Will we really risk nuclear war for Ukraine or Taiwan? How Iran becomes the next friction point.

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West prepares for panic at home if Putin goes nuclear

Western countries are making contingency plans to deal with the chaos of a nuclear war in Ukraine, officials say, as the threat grows of a battlefield strike by Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The measures could include issuing leaflets on how to survive an attack or ways to ease panic buying amid fears that the fallout could reach Europe and beyond.

Putin’s recent threats to use nuclear weapons have set off alarm bells across Nato, with the alliance holding talks behind closed doors on how it will respond to such an attack.

Some observers believe there is a realistic prospect of the Russian leader using a tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine, either firing it on land or into the Black Sea.

The West is in no way shape or form blameless in the war that is raging in the Ukraine and the ratcheting up of tensions with China over Taiwan.

That is not to say for one second that I support Putin or Xi, or that I’m an apologist for either regime. I believe deeply that Putin has committed war crimes and has no justification for this violence.

I’ve never understood people who make apologies for Putin and I have no time for the authoritarian nightmare China has become, but the West has to acknowledge its own role in creating the environment that we see now.

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It is the West that has surrounded China with military bases and it is the West that has pushed into the Ukraine. China and Russia see these incursions and encircling as existential threats to their existence.

I was one of the few commentators in NZ who predicted Putin would invade and argued the attempted coup in Kazakhstan in January was the trigger and that much of this is about how Putin views his own legacy amongst the Russian hard men of history.

Putin sees himself as part of a 1000 year Christian tradition and that this war is for the soul of Russia.

We don’t appreciate the power and importance and motivator Russian Orthodox Christianity plays out in all of this.

In 988AD, Vladimir the Great, whom Putin takes his name from, mass baptised 1000 Russians at the River Nee-Proh in what has become the founding spiritual moment in Orthodox Russian Christianity as the moment Russia became Christian and led to a cultural narrative structure that Moscow is the third Rome and was a homeland for Christianity.

What isn’t widely known is that Putin himself is a very staunch Russian Orthodox Christianand that he has used the Russian Orthodox Church as an enormous control mechanism over the Russian people.

Putin has spent billions rebuilding the Churches smashed down by Communism and uses his relationship with the Church for political advantage. It was the Orthodox Church who first praised Putin for annexing Crimea, a region with much religious importance for the Church.

Recently the Ukrainian branch of the Orthodox Church severed ties with the Russian branch because they felt Putin was having too much influence over it.

If Moscow is the third Rome, Kyiv is the second Jerusalem.

Putin sees himself as part of a long line of Christian Defenders of the true faith.

Putin’s mentor Alexander Dugin has argued for the invasion of Ukraine…

Russian intellectual Alexander Dugin is the main architect of the neo-Russian imperialism called Eurasianism. In a series of lectures, articles, and books, Dugin has sought to “rehabilitate fascism in Russia.” He has borrowed from obscure 19th and 20th century political theories, adopted a sympathetic interpretation of Nazism that attempts to separate it from the Holocaust, and sought to thwart what he and many Russians believe is a conspiracy led by the United States to contain Russia. Dugin has called for a “Russian spring” and the domination of Europe through Ukraine.

those who surround Putin all believe this grand destiny narrative

Emboldened by perceptions of the West’s terminal decline, no one in this group loses much sleep about the prospect of an open-ended confrontation with America and Europe. In fact, the core members of this group would all be among the main beneficiaries of a deeper schism.

…that’s what makes Putin’s mad gamble in the Ukraine so dangerous, Putin is in it to win it no matter the blood, that he’s going to feed hundreds of thousands of his own men into this mincer of war against Ukranian fighters with next generation weaponry is a symptom of his devotion.

Likewise, Xi’s desire to become elected as a God in China is a cult of personality minus any personality.

We have two very powerful, very dangerous leaders who feel increasingly isolated and threatened.

What are we in the West going to do?

Putin’s desperation of course is now being purposely manipulated by the West…

Behind Austin’s Call for a ‘Weakened’ Russia, Hints of a Shift

When Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III declared Monday at the end of a stealth visit to Ukraine that America’s goal is to see Russia so “weakened” that it would no longer have the power to invade a neighboring state, he was acknowledging a transformation of the conflict, from a battle over control of Ukraine to one that pits Washington more directly against Moscow.

…protecting innocent Ukrainians from invading Russians is now secondary to a wider American goal of significantly weakening Russia.

