BREAKING: New TV3 Poll – National soar, Labour crash – Māori Party are the Queen/King makers


LABOUR: 38.2% 


ACT: 6.4%

GREENS: 8.4%



National finally overtake Labour in one of the main polls.

The Cost of Living crisis, Labour’s refusal to do anything meaningful on housing, mental health and poverty have all combined to eclipse saving us from Covid.

TDB Recommends

The Greens have failed to make any political traction despite Labour’s self inflicted hot mess and ACT have been deflated.

Luxon’s luck continues to hold and despite his total lack of real leadership and his inability to answer basic questions,

Preferred PM stats shows how lucky Luxon is.

Jacinda – 36.3

Luxon – 23.9%

Luxon shouldn’t be anywhere near the 20s in terms of support, his total lack of ability is obvious but voters have become so polarised against Jacinda they would elect a polished turd and call it a sparkly chocolate bar.

Labour are losing support because they can’t betray neoliberal economic settings to help their supporters and the Greens have become so fixated on their own woke dogma they’ve disappeared up their own arseholes.

As TDB has been pointing out for most of this year, that leaves the Māori Party as the Queen/King makers and as we’ve pointed out, this is problematic because the Māori Party are flakey as fuck.

The Greens and the Māori Party need to sit down as TDB has suggested several times and work out bottom lines for Labour because Labour can’t be trusted to come up with them on their own.

The question now is how insane will tribal Labour and woke Green become now their parties are losing. When they had large majorities, we saw that the woke left wanted to use that power to punish and hurt everyone who disagreed with their dogma, now they are losing will they manage to drop the aggressive pronouns and militant te reo pronunciation correction and focus on providing universal well funded services that reduce the cost of living OR will they scream TRANSPHOBIC RACIST MISOGYNISTS at every one on Twitter and Facebook?

I think we know what they will become.

One of the reasons why I think Labour and the Greens have lost so much support is because their supporters are nasty spiteful clowns and via proxification, people end up hating them and by proxy, the Labour and Green parties.

At no time are Left woke activists asking, ‘am I the baddie’?

The Right look for recruits, the Left look for traitors.

Social media has made this far worse.


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  1. Rawiri was on Newshub tonight saying the Maori party will not work with ACT. So it’s Labour/Greens/Maori vs National/Act with potential Peters back to spoil. Labour has no chance if the electorate realizes they need the Maori party and Greens. Middle NZ finds both parties toxic imo.

    • So who is middle NZ ?are you saying Maori aren’t part of your middle NZ cause at the last election most of the Maori voting block gave National the middle finger not their vote.

  2. I’m left on a lot of things and right on somethings. With the business party fully represented I ask where is the party for the average kiwi voter?

      • For most of New Zealand’s history tribalism both old and new reigned supreme. It always represents the majority of all its diverse tribes by providing a prosperous and calm centre to the chaotic storm. But not a century goes by within Te Ao Maori without some great calamity, crises or invasion.

        There has been civil war, ancient religious rivalry and even imperial invaders all of whom threatened to destroy everything that hundreds of thousands of Maori toiled for hundreds of years to build. Yet somehow against all odds the centre has always held. Sure great rivals like Waikato and The Crown has brought Maori to its knees and the settler and central government has even been able to take control.

        But in the long-run Maori always come back.

        • Maori never invented the wheel or steel or alcohol. There wasn’t anything built to “tear down”

          • Navigation by the stars before you clowns ventured beyond your coasts!

            Harvesting technics before you clowns could grow your own!

            Trench Warfare you clowns stole from us!

            Waka that could traverse Oceans before you clown could build a boat.

            So fuck off hillbilly!

            • sorry danny but ‘maori invented trench warfare’ was a lie told by a historian who had an axe to grind

              the use of earthworks is as old as time.

