Attacking defended positions is a costly proposition. The defender has many advantages and the attacker normally suffers high casualties. Over the last six weeks, Russian forces have been thrown into a series of manoeuvres and attacks on Severodonetsk, including a tough fight north from Popasna and attempting to cross the Severskyi-Donets River. Unable to outflank and encircle the city the Russians attacked Severodonetsk ‘head on’. Even with massed artillery fire the city held against a series of Russian attacks that were driven back by the Ukrainians. At the completion of the defensive battle, the Ukrainians were able to execute a withdrawal without being routed or pursued.
Some points to note are that the Ukrainian withdrawal was almost finished before being reported in the media, another example of the Ukraine’s dominance of the information war. Further, the Russians did not pursue and destroy the retreating Ukrainians. Most likely because Lysychansk provided a firm base to support the withdrawal. When armies retreat, they aim to have ‘one foot on the ground’, making sure that each group moving is supported by coordinated fire from a static group or groups. Sitting on high ground on the south flank of the withdrawal route Lysychansk provided a firm base against Russian attacks from that direction while the Severskyi-Donets River protected the north flank.
The current situation is that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn successfully and a new defensive line is established running from Sloviansk in the north, east to Siversk and south to Bhakmut. This creates a roughly equilateral triangle with each of these three points about 25 kilometres apart, the M03 highway forms the western base of the triangle. The media is discussing the M03 being a key Russian objective because it is useful logistics, and it is. However, I see a road that artillery can use to support the next phase of the defensive battle. Modern artillery battles are highly mobile. Artillery systems generally staying hidden to avoid counter battery fire then when required move forwards to fire, ‘shooting and scooting’ before the enemy can return fire. Fighting this way is easier when you have a large road behind your frontline for the artillery to move on and to be supplied from.
Breaking down this battle and considering it carefully it is clear that the Ukrainians are using their resources and ground in tactically sensible way. The Russians are not. Attacking defended cities ‘head on’ is a costly way to fight, even with lots of artillery in support. The Ukrainians that were fighting in Severondonetsk and Lysychansk probably withdrew through an established defensive line and will be resting and reconstituting near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. It seems that as the Russians advance west their artillery dominance will be challenged by the increasing amount of modern longer ranged and more accurate artillery arriving from NATO countries.
Successful generals manage the ‘tempo’ of battle and at this point there is a natural lull and the Russians need to decide if they rest and regroup or if they push forwards. The decision that they make will tell us a great deal about how the war is being run.
If the Russians pause, they can regroup, consolidate their logistics and perhaps develop a reserve for offensive operations. This could allow a change in the axis of advance perhaps using the more open country and better weather to bypass Ukrainian defensive positions. This option is a pragmatic option and reflects the tactical reality, that an advance on the current axes of advance will be faced with stiff opposition.
The second option is to push forwards. This option is less pragmatic. The Ukrainians are clearly not routed and being pursued, instead they are withdrawing at their own pace and in what looks like a planned operation to draw Russian forces into another defensive battle. The aim of which will be too further attrit the Russians, with the Ukrainians fighting from prepared positions and starting to benefit from the arrival of new artillery so this will be a tough option.
It will be interesting to see if Putin’s ego and disconnection from frontline reality will win the debate or whether frontline commanders will convince him to accept the tactical reality. Russian military blogger Igor Girkin, an ex-army officer with about 400,000 followers on Russian social media is aware of the danger recently commenting that “the Ukrainian defence of Lysychansk was deliberately designed to inflict maximum damage on Russian troops and burn through Russian manpower and equipment” and suggesting that “accepting battle on the Ukrainian’s terms was a significant misstep by the Russian leadership”. Girkin is correct and if the Russians push forwards at this time the results are likely to be a long, slow slog towards Sloviansk that will burn away resources and kill lots of young Russian soldiers.
Further, if the Ukrainians are generating enough force for a counter attack then by advancing too soon and staying engaged the Russians commit to battle in one area and are more easily outflanked. A large Ukrainian counter attack could outflank the Russian main force and hit troops tired and depleted after six weeks of tough fighting. Essentially, this seems like a good time for the Russians to pause, consolidate and re-evaluate. It does not seem to be good tactics to advance straight from one tough defensive battle straight into another one ‘head on’. It appears to be a decision made by a politician, far removed from the battlefield thinking of their legacy rather than the tactical reality ‘on the ground’.
