Even Taxpayers’ Union Poll shows National slumping

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National – 35.4

Labour – 29.4

ACT – 9.7

NZF – 5.6

Greens – 12.7

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Te Pāti Māori – 4

Opposition makes gains in new political poll

A new political poll shows the opposition making gains on the government, but not enough to take power if there was an election tomorrow.

The latest Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll put National down 1.9 points on last month to 35.4 percent, while its coalition parties ACT and New Zealand First remained mostly steady on 9.7 percent and 5.6 percent respectively.

Labour slipped 0.6 points to land at 29.4 percent, but the Greens bounced up 2.5 points to 12.7 percent. Te Pāti Māori was up 0.9 points to 4.0 percent.

On those numbers, the three coalition parties would have a majority with 63 seats between them, down three from last month, while the opposition would have 58, up two.

I don’t think David Farrar is good at polling women, or he’s being very selective about where he’s polling because all the internals are showing Labour in the low 30s and I think TUs Poll is a slow follower rather than providing foresight or capturing the moment.

It does however speak to the trends we are seeing in other polling now.

The danger for National is that the extremism of ACT and NZF will scare the bejesus out of middle voters.

While the hate algorithms on Social Media are polarising the fringes, the middle are recoiling at the level of abuse and openly toxic social policy.

Most voted National in the hope their house price would go up 10%, they sure as Christ weren’t buying into culture war grievances implemented as actual policy!

The naked reality of the budget was that despite bitterly criticising Labour for borrowing, this Government have borrowed MORE!

The difference is that when Labour borrowed it, it was to protect us from a once in a century pandemic, when National borrowed it, it was for tax cuts to their rich mates!

Once the electorate saw that, they couldn’t un-see it!

What was outrageous for most Kiwis was National promising cancer patients life saving drugs and then not doing it.

Wow.

Just.

Wow.

They had the $2.9billion for landlords, but they didn’t have $280million for cancer patients they had promised to save.

That. Is. So. Fucking. Ugly.

And it really burned Luxon…

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon took a knock to his personal rating with his net favourability score dropping 13 points to -5 percent.

That was below Labour leader Chris Hipkins whose net favourability jumped 4 points to hit 3 percent.

The scientific poll surveyed 1000 people over three days last week and has a maximum margin-of-error of +/- 3.1 percent.

It captures the response to the coalition’s first Budget where National delivered its promised tax cuts but broke its commitment to fund 13 cancer treatments from this year.

…we forget that in our post Covid bitterness against Jacinda for having the temerity to save 20 000 lives, we elected a 3 headed beast without actually understanding what that would amount to.

People are watching this cavalcade of spite and malice passing as social policy in shock and horror at what we’ve elected.

For the right wing fanatics at the fringes, the extremism is exciting and righteous.

To everyone else it’s demented and cruel.

We haven’t had a seriously ideological Government since Ruth Richardson!

John Key wasn’t ideological, he was an uber pragmatist and ended up being more Socialist than Helen Clarke and despite Jacinda’s promise of transformation, the truth was she was a cautious centrist!

We often mocked Jacinda’s kindness mantra, but nothing scared the Christ out of a Government Agency more than their policy or service being branded as ‘unkind’.

An entire Generation of Kiwis have lived under a State they believed was there to help them.

That is no longer the case.

We have a hard right racist climate denying beneficiary bashing Government that pretends to be moderate when it’s far fucking from it!

We grew accustomed to a State that used carrots, we now have a Government of sticks which will be used to beat the snot out of you.

The extremism of this Government is driven by unique forces that are uncontrollable.

Luxon was a CEO, NONE of his skill set works in the current position he is in.

NOTHING in his CEO experience would give him the skills to work Winston and Seymour.

Say what you want about Seymour and Winston, but they are masters of the game at the heights of their power and they are chewing up and spitting out Luxon every single month.

This narrative of weakness keeps pushing Luxon to out butch Winston and Seymour which only makes him look weaker.

The electorate are regretting the last election and are looking for alternatives.

Labour, the Greens and the Māori Party have to be that alternative.

