Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update: Joint Sino-Russian air patrol near Alaska

Last week, a small group of Chinese and Russian bombers flew close to US air space near Alaska. The US and Canada sent fighters to intercept the patrol. A relatively small incident, but one that has garnered a great deal of media coverage.

The joint patrol included two Russian Tupolev T-95MS Bear aircraft and two Chinese Xian H-6K, both types are nuclear capable strategic bombers but are far from modern or high tech. Although the aircraft did not enter Canadian or US air space, they did enter the Alaskan ‘Air Defence Identification Zone’ (ADIZ). A region of airspace established by the US and Canada in which both countries require aircraft to identify themselves and make their intentions known.

The patrol is clearly not a test of Alaska’s air defence. Instead, the intent of this patrol is probably to demonstrate that China and Russia are aligned. Both militaries working together and that the partnership is willing to test US and allied resolve. By flying close to their air space, the patrol forces the US and Canada to make decisions about how they respond. The response is noteworthy because both Canadian and US fighters were used to intercept the patrol.  It would have been easy for either the US or Canada to scramble fighters and intercept the patrol. However, the decision was made to demonstrate that both nations are ready and willing to work together to deter aggression.

This patrol is not the start of World War Three or even a new Cold War but is part of a developing trend towards more Sino-Russian joint operations. For instance, Russian aircraft testing the Alaskan ADIZ is not unusual. The Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS) reported in the article ‘Why did China and Russia Stage a Joint Bomber Exercise near Alaska?’ published on 30 July, that between 2017 and 2023, Russian aircraft were intercepted near Alaska approximately six times a year. What makes this patrol special is that it is the first time that Russian aircraft have tested the Alaskan ADIZ operating together with Chinese aircraft.

CISS reports that since 2019 there have been eight similar joint patrols, to-date focussed on the area around Japan and South Korea.  Further, that since 2022 “Chinese and Russian joint air and maritime patrols in the Indo-Pacific have also become more frequent.” Additionally, this year and last year Russian and Chinese naval task groups have exercised together in the Pacific, including a 2023 exercise near Alaska and the Aleutian Islands. Sino-Russian naval cooperation dates to 2012, the navies starting by exercising together in the Baltic, Sea of Japan and in the Arctic but recently extending to the Pacific.

The Arctic is a little reported but important area of competition, China and Russia are both keen to capitalise on new shipping routes and better access to the region that is a tangible impact of climate change.  The patrol’s route near Alaska and the amount of historic activity by both nations in the North Pacific, indicates that access to the Arctic is an area of interest for both Russia and China. This is another trend to watch, the sparsely populated Arctic regions are an important new area if security competition.

Exercise Austral Shield 2024

The Australian Defence Force has just finished another large exercise, Austral Sheild 2024.  An exercise focussed on domestic security in within Australia.  The nation practiced its ability to deploy military force to northern Australia to support local police and emergency management services.  The exercise ran from 12-26 July and was conducted across the north of Australia, from Derby in Western Australia to Darwin in the Northern Territory to Cairns and Christmas Island in Queensland.

The activity involved Reserve Force soldiers from 13^th Brigade based in Western Australia, 11^th Brigade from Queensland and local soldiers from the Regional Surveillance Group.  It also involved naval and air assets, and focussed on domestic security. This term refers to a defence force’s ability to support civilian government in the event of threats like terrorism, insurrection, natural disaster or in Australia’s case the unexpected arrival of large numbers of illegal immigrants on its northern coast.  In the words of Exercise Director Brigadier Damian Hill Austral Sheild 2024 practiced “The ability for the ADF to rapidly deploy and employ forces is critical to our role supporting civil authorities in domestic security activities and maintaining an agile and ready force.”