In summary, if the Russians do push forwards immediately then we will know that their decisions are being driven by political considerations rather than by smart tactics. This is important information that helps us to better understand Russian decision-making. A feature of this conflict to-date is the commitment of Russian forces to operations that are not tactically sound and it demonstrates a key Russian weakness.
However, it has important strategic implications the most important of which is that it confirms that this war is being fought for highly emotive and political reasons and that Russian military professionals do not have significant influence on planning. Essentially, this is one man’s war and Ukraine; NATO and its supporters need be prepared for it to continue until the Putin is defeated. The only way to defeat Putin, is for the Ukrainians to drive the Russian army out of their country. Essentially, Russia will keep fighting until it is militarily impossible for them to continue and they are driven back because their decisions are not made based on logic and reason but rather on ego.
Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.
Whatever Ben? More Putin sour grapes?
Here’s How Zelensky Can Still Win
‘Ukraine’s successful…withdrawal’!…. 😉
None so blind. 100% wrong to date, thats consistent.
advancing in a rearward direction and consolodating positions.. will be the next battle cry from the MSM
Ben Morgan must be smelling his own farts, he’s full of crap! Utter BS & lies!
Ukraine will win this war and get all of its invaded territory back this as sure as night following day. The filth Russians have concentrated the bulk of their second biggest army in the world in a line no longer than 80 kilometres. Even then they have only advanced a few km and have won a plot of rubble. The Ukrainians retreated in good order.
I bet the commie filth/scum Russian supporters on here go quiet when Kherson province is take back. Some of these filth/scum would have doubted Britain winning the war in 1940 but look how that turned out.
Shame your comments attacking others is based on pure hatred, without offering any insight. Perhaps an intelligent post stating facts to illustrate your paranoia would be more helpful. Just saying.
Britain didn’t win the war – Russia did. Russia fought off two thirds of the German war machine, the rest of the world only faced one third. And that war, WWII, which saw Russia lose over 20 million lives, this is still fresh in the minds of Russians, hence why denazification is a goal of Russia’s special operation in the Ukraine.
Russia was a German ally in 194o Ivan.
And the Soviets only won against their former ally Nazi Germany due to massive donations of war material from the USA and Britain (and while the USA and Britain were also fighting concurrently in other theatres like the Pacific) . also de-Nazification didn’t look to be a corncern for the Soviets when they were working in concert with Germany invading Poland.
As you said – we all know how the war turned out … and as I said – Britain didn’t win the war – Russia did.
Irrelevant, ted. That all changed in 1941, and by 1945 Russia had taken more like 80% of Hitler’s war effort. More like four fifths than just one third. Try to argue honestly, please.
as was poland in 1939 ted-fritz, your point being?
A lot of those 20 million can be attributed to Stalin’s megalomania:
1. Before the Germans attacked he’d already shot a large portion of his officer corps
2. His refusal to believe his own officers before the invasion began meant that the Russian airforce was not dispersed thus easy pickings on the ground for the Luftwaffe.
3. Many in the Red Army were shot in the back by NKVD when hesitant to advance, or were forced into battle unarmed: Just cannon fodder.
4. Just as Ben says in his article, the tempo of the Russian counterattack was often politically driven, squandering millions of soldiers in human wave frontal attacks.
It seems little has changed
lol you seem very mad. Care for a wager on your imaginary victim of the Zelensky regime?
Tuis. Guessed you missed the Satellite images of Russia having another 100,000 special forces amassed
18km from Ukraine’s borders. Shhh we don’t want the “MSM not reporting it….
Another idiot smelling his own farts? Russia is winning, the West is collapsing & no amount of your nonsense will change the reality of that!
Chill tf out. Russia ain’t communist no more dude. Why don’t you go and volunteer over there if you hate Russia so much?
To Me, this whole war is a murky cloud. I think 95% of us are wondering WTF is really going on here?
Too much misinformation and smoke screens fuelled by manipulators making a buck out of sewing theories. Time once was, an intelligent person could read widely and suss out the truth and be pretty close to sure of the real agenda but this one is a real mystery.
Bottom line for me, nothing really justifies invading another country and blowing its people and cities to hell.
Like the bottom line Fantail. Good call. Trouble is a number of posters on this site only share that view when laying into the west (which is not unjustified) It’s somehow ok when f’wit Putin does it.
Yeah make a lot of sensible comments then…..
Your last line is basically a precis of anti-Russian propaganda about the war as if someone else wrote the rest of the post entirely.
Probably another bad take on Biden and Boris, globalist bros proxy war. Sacrificing Ukrainians to the war machine.
Russia is dying, the people are waking up and Putin will go missing soon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RoxVKE5Asc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGUF-RFIhkw&t=5s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p163HRZQpb8
Yes its going to happen soon.
NATO’s ego is the cause of this…
NATO got nothing to do with this war.
NATO has EVERYTHING to do with this conflict…NATO has been throwing its weight around with Russia, Russia requested this to stop, NATO tried to encourage Ukraine NATO membership…funny enough, the USSR requested NATO membership in the 1950s…NATO rejected the request…hence the Warsaw Pact…
Righto Ivan.
No REAL arguments against this tedheath except for name calling?
Its quite disturbing pro Putin and pro Russia scum are to be found in New Zealand, bit of worry for sure.
It’s the tin foil Naki crew. Too much inbreeding I am afraid.
lol
— so, tedheath, you support the pro Nazi Ukraine scum…
‘tedheath’- interesting that he names himself after a pederast- is obviously a fan of Operation Gladio, the NATO operation to murder thousands of Italians to stop the communist party from democratically coming to power.
Well, I decided to check out Operation Gladio having killed thousands of Italians. A wild exaggeration. Yes, Operation Gladio did exist. No, it didn’t kill thousand of Italians.
It has about the same veracity as saying the Ukrainian government is dominated by Nazis.
And John White Litvinenko was assassinated when he spread the news that Putin is a paedophile. He also put up evidence.
Murdering Communists is fine.
Shutup you idiot. There are more Nazis in Moscow than the whole of Ukraine.
Total fuckwit comment Blert — read a history book about WW2 — if you can read.
Well tedheath I’m pro Russia but anti Putin but the Nazi/Bolsheviks on this blog cannot understand this subtlety. And you are right – they are scum. Have any of them actually been to Russia or Ukraine? I suspect not.
Cantabrian: If you want to be thought subtle, try not to write like a simpleton.
Let me guess “Putin is a Communist loving authoritarian Dictator” who orders the deaths of his opposition.
Alexi Navalny the founder of the “Anti corruption foundation” is in prison for embezzling funds from a Western company, OH the irony!
Communist? the Main opposition party is the Communist party which Putin is NOT the leader off. There’s a clue.
No evidence has ever been presented Putin ordered anything.
Here’s the kicker. Germany invaded Poland in WW2 because of the Ethnic slaughter of over 100,000 Germans there.
Over 90% of people assume the “internet” is the Universe, failing to realize there is such a thing as the
“Dark web” we have been conditioned to believe it is a dark scary place full of Gangsters and that is true to some extent. However, due to the dark web not being indexed there you will find a treasure trove of information. There you will find the true history in government reports still to see the light of day by the Plebes.
finngrinn there is no opposition in Russia. It is a virtual opposition and the members of the Duma are drawn from ex FSB agents like Livinenko’s poisoner Lugovoi. They are called the siloviki. Sure Lenin never assassinated Tsar Nicholas II but a line of command can be drawn to him. Similarly Stalin had Kirov killed. The FSB still venerates Bolshevism Putin included. The whistleblowers are taken out. Fingrinn you are so naive.
Bizarre how even reputable Western sources still have Putin enjoying 83% approval. I can only put that down to the will of the People.
Finngrin people don’t answer honestly in a repressive state with an FSB thug on every corner.
no fin the largely manufactured massacres of germans was a pretext for ‘drang nacht ost’ see glewitz…now if you wanna talk germans getting the shitty end of the stick talk 1945 polish ethnic cleansing of germans
Comment to Blert and tedheath in particular:
When you fill your comments with dumb words like filth and scum, you simply show the lamentable state of your own mental condition.
Keep writing rubbish like that and people will learn not to bother replying.
In Vino those guys are outraged because people on this site are supporting a blood thirsty dictator who is killing as we speak. My many Ukrainian friends are having their relatives and friends killed every day. It may be a hypothetical exercise for you and your old Bolsheviks/Nazi friends but real people are dying.
Our hearts weep for your Azov buddies.
Russian invaders are filth and scum to most decent people on this planet Boris.
You should pay attention and recognize that Asians and Africans are people too, guy who named himself after a pederast.
Given the extent of censorship on this site – so many comments and ideas blocked –
You could spend a day writing responses to the diminished and racist diatribe exposed above and never get it posted.
Not worth it.