Yesterday, I predicted that the ground war would slow down. NATO is standing firm, ruling out any commitment to intervene thereby giving the Russians the time they need slowly develop their operations, strangle Kiev and advance slowly towards their objectives.
At the same time, both sides recent ‘Cry Havoc’ was unleashing the ‘dogs of war’ as volunteers from the west started arriving in Ukraine and there were reports of battle-hardened Syrians and Chechens being recruited by the Russians. The war started to develop the potential to descend into medieval savagery as tough young men travel there to fight. Mercenaries and volunteers are always bad news. Professional soldiers are bound by conventions and laws, they are led by officers schooled in military law. No matter the ‘spin’, mercenaries and volunteers are really just dangerous young men looking for an opportunity for excitement and without legal or moral constraints so their employment historically ends in great amounts of suffering.
The injection of irregular foreign troops into the mix by Russia is also an indication that either; Russia is running out of manpower, or they are using the idea of bloodthirsty mercenaries descending on Ukrainian cities to scare their opposition. An information operation like this is entirely plausible, it could be that both inferences are true. It does make interpretation of Putin’s recently released points for negotiation more interesting.
This morning (NZ time) Putin’s requirements for a withdrawal and ceasefire were published, and they shocked me. Recognition of the Crimea as Russian, and Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states and Ukrainian neutrality. Further, the Russian’s stated that they were willing to immediately stop military action if these conditions were met.
Yesterday, I said that the negotiating table is now a key area of operations. That the Russians are over-extended and exhausted so they will need to focus on getting out of the war while saving as much face as possible. Putin’s negotiating position shocked me because it seems a very favourable offer. If, Ukraine accepts, then it essentially returns to the pre-invasion status quo. Although, Ukraine has to legitimise the disputed areas Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk but they were in Russian hands before the war anyway. It has to remain neutral, but being neutral does not necessarily mean unarmed.
Why are the Russians making this offer? Putin, is difficult to understand. Is he a manipulative, megalomanic psychopath ready to commit to nuclear war? Or is a he a master strategist? The problem is that we just don’t know, so must interpret the situation based on either facts or logical deductions that can be made from those facts.
At this point it is a fact that the ground war is not progressing significantly, Kiev is still under pressure but has not suffered a deliberate and sustained attack. The western envelopment of the city is still being contested. Obukhiv, a key indicator of Russian success, approximately 35 kilometres south of Kiev and close to the Dnieper still hasn’t been captured. If the Russians hold this town then they are likely to complete the encirclement of Kiev’s western side.
In the south fighting continues, the Russians have not made any significant advance in last couple of days although it appears they are still focussed on pushing north along the Dnieper. The same applies in the east around Kharkov. Reports of Russian logistics failures continue to mount and are coming from increasingly credible analysts.
Another logistic problem that people outside the military may find interesting is ‘track life’. A tank or a BMP infantry combat vehicle is a finely tuned piece of machinery, it requires maintenance and constant servicing especially the tracks. The metal caterpillar tracks that these vehicles run on, stretch and wear out quickly. On average a track lasts about 500 kilometres, which is why tanks normally move of transporters or trains when they are not fighting or exercising. Replacement track is expensive, bulky and heavy. Doing some quick maths we can see that there are probably a whole lot of Russian vehicles the need new track right now. If the Russian army is having logistics problems, then this week, they are likely getting worse.
Perhaps, Putin’s generals have been honest, sat down with him and outlined the difficulty of continuing to prosecute the war. A ceasefire would provide breathing space and an opportunity to reorganise, repair and re-quip units. It doesn’t mean the end of Russia’s attempts to absorb Ukraine, instead it may be maskirovka, a strategic deception that would allow time to; plan, re-equip, fight an information war and undermine the Ukrainian government.
It maybe that a team of generals is presenting a plan, to lull NATO into a false sense of security by negotiating. Ukraine’s recognition of Crimea as Russian and the independence of the breakaway states provides a ‘win’; and we wait, let the west forget about Ukraine, undermine the Ukrainian government, perhaps assassinate Zelensky, use our cyber war capability to get a more amenable candidate elected. We can always invade again, but this time we will do it right.