 

 

45 COMMENTS

  1. Sadly, the governing parties being useless does nothing to enhance the opposition’s abilities and capabilities.

    • “The Greens at 12.7%? How?”
      Chloe Swarbrick is certainly how.
      AO/NZ’s a solely agrarian economy comprising 50 thousand farmers. AO/NZ’s also got 14 multi-billionaires, 3118 multi-millionaires with a base-line of $50 million net EACH and has four now foreign owned banks stealing $180.00 a second after tax 24/7/365. How? Got any ideas nathan? Anything at all that’s interesting? Informed? Intelligent? Original? Anything challenging that might upset the natzo’s who’s balls you cup?
      No one ever went broke in Nu Zillind over estimating the stupidity of the average Kiwi farmer.
      The very best and most efficient way for the air to be cleared in Nu Zillind would be if those 50 thousand farmers went on strike.
      “When the belly’s full all else is art” remember.

    • I think the question is Act- 9.7…how?
      That is just bullshit figure…. at best they would be polling at 7… but propaganda is the right’s weapon of choice….however…it’ll only work for a while and get you so far.

      The proof of the pudding is in the eating …Scrapping everything and
      everyone is just scapping everything and everyone..

      Worse…a lot worse is to come for Act…

  2. The last election was a complete mess in terms of which bunch of incompetents to give your vote to.

    If you are a non-tribal voter it was the most depressing line-up in as long as I’ve been voting. Uninspiring, divisive and just depressing especially when it became obvious that Winston was going to play a major part, and the leaders of the two major parties were as talented as navel lint.

    I expect these polls are going to be all over the place for the foreseeable future until the inevitable implosion happens on the left or the right.

  3. I think Winston and David are very happy with Luxon as leader.

    Imagine how much better Labour could do if they didn’t have Chris H as Leader.

    • Why Luxon didn’t rule Winston out is beyond me, and Hipkins clutching onto the reins of power just shows that he’s just another career politician. At least Andrew Little seemed to want to do the right thing and not just look at his self interest.

        • buhahaha do you have an answer or just a pointless comment?

          He stepped down so that Jacinda Ardern could take over the party. You may remember her. She made the news a couple of times.

        • OK Stephen…
          Chris Luxon
          David Seymour
          Nicola Willis
          Winston Peters
          Shane Jones
          Gerry Brownlee
          Actually and one if the government ministers.

          • Shane Jones wasn’t so bad when he was just stealing taxpower money to have a toss rather than accepting huge bribes from foreign multinationals.

      • I agree Winston and Jones are a millstone around his neck .Their racism and backward environmental message is against the lead set in Key’s era

  4. Jacinda kindness. culture had the police soft on gangs and young offenders and KO soft on bad tenants (thousands of complaints only 13 evictions)
    Another turn off was the underhanded way their government attempted to bring in cogovernment through 3 Waters . And other moves.This move backfired and alienated both phakha and Maori.
    When this was exposed and rejected by the people Jacinda jumped ship before she was pushed

    • Key created all our problems by way of his economic vandalism by way of rampant immigration.
      Ardern exposed this and knew there was no miracle cure as much as she tried.

    • “Alienated Maori ”

      What a joke Trevor have a look at the carnage this right wing racist government is doing. You never saw Maori protesting in the streets over 3 waters but you did see the red neck farmers supported by National and ACTs rhetoric drive.

  5. As this government becomes increasingly unpopular Winston will have to walk well before the next election to distance himself from weak Luxon. Or would the right to keep the show going make him PM?

    • The Greens and the Maori party might be an alternative but Labour’s election strategy under Hipkins is to wait for the right to make mistakes and hope we all forget how astonishingly in effective he was as a Prime Minister.

      If Hipkins does get back we’ll have 3 more years of doing nothing, and then what?.

      Maybe people start listening to Chloe? I really don’t know

  6. Despite this if the taxpayers union were neutral they’d hold the government to account, they’re not, they are an offshoot of right wing politics. The fact they are showing a slump for National that things are much much worse than they look. The government is a separatist government which is why the country is fighting back. We will see a change of government next election such is the extent of their corruption.

    • This government and it’s extremist friends inside Parilament (and astroturfing nutbar mates outside of it), exhibit classic sociopathic ideas and behaviour. This is an anathema to normal fairminded Kiwis. Current polling trends are the response to that.

      But worse for these deranged encumbents, the legislative carnage enacted by National & its nutty friends are pushing the country into a deep recession.
      As this bites further and deeper into the middle classes, the Polls will reflect this ie. the only way is down.

      Hopefully the new government in 2026 will reverse all the extremist far right policy and repair/rebuild NZ.

      Although who’ll still be here by then will be interesting – the Nats appear content to swap our talented youth for 501’s.

    • Indeed. The Taxpayer’s Union and ACT Party are more interested in abolishing age of consent laws than increasing the efficiency of government spending.

  7. The problem, as i see it, is that the Maori party has seen how National bowed down to Act and NZ first and will demand the same level of extremism for their support. Where before we use to have quite centrist governments, we are now being pulled too far away from that center. I can see it ending in country wide tears eventually.

    • Absolute nonsense. Labour and the Greens are neoliberal rats. They need to be made to deliver on some pro-human policies. The Maori party is the best option for any real New Zealander, Maori or not, at this point.

      • No argument on your point on being made to deliver on some pro-human policies but if you think that TMP are not going to use their position to extract some of their more radical policies, (go read their website) you’re either not paying attention or you are deluded.

  8. Not a bad analysis Martyn except for one piece of fiction ..’The scientific poll surveyed 1000 people over three days last week and has a maximum margin-of-error of +/- 3.1 percent.’ Statistical bullshit from TPU’s Curia nonsense poll.

    • It’s all just bribes to try and get Pacific Islanders to refuse legitimate business investments from China. Doubly disgusting

  9. ” They had the $2.9billion for landlords, but they didn’t have $280million for cancer patients they had promised to save.

    That. Is. So. Fucking. Ugly.

    And it really burned Luxon…

    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon took a knock to his personal rating with his net favourability score dropping 13 points to -5 percent.

    They have caused themselves huge damage with the promise of funding cancer drugs and then reneging on that promise. Even Nastie voters I work with are disgusted with Luxon and Willis.

    I think Luxon will be removed before the next election and the general consensus is Willis and her RWNJ’s will move against him.

    Seymour will back her to move further right but Winston will hedge his bets. Jones is now where he wants to be in his own little tax payer funded trough backed by his big money donors.

    Will Winston do a 1998 and withdraw from the governing coalition when the leader gets rolled ? My bet is he will do what’s expedient for him and to hell with the country just like last time. Shane ? he does love his taxpayer funded and donors perks.

    If only we had a credible opposition !

    We are fucked.

  10. Mass exodus of kiwis moving to Australia because of the National governments policies creating recession. The last time it was this high, 2012 another National government. The evidence doesn’t lie unlike this government. People have lost all hope under this government.

      • Pull ya head out of ya blue arse. In 6 months National has taken us back 40 years.
        Even the most ardent of right wing supporters agree. That just makes you hard right and pathetic.

      • Every time National get a turn at govt they start a recession…..useless the fucking lot of them
        There FIFY

  11. ” Every time Labour are kicked out of govt they have left a recession…..useless the fucking lot of them ”

    Michael Cullen left the shyster and the dipper excellent government accounts and a surplus to steal in 2008 and then bullshit about the GFC being all Clark/ Cullen’s fault.

    That’s the problem with the self entitled I’m Right they vote basing their support on all the crap your mates feed them as fact without actually doing some research. The last LINO government were feckin useless and did not get re elected because THEY WERNT A REAL LABOUR GOVERNMENT.

    The Nasties have done all this austerity before masked as an agenda to drive many into poverty and cut social services including no realistic rises in the minimum slave wage rate so your mates can get rich and maintain it while screwing over your fellow Kiwis and their kids who every right to a home , decent paid job and access to fully funded public services that the wealthy use when they want to save money but want to deny their countrymen and women those services with their cruelty and support for the Nasties.

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