legitimate target.” 

Essentially, like many nations Australia is experiencing a rise in divisive online rhetoric that is finding fertile ground during a period of economic downturn. A key element of which is persistent online disinformation that undermines the legitimacy of state institutions, resulting in a loss of community trust and confidence.  A noteworthy observation by ASIO is that “Attacks in Australia are likely to be low-cost, using readily available weapons, and simple tactics. Basic weapons, such as knives, vehicles, explosives, and firearms can maximise casualties when combined with simple tactics.” Partly, this indicates a change in tactics by organised terror groups that find it easier to organise ‘marauding attacks’ or attacks with improvised weapons, for instance driving a truck into a crowd of people rather than training and equipping armed groups. However, it also recognises the increased threat posed by ‘lone actor’ attacks by individuals radicalised online, carrying out improvised attacks.

The ASIO statement discussed how attacks of this nature are likely to target crowded places in major cities like shopping or transport centres. The most worrying feature of these types of attack is that they are difficult to prevent, and often happen without warning.  Australia’s decision is indicative of wider social and security trends that many other Pacific nations are facing. 

Chinese Foreign Minister visits war torn Myanmar

Myanmar is currently, fighting a bitter civil war as a range of armed factions unify against the ruling military junta. Myanmar shares a roughly 1,400 km long border with China, that extends through mountainous jungle. This year the junta has suffered several setbacks and the border is very insecure. Recently, insurgent forces captured the important northern town, Lashio.  Securing the border area is a very important objective for China, and it maintains relationships with both the ruling junta and several insurgent groups.

This year China has brokered two brief ceasefires, and maintains a close interest in the nation. This week, Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi visited Myanmar. Wang Yi met with Min Aung Hlaing, leader of the military junta and spoke about the need for a peaceful, political resolution to the conflict. Min Aung Hlaing seized power in 2021, over turning a democratically elected government, and China has consistently advised a return to elected government.  

Wang Yi also met with retired but very influential General Than Shwe.  The general praised China’s support for Myanmar and Wang Yi stated that ” We support Myanmar in safeguarding its independence, sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity, and support Myanmar in its efforts to achieve domestic political reconciliation within the constitutional framework, smoothly hold national elections, and restart the process of democratic transformation.”  A statement that captures China’s relationship with Myanmar, supporting a return to democracy but signalling to other nations that any intervention would be opposed by China. 

China is concerned about violence interfering with trade and security along the border. However, Myanmar is strategically important for China because it shares a border with its rival, India. Any Indian interest in the nation is a concern for China. Additionally, Myanmar also provides potential access to the Indian Ocean for Chinese trade.  Access that may help mitigate US attempts to blockade and isolate China in the Pacific. Therefore, China is likely to retain an interest in the nation as this visit demonstrates. A sudden political change or a Chinese intervention in Burma could have security impacts in the Pacific, so this is a conflict worth monitoring.

New Zealand signals interest in AUKUS 

On Thursday, speaking at the Lowry Institute, New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon spoke about the AUKUS partnership and signalled his government’s desire to participate, stating that ”… we welcome AUKUS as an initiative to enhance regional security and stability” and confirming that “New Zealand is exploring with the AUKUS partners how we could potentially participate in pillar two, including to understand what this means for our focus on ensuring interoperability.”

The next day Luxon met with his Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese. At the joint press conference following the meeting the Prime Ministers discussed greater military integration, joint responses to cyberattacks and a variety of other topics, Albanese discussing how Pillar 2 of AUKUS presents opportunities for New Zealand. 

Important foreign policy statements because New Zealand is currently debating its position on the AUKUS partnership, specifically whether it asks to join the technology sharing arrangements in ‘Pillar 2.’ This decision is important because of the role New Zealand plays in the South West Pacific. The nation’s history and leadership role mean that its choice is likely to influence other smaller nations.  In broad terms, New Zealand’s decision is important because its participation in AUKUS is likely to be interpreted by other smaller Pacific nations as agreeing with US and Australian concerns about China’s potential threat to regional security. An interpretation that may support US and Australian diplomacy that currently seeks to reduce China’s influence in the region. 