Another option is that Putin’s offer is a different kind of deception. It is to lull the west into a sense of security or to create a picture of reasonableness so that if he uses a tactical nuclear weapon the shock value is maximised. That shock is what would make the ‘escalate to de-escalate’ strategy most effective.
On the balance of probability, the first option is the most likely. The Russians know that they are facing a long, tough battle to conquer Ukraine. A battle that will degenerate rapidly into a failed state on Russia’s border. Putin’s generals are sure to be pointing out the risk to Russia of Ukraine being at war. If Ukraine becomes a lawless warzone contested by Russians, Ukrainians and a range of dangerous outsiders it provides opportunities for other powers to fight a proxy war against the regimes in Russia and Belarus. Security of Ukraine is what this war was all about, it does not make sense to let Ukraine fall into lawlessness.
Negotiation seems to be a sensible way for Russia to play the long game. No-one wins a nuclear confrontation; however I don’t think we can rule that threat out yet because we just don’t know enough about the Kremlin and about Putin.
So at the end of D + 12 let’s look at our predictions:
- Defining Russian main effort remains difficult and in all likelihood at this stage in the campaign it is probably – resupply and re-organisation.
- Do not expect the Russia to advance much in the next few days. With increasingly credible reports of logistics problems confirming initial assessments of Russia capability I think that:
- Kiev is still a key objective but the situation is stable there and unlikely to develop further until after the next round of negotiations.
- Fighting in south will remain relatively static and reports of fighting still indicate a northern direction of advance rather than a switch west towards Odessa.
- The negotiation table is now the key area of battle. It does not look like the Russians can currently generate the combat power to be using the ground campaign to influence negotiations. If the Russians did have that capability, we would be seeing it deployed. Instead, expect a quiet few days before the negotiations.
In summary, the last 24 hours appear to be confirming initial assessments of the Russian army’s capacity. This morning’s statements by Putin about demands for peace are very difficult to assess but on the balance of probability are likely to be an attempt to extricate Russia from a damaging war and secure some political gains with which to justify the action. The implications are very hard to understand. Once again, only time will tell.
Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.
Dont trust ’em boss.
Putin hasnt been moving pieces into place for 15 years or more for no reason. He is the original snake in the grass, a very dangerous and intelligent viper who may or may not be a little deluded.
Speak for yourself.. Or have you been interacting with Vladimir for a while now? How else would you have the slightest idea what Putin is? Can you tell me what Joe Biden is? After all, how many countries were wrecked by the administration he was VP of? And how many of them have shown to be justifiable now that the histories have begun to emerge? And who has just settled back into the agenda he was driving before his party was dudded by Trump? Before people start assuming they know a man, they should at least have knowledge that can be used to show the reasoning behind that assumption…
There’s a lot more precision involved with this war than the Iraq War interns of casualties.
Not much precision here buddy maybe a blunt stick and sledge hammer type approach IMHO.
Don’t you follow Scott Ritter? Douglas MacGregor? The truth on the ground, according to real experts, is that Russia went in soft: unlike the US, it is not attacking civilian infrastructure (power still on, internet still on, water still on), Ukrainian forces using cities and civilians are not being attacked with the kinds of weapons Russian could use to flatten them because they don’t want to kill people who they hope, under a different regime, will have good relations with Russia, and so on and so forth. Russia also wants to Ukrainian troops to surrender, i.e. conscripts, but that too is difficult since officers and paramilitaries have orders to shoot any troops not prepared to fight to the last. The main thrust of the Russia military was not the cities but the encirclement of the main bodies of Ukrainian forces, particularly in the Donbass, where somewhere between 50k and 75k. That encirclement seems now to be achieved. Russia still hasn’t applied its artillery and other heavy weapons because it wants to allow time for those able and willing to surrender to do so, but the outcome is inevitable: the total destruction of large-scale military resistance. In the meantime, Russians continue encirclements elsewhere in the country, including Odessa. Russia’s war is going according to plan as best as one can determine.
