In his most recent and wide ranging interview, Left wing God Noam Chomsky declares “We’re approaching the most dangerous point in human history”.
He is depressingly correct.
I don’t think we have understood the ramifications of Putin’s mad war in the Ukraine.
I was one of the few punters who correctly predicted Putin would invade the Ukraine. I argued Russia saw the attempted coup in Kazakhstan in January as part of the West’s hybrid war against Russia and the ongoing military friction in the East of Ukraine alongside Russian fears of NATO expansion have all combined to cement into place Putin’s view that this war is an existential necessity for Russia and that he is the inheritor of 1000 years of the True Christian Faith stretching back to 987AD when his namesake, Vladimir the Great baptised 1000 Russians in the Kyiv River.
I’ve argued that the West wants to tell itself that Putin miscalculated, but my fear is that he pushed his reluctant army into a conflict he knew it couldn’t win until it caused a threat so large he would be allowed to escalate it to survive.
I think for Putin the Ukraine is but the start of a new campaign to destabilise the entire rules based system and that Bosnia-Herzegovina and the Iranians nuclear deal are the next flash points.
I think Putin sees Russia only winning in a new state of chaos.
I don’t think Markets have really appreciated that this war won’t end.
In China, their zero tolerance to Covid has locked down entire cities. The extreme supply chain stresses this is creating to the global economy aside, the scale of human suffering in cities of affluence and wealth bode ill for the repressive Chinese regime exacerbating internal tensions that make the ruling elite nervous enough to want to distract the domestic population with an invasion of Taiwan.
Complicating all of this is a climate crisis that is endlessly eroding the weakest and most vulnerable amongst us.
Economic meltdown, war, mass pandemic, climate crisis and mass refugee migrations.
This is the future, a world of constant external shocks.
How NZ adapts to this new reality is crucial for our survival.
The tyranny of distance is now our saviour!
Isolationism and self sufficiency must be the new values of our home.
Fortress Aotearoa is inevitable.
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