The Chinese Ambassador to New Zealand has warned against a “democracies versus autocracies” view of the world and that countries grouping up into “exclusive circles” could be a “dangerous slippery slope to unmitigated disasters”.
The problem in NZ is that we can’t debate China’s influence.
National is little more than a front for Chinese business interests and on the Left any criticism of China is labeled xenophobic.
Between these two points, a National Party paid for by China and a Left who claim any criticism of China is racist, China has managed to gain enormous power in NZ by economically owning us, having a huge diaspora living here and gaining access to bottling our water.
As the Cold War between China and America heats up, China is actively attempting to encroach into the South Pacific by establishing ‘fishing’ ports and using a fishing militia to push other fishing boats off others fishing grounds.
To date NZ has managed to keep out of any direct confrontation with China because China the National Party did everything in their decade of power to bend over backwards to China.
Key put all our cows in one Beijing paddock off the back of Helen’s free trade deal, and we’ve been trapped ever since.
The fact there was an alleged Chinese spy inside the National Party caucus highlights how compromised National had become.
With their investment in National wasted, soft power turns to hard force very quickly.
China could ‘poke out our eyes’ in 3 ways.
Economically – They could strangle off exports and hurt the economy.
Militarily – They could shoot down an American satellite launched by RocketLabs from a submarine off the East Coast.
Domestically – We know Chinese newspaper editors in NZ all take their editorial stance directly from the Chinese Government and calling for mass demonstrations against the Government for whatever perceived insult would cause enormous upheaval that could easily spill into something ugly.
NZ-Asians face the most overt racism in NZ, there is a huge tension beneath the mild surface of NZ society, and we aren’t prepared for if it ruptures from geopolitical tensions.
We must be a voice for peace and the champion for International co-operation and respect for the rule of law because conflict will create social reverberations we are not ready for. However, as a liberal progressive Democracy, we also have an obligation to speak out against China’s human rights abuses and if that costs us trade, then that is the price we pay to be a good global citizen.
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His Evilness, Emperor Xi, has a grand vision for a new world order . And it looks suspiciously similar to the inside of a concentration camp.
“Economically – They could strangle off exports and hurt the economy.”
NZ needs to find other markets for exports. For example agriculture and dairy should be able to pivot away from China given that food and fertilizer will be disrupted globally over the next few years and there will be many other countries in need. A small contribution but it could be a defining humanitarian role for NZ this decade.
“Militarily – They could shoot down an American satellite launched by RocketLabs from a submarine off the East Coast.”
Unlikely as that would risk military escalation with the US (yes a huge double standard, I’m not making a moral comment). It’s doubtful China will be a conventional threat to NZ so long as the US has an interest in keeping China out the South Pacific. Cyber and soft power conflict is a different matter.
“Domestically – We know Chinese newspaper editors in NZ all take their editorial stance directly from the Chinese Government”
China has a significant amount of soft power influence in NZ and Australia and an ability to push our culture war buttons to play victim and deter criticism. There is also active intimidation by the CCP of dissent such as that faced by their overseas student community. We should be doing more to protect Chinese citizens here from CCP agents and activists instead of enabling them.
“NZ-Asians face the most overt racism in NZ”
Yes often from other Asians, animosities are alive and well between Mainland vs HK, Chinese vs Japanese, Japanese vs Koreans. Asians are no more a monolith or harmonious than Europeans are.
I’ve mentioned before China’s meteoric rise has been built on globalisation. Think of it as a US bribe to form a coalition against the USSR. That system is going away to be replaced by closed networks of trading nations.
About 80% of China’s energy is imported, about 80% of that comes from the Persian Gulf, the Chinese Navy does not have the capability to secure it’s maritime shipping in a face-off against US/NATO. The infrastructure does not exist to pipe the required volumes of oil and gas from Russia and China already has rolling blackouts. Imagine what happens with a US maritime blockade in the Persian Gulf, Indian Ocean or Strait of Malacca.
The Chinese Navy has the most ships of any Navy BUT by range, tonnage and capability is still dwarfed by the US and it cannot operate in a conflict zone without land based air cover. In Asia alone it is only about 30% of the tonnage and military allies are thin on the ground. While China is a threat to Taiwan, it’s ability to project force into the open ocean is debatable.
The one child policy (and consequent female infant genocide) means China has the fastest ageing population with the biggest male/female imbalance in the world. With an average age in the mid-40s that means an increasing number of retirees compared to taxpayers. Yes the CCP allows three kids now but most of the urban middle class cannot afford to raise more than one even if they wanted to.
Even if every woman had three children tomorrow it would take 18-25 years of ‘investment’ to make a difference.