Those are two very different goals and of course the American Military Industrial Complex is already making $33Billion in military aid…

Biden says U.S. sending Ukraine another $150 million in aid

President Joe Biden on Friday authorized the shipment of another $150 million in military assistance for Ukraine for artillery rounds and radar systems in its fight against Russia’s invading forces.

Biden said the latest spending means his administration has “nearly exhausted” what Congress authorized for Ukraine in March and called on lawmakers to swiftly approve a more than $33 billion spending package that will last through the end of September.

…$33billion and a new military aim to weaken Russia.

This stopped being about saving innocent Ukrainian lives sometime ago. This is now about making the American Corporate Military Gods of War rich.

We can’t tolerate Putin’s aggression or Xi’s repression, but are we really going to risk  nuclear war to stop Russian influence in the Ukraine or China’s forced reintegration of Taiwan?

Russia sees the Ukraine as theirs, China sees Taiwan as theirs, I don’t believe in either of their claims, but these are regional issues for two countries who share more in common culturally and economically with each other than the West does.

I think we have an obligation in the West to support the Ukraine and the people of Taiwan in resisting dominate from Russia and China, and that support must be military, economic and political, but there has to be very clear limits to that support, because forcing Russia or China into a direct military response could easily spiral out of control.

With the reality of a severe global economic recession looming, the triggers for a fully blown global war keep getting higher.

The latest friction point dangerously includes Iran.

The Iranians are selling Russia missiles and drones.

Israel has responded by threatening to start selling the Ukrainians weapons.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has responded to that threat by warning Israel selling the Ukrainians weapons would destroy its relationship with Israel.

The miscalculation here is that Russia gives the Iranians the final bits of nuclear tech they need for their nuclear weapons program which will incur a military strike by Israel, which will set the entire region ablaze.

With China’s economy faltering, with new Iranian friction points and with the ongoing impact on global commodity prices from the Ukrainian war, we are in a more perilous position than at any other time in modern history and I don’t believe we understand that.

There is no military solution here, only de-escalation.

But no one wants to de-escalate. There is a terrible inevitability in what comes next.

 

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38 COMMENTS

  1. YES, because war is a distraction from the collapse of neo-liberalism and anyone but ANYONE who thinks you can fight a limited nuclear war or use only tactical battlefield nukes…..is so full of shit it must hurt.

    • Gagarin; Totally agree.

      Would add, if one is prepared to allow nuclear force to be used in Taiwan or Ukraine you must accept that it will be used to capture the South Pacific farm that is New Zealand.

      There can be no appeasement, there can be no accommodation to allow imperialism.

      One thing I have considered is with the pro Russian omments on Ben Morgan’s reports (on his interpretation of the war in Ukraine) is that there are people who consider the “enemy of my enemy” (that enemy being capitalism, neo-liberalism, USA, NATO, Western Europe, etc.) is my friend.

      And will consider any excess by their “friends” to be beneficial to their cause even though those “friends” display all the imperialistic expansionism so considered to be at odds with their own believe systems in regards the actions of the imperialist west.

      Looking forward to the day China takes control of Siberia and what the “friends” of those two imperial expansionist countries called Russia and China will think. Should do their heads in.

        • “but USA expansionism shouldn’t even be considered a thought though should it” Naturally USA expansionism (imperialism) is wrong.

          Two (three actually – USA, Russia and China) wrongs don’t make a single right.

          Just pointing out that those who are against USA expansionism (imperialism) are in support of Russia and China expansionism (imperialism) for the simply reason that my enemies enemy is my friend.

          NATO is not expansionist, it simply wants a weak Russia contained within the current Russian borders (Not the annexed regions). Means NATO does not have to spend as much money to stock pile weapons to fight Russian expansionism through the Baltic States and Eastern Europe.

          The finest hypocrisy comes from those who are in favour of Russian and Chinese imperialism but denigrate the USA for theirs.

          You are either for or against imperialism. Picking autocratic (fascist?) led imperialistic nations side versus capitalism imperialism nations is hypocrisy.

          • Gerrit, ‘The finest hypocrisy comes from those who are in favour of Russian and Chinese imperialism but denigrate the USA for theirs.’

            This is a false dichotomy as Russia incursion into Ukraine come from creating a buffer zone from NATO expansionism who overthrew a democratic elected government of ‘Viktor Yanukovych’ in February 2014 who rejected the EU & NATO in favour of Russia & conflating China imperialism what-eva that means hasn’t happened unlike USA imperialism that is well documented.

            NATO has invaded Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Somalia etc… and help bomb Yemen. Your turn?

    • I’m with you on this Gaga.