Russia did want a soft takeover/regime change but the resistance must be a bit of a shock to them. One would have thought that the Russians were well and truly aware of how much the CIA invested in training Ukrainian resistance. Putin & co were hoping for more support from the general Ukraine population, which they got in the East, but it is a huge Country.
Once again, now that it is war, we won’t know what the truth is in the reporting but one thing that is totally evident is the wall to wall one sided hypocritical condemnation of Russia when none was poured upon the USA for its multitudinous invasions time after time and year upon year. Very ironic in that it is the USA who is responsible for the current situation in the Ukraine.
No it is Russia that is responsible for the current situation in the Ukraine . . go back to sleep cuddling your Putin doll.
That comment simply identifies you as too stupid to think rationally. I personally will take onboard the analysis of experienced, and highly competent military analysts, and commentators that have been involved in many of this type of situation, which is obviously way out of your abilities to understand at any level, and who would be disgusted at your mindless, bigoted outburst… If ypou have nothing to add but ignorance and vitriol, then possibly you should keep that to yourself… Now thousands will know your limitations.. Mr Yankee poodle dandy 🙂
Thanks for your feedback Stefan – I have a masters degree in defence studies with honours how about you?
How about Douglas MacGregor ? He says the Russians have already won and that Western talking heads are spouting crap. Now I know he doesn’t have a degree in defence studies like you , you paper expert , he’s just an engineer with a Phd in international relations and actual battlefield experience. Read his bio to see the esteem this man is accorded .
Or Scott Ritter who against mainstream consensus was proven right in his assessment on WMD who also says the Russians have already won .
Whom to believe?
A defence expert like you labouring away behind your keyboard against the anti American hordes or the american experts whose judgements and actions speak for themselves.
Hmm?
Let’s just see how this all pans out then.
Yours truly,
The Paper Expert.
Just read about your mate Doug Macgregor:
“Hours after the Media Buzz appearance, Griffin was forced to return to the fact-checking, during an appearance on Trey Gowdy’s Fox News show. Gowdy, a former Republican congressman, had just been chatting with his guest, the former Trump military adviser Doug Macgregor, and Griffin had some thoughts.
“I feel like I need to correct some of the things that Col Douglas Macgregor said, and I’m not sure that 10 minutes is enough time to do so, because there were so many distortions,” Griffin began.
Macgregor, a former army colonel, had confidently told Gowdy that Putin had no intention of invading any other countries, and said the Russian president was merely “carrying through on something that he has been warning us about at least for the last 15 years”. Macgregor claimed that Russians and Ukrainians were “indistinguishable” from one another, and when asked whether Russia should be allowed to take as much of Ukraine as he likes, Macgregor said: “Yes, absolutely.”
Griffin came on air and swiftly accused Macgregor of sounding like a Putin “apologist”: because “there were so many distortions in what he just said”.
“I don’t think anyone I’ve spoken to at the Pentagon or elsewhere in western intelligence believes they know how far Putin wants to go,” she said.
Griffin said that Macgregor, when an adviser to the Trump administration, had supported pulling US troops out of Germany.”
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/mar/04/jennifer-griffin-fox-news-fact-checking-ukraine
First anyone who thinks msm or US intelligence is a reliable source of information is a fool cause yunno WMD brouhaha or US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo: “I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole. We had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment.” and countless other examples.
Second I just visited the link you provided and i now suspect you’re lying about your qualifications or if you’re not lying about your Masters in defense I weep for the future of NZ because we are f#$ked if you’re indicative of educational standards.
A line from taken from the story you linked to from the moronic “fact checker ” Jennifer Griffin about Brigadier General Bolduc ; ” He’s not a military strategist”
From wikipedia ;
Bolduc served ten tours in Afghanistan.[7] In 2006, he led the 1st Battalion, 3rd Special Forces Group during Operation Medusa.[8] From 2010 to 2011, he served as Combined Joint Special Operations Task Force commander. From 2012 to 2013, he commanded the Combined Joint Special Operations Component, where he started the “Village Stability Operations” program.
“Thanks for your feedback Stefan – I have a masters degree in defence studies with honours ” I DON’T BELIEVE YOU ra
How what pans out specifically?
All I read from you is the lordly condescension of the learned towards dissenting opinions peppered with arrogant unproven assertions buttressed with a bit of qualification dropping.
So how about it? Got any predictions observations hypotheses to share?
Let me show you how to offer an opinion.
In my uneducated unqualified opinion if you have an army(1) whose forces are surrounded with nowhere to retreat except through avenues controlled by the other army(2) and the other army(2) has the ability to butcher ,as they please , if they please, whenever they please , a la Debaltseve, army(1) then army(1) has lost.
That Russian forces achieved this under a self handicap of minimizing civilian casualties against a numericcally superior force with home town advantage is even more remarkable.
See that’s how you offer an opinion feel free to tender your own.
Just another ‘tough guy’ hiding behind his keyboard . .
Also it’s ‘yankee doodle’ not ‘yankee poodle’ . .
Yankee poodle sounds better in this case. Where is your youthful flexibility, Mr Master’s graduate?
‘Youthful flexibilty’?
Who even talks like that?
‘Mr Master’s graduate’ . . imagine this is the same as ‘The Paper Expert’ your mate ra has just called me . .
You guys really know your stuff when it comes to ‘name calling’ . . did you attend classes together?
Predicting -20.0 C in Ukraine tonight those tanks are like refrigerators most of the Russian’s are surrendering as POW’s. They are not stupid and don’t want to get there arses shot off fighting Putin’s War.
Yes Garibaldi – Everyone gets brownie points for having a swing at Russia’s doings.
But bible wisdom here – New King James Version – And why do you look at the speck in your brother’s eye, but do not consider the plank in your own eye?
Grabaldi you need to start reading the Kyiv News rather than RT and get a balance on this whole Ukranian Cluster Fuck IMHO
Well said Midge, the articles from Western sources fail to understand Russian tactical goals, the primary being to destroy Ukrainian military capability and capture their troops. That became inevitable by day one.
What has amazed me is the hopeful rhetoric of Ukrainian resistance and success. All nonsense, watch where front lines are daily, it tells the tale.
Whilst we watch the on ground war the real war of sanction based aggression has resulted in:
*oil price rocketing and shortages.
*world food supplies severely threatenned.
*the dollar as the global reserve currency under threat, being bypassed.
*Germany and France questioning whether their interests and those of the US align.
*China and India openly ignoring US calls.
Putin may just have signalled the end of Pax Americana.
I have no doubt that Ukraine and the “western” sources are not under any misapprehension of what the Russian goals are. Try and disarm the Ukraine military. Problem is 38 million Ukrainians are the military.
Hence the large drop of weapons cache a civilian militia will find useful (shoulder fired missiles and RPG’s , explosives, small arms. ammunition, etc.
Question is can the Russian army control the 39 million strong Ukrainian population?
Already locals are scavenging the battle field for easy to transport weapons and ammunition.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t6n15g/ukrainian_civilians_film_themselves_steal_a/
And partisans are very active behind the front line.
https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1616126/a-look-at-ukraine-s-partisan-war-where-lithuanian-weaponry-has-the-edge
Also worth a read;
https://abc7news.com/russia-ukraine-war-news-russian-invasion-ukrainian-women/11621895/
I guess this will all be labelled by you as “misinformation” and “misunderstanding” within Russia itself.
Evidently the Ukranian Farmers are now the 4th largest army in the world, with the number of Russian Tanks they have confiscated ?
“Russia’s war is going according to plan as best as one can determine.”
Must have been a pretty shit plan.
James – you are a tedious, boring part of the wall-to-wall propaganda mentioned above.
It is not propaganda to point out that this war is not going well for Russia and if it was Putin wouldn’t now be offering terms to cease hostilities which as Ben points out certainly in no way justifies the considerable losses they have already taken.
“Putin’s negotiating position shocked me because it seems a very favourable offer. If, Ukraine accepts, then it essentially returns to the pre-invasion status quo.”
Look I get that many of you live in a simple ‘the West is the root of all evil’ world but there is no way that the invasion of Ukraine is morally justifiable and personally I feel that this is a tragedy for not only the Ukrainian people but also for many of the Russian soldiers (many young conscripts) who have been sent into combat under false pretences, inadequate support and training.
