Last week I made risky prediction, that the Russian army is close to collapse. It was a bold statement so this week we need to see how that prediction is tracking, are there indications of whether it was correct or not?
Starting in the north with the battle for Kiev, we can see interesting trends unfolding. In the last article the town of Obukhiv, south of Kiev was in Ukrainian hands. It was an indicator of Ukrainian offensive action and a loss for the Russians. The town is important because holding it allows a complete encirclement of the Kiev’s west side by Russia.
Obukhiv is still in Ukrainian hands, further the Ukrainians now hold Fastiv, Borova and Vasilykiv. Small towns to the south and south west of Kiev. At the start of last week all of these towns were contested by the Russians. By holding these towns the Ukrainians control a ‘corridor’ on the west side of the Dnieper, approximately 60 km wide and centred on a main highway, the E95.
What this means from a tactical perspective can be summarised in three key observations. First, that that Ukrainians are demonstrating the ability to take the offensive locally and win. Second, that the Ukrainians have used this capability to open a supply line into Kiev. A supply line that as now been open for about 48 hours. Third, this activity demonstrates a level of planning and coordination on the Ukrainian side that indicates that their command structure is intact and planning a cohesive and sensible strategy.
In coming days, a key area to observe will Kiev’s western flank. If the Ukrainians can generate sufficient combat power, which now seems likely with a large supply route open to the city it is likely that we will see the corridor widen and push north towards Makariv.
Looking south, the Russian thrust towards Odessa has lost momentum. Recently, Kherson fell to the Russians and after a pause, they thrust west towards Odessa, attacking two cities on the Bug River. Mykolaiv on the coast and 50 kilometres north, Voznesensk. Obviously, the Russians had worked out that taking Kiev was going to be beyond them and by moving west along the coast of the Black Sea there was the possibility of taking Odessa and capturing a ‘Crimean Corridor’ thereby securing Crimea and Donestk, providing access to the sea and perhaps allowing a direct land route to support Transnistria.
However, both Mykolaiv and Voznesensk are now in Urkainian control. At this time we have not seen Ukrainian offensives in this area, for instance towns or cities in Russian control being taken back but I think we should keep looking at the area between Mykolaiv in the west and the coast, Zaporizhia in the north on Dnieper and Mariupol in the east.
Mariupol continues to be reduced with artillery fire and it will take a major offensive for the Ukrainians to re-capture it. However, at this stage this does not seem beyond the realms of possibility in coming weeks and a number of changes in the situation contribute to this picture. At a tactical level, we are starting to get some firmer estimates of Russian casualties, the Pentagon reporting last week they estimate approximately 7000 Russian soldiers have been killed and it is likely that Russia has suffered in the region 20,000 casualties.
The Russian invasion force was approximately 180,000 me and reaching ten percent casualties is a key threshold for military planners because it means that your force is likely to become ineffective. Then consider where those casualties are most likely to be concentrated, likely in the frontline troops. We have discussed the size of the Russian force before and these casualties will make a big difference on Russian effectiveness because they are simply running out people.
Strategically, two key observations should be noted this week. Firstly, that the Chinese have distanced themselves from supporting the war. Chinese President Xi Jinping is walking a political tightrope trying to establish China as a possible mediator but being careful not to upset either side. This is very important because it confirms that the Chinese see this war as a lost cause for Russia. Generally, there is no margin in backing a loser. In terms of this war China’s actions are very important, if they did choose to support Russia directly the threat of catastrophic escalation is much, much higher.
The second observation is the increasing strength of American rhetoric and action. Last week, American diplomats forcefully warned the Chinese about intervention, President Biden also promised approximately $ 800 million dollars of ‘security’ assistance to Ukraine including; 800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems. 2,000 Javelin anti-tanks missiles, 1,000 light anti-armour guided weapons, 100 drones and lots of ammunition, body armour and helmets. This equipment will make a huge difference to the Ukrainians and is likely already reaching front line troops. Remember the 60-kilometre corridor leading into Kiev.
