Tauranga By-election: WInners, Losers & Predictions

A white loaf of National - hilariously all 4 National Party Tauranga candidates turned up at a photo shoot independently all wearing the same thing

Surprise surprise, the National backed Banker won a seat so blue people refer to the Tauranga electorate as ‘The Smurf’s Bum’.

While there was never any real question National would win, (you could put a 3 legged blind seeing eye dog up as the National Candidate and they would still win Tauranga) the type of win speaks volumes for the 2023 election.

There are of course winners and losers



ACT – They went from 4% in 2020 to 10% in this by-election with a low turn out. That’s an astounding leap for them and points to a dynamic TDB has been harping on about for some time, and that is that ACT’s popularity speaks to a deep polarisation in NZ politics that will erupt at the next election. Taking 10% in an electorate as Blue as Tauranga is a powerful boost for ACT and suggests a 2023 result that will be 10%+.

Dumb Lives Matter – We like to ignore the smelly Lumpenproletariat Parliament Lawn protestors because they make us feel bad on the Left for reminding us that despite an unprecedented MMP majority, we still can’t be transformational enough to reduce the economic anxiety driving the Dumb Lives Matter movement. Sue Gray came out of this with about 5%, so let’s hope that feral movement never obtains an effective leader or they are going to gain political representation in 2023.

Tough on crime rhetoric: The farce of the debate over crime was so eye rolling with every candidate promising some dreadful new law to punish gang members, it may have been tough on crime but it was also soft on facts. Expect this dumb debate to be replicated in the 2023 election.


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Labour – They were never going to win this, so it’s more a technical loss than a real one. They had genuine support in 2020, which has evaporated as the economic ramifications of combating Covid have soured the electorate. This should force a strategic and tactical rethink inside the Labour Party war room, they can’t rely on saving the country from a once in a century pandemic because the electorate is gone ‘what-have-you-done-for-me-lately-bitch’.

Māori Party – Their cowardly decision to not run because the electorate was ‘too racist’  would shame the Māori Battalion who fought for their right to vote and be included. The electorate that had previously sent two Māori to Parliament? That electorate? That’s too racist? Maybe you’re too easily triggered and can’t leave the house without holding your mums hand? That John Tamihere has now taken over as President of the Māori Party is the best thing to happen to the Māori Party and the Political Left.

Green Party – No where to be seen.



Watch for the rise of ACT as Left wing male voters continue to be ostracised by woke left activists to leave the movement because they have a heteronormative white cis penis and the rise of ‘other’ as the political spectrum starts to splinter. National can win with a fake smile and faux concern no matter how stupid their policy is and that should genuinely concern people no matter what side you vote for.

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  1. Martyn I think you overlook the impact of the Governments decision to remove Tauranga’s voters ability to partipate in Local Government Elections this year with the extension of their unelected commissioners.

    Any support that may have been gain early from their appointment has evaporated in the face of worsening traffic, rubbish collections, the decision to spend millions on vanity projects while selling council assets to the government at below valuation.

  2. A rainy day meant there was less interest than usual for a by-election. National at 50% was par for the course in the current climate.

    People are ignoring that the demographic ls of this electorate have changed therefore for the Left to be competitive in 2023 they need to jag at least 35% of the vote possibly 40%.

    The loser here is Labour – in this electorate at least the stickyness of voters from National to Labour has gone 100%. So all the effort and back to square one and probably gone for another 2 decades.

  3. The absence of the Greens and TMP would have surely bolstered the Labour and alternative vote so an even worse result for the red team than the mere figures indicate. Not far off 70% (66.7%) for the centre right is a big fat smack in the face for Labour’s delusions.

    That Jacinda couldn’t even be bothered to support her candidate with a visit hasn’t helped this result or engendered any loyalty from her colleagues. I suspect there’s some pretty worried and disgusted Labour politicians right now. Could a coup be far away.

  4. Nobody has mentioned the thought that the NZ First vote probably went to Act.
    This would probably more than double Acts share of the votes on the day.

  5. With 27 individual spy agencies to call on.
    Nobody in NZ should be concerned for their safety!?

    Or should they?


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