If Russia thought Afghanistan was bad this is shaping up to be a whole lot worse / this is all increasingly appearing similar to the Soviet’s invasion of Finland in late ’39 (The Winter War).
Hopefully Putin will agree to full compensation for the rebuild of the Ukraine for damages incurred during Russia’s Special Operations in the Ukraine Feb-March 2022.
Oh, Spare us please!
JB evidently 11,000 dead in 14 days, they thought Afghanistan was bad and they lost 14,500 over 10 years, this one is not going super good either.
Agreed Ngungukai and now that Western volunteers are starting to arrive in numbers (some even current serving British Army who have gone AWOL to fight) this is only going to get worse for those poor Russian conscripts.
“Secondly, the modern battlefield, as seen in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, has changed beyond recognition. Irregular, lightly armed and mobile forces that consist of motivated individuals now use tactics that are hard for conventional forces to counter. Tanks are not suited to this type of warfare – here they are vulnerable to threats from lone operators who, equipped with a moped and a handheld anti-tank weapon, are just as dangerous as an opposing tank. The threat posed by roadside IEDs is also constant.”
Written by a former British Army tank commander (link provided by someone else on here that was an interesting read).
https://reaction.life/dominic-cummings-is-right-tanks-are-hopelessly-outdated-in-modern-warfare/
Don’t make up straw man arguments about me. For one who claims to have a university Master’s degree, you descend very quickly into childish forms of bebate.
https://www.readandspell.com/learning-to-spell-for-adults
Silly boy.
In Vino it is called “War Pornography”.
In Vino hope you are tuned into Russia Today, and keeping up to date from a balanced Russian perspective, pays to get both sides of the story.
In Vino I hope you are keeping up on all the latest developments on RT. That’s Russia Today they have a different angle on the Special Operation in the Ukraine.
FYI I don’t have Sky and have never tuned in to RT in my life. Stop making facile assumptions.
The way things are going for Putin, Russia looks like it will become a Hermit Kingdom like North Korea, with no contact with the Western World it will trade with the likes of China, India, North Korea, Eritrea, Syria, Cuba and other despotic regimes around the rest of the world.
Russia will have caused a lot of damage to the Ukraine to Government/Private Infrastructure and will be liable for the damages and the reinstatement costs, this will be a big financial burden on the Russian People in future years to come.
If Putin is silly enough to let off a Nuclear Device Russia will be flattened and will have to be rebuilt by the UN and what is left of the Russian People.
if you can’t stop putin invading do you really really really think sending him a bill will work?
Evidently the Russian Officers are shooting their own wounded soldiers-lovely chaps these Russians ?
I really feel sorry for these young Russian conscripts and their mothers back in Russia, FFS they did not even know they were going off to fight a War ? Evidently it is a Special Operation.
Don’t lazily believe what you hear just because it suits your indoctrination. Smebody told you about Stalin’s Blocking Units in World War 2, did they?
another nazi generals ‘why we lost the war’ myth…the ‘blocking detachments’ exist in all armies they’re called military police. ‘enemy at the gates is a work of fiction..
try researching the trench police/regimental police in the british army in ww1, you won’t be able to because the records were conveniently lost.
No can’t remember much about WW2 History at school is was o long ago enlighten me about Smebodyand Stalin’s Blocking Units in WW2, interested to hear.
the NKVD (soviet secret police at the time) had military units, which ironically being ‘true believers’ fought very well, they also fulfiilled military police duties and counter espionage(until the formation of SMERSH, yes real name) so like any other army they rounded up deserters executing some and sending the majority to penal units(pretty bad option in itself)
Most of the confusion on this stems from the self serving memoires of defeated nazi generals and a mischaracterization of stalins ‘prikaz 227- not one step back’
it’s not just my estimation look at any review of enemy at the gates with reference to it’s historical accuracy.
citation please.
Do your own research you lazy C*** !!!
Yup and good job – demanding and condescending . .
Gagarin – I found the DVD doco
“Blood on the Snow” fairly convincing, I think Stalingrad is episode 5: they interview people who were in the blocking units. Probably not made up to my mind. Stalin and his mates were easily that nasty.