              • Yeah but that would mean that Maori would have traded with Europe of the middle east and there’s nothing in the archeological records that would suggest that otherwise the likes of Hobson Please or those Pakeha conspiracy theories theorists would have dug it up already. I mean credit where credit is due. We taught the British many lessons in return for few lessons that could be cashed in

          • @ Charles Peterson. You’re letting your racist ignorant little panties show dear but your stupidity! Omg ! You’re waving that about like an American waves the stars and stripes.

        • Remember Sam our colonisers tried there best to wipe us (Maori) out but mother England was running out of money with bigger land acquisitions overseas so they used the pen to fuck over Maori passing a barrage of racist and discriminative divide and conquer laws like the Rebellious Act to get their filthy hands on our land.

          • Covid is pa. Just for once, just for once, it would have been rather nice if you had not despoiled Sam’s thoughtful and evocative perspective with a time- expired rave and unnecessary distortion of history.

            • Whats a matter snow white don’t you like to hear the truth the only distortion of history is the lies, theft, discrimination and racism we have been living with in our own country for 182 years and it will continue unless people including myself stand up to people like you who are the distortion.

            • There is no distortion here. Why do you think the Maori chiefs appealed to Queen Victoria, actually went to see her in person. Why was land being sold by the New Zealand Land Company in Britain sight unseen and the land did not even belong to these people in the first place. I would call that fraud and theft not a distortion of history. New Zealand is a land of immigrants and children of immigrants who have absolutely no idea about New Zealand history because they weren’t taught it in school. Why does this happen ? well its because the colonial masters do not want the truth being told. The Brits did this all over the world its called the Commonwealth, they also did it to their own people in the industrial revolution the wealthy owned coal mines, cotton mills, shipyards now all gone at the whim of the Tory government because they were no longer profitable for the masters, whole towns left on the slag heap no jobs no self esteem and now generations of the disenfranchised from society, in NZ these people are called gangs. So lets have the truth about our past, the time for mollycoddling is over , then maybe there will be a better understanding between our indigenous Maori and us immigrants, only when this happens will we truly have a better society for all.

              • It could have been worse .NZ was going to be taken over by one of the European nations so would you rather have had the French or Germans as your masters .?

                • if it had been the germans or the belgians there would be no maori…ask the herero or the congolese.

                  interesting point the british didn’t invent the concentration camp but the colonial germans did for their extermination of the herero…1904

                • Trevor Sennitt. French could have been quite good. Much better cuisine, less dowdy women. Short men though, with Napoleon conscripting them all into his army and depleting the tall man gene pool. Ergo no rugby, no All Blacks, fewer brain damaged Kiwi blokes and one less career option for brawny blokes getting rich kicking balls around.

                  Problem with all the Scots and Irish who toiled so hard building this cold threshold land, is that they carried terrible burdens of oppression and hardship which may have damaged their collective psyche, and the damaging of the English goes right back to the Vikings. Read the brutal Highland clearances or the Irish famine, and the horrendous exploitations can haunt one’s mind forever more.

                  Germans are very cerebral and, outside of the eastern world, have produced a disproportionate number of great thinkers, philosophers, scientists, writers, wonderful operas, amazing sausages, but rather stodgy bread. With them, we could have been been a nation of brain boxes instead of rugby worshippers.

                  So, with due respect, the French or Germans weren’t necessarily any worse pioneers than the land of hope and glory, and all three arguably a kinder option than our current owners and future occupiers.

          • I think you’ll find most of the oppression was carried out by your fellow kiwis…london was a long way away.

  3. Im surprised that Labour are that high. Jenna and Toxic and their mates at Reid Research tried hard but in the end the death knell of this government is coming.

    Te Reo would have to bottle it to lose it from here

    • Are you sure? That would push Maori settlements money into the private sector. Not sure you’ve thought this “Te Reo would have to bottle it” all the way through.

      • Positive. By the time Christmas rolls around Labour will be lucky if their polling starts with a 3. By that stage we will likely be in economic stagflation and an unprecedented crime wave hitting our country. The sheeple will need someone to blame and it won’t be Te Reo.

        As people are realising it won’t be Labour Peters will go with if he gets back in.

        • Agree Frankie and if anything the polls reinforce that governments are voted out because as we know National offer nothing, Luxon is constantly having to be corrected and Rimmer is still a boy in a man’s pair of underpants.
          Nationals increased votes continues to leak votes from ACT. With the Maori party committing to never forming a government with ACT, National will need an increased vote count of which N.Z”s right wing media is doing a grand job.

          • Bertie – you know my views about Te Reo Luxon. He is sleepwalking to a landslide victory with a very average front bench. There better be some unearthed fucking talent in the backbenches. Otherwise it is the “shit versus crap” argument.

            Te Reo is following the grand strategy of doing and saying nothing of note to get the Treasury benches – it worked for the old coot and it looks like working for the world’s most boring man across the ditch as people are sick of Slowmo.

            The tide has gone out on the Blairite and like most one-trick ponies they struggle when people tire of their trick. Mark my words she’ll be lucky to see out the year. Her manufactured ego won’t be able to deal with a polling result in the 20s and an approval rate below Te Reo’s.

        • I don’t know if Luxon is catching up rather than its trendy to be woke.

          I mean anyone now a days can just jump on the list with out doing any work.

          But hey there’s still a short fall of 100,000 state homes. NZDF is funded for below government expectations. Orange children still get lake Alice’d.

          But hey how would you feel if your son wore a pink dress or how would you feel if Maori managed their own resources, y’know, the big issues.

  4. The other curveball is Te Pāti Māori needs to win a seat to stay in. Rawiri Waititi only won Waiariki by a very slime margin last time (circa 800 votes). Very interesting.

      • Umm no there is not. Once tourists see what Labour have done to Rotovegas they will avoid it like the plague. Otorohanga is a more attractive destination at the moment.

        • I’d O don’t know that then the tourist will know less. Rotorua is an iconic New Zealand destination. Can’t see that changing over a bit of inflation. The marketing for Rotorua has already been done y’know. Where is even Otorohanga?

    • The caveat there is he was up against Tamati Coffey, I mean Tamati Coffey!!!???

      How useless is Tamati where he was the only sitting Labour MP who lost their seat while others around the country surfed in on the We Love Jacinda popularity wave.

      If Labour were serious about Waiariki they would turf Tamati tomorrow, but then again he comes in handy to try to push through racist council laws.

      • I don’t want to take shots at you but you’reaking it easy. Times changes. Some how we need to create unity and culture so that New Zealands energy sector, communications and transport can be imprinted with the Reo Maori for the purposes of intellectual property and infringement fines.

        We will need Maori interests of we are to balance the interests of China and America cause we can’t compete otherwise.

        • Lol. That makes no sense. Tamati Coffey would be the worst performing MP in the house. Makes Maureen Pugh look like the international President of Mensa.

  5. Winston will be laughing all the way to the ballot box after Mallard gave him a golden oppetunity to grandstand on the trespass notice . He will play it for all it is worth . He has no friends in Labour and no real enemies in National so ever vote for Peters is one for National. Many who would vote Labour would not do so if they thought they would need the 2 white hating parties to keep power.

  6. That’s 15 polls. All indicate a rapid decline in support for virtue populism and vacuous leadership. Oh dear. What can one do?
    A. Resign now
    B. Call an early election
    C. Buy the poorest 40% of the population off.
    D. Have a party like it’s 19-90-9! With the rest of the Bazzooka Money!

    • If she had a brain she would be calling a snap election. Her polling isn’t going to improve and inflation is only going higher.

      • “If she had a brain…” Hmmm?

        We can only wait and see. The middle of winter? Low turnout? And a bribe might swing it. Or, and the announcement of another baby due! Will that work?

        • How many days is it from when you hand over a writ to the GG and then an election takes place? 57 days?

  7. Winston will be laughing all the way to the ballot box after Mallard gave him a golden oppetunity to grandstand on the trespass notice . He will play it for all it is worth . He has no friends in Labour and no real enemies in National so ever vote for Peters is one for National. Many who would vote Labour would not do so if they thought they would need the 2 white hating parties to keep power.

  8. Labour have quite simply failed to deliver on their major policies and with housing, defying belief, they’ve made it unspeakably worse. So many of societies problems stem from this stinking mess. Megan Woods cynical charade last week re-annoncing like for like state house replacements plus two thousand extra some time in the never never fell flat, not surprisingly. She knows the waiting list is now over 25000 and going up and up but hey, who cares?.No one’s listening anymore and tinkering their way to the next election ain’t going to cut it!

    Crime is ramping up, with Labour’s kindness to criminals playing a leading role to drive voters elsewhere. See if we can’t have double figure nightly ram raids, just to reinforce that point!

    Then there’s the hidden other unofficial agenda regarding Maori that seems to pop up more and more often lately. If it so good, get Willie out of the shadows to front foot it rather than reacting to it.

    But I don’t entirely blame them for inflation and thats hurting. We all know National would whip us with some mindless fiscal discipline just to rub salt into the wounds for the arousal factor.

    And the Greens are bleeding votes, logically, because their wokeness is an absolute repellent. Why any male would vote for them is a total mystery.

    Sadly, National are the same old shit but this government is making them look irresistible!

    • @Gagarin through this lens things make more sense.
      Ensure they can be wokely superior and righteous from the sidelines, without having to deliver on anything as the social, financial, trade and geopolitical storms wash over us.

      Giving too much credit?

  9. The Māori Party policy of a Nz Superannuation age of 57 for Māori, might be the dumbest ever election policy cruelling Labour’s chances.

    And as Labour needs the Māori Party, who wants that coalition as the government?

  10. Labour and Jacinda are only losing support due to the ever increasingly obvious mishandling of the Covid crisis. No masks. No mandates. No money. That is only way Labour can dig themselves from the hole they dug for themselves.

  11. Martyn
    Luxon will simply learn the job the same way Jacinda learnt it on the hoof. I think we have now entered that phase where voters will simply switch off to any Labour noise. Robertson’s grand stand budget will make no difference, no matter how much he spins it. And Jacinda’s spinning skills will make no difference, in fact they will just annoy people even more. People will go “Yeah, whatever”. I think Labour are done for 2023.

    • Nah Jacinda had a bit of a running start I mean her starpower was immediate.

      Men just aren’t wired to cry over watching some chick flick like The Titanic so Luxon will just have to do it his way. One of my biggest criticisms of Jacinda, John Key and Hellen Clark is how they had to wait for official advice before making the big decisions as if they needed mommy to hold there hand while they run the country.

      • It’s called shit scared of failure or unpopularity, sitting the fence and covering your arse. Typical of career councillor and career politician. What a legacy to have, ey? Oprah: “Jacinda, what did you actually achieve for New Zealand in your career that made a meaningful and lasting difference?” JA:”Well Oprah, I’ll wait for official advice and I’ll come back to you on that, but YES, ABSOLUTELY, and AGAIN, as I said all along WE STAND BY OUR DECISION and YES, AGAIN, as I said before…” (sound of Oprah and her audience nodding off…)…NZ audience switched off long ago…

    • Robertson’s budget will make no difference regardless as he’s fucking clueless economically.

      An adept politician perhaps, but a finance minster he most certainly is not

      • And the evidence behind this is?
        Next you’ll be saying Nicola Willis still in her napies is an astute financial advisor, ffs.

        • Agree Bert Nicola has gone all quiet and we know she is not quiet, is it because she is busy learning her new finance role something she also knows very little about.

      • well yeti with your command of ‘who fucks the economy’ your opinion on his ‘fitness’ ain’t worth a lot.

    • Petit Chou – I rarely agree with you, but “ we have now entered that phase where voters will simply switch off to any Labour noise”, is probably correct. For a moment, Mallard’s post-its were entertaining, but many of us do not want politics as entertainment. National’s inability to rustle up likeable leaders doesn’t augur well for them either, but the Purples are so much worse, the Maori Party an adolescent twosome, and it may be time to ditch them all.

      • Hahahaha I’ve been called many things but not a small shoe (I know I konw, it means my ‘little cabbage’). Yep GA, it’s all white noise from here on. To quote the Great Greta: Bla bla bla bla…(Jacinda comes in) and YES, AGAIN…as I said BEFORE…I will come back to you on that…and YES, AGAIN, as I said BEFORE….bla bla bla….never a straight fucking Yes or No out of our PM. The most transparent Govt ever. It’s all BULLSHIT!

  12. “Luxon’s luck continues to hold and despite his total lack of real leadership and his inability to answer basic questions”
    He doesn’t have to answer questions because he’s not in government. All he has to do is smile, nod and appear presidential and he will romp home.
    As for lack of leadership; really? He has the advantage of having run a major corporation so there is definitely leadership in the man. By comparison what have we got from Jacinda? Other than blather and division?

  13. Christopher Luxon has shown grace and patience with the way the country and the world are at the moment. Previous leaders of both major political parties have invariably been hotheaded type A personalities whereas this man’s placid personality shines through. He’s not afraid to tackle some of the heavy issues, although he is vague on details simply because he is new to the role.

    Jacinda Ardern, unfortunately, had a huge PR campaign behind her, massive popularity in her first term, but has failed to deliver by any stretch of the imagination. Her carefully put together veneer of congeniality and charm masked a tough communist with a horrific liberal agenda and yet, ultimately, no direction. The abortion laws enacted by her government, on an unsuspecting public, in the middle of a global pandemic, will undoubtedly have long term effects on the mothers, physically and emotionally; the wider community, including family members, friends, and couples who are wishing to adopt a child; and the effects on the unborn babies. The large scope of the legal framework behind these laws was, my understanding of it is, unprecedented in New Zealand legal history. Mounting a successful legal challenge against these new laws would be nigh on impossible, which is extraordinary unfair.

    In addition to this, the heavy issues of housing, health, education, and mental health have been discarded in favour of a temporary positive image of this country’s leader and her allies in parliament. That she is only seriously working on these initiatives now, after four years, is unacceptable.

  14. Martyn: “the Māori Party are flakey as fuck.” And the identity obsessed Greens?
    Waititi has again come out with his democracy is racist “caucasity” smear. Last time he blamed someone in his office for tutuing with his twitter. No one believed him of course but this latest outburst lacks even that dishonest attempt at contrition. Toxic AF.

    Mind you Willie Jackson’s not much better – he wants us to believe they’re not destroying democracy; just changing the definition. Seriously Willie?
    Even the possibility of an alliance between those two, Maori and Greens, is a serious problem for Labour’s already dismal re-election prospects.

  15. Labour and Greens were popular in the polls with their Covid response.

    Housing has been a mess for 15 years by both Labour and National and voters have become indifferent to housing for votes (possibly because 70% of Kiwis own their own house, most will leave their housing to their children, they are supposed to have state houses for the poor on low rents , so there are only a certain segment of woke elite (Green MP’s on $300k? per year but still renting) or those who don’t qualify for state housing in NZ who are being stirred up about housing. “it’s the boomers fault”.

    I feel angry about the wasteful housing of both governments but the timing of Labour’s loss of popularity relates more to their 3 waters, health and Hate speech laws, both centered around racial based policy in NZ.

    Maori themselves don’t seem to be allowed to critique it either. It is another woke identity elite fuck up that will cost Labour the election.

    As is opening up the borders so that workers can leave for better wages and conditions, more people can flood in, and allowing the usual dirty politics and money exchanges to start up again before the election.