      Not only the collapse of Neo Liberalism but some existential nasties to be faced as well. We are seeing the last gasps of dying empires all designed to distract and keep things going until the moment the SHTF. We’ve been sold on the idea that Russia’s expansionism into the Ukraine is about geo political and security issues. What no-one is paying much notice to is the vast gas (mainly) and oil reserves that the Ukraine has in the South and East and the vast plains of the old Soviet Bread Basket.

      Similarly with China, it cant feed itself (only 40% potentially arable) and doesnt have enough raw materials. So nothing to suggest that Taiwan is the true or final destination for China either. But all sorts of implications can be drawn from the proposed or actual bases in the Pacific starting at the Spratlys and roughly cutting off NZ and Australia from the US.

  2. Conflating Kyiv as the second Jerusalem should be deemed anti-semitic as this is the place where pogroms against European jews were perpetrated and carried out by White Volunteer Army troops in 1919 not to mention the historic anti-Semitism that been apart of the Ukraine social fabric for centuries.

    Even with the 5 decade sanctions of Iran by the collective west it is a military superpower and the Sahed 136 UAV models that are being deployed in Ukraine are creating havoc proves this assertion not to mention its success against Jihad forces in Syria, Iraq, Yemen backed by NATO and its allies also rumors that Russia is purchasing Iran’s ‘lethal ballistic missiles’ that was used against US military bases in Iraq solidifies Iran’s military status as one of the finest militaries to date and Israel knows this which is why it only uses terrorist tactics to pick at the Iranian but won’t militarily invade because its proxy forces in Lebanon ‘Hezbollah’ are well equipped with Iranian weaponry and training to attack Israeli cities and the Dimona nuclear facilities in the Negev desert.

    I was pondering why the NZ MSM were reporting expelling the Iranian ambassador and using the Kurdish woman death in Iran custody and the recent protest only heighten my scepticism of this issue. Remember Iran is an ally of ‘Russia and China’ and is a major supporter of the Palestinians and have named one of their UAV after one of the worlds ancient cities GAZA.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOb3geG9j2E
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dN96WwnNG4E
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dN96WwnNG4E

  3. what is this ‘authoritarian nightmare that China has become’?
    With their regional committee system ,China is probably more democratic than the U.S!
    In the U.S the politicians are bought and paid for by the 1%.
    People are free to emigrate from China.Over 10% of Aucklands population is Chinese.

    China’s biggest crime’ is beating the Americans at their own game ,using their own.,.rules.

    • When did China get a universal franchise where people can choose their Leader and People’s Congress by secret ballot?Somehow I must have missed it.

  4. The only country with the history of nukes is… Remember Nagasaki & Hiroshima?

    That wasn’t Russia.

    • Hmmmmm, then what is your solution to end WWII . The Allies have invading Japan, with a 1,000,000 plus troops including 10’s of thousands of New Zealanders, resulting in hundreds of thousands on Allied troops being killed, along with millions of Japanese civilians being killed as well. Not included the Soviet Union invading north Japan islands, and never leaving.

      Japan and Japanese culture would have been totally destroyed, my father would have been sent there, along with thousands of young New Zealanders to be killed.

      • The Japanese had been trying to negotiate a peace settlement for a few months, but the USA refused, wanting to use their HUGE investment (about 1/3rd of the cost of WW2) for some political gain. Sadly Stalin knew all about the bomb and bluffed Truman into thinking he wasn’t afraid of the fact that the USA had ‘it’.
        That bit of ‘folk law’ is just that. Propaganda B.S used to justify killing innocent people for war proift/reasons.
        Your fathers live was risked by the Yanks, for profit/politics and NOTHING to do with the Japense desire to fight on.

    • Yup, a point everybody needs to remember. Also that the USA/Nato is the single superpower that is most likely to use their nukes on a first strike, which will then auto trigger another to retaliiate. People also need to consider Russia nuke policy is to launch the lot. End of Nato instantly followed by the rest of us.

  5. Martyn, what you’re saying rings true to a great degree. Check if you agree with my logic. There’s is a chain of events in US politics over the last three years that have had enormous global ramifications. Follow these steps in the evolution of this geopolitical nightmare:

    1. In the US Democrat Party candidates’ campaign, Biden states that he “will destroy the oil & gas industry” if elected.

    2. In the same campaign he described Saudi Arabia as a “Pariah State”. While we may not like Saudi Arabia, they have been the US’s strategic ally in the Middle East through 70 years of different US administrations.

    3. Having won the presidential election, his people immediately set about following up on their threats to the oil & gas industry. These included cancelling the oil pipeline from Canada, holding back fracking leases, throwing environmental hurdles in the way of fracking projects and pressuring the banks to stop lending to oil & gas projects.

    4. As a result of the administration’s attack on the industry, production fell and the oil price doubled as the US suddenly became a net oil importer. This higher price gifted Putin an extra billion USD a day in energy revenues.

    5. In the thug mindset of Putin, the West was essentially capitulating; he would hold all the cards. So, he set in motion his plan to invade Ukraine.

    6. Just over a year after Biden became president, Putin invaded Ukraine. Only then did the Germans realize their massive gas underground storage facility had been slowly bled of gas by Gazprom, so they had zero reserves and were totally dependent on Russian supply. Just as ‘The Donald’ had warned.

    7. As the oil price went through the roof and inflation roared, Biden’s popularity tanked in the polls, so to recover some popularity he started selling down the US strategic oil reserve and fuel prices dipped for a few months. But of course, this was only a temporary reprieve.

    8. So, Biden went cap in hand to the Saudis to ask for more oil to be pumped. It was payback time for Joe – they refused and sent him packing.

    9. In order to rub salt in the wound, last week OPEC, on Saudi insistence, decided to CUT oil production by 2 million barrels a day. Now that’s a definite middle finger to the Biden administration! Expect oil prices to go through the roof in the coming month.

    10. In an angry and ill-considered response, Biden has threatened to end the strategic relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US by refusing to support their weapons systems. Thus, destabilizing the Middle East.

    Not content with starting the war in Ukraine, will Biden’s incompetence now embolden the Iranians to start another? Especially since the US is somewhat distracted by the war in Europe.
    On the news of the OPEC cut, the oil price has already turned a corner, leading to higher gas prices at the pump, a month before the midterm elections…

  6. Until its occupation by Japan and the Nationalist government fleeing China, Taiwan was part of China. As much as Hong Kong.

    If China recognises the South China Sea atolls are not part of its territory, then we should expect Taiwan to become part of China from 2049, and negotiate arrangements with Beijing on that basis. Chinese failure to meet that requirement implies a refusal to conform to international norms … this cuts both ways.

    • Large parts of Siberia were part of China as well until conquest and unequal treaty deals in in 1860. Surely by your reckoning China can claim these back as well? Worth a read;

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amur_Annexation

      “By this, the Treaty of Tientsin was ratified and all the land north of the Amur and east of the Ussuri was ceded to the Russian Empire. Thus, by pure diplomacy and only a few thousand troops, the Russians took advantage of Chinese weakness and the strength of the other European powers to annex 350,000 square miles (910,000 km2) of Chinese territory. With the exception of Muravyov’s rather ceremonial cannonade at Aigun, they had apparently not fired a single shot.”

      • No, China does not claim them. It can economically subordinate and exploit a much larger area of Russia than that without inclusion of non Han minorities.

  7. I’ve noticed a lot of people are dropping their Ukrainian flag from their Twitter bio’s lately. I think the support for escalation in Ukraine is rapidly waning. Putin is getting fed up, and I suspect his next move will be a full on blitz to occupy Kiev and remove Zelensky from office. Remember that Zelensky literally signed a decree to NOT engage in peace talks with Putin (who obviously isn’t going anywhere), so there can be no peaceful solution for Ukraine at this time (i.e. not as long as either Zelenky and/or Putin are in power).
    https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-10-04/zelenskiy-decree-rules-out-ukraine-talks-with-putin-as-impossible

  8. No one will risk nuclear war because at heart they all know Mad still applies. That calculus may exclude losers in high stake games, the most obvious of whom are US neocons.

    The stakes for the neocons, the people who planned this as the century of American supremacy is the US$ as the currency of international exchange. This enables the US to live at the expense of the rest of the world.

    This is what is at stake, the Ukraine conflict is facilitating the battle between those supporting, and those who want to break the dollar hegemony.

  9. The West has really over hyped something that Putin has never said. Bottom line being, if the West really wants to use nukes against Russia, then Russia has the ability to respond in kind. That is all this is about.

    Otherwise, I was impressed that you picked this war, but you also picked a China – Taiwan war and that scares me because the Ukraine war is royally stuffing over Europe while a war closer to us is going to royally screw us over too. Meanwhile the architect behind the Ukraine war is doing just nicely, relatively speaking and no doubts the same will happen if this other war breaks out.

    And yet we’ll blame Russia and China anyway. The manipulator gets a free pass.

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