Gagarin – I found the DVD doco
“Blood on the Snow” fairly convincing, I think Stalingrad is episode 5: they interview people who were in the blocking units. Probably not made up to my mind. Stalin and his mates were easily that nasty.
Absolutely right . But careful now speaking truth makes you a dirty Russian sympathizer when everybody knows evil Russians shell evacuating civilians even when it’s against their own interest ’cause you know evacuated civilians + isolated azov brigades = big hole in the ground.
Sorry this was meant to be reply to midges great comment
Ukraine lost the legendary Grey Ghost in the last couple of days, he had come back out of retirement to fight for the Ukraine Air Force, he had shot down a record 7 x Russian Aircraft since the Russian Special Operations Campaign had started in the Ukraine in the past month. RIP Grey Ghost.
That myth has been totally debunked …by the BBC!!!
Absolutely right . But careful now speaking truth makes you a dirty Russian sympathizer when everybody knows evil Russians shell evacuating civilians even when it’s against their own interest ’cause you know evacuated civilians + isolated azov brigades = big hole in the ground.
Russian generals are still relying on Main Battle Tank to provide the spearhead of their advance. But MBT are very expensive, hard to maintain and soak up a lot of resources. They are nearly useless unless well supported by infantry when in close combat against opposition with shoulder fired anti tank missiles. Add remote controlled drone attacks and the cost of one MBT (or any other armoured vehicle) is not justified for the actual damage they do to the enemy. Plenty of U Tube videos of abandoned Russian MBT (and all other types of fighting vehicles) would indicate reliability and battle field maintenance and vehicle recovery logistical problems.
MBT’s are becoming like the naval battleship, outdated in modern warfare.
Russians have the supply and maintenance problems compounding an already outdated MBT (mainly T72 with fewer of the newer T90) which are crewed by at times indifferent conscript soldiers (who it would seem don’t even want to be fighting anyway).
Ground attack aircraft and helicopters are also now very susceptible to shoulder fired missiles. (That famous video of a stinger taking out a hind shows just how vulnerable) These are no longer heat seeking (hence less flares are fired by aircraft as a defensive measure) but instead use the absence of background UV light to target where an aircraft is. The aircraft blocks background UV light so wherever there is no UV light the aircraft must be. Countermeasures are easy but not yet developed (UV lights on the aircraft to “hide” the aircraft take a lot of energy).
As with all wars, the aggressor fight it like the last one whilst the defender looks for ways that stonewall those tactics.
Worth a read;
https://reaction.life/dominic-cummings-is-right-tanks-are-hopelessly-outdated-in-modern-warfare/
“Secondly, the modern battlefield, as seen in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, has changed beyond recognition. Irregular, lightly armed and mobile forces that consist of motivated individuals now use tactics that are hard for conventional forces to counter. Tanks are not suited to this type of warfare – here they are vulnerable to threats from lone operators who, equipped with a moped and a handheld anti-tank weapon, are just as dangerous as an opposing tank. The threat posed by roadside IEDs is also constant.”
and
“As every lecturer in military tactics will tell you, tanks can win ground, but they cannot hold it – for this you literally need “boots on the ground.”
Those boots on the ground need to be motivated. Who is more motivated? Russian conscripts or Ukrainian patriots?
When Dreadnought went down the slipway she was already obsolete, the modern torpedo was just arrived, along with aeroplanes and submarines. Despite that battleships fought at sea in two world wars for the next 50 years ending up as artillery support and AA platforms.
What concentrating on MBTs ignores is that tank versus tank is rare, they more often bring massive infantry support firepower. That said so does the latest generation of rocketry. I doubt that the Russian military are unaware, I’d bet that they are utilising the latest thinking.
When Dreadnought went down the slipway she was already obsolete, the modern torpedo was just arrived, along with aeroplanes and submarines. Despite that battleships fought at sea in two world wars for the next 50 years ending up as artillery support and AA platforms.