Australia has a large, sparsely populated northern coastline and the ability to rapidly deploy military units to assist with security is a vital capability. Another more military focussed use of exercises like Austral Sheild 2024 is practicing the inter-agency inter-operability required for ‘Rear Area Security Operations’ (RASO) during conflict.  The north of Australia contains are important military infra-structure including ports, air bases and logistics facilities. If there is a conflict in Melanesia, the wider South West Pacific or even in Taiwan or South Korea, US and allied forces will deploy to the area and probably be using bases in Cairns, Darwin and Townsville. This makes these areas vulnerable to attack so being able to deploy military forces to the area for their protection needs to be planned and practiced. A RASO force is going to work closely with local police and communities and exercises like Austral Sheild 2024 test and develop civil-military relationships.

US establishes new command in Japan

Last week, the Pentagon announced that the US military headquarters in Japan will be upgraded and expanded so that it can work more closely with the Japanese military.  This is an important change; US Forces Japan will become more focussed on planning, exercising and joint capability development rather than being a solely administrative organisation.

The aim of the change is to streamline command functions and to make it easier for Japanese and American commanders to work together when they are planning and exercising. It is designed to improve inter-operability by allowing local American forces to work directly with Japanese forces. Building relationships and developing the operating processes and procedures that are the basis of inter-operability.  The process of developing inter-operability will take time, but this decision could be a step towards a fully integrated US-Japan joint command like exists in South Korea.

US ships, submarines, aircraft and soldiers are based in or could be expected to operate near Japan in a potential conflict with China.   While the next steps are unknown this change indicates that the US is concerned about making sure that its forces in Japan can fight effectively alongside their hosts.  This type of preparation is an indication of US security concerns in the region.

Australian navy tests new missile system

During the recent RIMPAC exercise, HMAS Sydney test fired the new Naval Strike Missile (NSM). HMAS Sydney is a Hobart Class air defence destroyer and has recently been fitted with the NSM. This weapon is a sea-skimming missile with a range of 2-250km but its most important feature is that it is designed to be stealthy and hard to detect using radar.

The procurement of the NSM missile is part of the Australian Defence Force’s recent commitment to expand and become more capable. A programme that sees the navy acquiring missiles like NMS and Harpoon, providing greater anti-ship strike capability. Further, the NMS is fast becoming a ‘standard’ missile serving with many allied nations.

The US Marine Corps is now deploying a light-vehicle mounted version called the   Navy Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS).  The use of similar missile systems allows for better inter-operability between nations. For instance, it may be the case that in a future conflict HMAS Sydney provides firing data to US Marine Corps land-based launchers, or vice versa. The use of a standard missile system allowing US and Australian forces to operate in an integrated manner.  Sharing digital data and command information easily and quickly between different nation’s assets, a skill tested during RIMPAC.

Melanesian update

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia.

India’s President visits Timor Leste and Fiji

India’s President Droupadi Murmu will visit Melanesia this month, stopping in Timor Leste and Fiji.   The visit will be from 5-10 August and includes a visit to New Zealand. It is the first time an Indian president has visited Fiji or Timor Leste.

The visit reinforces the assessment that this column made in February 2024 that we will see more Indian military and diplomatic activity in the Pacific.  (See Pacific Brief 10 January 2024 ‘The Pacific region in 2024 – An overview’) India’s ‘Look East’ and ‘Act East’ foreign policy statements indicate the nation’s interest in the Pacific, especially South East Asia and its important maritime trade routes. We should expect to see more Indian diplomatic activity in the Pacific.  India is a large power, seeking influence in the region and because it is not strongly allied to either China or the US demonstrates the complexity of the emerging multi-polar political environment.

Arrests made after recent violence in Papua New Guinea

This week, Papua New Guinean police arrested five people in connection with an outbreak of violence in East Sepik Province’s Angoram District. On 17 and18 July, a gang of approximately 30 young men conducted a series of violent attacks on villages in the area killing 26 people, mostly women and children. The attacks included sexual assaults. The motive for these attacks is not known, yet.

Reports indicate the ringleaders of the attacks are armed and on the run. The situation has led to hundreds of local people retreating into the jungle to hide from the attackers or moving out of the area for safety The area is remote about 70 km south-east of the provincial capital, Wewak. The remoteness and rough terrain make tracking down the criminals difficult and contributing the difficulty that Papua New Guinea’s government has maintaining the rule of law.

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack