Boom, as TDB predicted, Roe vs Wade did have an impact on Luxon and the political spectrum continues to fracture!
The Spinoff are copying our narrative, the mainstream media are following it and finally after almost 6 months of TDB pointing this dynamic out, every political pundit worth their salt accepts our premise that the 2023 election will be fought over who NZ voters fear most, National/ACT Government or a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government.
Folks you can read it here first or read it in the mainstream media 3 months later.
There are of course political winners and losers from the latest Poll.
WINNERS:
Māori voters: With JT as the new president of the Māori Party, Māoridom have been given the clear wink that Labour and the Māori Party can work together and this is incredibly powerful. No electorate votes en bloc the way Māoridom can and with their Māori seats plus MMP, the dynamics of overhang can generate here. We will see more split voting between Māori Party and Labour voters than we have ever seen. In half a decade, Willie Jackson and the Labour Māori Caucus has been able to get $3billion in extra funding, that’s twice as much as the entire Waitangi Tribunal have managed to gain for Māori! Māoridom know they will never get that under National or ACT. The Māori Party are well on their way to being the Queenmaker.
Abortion: The huge slump in Chris Luxon’s support was always going to happen when women voters realised how much of a Handmaids Tale level anti-abortionist he was. Abortion is the real winner in this poll.
David Seymour & ACT: He can look liberal on Abortion because ACT are uber liberal on it while ignoring all the policy he’s promoting to start a race war.
Greens: They have learned the secret to Green Party success, shut the fuck up and say nothing alienatingly woke and people might vote for them.
Labour: Despite wall to wall hate coverage by the right wing mainstream media, they are still 34.7% AND Jacinda is 41.2% in preferred leadership polling.
NZ First: Winston is still out there, on just under 3% he’s still in striking distance!
LOSERS:
Christian Lex Luther: Chris Luxon has had a bad day at the office. His personal preferences took an enormous blow and that’s why you saw so much National Party pushback at images like this…
…they knew it had hurt him.
Christian Right: Turns out God doesn’t want you to have political power either!
PREDICTIONS:
There are few single issues that have the power to cross 5% threshold.
Feral lunatic anti-abortionism is one of them.
You forget in the city how regressive parts of NZ are.
Get out past the city limits and I’m always surprised to see all those anti-abortion billboards so proudly erected on local land.
If the fringe right who usually waste as sub 5% vote could unite, their catch cry would be more restrictive rules if not a total ban.
If a NZ Conservative + Brian Tamaki Party merged and crossed the 5% threshold and were necessary to form the next Government, National and ACT would have to negotiate.
Either way, Roe vs Wade IS going to have a role in the 2023 election and the Right could manage to use MMP in a way that defeats the Left for two terms.
There is enormous polarisation and frustration at the political spectrum driven by social media hate algorithms that is driving a subtle violence that is ever growing in its malice and ignorance.
People are ripe for manipulation and their pain will only fuel this feverishness.
We. Must. Fight. Back.
We are not going to allow far right American Christian madness to manifest here.
We can’t.
The Left has to start viewing the 2023 election as the existential threat it is.
A National/ACT Government would be radical enough, a National/ACT/Fringe Government would be fucking terrifying.
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So what ? It’s what is being done to living children left in the slippery hands of Oranga Tamariki which should sink this government and their self-serving agenda of abolishing the Commissioner for Children and trying to silence everybody else with an absurd Centre of Excellence with a bully character seemingly straight from the pages of the Bros Grimm.
absolutely!
The fact that children go hungry every day ( and it is NOT always the fault of their parents)is a crime sanctioned by our neo liberal governments simply because of their shit economic policies.
Should the Green Party not be in fourth place? Or is 8.5% for the Greensters higher then the 10% for Act? Mind, math is hard and based on facts. So i guess that makes the Green Party the third highest ranking party even though they are not.
I want a strong NZDF and the Greens don’t want that so they’ll never be mainstream.
There is a reason why Australia hasn’t experienced a recession in 40 years where New Zealand has gone through several and it has everything to do with intelligence.
we can’t afford a ‘strong’ NZDF and that’s just a fact of life.
And having the God given ability to dig up billions of tons of expensive minerals and energy resources at will and ship it off overseas ..
ask the nats
National is only down by 0.4%..not a death blow
The latest in crises under Labour, the health crisis, and it is a crisis, is something that should be the last straw for voters and Labour and gold for an opposition party, but so far, not so much.
I think the answer to why that is, is Luxon is unlikeable and has been invisible lately, the rest of his party are creeps and National has trotted out their age-old unaffordable tax cut bribe to rich pricks that can only mean health will get even worse. And we all know National are as responsible as their slightly more woke twin, Labour, for the god-awful mess it is in. So voters are going cold on National but not exactly embracing Labour either.
Therefore this latest poll changes nothing. Two main political parties that are both shit and both near identical in every respect, the next two biggest parties are also repellent, one far-right and can only make matters even worse and the other lost up its own arse with wokeness and utterly irrelevant. Then a collection of rag-tag parties make up the vacuum.
Tough been a voter in ’23!
N.B. It’s “en bloc” or “as a block”, not “on block”…
Martyn please ask the most transparent government why they have stopped publishing the numbers of people leaving NZ? It was done daily until last weeks record numbers. https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19/more-information/passenger-arrivals-departures/
A hanged parliament is on the way! A minority government with no majority is another election waiting in the wings in less than 18 months.
By election time next year I think there will be more on most people’s mind than abortion . The mistake of trying to organise a health reform in the middle of a pandemic and with the main players very unhappy with the referee. The failure to re organise polytechnic will show up and shine a light on other reform mistakes. This Labour government will go down as the government that wasted the oppetunity of a lifetime with voters giving them a clear run at change the downward direction of so many especially Maori.
David Seymours policies such as a vote on Cogovernance is in response to the lefts sneaky attempt to bring to make changes to our democracy under the radar. Thank god someone is standing up against it.
Well, NZ First will not, at this stage, form a Government with Labour next year, due to the attempted trespass order against him via the Speaker, and Jacinda not speaking out about this…so, next year could be National/ACT/NZ First Government.
I’d vote for that Nathan . Winston in the right wing mix would fuck ACT up nicely!
Oh and how delicious it would be to see those arsehole Natz grovelling to NZ First.
Too Funny.
It’s extraordinary that MSM have been talking and polling about the next election as if it was only 3 or 4 months away…
When it finally eventuates, at the end of next year… make no mistake….Labour /Greens will win the next election…
It’s still 16 months away…that’s 16 more months for people to find out a lot more about the naive simplistic thinking greenhorn Luxon ..not to mention his bewilderingly dumb team.
Yes, there are a lot of social media addicted morons out there now wandering around with there newly formed anaesthetised frontal lobes, smartphones glued to their ears so as not to miss the latest instructions from their mentor Mike Hosking, but equally, with Jacinda Ardern still polling at 41.2 percent, even after a long, sustained and unwarranted hate feast Labour will be on 45% come election time. The Greens consistency will bring on home the victory.
It’s a pity that a parallel example could not be run showing National /Act in charge over the past 4 years demonstrating how they would have fixed the housing crisis, (created by them), and how they would have managed the Covid crisis.. that would be an interesting watch.
An interesting exercise would be to take all the press/media statements/ criticisms made by Nat/Act over that period of time, run the algorithms on those statements to see what the ramifications would have been and then make it into a movie.
Then just play the movie on high rotate during next year’s election campaign.. game over for National!!
Yes Grant and Labours brilliant policies will bear the fruits for everyone to enjoy.
However I’d be eager to hear Nacts alternative or are we going to hear that tired old line about showing your hand too early.
Seymour has shown insight into his policies which will set Epsom adrift from the rest of the world akin to Planet Key where there are no toilet cleaners.
The only line you’ll hear Bert is the tax cut line and how National are better managers of the economy which statistics show is patently incorrect…
The same tired old lines trotted out be every time…Nat/ Act = no imagination.
I am really impressed by peoples views on the outcome of on election when?
“A week is a long time in politics.”
Next year is upon us. Maybe we should start to fret about november 2033 closer to that date.
“a week is a long time in politics”. Harold Wilson.
size of sample and geographic distribution of sample? because I’ll tell you something free gratis and for nothing asking 100 people at the govt end of lambton quay would get a different result to the same questions in northland or the south island….polls are just todays paid for press release, the political equivalent of ‘advertorials’
Frankie where are you?
When the EU bails on the US invasion of Russia in the northern hemispheres winter, November onwards.
These last 20 polls will mean shit!
It’ll be who chooses to go to War and who chooses not to go to War.
That will be interesting!