The property ponzi scheme is collapsing and property is the biggest single investment of middle class Chinese, typically using intergeneration wealth. A huge piece of this will be wiped out.
There has been a 12-fold wage growth so China is no longer the worlds low-cost, low-value-added manufacturer, this is compounded by rolling lockdowns. Many foreign companies are now exiting China for places like Vietnam. Some manufacturing can even be done more cheaply now in the US and Mexico (less sunk infrastructure costs) and the US is re-industrialising at the fastest rate in it’s history.
The CCP’s rhetoric increasingly has a cultural revolution 2.0 flavour. “poke the eyes” is standard language of ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy. There is active blaming of foreigners for everything by offical outlets and jaw dropping racism especially towards Americans and Japanese. It appears the CCP seeks to maintain power through ideology based on Han ethno nationalism. An obvious ploy when you can no longer claim legitimacy by guaranteeing an improving quality of life.
China’s success is due to Deng’s reforms and globalisation (a US facilitated system). The US is in the process of pulling the rug out from under globalisation and Xi has very different beliefs form Deng.
China does not have the military capability to face off against US/NATO outside of the first island chain so has limited ability to project hard power or secure resources should the Great Power Game shift emphasis from business and diplomacy to militarisation and containment. In the meantime Xi and the CCP will have to work hard to retain their power domestically. IMO on the current trajectory, unless China can plug into a secure energy supply, it will suffer stagnation that will dwarf Japan’s and more than likely endure de-industrialization every bit as meteoric as the process of industralisation in the second half of the 20th Century.
Unless the US implodes into disfunction such as civil war or the CCP is overthrown, worry about conflict and resource grabs by a China in decline and collapse rather than a new regional overlord.
Great commentary Tui.
Nonsense.
No decent human being would cooperate with Americans, who have slaughtered tens of millions of people in the last century alone. As long as ‘our’ government betrays the interests of the human race, I welcome China taking steps to defend itself.
@John White – “who have slaughtered tens of millions of people in the last century alone.”
Agreed and conservative estimates of Chinese killed by the CCP or downstream effects of CCP polices are about 45 million (it could be much higher). For example 30 million fewer female infants as a consequence of the one child policy alone. We can argue relative body count but it seems the main difference is China excels at killing it’s own citizens instead other nationalities. Given the example of Tibet it could be they have simply lacked the opportunity.
“No decent human being would cooperate with Americans”
The US and allies do not have a glowing human rights record but this is not good vs evil, this is power politics. If you had to choose between China and the US and ‘none of the above’ was NOT an option, what would you choose?
“Agreed and conservative estimates of Chinese killed by the CCP or downstream effects of CCP polices are about 45 million (it could be much higher)”
Actually that is simply bullshit. Look at the massive growth in life expectancy under the CPC for one, ever since 1949. The 45 million is a number cooked out of thin air by anti-communist hack writers
@Mark “The 45 million is a number cooked out of thin air by anti-communist hack writers”
That would be hack anti-communist writers like Chinese academics from Chinese universities, Chinese media and China’s own National Bureau of Statistics who quote death rates above 20 million for the Great Chinese Famine alone or Chen Yizi (adviser to the CCP General Secretary) who quoted 43 million for the same period, not the only period of ‘ideological excesses’ such as the later Cultural Revolution.
Your ‘anti-communist hack writers’ compound numbers ranging from about 75 to nearer 100 million which is why I quote a conservative value.
“Excess deaths” is not the same as ‘killed’ etc. Otherwise all countries could be accused of same, if you apply the same methodology as that applied to China.
For example the fall of the Soviet Union is estimated to have caused up to 7 million excess deaths –are those deaths counted against capitalism?
You’ll note my original reply said
“estimates of Chinese killed by the CCP OR DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS OF CCP POLICIES”
“the fall of the Soviet Union is estimated to have caused up to 7 million excess deaths –are those deaths counted against capitalism?”
For the deaths attributable to the reforms thrust upon Russia rather that just the collapse of the USSR yes. If ‘reforms’ cause death by violence (especially political violence), starvation, loss of access to clean water and medicines, deaths of despair etc, then in my book yes they can be counted. As can foreign policy misadventures and resource wars.
You seem to mistake my criticism of the CCP for praise of neoliberalism.
No one mentioned life expectancy
10s of millions is an estimate made by many historians it seems
The US, and I’m not anti-communist
kids who are never born can’t be murdered…and frankly we can’t point fingers in terms of the national sport being killing kids..can we?
We’re not just talking abortion, sadly a large part of the 30 million can be assumed to have been born. If you don’t have access to ultrasound etc (poorer families or outside of population centres) you don’t know sex till birth. Female infants were often abandoned or killed especially in rural areas. The CCP introduced an exception in the 80s where families could have a second child if their first one was a girl. It’s debatable how much of a counterbalance that was as many families would not want to take the risk of being “stuck” with a girl should the second child be a girl too.
NZ-Asians face the most overt racism in NZ – rubbish!!!!
All statistic show that NZ Asians are the least likely group to be victims of crime in NZ and it is woke echo chambers that seem to be trying to label every incident against Asians as racism.
it is laughable that each month we have another media AsianGATE incident when an Asian ‘victim’ is crying extreme racism because they were labeled Aisan on a coffee receipt or can’t get a refund at a store. This always makes front page news.
Meanwhile a lot of people are victims of gun crimes which seem daily.
Check the police reports – the people who are the biggest victims of crime tend to be Maori and Pacific Islanders on low incomes.
Meanwhile Asians make up the higher income members of NZ society and are thus less likely to be a victim of crime.
The race propaganda is to Gerrymander Auckland and NZ to be an Asian city not Pacific Island or Maori/English (as part of the treaty).
This has been planned for quite a while by the woke/neoliberal leaders as woke set out to create Auckland as being an Asian city from more than a decade ago with donations and mistresses in tow as they want a low wage economy without a welfare system and seeking to destroy it.
“Mayor Len Brown’s Auckland is predicted to have a majority Asian, largely Chinese, population by 2040, with the existing long standing European ethnic and cultural base becoming a minority. This means that a very large percentage of Auckland’s projected 2.1 million population will have a short working history in this country with low associated tax and Kiwisaver contributions, and a rapidly escalating number of older people moving onto New Zealand Superannuation with no contribution coming from their original home countries.”
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1110/S00572/grey-power-warns-of-impact-of-high-immigration-rates.htm
How is that working out for Auckland? Been there lately it is no longer a nice place to be, especially in the city centre – ethnic gerrymandering from woke and neoliberals, does not make a vibrant city or economy.
Kate Hawkesby: Welcome to Auckland, city of crime and opportunists
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/early-edition/opinion/kate-hawkesby-welcome-to-auckland-city-of-crime-and-opportunists/?fbclid=IwAR29dV_fnImEPSnmRLxYZnXlfilh1J_XEzhBGfUIIcuZ3EPEaAkA8oQvyxk
Not only are Asians least likely to victims of crime, they are also far less likely to be perpetrators of crime than other New Zealanders.
https://www.nbr.co.nz/in-praise-of-asian-migrants-how-crime-rates-compare/
In fact it is pretty much the same all over the Western world, Asians commit crime about 1/4 the white rate.
So your blaming Asians for crime in Auckland etc is simply laughable
You have to remember is that ‘indian’ subcontinent type people (forgive me I cant think of the correct term) are also Asian and these do tend to bear the brunt of a lot of racism and also violence via small businesses especially in Auckland.
one of the first kiwi phrases I heard was ‘bloody asian drivers’
juzzz sayin loike
“New Zealand is one of the most wasteful countries in the OECD. Waste is not only a pollutant but the dead end of a linear supply chain that emits greenhouse gases at every step along the way.
Roughly half of global emissions come from producing and consuming stuff. Every bit of waste represents embodied emissions lost to the economy.”
https://theconversation.com/nzs-government-plans-to-switch-to-a-circular-economy-to-cut-waste-and-emissions-but-its-going-around-in-the-wrong-circles-170704?
Our imports from China prior to Covid, almost matched our exports to China but we are sending off NZ produced milk and meat (much of these NZ assets are now significantly Chinese owned such as sliver Fern farms, convita, many NZ dairy farms) and we are getting back clothes and plastic goods from China that eventually end up into landfill. (China owns NZ waste management) .
Not sure that we are winning by the deals with China and it certainly seems to be making many in NZ poorer and increasing the brain drain as our economy is stuck in plentiful lazy construction, tourism and commodity jobs and products and not high value jobs and products.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-authorities-hate-against-taiwanese-led-to-church-attack/7Y5NJMOP5WWEVCNNX435JULXII/
This news was easy to find internationally, but not in NZ. You can’t even search for the above article on the Herald website (using their search). I don’t even think it made it onto the front page. Same with Stuff. And I never saw any mention of it on NZ tv news
You’re scabrous in your first two or three paragraphs. Sensational but not perfectly true. There are subtilties. Why my cousin got out of journalism, later to serve in our covid response, forcing mental folk to do the right thing.
Since by definition we on the Left don’t get any money, our best truth is our (low light) guiding star.
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