GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and the Crimean attacks – Important?

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In the three weeks since we predicted that the Russians were exhausted, the front line has stabilised as predicted, a tired Russia army unable to advance. Since the last article, Russia has not made any significant gains and although the Ukrainians are maintaining pressure near Kherson, they are not gaining ground. Instead, fighting a battle of attrition aiming to isolate and defeat the Russians in that area.  This week, the action is a far from the front lines, and can be broken down into the following activities:

  • Russia’s covert mobilisation.
  • Hybrid operations.
  • Ukraine’s Crimean gambit.
  • Plans for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. 

Currently, the most topical of which is the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.  The facility is being shelled creating lots of media commentary.  Although the situation is of considerable concern, it does not appear to be of much relevance to the campaign.  It is more likely that this is an example of the ‘fog of war’. The Ukrainians claiming that Russia is using the plant to store military equipment; and the Russians blaming the Ukrainians for shelling it.  It seems unlikely that the Russians would intentionally endanger a piece of infra-structure vital for a newly annexed Zaporizhzhian Republic. In fact there are unconfirmed reports that it is being wired into the Russian national grid.  Likewise, the Ukrainians are unlikely to want the plant to be damaged. It is most likely that this is an example of misadventure, the Russians storing equipment there and the Ukrainians shelling the area near the plant.  The shelling hitting the plant could even be a mistake.  

And, at this time there is much more important activity happening elsewhere in the campaign.  The most interesting of which is the attack on Saki Airfield in Crimea on 9 August 2022. The airfield is approximately 220km from the nearest Ukrainian forces and is a base for aircraft that support the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet. Yesterday, the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence assessed that loss of these aircraft will have a significant impact on Russian naval operations in the area.

However, the focus of interest is the attack’s distance behind Russian lines because it demonstrates a previously unreported Ukrainian capability that could be:

  • Long-range ground launched missiles, possibly a Ukrainian development of the Tochka system increasing its range. 
  • The capability to conduct either guided missile or bombing attack launched from an aircraft. 
  • Long-range drones.
  • Special forces or partisans. 

Satellite photos were published a few days after the attack and provide useful information confirming the destruction of Russian aircraft and providing some clues about how the attack was carried out.  At this stage it appears to have been an operation conducted either infiltrated special forces or by local partisans.  Two factors support this hypothesis:

  • Russian air defence was defeated.  It seems unlikely that the Russia’s relatively advanced air defence network in Crimea was defeated, during daylight without being filmed. Some media commentators have linked this attack to United States anti-radar missiles being used by Ukraine. However, if missile and radar sites had been targeted during the daylight attack it is highly likely that there would be video evidence available.  It seems likely that a drone strike would have been captured on film too. 
  • The pattern of damage.  The satellite photos show that the airfield’s central ammunition storage area and maintenance area was attacked and that individual aircraft were targeted on the ground. The blast damage across these areas is vastly different in size. The aircraft appearing to have been targeted individually with small bombs. This pattern indicates a sabotage attack.

The operation appears to be a ground attack, leaving us to conclude that Ukraine either has a competent special forces capability or a strong and capable local partisan network in Crimea.  The former is more likely, remember that since 2014 Ukraine has been trained by the United States and the United Kingdom both nations with a long history of using special forces.  Further, Soviet SPETZNAZ soldiers trained extensively in sabotage of airfields, it was a counter to NATO’s air superiority and it is unlikely that this type of operation has been forgotten in the Ukrainian military.  Given time, an operation like this would be relatively easy for competent special forces well-versed in the local culture to conduct. Crimea is physically easy to infiltrate from Ukraine, there is good intelligence and there are likely to be sympathetic locals.  

Strategically, this attack is very important because it escalates the war.  Crimea was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 and to-date has not been impacted by the war.   The attack challenges Russia.  An attack on Crimea is an attack on part of the Russian homeland sending a message to Putin that Ukraine is willing to attack any annexed areas.  The attack is also a message to potential collaborators that Russia is not a ‘safe bet’, that even if an area is annexed that Ukraine still has the capability and the will to fight for it.  A clear counter to Russian hybrid war plans for annexation of conquered territory.  

In the last article we discussed the Manoeuvrist idea of ‘simultaneity’, or using your own operations to overwhelm the enemy’s ability to make good decisions.  This attack contributes significantly to forcing the Russians into a state of simultaneity. Russian planners currently having to contend with a large Ukrainian push near Kherson, maintaining pressure from the east against the Donbas, keeping pressure on Kharkov, countering Ukrainian local attacks in both areas that threaten the Belgorod to Izyum supply line and now needing to contemplate potential attacks in Crimea.  It is a big task.  Russian planners will be thinking hard about the Kerch Bridge that links Crimea to Russia because woe betide the Russia commander who lets that bridge be successfully attacked.  