  16. If we look at the trend since early 2021, the reality is impossible to deny…..unless you are a Labour Party sycophant. Recently the Labour Party showed how tone deaf they are by putting up on Social Media a link where they were astonishingly congratulating themselves on housing. Labour have got some important things right, but they have got it very badly wrong on housing creating unprecedented inequity. I wanted to encourage discussion on the link they put up but the sycophants were not remotely interested. On mass they accused me of being a “National Party Troll”. It became obvious these people are not interested in sensible debate / discussion in a democracy. They just want to congratulate themselves and each other while Labour continue their nose dive in the polls. Good luck with that mindset and tactic in 2023. Labour could bring in a policy where all kittens and puppies must be drowned at 6 months and these sock and Roman sandal wearing devotees would still be congratulating themselves. It’s truly nauseating.

    I recoil at National and Luxon but Labour are now showing themselves as a party that’s best quality at this time is “they are not as bad as National”. Sorry, but that’s just not a good enough reason to vote for them. That leaves me in a quandary. National are not fit to lead NZ. ACT are even worse. The Greens are a bunch of irrelevant sensible shoe wearers only interested in their own agenda. Two things have changed since they went into Parliament. 1) They have become more irrelevant and 2) the quality of the clothing has dramatically improved courtesy of their handsome remuneration packages. If the status quo remains I will abstain from voting in 2023. What a sad indictment.

    Labour continuing to do the “but but whatabout National” over housing will not get them over the line in next years election. They need to own their epic failures and get it right with urgency. The first step in the right direction would be to admit the reset with Megan Woods has failed. She is even worse than Phil Twyford. I hope they get it right but despite my search, I’ve seen no encouraging evidence. The clock is ticking….tick tock tick tock…

  17. 38% polling for the Labour Party who I voted for and will again at this stage is still good if we look at everything we have been through. We as a country cannot afford to have a novice become our PM. The novice was looking like the cat that swallowed the canary this morning when being interviewed.

  18. 38% polling for the Labour Party who I voted for and will again at this stage is still good if we look at everything we have been through. We as a country cannot afford to have a novice become our PM. The novice was looking like the cat that swallowed the canary this morning when being interviewed.

  19. 38% polling for the Labour Party who I voted for and will again at this stage is still good if we look at everything we have been through. We as a country cannot afford to have a novice become our PM. The novice was looking like the cat that swallowed the canary this morning when being interviewed.

  20. So who is middle NZ ?are you saying Maori aren’t part of your middle NZ cause at the last election most of the Maori voting block gave National the middle finger not their vote.

  21. Do you really believe that Yeti if so you are deluded to claim National are better at managing our economy something Luxon seems to be repeating along with a number of other spin lines

  22. Do you really believe that Yeti if so you are deluded to claim National are better at managing our economy something Luxon seems to be repeating along with a number of other spin lines. We will go through all the government spending line by line, really!

  23. “Luxon’s luck continues to hold and despite his total lack of real leadership and his inability to answer basic questions,”

    You got that right at least Bomber

    • Ross Meurant,

      Luxon is very good at two things.

      1) Not answering questions.

      2) Hiding just who and what he is.

      When it matters most, he won’t be gifted a free pass on either.

      • TM
        Yep, same as Ardern then. As I said, it’s just Labour white noise now….the nation is tuning to another station. Dial to the right…

  24. In my opinion I agree with Sour Kraut’s comment “I think Labour are done for 2023.” I truly hope Sour Kraut is right! In my opinion the P.M. is a talker – not a DOER! I also think she doesn’t speak TRUTH! I intend to vote for Sue Gray & Co. They care about the planet Earth. All the rest only think Earth is for everyone to exploit our Mother (Earth). Earth is not ours; we are the Earth’s

  25. You know, mate, we can read the picture and compare it to your words– leave the bullshitty headlines for those who can’t. If we are here we are intelligent, no need to go the the Left sensationalistic utube route.

  26. On the other hand I’ m thinking about the Maori Party as recipient of my vote, knowing zero-ish about them over than their standing up for Maori, which is a lot. Greens and Labour are so milquetoast. Of course they’d have to be near 5%.


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