How does Xi respond to Pelosi’s provocation?

Pelosi may have triggered consequences far larger than she has considered.

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Just imagine for one minute how spastic with rage America would be in right now if Xi visited Puerto Rico and declared never ending support to their independence movement?

Americans would be so spastic with rage they wouldn’t even have time to cancel the ableist who described their rage as spastic!

How China responds to Pelosi’s vanity project to be a footnote in history could end up starting a whole new chapter of conflict.

Look, I dislike the organ harvesting, mass surveillance, human rights abusing, cultural genocidal committing Communist Chinese regime as much as the next righteous human, but provocation like this right before Xi’s coronation as God seems incredibly stupid.

How China responds could set a dangerous miscalculation on either side.

If China do nothing, it could suggest they are a paper dragon without the resolve of Putin and America will continue to goad them until someone miscalculates.

I argued Putin would invade the Ukraine because the Russians saw the attempted coup in Kazakhstan as an attempt by the West to encroach into their immediate sphere of influence, I fear China’s need to be provocative might be driven by the same dynamics after Pelosi’s provocation.

I think the lesson Xi is taking from Putin in the Ukraine is to have far more modest objectives, if this is what has been the lesson, China could reassert its dominance by invading one of the smaller Islands near Taiwan like the Kinmen Islands.

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This wouldn’t be the armageddon of a full invasion of Taiwan, it would be a short sharp over whelming use of Force and then a call for ceasefire, it would freak out the Planet, test American resolve and allow China to outshine Russia and the US.

The next Communist Conference is in November, any sudden build up of Chinese  Airforce and Navy will be the only warning if they attempt this strategy.

Pelosi may have triggered consequences far larger than she has considered.

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44 COMMENTS

  1. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would lead to a huge loss of life, mainly the PLA, & also the corresponding loss of face. Hopefully the Chinese know this, they will make the usual protests, nothing more.

    There is no way the PLA could successfully invade Tiwan, unless they go nuclear.

    • the PLA is no longer 6 million peasants armed with SKSs get that through your skull,
      that’s why the yanks fear and loath them they threaten US hegemony in the pacific, it’s nowt to do with anyones ‘freedom’

    • Haha, sounds like the PLA stool pidgins are out if force!

      The PLA is completely inexperienced with fighting a modern war, especially against a prepared modern military. They look great in parades goose stepping, but that’s not much use when the shooting starts. The PLA also relies on conscripted troops, their training consists on looking good when marching in a parade, but they are not hardened soldiers of the type needed in an invasion.

      Only the USA has experience in modern sea borne invasions and that goes back to the pacific during WW2, and it’s not easy. This knowledge especially how to defend, has been passed on to Taiwan via military advisors.

      The island of Taiwan has very few beaches that are suitable for an invasion & they are well defended. Like wise airborne invasions are very risky, unless the paratroopers can be reinforced by heavy troops & armoured vehicles. This is very difficult to achieve even with air superiority. Check out operation market garden in Holland 1944.

      Taiwans navy has a number of very sophisticated submarines, these also would cause problems for an invasion fleet.

      They also have a modern airforce that will match the PLA airforce, cruise missiles can take out the PLA air bases that are close enough to provide air support to the invasion fleet.

      Sure the PLA would win eventually, but at what cost?

      • terry try dragging yourself into the 21st century…underestimating your opponent is the road to defeat

        the japanese are too short sighted to be fighter pilots, the japanese can’t build a modern fighter…..bollocks is that a zero on my tail shooting the shit out of me?

        • It’s not a matter of the USA or Taiwan underestimating the PLA, navy & airforce & it’s equipment. The danger is China believing it own propaganda and thinking they can easily win.

            • Hmm, some of the best US Navy officers do well as the opposition force in war games, they do what doctrine tells them not to. In China to do so may end your career, in the US you’re considered for flag rank. The general staff of US armed forces value critical thinking. They certainly remember how the Japanese navy & their tactics ruled the pacific from Pearl Harbour to up to mid 1944.

              China has a problem that is in part cultural and also something that infects authoritarian regimes. You tell the boss what he wants to hear, so you won’t get executed.

  2. I think it was the opposite Xi threatening the US not to visit Taiwan.

    “China has ratcheted up warnings to the US about a planned trip to Taiwan in August by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, even suggesting a possible military response, according to new reports.

    The behind-the-scenes rhetoric was significantly stronger than the threats Beijing has made previously regarding US interaction with Taiwan, the Financial Times first reported Sunday, citing six people familiar with the private message to the Biden administration.

    The warning signaled a possible military response, the Financial Times said.

    While China has long insisted that Taiwan is a part of its territory, the US has maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity — acknowledging Beijing’s claim but not endorsing it.

    China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman on Monday confirmed the report.

    “We are seriously prepared,” spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters at a regular briefing, when asked for comment about the contents of the report.

    When asked what kind of response China was “seriously prepared for” and if it would be a military or a diplomatic response, Zhao said: “If the US side is bent on going its own way, China will take strong measures to resolutely respond and counteract.”

    China has ratcheted up warnings to the US about a planned trip to Taiwan in August by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, even suggesting a possible military response, according to new reports.

    The behind-the-scenes rhetoric was significantly stronger than the threats Beijing has made previously regarding US interaction with Taiwan, the Financial Times first reported Sunday, citing six people familiar with the private message to the Biden administration.

    The warning signaled a possible military response, the Financial Times said.

    “The United States should be held responsible for any serious consequences,” he added.

    China has not said what specific actions it would take, although speculation has centered on a new round of threatening military exercises or even an attempt to prevent Pelosi’s plane from landing by declaring a no-fly zone over Taiwan.

    The White House National Security Council and the State Department declined to comment on the report.

    China has been stepping up military activity around Taiwan, seeking to pressure the democratically elected government there to accept Chinese sovereignty. ”

    https://nypost.com/2022/07/25/china-escalates-warnings-on-pelosis-possible-taiwan-trip/

  3. “I think the lesson Xi is taking from Putin in the Ukraine is to have far more modest objectives, if this is what has been the lesson, China could reassert its dominance by invading one of the smaller Islands near Taiwan like the Kinmen Islands.”

    Good point as this would provide the PRC with an ideal ‘middle ground’ response . .

  4. I have been wondering if China has exaggerated its offence to tis visit. Who can take Pelosi seriously. What does it change? My thought is that China is deliberately making an issue of this to justify something they want to do anyway , and using this as a sort of justification. The opposite of the US commentators suggesting that they are all bluff.
    We live in interesting times.
    D J S

    • Pelosi isn’t just some crooked US politician. She’s the next in line to succeed Joe Biden after the even more evil and incompetent Kamala Haaretz. Whatever the rhetoric, this had Biden’s approval.

  5. Pelosi is drunk and a crook. Best thing Xi can do is leave her alone so she and her party can carry on destroying America from within

  6. When 1970s feminists in nz fought for better rights for women most of them didn’t think that they were to be lapdogs doing the barking for conservative men as it seems Pelosi is. Even if they didn’t have the poor mother and working woman at the forefront of their minds, more the aim of advancing themselves from better education opening up opportunities, they weren’t so narrow and conservative then. To paraphrase Shakespeare ‘What a piece of work is woman’.

    In 2022 woman reaching for power seems to be starting from a base of 1922, and is still apparently unfolding similar to the transition from ape to a human adult standing upright at all times relying on her own virtues, principles and diplomatic and convivial personality.

  7. Meme of the day: “remind me again why we sent an 82 year old slightly demented denture-clicking alcoholic to Taiwan?”
    As a freedom of navigation exercise she’s pretty annoying.

  8. Pelosi is a self serving corporate whore, bereft of the intellect, and moral fibre required to stop herself from being used to goad China into yet another of Joe Bidens owners wars of acquisition… This behavior from the “leaders of the free world” shows us what a crock of shit that title they gave themselves really is..

  9. Big bad Joe is going to get really tough on China. He is going to slam them with 20% instead of the usual 10%.
    Yeah, that’ll show them.

    • In fact 20% would probably tip China over and the Americans know it.

      If you think China has a bright and shiny future, you’re reading the wrong stuff. Some points:

      Short term: it faces a banking and realestate crisis the scale of which will make the GFC look trivial. The entire secondary banking sector is a giant Ponzi scheme.

      Long term: it is already in demographic collapse with its population due to HALVE by 2050 thanks to Mao’s one child policy and the rise of the middle class.

      You think China can afford to squander a million men in the straits trying to invade Taiwan? Those kids are all from one child families so the Party dare not face the civil revolt. Taiwan is bristling with SAMs and anti shipping missiles. Further, the PLA is largely configured to suppress internal revolt, not fight a war against a modern foe. The last war it fought was against Vietnam in the 70s.

      China is a dead man walking

      • It sounds as if you would enjoy China falling over Andrew.
        You did a thorough job of listing their problems and malfunctions and misbehaviour etc.
        Now will you do the same for the USA as I am not sure where they are on the slippery slope of degradation and dementia.

        • I wish the best for the Chinese people and the worst for its thug rulers. Don’t forget it has a million of its citizens in concentration camps even as I write, and god knows how many dissidents under house arrest.

          China has 3000 years of authoritarian dynasties with intermissions of ‘warring states’ periods of internal turmoil. Based on what I read, it’s due for another of the latter.
          The problem for NZ is that this major export customer is potentially unstable so we should focus on market diversification to minimise impact on us as best we can.

      • So Andrew —are you saying China is not a threat at all then, right?

        ‘Mao’s’ one-child policy? LOL – show’s how little you know about China.

  10. China don’t just seem to be threatening Taiwan.

    “Five of the missiles fired by China landed in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone off Hateruma, an island far south of Japan’s main islands, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said. He said Japan protested the missile landings to China as “serious threats to Japan’s national security and the safety of the Japanese people”.”

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/china-conducts-precision-missile-strikes-in-taiwan-strait-after-nancy-pelosi-visit/SNQOXHHW3RXTMAW34J3Z7RFBDA/

    • Correct.

      China has also failed in diplomatic terms in that it has created enemies out of all its neighbours. It has no real allies for this reason. (It has a couple of dependent states, such as North Korea and Pakistan but they are not allies in the true sense of the word because they’re liabilities rather than assets)

  11. Psycho: We’re getting back together, Brenda!!!

    Brenda: We were never an item, psycho.

    Psycho: We’re getting back together whether you want to or not!

    Brenda: Piss off, psycho!

    Psycho: I’m gonna kill you and marry your corpse!

    China is the psycho.

  12. If you aren’t awake now you should be.
    I’ve said this for some years, China is coming for the pacific
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-05/defence-expert-paul-dibb-china-threat-australia-defence/101302104

    Paul Dibb is a former director of the Defence Intelligence Organisation and published the influential Review of Australia’s Defence Capabilities in the 1980s
    He says Australia now faces the probability of “high-intensity conflict” in our region
    He’s calling for Australia to acquire “huge numbers” of long-range strike missiles to act as a deterrent “

    We need a lot of long range anti air and anti ship missiles and offshore strike capacity pronto , boats and planes.
    Conflict is no longer improbable it is likely.
    We are so pathetically unprepared.

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