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The direct military effect on the campaign of this attack is that Russia now needs to divert more resources away from the frontline to protect Crimea.  At a strategic level, this attack is a way of countering Russia’s rapidly advancing plans to annex parts of Ukraine. For example, on 11 August 2022 the pro-Russian government in Zaporizhzhia passed a motion to run a plebiscite in September about becoming part of Russia.  Countering Russia’s hybrid war, or their use of political tools to support the military campaign is vitally important. By demonstrating that Ukraine intends to fight for all of its historic territory; and more importantly has the capability to do so, tells people in occupied areas to think twice about supporting puppet regimes.  In turn, this forces further resource burden on Russian military planners because if people in occupied areas have hope, they are motivated to resist tying more of the occupation force down in rear area security operations far from the frontline. 

The final point of note at this time, is Russia’s increasingly desperate search for more soldiers.  This trend tells us a great deal about Putin’s situation and that he is concerned about his political support at home.  It is interesting; and likely a positive sign, that he feels he cannot escalate and mobilise fully so needs to work covertly hiring mercenaries and creating volunteer battalions. More importantly, if he does not have the support to mobilise, he is unlikely to have the support for using nuclear weapons.  It is unlikely that the continuing covert mobilisation will impact on the campaign.  Russia needs well trained technically competent soldiers and modern weapons rather than more ‘cannon fodder’.  At this stage in the war it would be more sensible to support the covert mobilisation with a ‘real’ operational pause to allow for training, reconstitution and reorganisation.  Further, this week North Korea offered Russia military assistance.  North Korea offering your regime help could be interpreted as a strategic indicator that you are losing.  

In summary this week look out for the following activity and these predictions:

  • In the north, Russian forces will continue to threaten Kharkov maintaining pressure on Ukraine. It is very unlikely that they will achieve anything more that shelling the city. 
  • The Ukrainians will continue to hold their positions near Sloviansk. This week there were unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian advances north towards Izyum. It is likely that over time more details will be confirmed, however it is not likely that this will be a significant advance. Instead, the Ukrainians are probing north using the Siverts-Donetsky River to protect their right flank the aim is to contribute to Russian uncertainty, forcing them to keep combat power in this area rather than in the south.  Ukraine’s operation in the east is about fixing a large part of Russia’s combat power in one place far away from the decisive battle. 
  • This week it is reported that Russia has approximately 25,000 soldiers into the area around Kherson.  It is likely that they have taken the troops from nearby areas like Mariupol or Melitopol.  The attack in Crimea will force them to reconsider this movement and may stop them sending more troops to Kherson or even draw troops away from the frontline to provide security.  
  • Keep watching the south. The Russian counter attack near Kherson has not pushed the Ukrainians out of the area, in fact there are reports that all of the bridges over the Dnipro River are now compromised, effectively isolating Russian forces in this area.  If this is true then it may set the conditions for a significant Russian defeat. 
  • The movement of troops west towards Kherson and the need to protect targets like the Kerch Bridge and intimidate the local population will weaken the forces defending Russia’s northern boundary roughly along a line through the following towns and villages; Kamainska, Orikhiv, Huliapole and Vuledhar. This may open the possibility for a Ukrainian attack in this area. 
  • Russia’s response to the Crimean attack needs to be observed carefully, at the moment it is disorganised and confused, initially claiming the attack was an accident. However, it could be used as a ‘pivot’ for Russian escalation.  Crimea was annexed. The Russians claim it as rightfully part of Russia so and attack on it is an attack on their homeland.  So it is important watch their considered response will they; ignore it, retaliate with more attacks on Ukrainian cities, throw around more nuclear threats, call for mobilisation.  We don’t yet but it may change the campaign significantly.

The European summer is hot and dry, good conditions for mechanised warfare. The Ukrainians are active around Kherson and appear to have defeated the initial Russian counter attack and now appear to be shaping conditions for the isolation and defeat of a large Russian force west of the Dnipro River. The question remains though whether they have the strength to take the offensive elsewhere. 

Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.

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59 COMMENTS

  1. Ben, you missed the following:
    – Amnesty International reported that the Ukraine are using civilians as human shields
    – That only 20% of the weapons provided by NATO has made it to the front line, the 80% has “disappeared”
    – Nearly all of Ukraine minerals, including oil, are under direct Russia control
    – The Nuclear Plant was sabotaged by Ukraine troops to cause a melt down, luckily the Russians prevented that

    • I’m kind of curious of what sources Ben is using as the common theme is basing the SMO on Western Military thinking which I believe is a huge tactical mistake.

      Whereas the West relies on Shock and awe mainly as the main Military tactic, Russia has clearly shown slow and methodical is their preferred Doctrine. Operation Barbarossa clearly taught them the value of holding their set front lines and wearing out the enemy is a successful tactic, so the front lines or lack of movement in the SMO is really no indication of the true situation. I don’t expect Russian to take much more ground except strategic areas as they have no desire for a full occupation.

      I agree the attack in Crimea caught the Russians by surprise and they have adjusted accordingly by using another Thermobaric missile Yesterday, expect more precise targets as the Wests arms are identified and they are now aware of previously unannounced Western missiles.

      The Nuclear power plant issue according to Ukraine is more misinformation whereas Russia has controlled it since the start of the SMO and now has been reinforced with Anti missile batteries, are we seriously expected to believe the Russians have created their own circular firing squad by attacking it?

  6. Yep, a good assessment. Just be careful evaluating the nuclear power plant situation. The Russians do not think the same way you and I do and they are quite capable of creating a radiation scare if they think it benefits them. The hooking up of the power to the Russian grid may be scuttlebut or truth and we won’t know which until the European geiger counters start crackling.
    It is certainly getting more and more interesting by the day.
    Cheers.

  7. The Russians will have to shift their air bases many hundreds of kms from the front lines. The Russians are running out of troops and ideas. The Ukrainians are going to win this war.
    Slava Ukraine.

      • Hear hear.
        Let’s try and debate ‘facts’, as we’re drop feed them, rather than total B.S. and utter P.R-propaganda mottos.
        That’s just a waste of space and energy having to read past them.

  8. Whereas, Ben; counterprop to your prop; https://southfront.org/battle-for-the-largest-nuclear-power-plant-in-europe/
    “Unable to launch any kind of counteroffensive, the Kiev regime has switched to a strategy of nuclear terror. Over the past week, Ukrainian forces have significantly intensified attacks on nuclear power plants and strategic civilian facilities in the Donetsk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson regions, as well as on the territory of Russia.
    On the night of August 10, the Armed Forces of Ukraine hit the Donetsk brewery plant. As a result, there was a leak of more than 6 tons of ammonia, which infected an area of 2 kilometers.
    At the same time, the Ukrainian MLRS HIMARS fired at the Kakhovskaya Hydro Power Plant, creating a flood risk for thousands of local civilians.
    On August 9, a sabotage group blew up a power line located 20 kilometers from the Kursk nuclear power plant in the Russian Kursk region.
    The greatest concern however is caused by the constant shelling by Ukrainian forces of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, which fell under control of Russian forces in late February and which operates with a local staff under Russian control.
    On August 11, at least ten shells launched by the Ukrainian army landed in the area of the plant. One of the Ukrainian shells fell just 10 meters from the radioactive substance storage facility.
    The strikes were carried out by MLRS and heavy artillery, from the right bank of the Dnieper, from the Ukrainian positions of Nikopol, Marganets and Tomakovka.
    The thermal power plant and the equipment of the pools of the cooling system of nuclear reactors were partially damaged. A fire station nearby was also shelled. The critical infrastructure of the station was not affected.
    Having lost control of the largest power plant in Europe, Kiev tries its best to prevent Russia from controlling it.
    At the moment, there is no threat of a global nuclear catastrophe. The Kiev regime would need to launch a tactical nuclear strike to damage the station’s nuclear reactors.
    Thus, Kiev is trying to turn the plant into an exclusion zone.
    In the event of destruction of the dry storage of spent nuclear fuel or isotope storage for radiography located on the territory of the plant, the immediate area around may be contaminated. This would significantly complicate the use of the plant.
    Ukrainian forces are targeting the power lines and cooling systems in order to provoke an emergency shutdown and damage the power lines. In this case, the whole of Ukraine would suffer electricity shortages. Shutdown of the plant is a trump card in Russia’s hands.
    On the other hand, Kiev uses it as an argument to blame Russia for nuclear terrorism. Accusing Russia of shelling its own forces in the plant, Ukraine appeals to the UN Security Council to introduce a demilitarized zone in the region.”

  10. Scott Ritter News
    12 hours ago
    Ukraine is suffering huge losses in the DPR, the AFU soldiers are deserting.

    We collected the main thing from the briefing of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

    Kiev lost more than 2 thousand soldiers during the offensive of the Allied army near Soledar.

    As a result of the strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces, the losses of the 56th Motorized Infantry Brigade of the AFU in manpower exceeded 70%.

    5 control points, 6 howitzer platoons and 4 MLRS platoons were hit.

    ▪️HIMARS shells were intercepted in the area of Novaya Kakhovka.

          • What are you then? Oh! right, your a Hilary Clinton supporter – CIA talking points drone scum nugget!
            Enjoy your day

          • B.S.
            Most of the world countries and if you calculated by population, do NOT support Ukraine, as per the UN vote.
            It’s just propaganda and lazyness on the behalf of the propaganised to not check up on what’s happening via sources other than the known lying western ‘newspapers and media’.

          • Most of the world supporting Ukraine consists about 13% of the population, most of Africa, Asia, South America are in the other camp.

              • What a puerile comment. Did you ever read a history of the area of Ukraine? Kiev on the Dnieper river was the old capitol of Russia. A trading hub, it was built up even more so with the invasion of the Vikings who were finally overcome by Alexander Nevsky on the famous Battle on the Ice.
                Then the great old city was reduced to rubble in 1240 by the ruthless Mongolian invasion. The the Tartars invaded but were finally driven out by Ivan the Terrible. After which it was occupied for a while by the Poles who believe it or not had an Empire for a while.
                There are linguistic variations and differences between Russia and Ukraine as there were all over Eurasia. European countries i.e. France had linguistic differences in different regions. This began to change with the introduction of public broadcasting.
                The Bolsheviks created Ukraine for reasons which are explained in the supplied link.
                https://isj.org.uk/ukraine-and-the-bolsheviks/

          • Americans and american lovers do, like you. Humans don’t. Not one human being on earth supports Zelensky.

  11. Humanity is in so much trouble right now. Trying to get through with tribalism and wishful thinking has never been more dangerous.

    We can’t afford to carry on with fantasy.

    • Denby — tedheath has been watching BBC/CNN coverage again…with their tall tales of the brave Ukraine President, the “Ghost of Kiev” who was a ghost, the Snake Island “Martyrs” who are all still alive…

  13. Just for all the blockheads here, only one side has any reason to bombard a nuclear power plant. To support this action is to condone nuclear terrorism.

  16. All I can say is, thank goodness New Zealand has no nuclear facilities that a hostile power could seize and use against us.

    The UN and the IAEA have called for the de-militarisation of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, and for IAEA inspectors to be allowed in to monitor and inspect the facility. Both sides say they want the plant to be inspected. Both sides accuse the other of preventing the IAEA monitors from entering the facility.

    Ukraine has no motive for preventing IAEA inspection of the facility

    My guess is inspectors would release photo and documentary evidence of the weaponisation of the nuclear power station and that it has been heavily militarised by the Russian occupiers and is being used, or has the potential to be used, as a safe haven forward fire base against the surrounding area.

    Such revelations would turn the whole world including the Russian people against the war.

    The reckless use of a nuclear power station as a military asset/weapon fits with Putin’s policy of nuclear blackmail against the West.

    Ben is right Zaporizhia can not be a major battleground. Ukraine can end the occupation of Zaporizhia by defeating Russia away from the plant on other fronts which would isolate the nuclear power plant’s occupiers.

    This begs the question what would the Russians do then?

    Would Putin act on his nuclear threat, not with nuclear weapons, but by ordering the destruction of Zaporizhia?

    It is imperative that the UN and other world powers increase the diplomatic and political pressure on Russia to allow IAEA monitors into the plant to expose any Russian attempts to mine the reactor and or cooling systems.

    • Pat, it’s established that it’s the Ukies doing the bombarding. I’m not surprised, the neo-Nazis are desperate and don’t give a toss about radiating their stupid European allies.

  18. the only remaining question is how does the US and it’s ‘allies’ get out of this mess without losing too much face.

  19. So Russia would want to bomb their own troops guarding the nuclear facility and create a nuclear disaster for Europe…just to create a narrative? O-kay. More likely the meth heads on the other side have lost the plot and are attacking everything, from young ballerinas (Youtube, n.d.) to nuclear power plants. The American response to these Ukranian bombings was “Russia should get out of Ukraine then”. So just to be clear, the Americans and their posse don’t care about rules of engagement, the Ukranian people (they certainly couldn’t give a stuff about Russians) or the destruction of Europe. America should get their military bases out of [insert country] then.

    Youtube. (n.d.). Retrieved from
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQNQ_vT_j-k&list=UUCDWiSkeu-CK2oklDt7YgyA&index=1

  20. Ben, your NATO/nazi buddies deliberately shelling within a kilometre of a nuclear power plant is, in fact, important, and even more egregious than their routine targeting of uncontested urban areas in the liberated Donbass with butterfly mines to maim and kill children.

    • Quoted from ‘The Washington Examine’ in case dunderheads think I am making this up:

      ‘NATO’s first secretary general, Hastings “Pug” Ismay, famously declared that the organization’s mission was “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.” It’s a wonderful line that encapsulated 75 years of brutal history and tragically learned lessons. And it’s worth reexamining Ismay’s framework through this prism to understand just how, exactly, NATO was intended to ensure just that.’
      https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/weekly-standard/what-is-the-purpose-of-nato-keep-the-russians-out-the-americans-in-and-the-germans-down

      • These odious witticisms spun into policy are the legacy of the colonialist, capitalist public school system, obsequious cruelty all the way.

      • NATO was formed in 1949 so only 4 years after the conclusion of WWII and the “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down” quote comes as a surprise to you?
        Also re ‘keeping the Russians out’ again not surprising given that the Soviets had Eastern Europe under forced occupation . . something you will find Britain / USA were not doing with Western Europe (otherwise France wouldn’t have been able to voluntarily withdraw from NATO in ’66).

  22. IAEA inspection of the Russian Zaporizhzhia atomic power station still has not happened. 

    Russian forces occupied the nuclear power station in March. The UN has called for the nuclear power station to be de-militarised. A call that the Russian military forces occupying the nuclear plant have refused to heed.

    The external power lines and a sub-station that distribute electricity to Ukraine have been damaged by shelling and fire.  (Both sides have blamed the other of staging a false flag attack on the power lines and sub-station.) 

    These power lines and sub-station have a dual purpose, as well as supplying power to Ukraine generated at Zaporizhzhia, they act as a UPS in case of a reactor shut down and loss of power at the nuclear plant. In that case, grid power coming mostly from a nearby thermal power plant is taken from the grid to power the cooling systems that prevent reactor meltdown. There are back up diesel generators on site. The on-site back up diesel generators are not expected to be able to continuously run only for a matter of days without refueling. Which could be a problem in a war zone.

    Prevailing weather patterns would carry fall-out from a meltdown toward Europe.

    IAEA mission expected to visit Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant

    Erin Doherty  – Aug 26, 2022 – 

    https://www.axios.com/2022/08/26/iaea-mission-zaporizhzhia-russia-ukraine

    The risks to Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia power plant, explained

    Europe’s biggest nuclear power plant is also its most vulnerable.

    By Ellen Ioanes  Aug 20, 2022, 5:36pm EDT

    The biggest risk to Zaporizhzhia is a power outage

    ….“The biggest concern is [the] cooling of a nuclear power plant,” Bunn told Vox. “In general, to avoid an accident at a nuclear power plant, you need to keep the reactor core underwater, and the spent fuel pool underwater, so they’re continuously cooled.” That cooling process requires electricity, which now comes from Ukraine’s external power grid…

    …. a number of those lines have already been cut, increasing the possibility that Zaporizhzhia might have to rely on diesel-powered generators to support the cooling process. It’s unclear how much fuel those generators have, given that Russian forces have reportedly been siphoning off the fuel for their own purposes, Bunn said.

    “Diesel’s a highly sought commodity in any war zone,” he said. “There are supposed to be days of diesel at the site; we don’t know whether that’s still true or not.” The Ukrainian nuclear agency Energoatom said on Friday that Russian forces were seeking diesel to fuel the generators in case of power loss, according to Reuters.

    https://www.vox.com/2022/8/20/23314161/ukraines-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant-russia-united-nations

    In the wrong hands nuclear power plants are weapons.

    The message is clear if you have a nuclear power station on your territory it is a unique dangerous and powerful weapon that a hostile force can use against you.

    If I had to guess. I would guess that the IAEA investigation will not proceed. There will be no IEAE inspection of the Zaporizhziia nuclear power station while it is under Russian control.

    In the unlikely event that an IAEA team do go to inspect the site. they will not survive to tell the tale.

    Each side will accuse the other of staging a false flag attack on them.

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