Further, President Biden called Putin a ‘war criminal’ an emotive and escalatory statement. This statement is very interesting because if there was a significant risk of a nuclear escalation it would be unlikely for the United States President to use this type of language. Statements like this demand that we look for the information that is not seen. What is going here?
My observation is that America has a substantial intelligence capability and probably has very good insight into the Russian military’s communications and control systems. Further, there exist unofficial, back-channel discussions between diplomats and generals and it seems likely that from these sources there is information that Putin may not be backed as strongly by his military as previously supposed. Perhaps this rhetoric is a ‘dog whistle’ for those in the shadows waiting to move?
In summary since the last article, the Russian army in Ukraine has not collapsed, yet.
But the combat indicators are pointing towards this conclusion, General Ben Hodges last week predicted the Russians have about ten days fighting left, about the end of this week. Between their combat loses, the military reinforcement of Ukraine and Russia’s increasing isolation it seems more and more likely that this war is going to end sooner than we expect. The next few days will be very important.
Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.
“This statement is very interesting because if there was a significant risk of a nuclear escalation it would be unlikely for the United States President to use this type of language. ” – Do remember that this is relying on the same intelligence apparatus that concludes without doubt that Sadam had WMDs.
That was more likely a straight out lie than faulty intelligence. Its just like the Gulf of Tonkin incident.
What makes you think that this is necessarily different?
I’m sure there are imbeciles out there that think the US can “win” a nuclear war with Russia and are keen to put the theory to the test.
God i hope not but there are retards like John Bolton out there.
I’m not familiar with Bolton.
However I’m sure for some people, the movie “Spies Like Us” was an instruction manual rather than a comedy.
Actually it may not be different. I thought your original comment was questioning the competence of the intelligence apparatus rather than the motives of that apparatus
it’s not even a case of the same spooks….blair knew he was lying and decided to lie shamelessly when he lied to parliament and public…
are we sure contemporary politicians aren’t dealing in ‘deliberate factual inexactitude’
…now I don’t know..and that’s the defect in lying as a ‘go to’ strategy…it may work short term but long term no one belives a fuckin word you’re saying.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kc7f4JKhwtk
A different take on what’s happening in the Ukraine.
Many thanks Kevin for the link. Again, this is completely contrary to MSM bullshit.
Frankly, anyone who thinks the russkies are being rolled by Ukraine has there NATO blinkers on.
There’s plenty of stuff via George Galloway, one of the few commentators who speaks straight and shows the unfiltered facts, warts and all.
Glad I’m not alone in ‘not falling’ for all this insane propaganda, to justify sending money and weapons, instead of looking after the poor soles here in NZ.
George Galloway, the RT Shill who has a history of selling his soul to the biggest payer. His new VERY young wife is now his paid for sidekick on RT sputnik, the man has no shame.
Another old pseudo leftist apologist mouthpiece for the Assad’s, Gaddafi’s, Putins etc of the world.
Mariupol will fall into Russian control by the end of the week and the Azov Nazi Battalion will be doing a runner after they execute Ukrainians on their way out of the city.
A tried and tested CIA tactic of Scorched Earth.
Run where? They are surrounded.
Stalingrad No 2 coming up!
just pointing out the russians won at stalingrad…juz sayin mate juz sayin…
oh pleas only a few hundred out and out Nazis. Azov isn’t even at Mariupol they’re in Donbass.
If any of you are struggling to understand why the Russian army is so ineffective, watch this – it’s a revelation.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=482644746742522
If Russia has been planning this occupation for since 2014, they certainly structured their military wrong. Mostly bling but no basics
Worth a look; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJkmcNjh_bg&t=1155s
“I’ll leave the mil and ex-mil to comment on the strategy, operations, and tactics we’ve observed over the last week. But there’s another part to all this, and that’s that Russia may spend more on its military than Ukraine…but it also spends a bunch of that on blingy capabilities that have and now they’re paying the price. They’ve got thousands of nukes, they’ve got battlecruisers, and next gen hypersonic missiles…but they have tanks missing GPS, troops with no night vision, and an air force without the kit it needs to suppress the limited Ukrainian forces opposing them. It’s all bling, no basics, and here I spend 50 minutes calling them out on it.”
Good link. Thanks.