Recently, two former New Zealand Prime Ministers, Helen Clarke and Don Brash have both spoken out against involvement in AUKUS. Additionally, in early August, the current National party led government, released documents from 2023 detailing the previous Labour government’s discussions about AUKUS.  Then on 12 August, Andrew Little a former defence minister, in the previous Labour government, made a public statement countering criticism of New Zealand involvement in AUKUS. Stating that he strongly disagrees with opponents of participation. Little’s statement is interesting and could indicate bi-partisan support for participation. A recognition that New Zealand’s security environment in the Pacific is changing. This week’s events seem to indicate that New Zealand is moving closer to participation in AUKUS.  

Kiribati election report

Regular readers will remember that in February, this year, the small Pacific nation of Kiribati’s relationship with China was a cause for US concern. Kiribati sits on the equator approximately 2,000km due south of Hawaii, a strategic location.  A modern force based in Kiribati can conduct surveillance of Hawaii or perhaps attack the island with long-range drones, rockets or aircraft. Therefore, the US is highly interested in Kiribati and was concerned about the presence of Chinese police staff on the island.

This week, Kiribati is mid- election and its relationship with China and the US is a political issue. The current President, Taneti Maamau’s tenure has been tense with the nation moving closer to China diplomatically. Some key points of political tension were:

• The nation ceasing to recognise Taiwan in 2019. 
• The scrapping of the Phoenix Islands Protected Area in 2021. A UNESCO World Heritage Site planned to become a large marine reserve. Another action that was criticised by opposition politicians who claimed the decision was made to allow for Chinese fishing fleets to harvest the area. 
• Kiribati’s withdrawal in 2022 from the Pacific Island Forum for six months, an action that was criticised by opposition politicians who said they feared an isolated nation was more easily influenced by Chinese diplomacy. 

This week’s voting will be influenced by Sino-American competition, both nations keen to maintain and develop their relationship with Kiribati. And, the people of Kiribati facing a difficult choice about how they position their nation within that competition. 

Melanesian update 

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia. 

Fiji hosts Indo-Pacific Armies Management Seminar

The Indo-Pacific Armies Management Seminar hosted by Fiji, finished this week. The seminar finished with an address by the U.S. Army Pacific Commander, General Charles Flynn. General Flynn commands US Army Pacific.  A significant force, that includes troops in South Korea, Japan, Hawaii and the US.  His command includes four divisions of infantry, each with about 10-15,000 soldiers, and a range of logistics and support formations.  General Flynn is a ‘heavy hitter’ with a large command, so the fact that he is visiting Fiji and participating in this conference demonstrates US commitment to maintaining Pacific relationships.

General Flynn was clear to reinforce his nation’s key policy positions in the following statement “We can achieve the unity of action because, unlike our adversaries, we share a vision, a common vision, a vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific, a vision in which each country can defend its sovereignty, protect its people, and uphold its own rights under international law.” The conference included representatives from 21 Indo-Pacific nations, providing an opportunity to network and build relationships. 

India to build embassy in Timor Leste

Last week’s visit to Timor Leste by India’s president, Droupadi Murmu included an announcement that India intends to establish an embassy in the nation.  The visit by President Murmu was an indication of India’s interest, and the embassy announcement provides further evidence of the nation’s longer term diplomatic intent.   

Timor Leste is a small and very poor nation, but is strategically located close the mineral wealth of Melanesia and near rising powers Indonesia and Australia.  It will be interesting to see how the relationship between Dilli and Delhi develops. 

Papua New Guinea Prime Minister avoids ‘No Confidence’ vote

The recent attempt by opposition parties to remove Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister, James Marape was stopped after the nation’s courts ruled it illegal this week.  A narrow escape for the incumbent, and another example of how ‘No Confidence’ motions are used too often in some Pacific nations.  Unfortunately, this tactic has become common in the South West Pacific undermining parliamentary process.  

Recently, Papua New Guinea has faced natural disasters, tribal war and a massacre.  Meanwhile its parliament has spent its last two sessions focussed on debating ‘No Confidence’ motions.  Leader of the Opposition, Douglas Tomuriesa has already made clear his intention to propose another ‘No Confidence’ motion when parliament’s next session starts in September.  

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack