How a minority Labour led Government with a supply and confidence arrangement with the Maori Party would actually work

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National are selling a Labour minority led Government with a supply and confidence arrangement with the Maori Party as the ‘coalition of chaos’ which exposes a grotesque level of ignorance on Chris Luxon’s behalf.

So how would a Labour led Government with a supply and confidence arrangement with the Maori Party would actually work?

If Labour + Green are reliant on the Māori Party for votes to get the 51% necessary to pass the budget, there would be a price extracted from Labour for that supply and confidence. vote

There will be bottom-lines that the Māori Party will require in return for that supply and confidence vote.

If those bottom-lines are universal policies like GST off food and taxing the Rich, the Maori Party say themselves up as true disruptors and build legacy towards 2026.

The Māori Party would then go onto the cross benches and if their list of demands on policy is too great, it allows Labour to turn to the National Party for votes instead.

The cross bench giveth and it can taketh away, if the Maori Party demands are too great it allows National to offer up votes for legislative changes.

This isn’t ‘chaos’, this is how MMP is supposed to work.

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The issue for the Left are what the bottom-lines the Maori Party will demand.

They could be very selfish demands that will permanently damage the Māori Party or they could be wide ranging policy like GST off food that would make an enormous difference to poor people.

That is the true question of the 2023 election, what can the Maori Party gain for their supply and confidence vote.

 

 

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43 COMMENTS

      • Well take your pick. A main party with a slightly unhinged lesser partner are the nightmare options available. I am certainly not anti the idea of a tax cut but it’s farcical to think NAT Act are going to solve our main problems. Let polluting dairy farmers off the leash, reignite the property market obsession, behave like complete cocks over the meaningless distraction of a gun register. That will solve all our problems. Either way you look at it the Sandman is decidedly absent.

        • If you fear the effects of a growing economy then you back one team.
          If you think growth will create more benefits for the average NZer then you back the other team.

  1. I’ve planned to visit my brother in oz in September, I will also be looking for options as I’m not sure NZ can take another 3 years of”kindness”

    No oz is not perfect, but at least they’re aspirational, and I don’t mean they aspire to have the entire country dependant on welfare, like we do here.

    • Aspirations are easier to achieve with a more balanced tax system. They also have states that say if your kids are not vaccinated they can’t go to that school. No one seems to call that fascist like they do here.

      • Aspirations are easier to achieve with a massive resource sector contributing billions in tax revenue.

  2. We’re all swing voter’s I think ACT has adjusted to this new normal better than the rest by giving themselves over to the gun lobby. And the moari party giving themselves over to the dreams of the underclass is supposed to be chaotic? You two are crazy.

  3. “They could be very selfish demands that will permanently damage the Māori Party or they could be wide ranging policy like GST off food that would make an enormous difference to poor people.”

    Given the antics of Waititi and Ngarewa-Packer to date, which do you think is more likely, Martyn?

    • It’s our trade policies that harm the NZ consumer the way it works is ultra high net worth individuals get to make risky investments in a move towards monopolies and when it all fails hard working tax payers are supposed to bail out those risky investments. But antics is one way of looking at it.

      • But MB says that this is what was missing for the last six years.
        Surely we want to give the labour government a chance to prove that the can work. Or do you think it was the fear of working that got us to where we are?

        • It’s more complected than that half of all Kiwi households are single mothers. We can’t give woman full working rights then take it away because they get pregnant there has to be a continuation payment during pregnancy and upto 2 years old before childcare subsidies kick in. And the guys will have to be given back to full time work welfare payments upto 3 years with a provision that says you can work up to 32 hours a week before your welfare payments are sanctioned and in return men are going to have to do more of the household duties.

          This is where I would prefere a financial transaction tax go into instead of reorganising GST it out to be deployed on repairing the family unit but we will have to wait and see what tax changes come down from above.

    • What bottom-lines will Te Pati Maori demand?

      Not necessarily selfish. But to the letter, self-serving and reflective of their own particular ideological concerns. But hey, this is politics.

  4. The other outcome is a hung parliament and another election. Italy/Israel style politics where absolutely nothing gets done.

    TPM have to be aware that they cannot be in parliament just for Maori. They need to consider the implications of ALL their policies on the total population.

    For if not careful, the peoples parliament will not function and voters may well take a dim view of their stance. TPM need to be political savvy enough to maintain their voter base and if that voter base sees nothing but connived nothingness they may well give up on TPM.

    Same applies to Labour, voters will take a dim view of a not able to do anything parliament.

    Very little has been said of the $800M in the budget for Maori only spending.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/budget-2023/490185/budget-2023-what-s-in-it-for-maori

    You can see how the cost of maintaining supply and confidence for a minority government comes with fish hooks. More money for us or no supply and confidence. Bullying or stand over or blackmail tactics to the fore?

    “While Te Pati Māori welcomed parts of the Budget – particularly the boost for Te Matatini, which co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer said was “the exact amount” they wanted – she and her colleague Rawiri Waititi were left disappointed.”

    Howe long before the main parties splinter and we have the New Zealand Indian part (or Chinese or Asian) parties sitting on the cross benches demanding more money for Divali or Dragon Boat festivals? Seeing Kapa Haka is now supported by tax payers largess.

  5. Both the left and the right need brand new parties that actually represent public opinion. Not begging the same crooks for more crumbs.

  6. Yeah, a minority Labour government will work better then a majority one. I get that TPM is basically just the retiring party for ex Labour Maori MP’s / Candidates and the Greens well, never mind the Greens, and thus a coalition should be at least on paper a ‘success’ but i find this pairing dangerous to the health of anyone who is not in a LTPMG approved protected category.

    The issue that labour has to address and fight against is “Labour Fatigue”, ‘ramraid fatigue’ ‘random stabbing fatigue’ ‘random theft fatigue” ‘children not learning fatigue’ ’emergency department overflowing fatigue’ ‘no doctor available fatigue’ ‘food to expensive fatigue’ ‘gasoline to expensive fatigue’ ‘public transport sporadic and almost never on time fatigue’ +++ and it actually can’t address any of that without addressing that all these ‘fatigues’ are the direct results of their governance over the last 5.75 years, and that TPM and G are well signatories to pretty much any policy that let to where we are today. Fatigued.

  7. Martyn – Nice idea…but, the Maori Party are too hard core anti – Maori (check their website for proof) – they need to promote policies for all NZers…

    • They have JT.
      No need to worry, he will make sure they play nice……
      It will be an open and honest government…..

  8. Why exactly are Labour MPs never expected to be responsible? Why do they have to be pushed onto their own track by the minor parties?

    This is like the idea of hopeless drunks who can’t be trusted. They will just keep drinking and avoiding their adult responsibilities.

    What is the mental sleight of hand in the *expectation* that the children (in this analogy) assume responsibility, even where doing so, goes against their own particular interests.

    What is obscured in this picture is that Labour is not their freaking family. Unlike the children in a disintegrating family, these parties will survive if Labour crashes.

    • It’s simple, Labour isn’t Labour, but sometimes they have play along a little to keep the proles happy & fooled.

  9. Another one bites the dust. Auckland-based construction firm Construct Civil has been put into liquidation.

  10. If you want even more of what we currently have (i.e. high inflation/cost of living – ALL of which Labour/Greens caused under their watch) then have it. I can’t for the life of me see how voting for more of this is going to solve it. Rocks in your head maybe?

  11. “What can the Maori Party gain for their supply and confidence vote”?

    Watch this space. If you thought the Labour Maori caucus alone had some leverage we ain’t seen nothing yet. Some self-serving their own interests but one would hope a lot also relevant to the wider electorate.

  12. The election doesn’t matter anymore whichever way it goes cause … With the budget out and Auckland Council getting set up for a Fire Sale. This will be as bad, a recession/depression possibly as severe as the GFC NZ styles!
    So buckle up Dorothy! It’s gunna be a doozySee you all in 2026 and beyond. We’re definitely fucked.

  13. Folks it’s already unravelling!
    Robertson is already crapping himself as he loses control of the OrrGrrr. Robbo tells us “Modest budget means there shouldn’t be a need to raise the ocr or interest rates.” Shouldn’t? Really? Robertson clearly has no idea or is a cynical bastard with a heart of ice. Orr will kill the dreams of thousands of kiwis in a few weeks. The toaster is on on and the slices in there are Robertson and Chippie. They are burnt toast.

  14. The scenario you are describing is more like something we regularly see in Canada than an MMP arrangement.

    Canada has had minority govts for 12 of the passed 20 years and the incumbent liberals are able to seek support from the left NDP, french Nationalists or the right conservatives.

    These arrangements are by nature unstable and usually last a maximum of 18 months.

    We have never had a situation where the balance of power sat in the cross bench, our confidence agreements are far more akin to coalition agreements than traditional confidence agreements.

    We’ve never had the balance of power on the outside pissing in we’ve always had them on the inside pissing out.

    MMP unlike everywhere else it’s been implemented, has actually made our parliament MORE partisan and I doubt National will give supply to a labour/green minority govt, especially if National is larger than Labour.

    The scenario you describe with the Maori party in the cross bench will result in this :

    Come next budget labour will implement some of the Maori party’s economic policies but refuse to implement it’s Nationalist/Separatist policies,because it would be political suicide.

    Maori party, storms off , condemns Labour, calls Hipkins a colonialist white supremacists like they did with Jacinda)

    Greens follow the Maori party, a resurgent national party refuses to support labours budget, the budget fails in the house, which is a confidence vote, and the country has a snap election with a huge swing to the right. Maori voters turn on the Maori party for not cooperating with Labour.

    The true MMP solution to a situation where a radical nationalist/separatist party holds the balance of power is found in Germany, where Labour and National would form a grand coalition or Lab/Act/green (Germanys incumbent govt) or Nat/green/act form an MMP govt.

    Unfortunately New Zealanders don’t use MMP like any other country and the scenario where the Maori party holds the balance will result in a budget failing to ascend and a snap election.

    • Well, Corey, in the context of broader history, stranger things have happened. And it would be just another strangeness in a growing list of late. So, may well come to fruition. Why is it that NZer’s dont use MMP as any others? Strength or flaw?

  15. kIWI, whiy, yer vot always, farm fence, house mortgaged, tha!ts why. if i vote different, i will get the sack.

  16. “Orr will kill the dreams of thousands of kiwis in a few weeks. The toaster is on on and the slices in there are Robertson and Chippie. They are burnt toast.”
    “See you all in 2026 and beyond. We’re definitely fucked.”

    Quotes of the Budget week for me, pretty much sum things up>
    Labour are goneburger!

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