It could be Putin didn’t tell his generals of his intentions. It’s likely Western intelligence has fully penetrated them so he couldn’t tell his people because it would telegraph his intentions to NATO, who would react by fully arming Ukraine.
Ukraine has already lost the war, Ben, the best part of their army in the East is pretty much surrounded. Next round of negotiations Russia will say agree to our terms and conditions your army will be allowed to exit west. Otherwise it is going to be obliterated.
Bollocks, they’re no where near encircled …yes they are fighting on three fronts but have a huge swathe of territory to the west for supply/reinforcement. Over half of Ukraine’s regular army is intact in west where no Russian has set foot meanwhile day by day more Ukranians of the Reserves are mustering, day by day more civilians are becoming TDF/Militia Fighters. Ukraine can field a million or so before too long. Give it more time and they could muster 5million or more as every Ukrainian between 18 & 60 is eligible to be called up. Of course too many over 60 and under 18 will fight if needed plus a large contingent of female fighters as well plus all the volunteers from west will keep coming. West has more trained ex soldiers to volunteer than Russia has vassal/ally rabble for mercenaries.
Unless Putin reveals to his people the “SMO” has failed and calls a full mobilization he can’t win quickly with the numbers he has. All he can do is bomb & shell. Only ones getting obliterated will be the Russians both militarily & economically.
“Over half of Ukraine’s regular army is intact in west where no Russian has set foot”
Not the quality half though, haha.
Once Russia secures important East the west is sloppy seconds and can be absorbed into Poland or something, for all Putin probably cares. The western part certainly wont survive as a stand alone country.
“Give it more time and they could muster 5million or more”
La La Land. What are you planning to arm them with? Despite all the huff and puff about sending weapons to the Ukraine, they cant get the weapons in except ineffective fire crackers. Russia just blew a base near western Polish border sky high with a hyper sonic missile.
All the war mongers in Washington DC are trying to do now is use Ukraine as cannon fodder, hoping to create an Imperial quagmire that might break Putin regime and even break up the Russian nation.
Russia’s legitimate security concerns should have been acknowledged, then this conflict could have been avoided.
With all due respect to Ben Morgan, but if you’re really interested in knowing about the situation in Ukraine, watch this recent interview with former US military advisor to the US president, and understand what the conflict is really all about and how Russia is handling it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFngc_8RiVc
FULL INTERVIEW: Under shot and shell our man in Kharkiv #Gonzalo Lira is on the money https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kc7f4JKhwtk
slow grow
4 hours ago (edited)
I’m impressed, this guest is observant and smart! He’s also got the take I have to agree with. Putin is no monster compared to the ones who run my side of the pond. My respect on steroids to Mr Lira. He needs to keep his appearance unknown and stay safe.
Mate … I use telegram to stay informed and what Russian artillery and aviation are doing is doing to these local offensives is not pretty. I don’t know where people get this idea that the RAF are losing or close to defeat when Ukraine armed forces have to hide their weapon platforms inside of cities.
An ex CIA mans comments
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/larry-c-johnson-the-ukrainian-army-has-been-defeated-whats-left-is-mop-up/
How are we supposed to know the truth when all we get is the Ukrainian position and that’s hardly trustworthy
Seems like the west has no understanding of how the Russians do invasion .Actual seasoned generals like Douglas MacGregor and the Indian Major General Bakshi explain
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/douglas-macgregor-declares-russian-victory-the-war-is-really-over-for-the-ukrainians-they-have-been-grounded-to-bits/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMEpo6h3A-s&t=1015s
This article supports Ben Morgan’s view:-
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/
I cant wait for this man to explain his conclusions when Ukraine surrenders. There will be a whole lot of egg requiring scraping off faces. Question I have is why do we pay these people?
Yeah. The Atlantic. like, almost as strong a source as the ingredients bix on a McHappy Meal box.
Interesting article thanks for sharing.
US centric sources are obviously where he’s getting his info from
With Russia effectively owning the skies, a No Fly Zone.
It prevents a NATO/US style Carpet Bombing Campaign.
NATO’s aggression against Yugoslavia in 1999 lasted for 78 days. The alliance’s leadership argued that the main reason for the operation codenamed Allied Force was prevention of genocide of Kosovo’s Albanians. According to NATO’s sources its aircraft flew 38,000 sorties and carried out 10,000 bombing strikes.
The bombardments killed, according to different estimates, 3,500-4,000, and left about 10,000 others (two-thirds of them civilians) injured. The material damage totaled $100 billion. During the three months of bombardments NATO forces dropped on Serbia 15 tonnes of depleted uranium in bombs and shells. After that the country’s cancer rates surged to first place in Europe. In the first ten years following the bombardments about 30,000 developed cancer and an estimated 10,000-18,000 of them died.
Yes, and the numbers of the Serbian genocide in Srebenicra ?
Said to be 8,000, but the bodies couldn’t be found .The laughable, comic book answer to that was the Serbs dug them up again and managed to hide them
Its a sad indictment on NATO US savagery. Biolabs, depleted uranium, chemical warfare. And they claim to be the good guys.
I hope for everyone’s sake that you are right but the news is so tainted and propagandised these days its hard to know what is going on. It certainly looks like Mariupol is gone and Kherson and Kharkiv and a couple of others look like they may be close to being over run as well.
If the Russians are on their way out (not sure about this) Putin will be looking to gain territory in the south and east and even the north (Chernyhiv? – the arty place? has been bombed as well) so that he goes back with some kind of victory.
I just hope peace comes soon. The situation sucks.
Thanks everyone for all the excellent links.I wonder if Ben refers to them . It would be interesting to read his response.
I wonder if he is surprised or discouraged to find that almost no one on TDB thinks he is connected to reality.
Perhaps he is just doing his job and knows perfectly well what the reality is.
D J S
Or perhaps Ben has a better understanding of what is actually happening than most of those commentating on here who seem to discount any reports from ‘the West’ and instead put all their stock in some obscure blogger in Tajikistan who knows a guy who knows a guy or some equally obscure retired Indian general with a handlebar moustache and a fond memories of when India was receiving Soviet military equipment and training.
Perhaps;
You can only try to get the overall picture and feed what is known over a long period of time, and assume what stories make most sense to you with all that in mind. And try to be ready to change your mind when convincing evidence alters the overall picture.
D J S
Ive been wondering about the cognitive dissonance of people who become too partison to see what is obvious. Seems to be that if evidence based reality doesnt conform thats OK because you can choose, its your God given right. Our society accepts men chosing to be women and competing in sport as women, so whats so difficult as denying news you dont like?
Stuff news are doing their bit in pro-war propaganda ,,,, and youtube their bit with censorship.
In response to a stuff clip about some kiwis going to ‘join the fight’,,,, I posted the suggestion they watch ukraine tv to motivate themselves https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1EZTPt5XvU
my comment was censored/deleted off youtube ,,,
Regardless of where the truth lies in this situation the whole thing is an obscenity that needs to stop. Putin is a war criminal pure and simple but after Iraq where do you draw the line? Hopefully this stops soon before many more completely innocent people lose their lives.
Maybe it stops when the US stops dictating terms to Zelensky
armatures talk strategy, professionals talk logistics.
Bollocks, they’re no where near encircled …yes they are fighting on three fronts but have a huge swathe of territory to the west for supply/reinforcement. Over half of Ukraine’s regular army is intact in west where no Russian has set foot meanwhile day by day more Ukranians of the Reserves are mustering, day by day more civilians are becoming TDF/Militia Fighters. Ukraine can field a million or so before too long. Give it more time and they could muster 5million or more as every Ukrainian between 18 & 60 is eligible to be called up. Of course too many over 60 and under 18 will fight if needed plus a large contingent of female fighters as well plus all the volunteers from west will keep coming. West has more trained ex soldiers to volunteer than Russia has vassal/ally rabble for mercenaries.
Unless Putin reveals to his people the “SMO” has failed and calls a full mobilization he can’t win quickly with the numbers he has. All he can do is bomb & shell. Only ones getting obliterated will be the Russians both militarily & economically.
is that crimzon I hear whistling in the dark?