What concentrating on MBTs ignores is that tank versus tank is rare, they more often bring massive infantry support firepower. That said so does the latest generation of rocketry. I doubt that the Russian military are unaware, I’d bet that they are utilising the latest thinking. And is rocketry they have a massive technology lead.
Big question now is have the Russians met their strategic goal of ejecting future NATO movement east?
It would appear that Ukraine will not join NATO for now. However that does not stop NATO supplying weaponry to the Ukrainians and later allowing the creation of Spanish Civil War style foreign volunteer battalions serving the 38 million strong Ukrainian people, in a partisan war against occupation that Russia can never win.
I think if Russia can take over the south east and the Black Sea coast they would be happy. However they face a major decades long conflict to hold (and spend money rejuvenating) those regions.
I think Russia is in a pickle.
“I think Russia is in a pickle”. Very true Gerrit, but so is the West.
These massive sanctions are going to backfire big time on the West.
I think the USA is making this their stand to achieve total World dominance, whilst Russia and China are aiming to put a stop to it.
If the USA can destroy Russia now then it will destroy China. Russia and China and friends have this last chance to break the USA petrodollar and Empire before the USA gets hypersonic weapons. The West seem to be quite happy to use the Ukrainians as collateral damage in what could be our end game. Before you laugh your heads off this is a plausible and quite possible scenario written by a far greater analyst than me!
Plausible, but most dumbies will tell you to go cuddle your Putin Doll. Too many such dumbies here in Godzone – an isolated country filled with people who are not highly educated in history, but lap up propaganda.
‘Dummies’ not ‘dumbies’ . . quite ironic when you think about it.
Quite
Dumbies ws a term used by a foreign teacher I had. Better than
dummy
which also has the meaning of ‘fake’, as in ‘dummy run’. You see, you don’t necessarily know more about everything.
Highly uneducated dumbies here in NZ Godzone please provide some factual evidence on this, before firing from the hip you f***ing uneducated half wit Putin Sympathizer. Putin is looking for additional Special Forces Directors for his Syrian and Chechen Divisions to fight in the Ukraine for the final mop up stages.
Who are you calling a half-wit, Paleface?
the west blockaded the spanish republic the only aid it got was ironically from the USSR, WHILST THEY TURNED A BLIND EYE TO ACTUAL MILITARY INTERVENTION BY FASCIST ITALY AND NAZI GERMANY…so not really a good example.
A strong independent Ukraine is in Russia’s best interest, it will provide a buffer between Russia and the NATO aligned Countries IMHO. There is no need for the Ukraine to join NATO if they have a strong modern military of their own.
It will be expensive for Russia to pay for the rebuild of the Ukraine with all the damage that they have caused, I would hate to know what the damage figure to date would be, let alone the total cost once this whole shit sandwich is finished. Won’t be pleasant eating once it’s all over. The alternatives are even worse.
This war was won and lost in the first 48 hours and things aren’t going to get any better for Ukraine. There are tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops cut off and surrounded in the north and soon to be the same for everyone in the south. I honestly don’t get where this idea that the Russians are struggling is coming from.
https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-war-in-ukraine/091194
mikesee people buy the propaganda, the russians do ‘encirclement battles’ quite well ask any kraut veteran…their logistics failures are a surprise it’s not like they didn’t have prep time…traffic jams nothing new in mechanised warfare…units stray off their axis of advance and bingo snarl up.
Can you please clarify if you are indeed Russian gagarin?
JB I believe Gagarin has contacts in the Russian military as he is very knowledgeable about their different strategies, could have even travelled to Russia and attended Special Courses.
yup you got me N, or could it just be I engage my brain BEFORE opening my yapper..along with having a nodding aquaintance with the subject in hand…but well done in winning the debating ‘race to the bottom’
feel free to call me hitler as your next mover
nope born a couple of weeks after gagarins flight, the usual question when people run out of arguments…for the record born in the UK mercian/anglo-saxon/norman heritage(with probably shitloads of other ‘inputs’ over the generations)..but I have always been interested in C20th history…the fate of all kids who were brought up on ‘commando comics’
plus I try to have some idea what I’m talking about before I flap me gums…
I too was brought up on Commando comics . . named after a Russian at the height of the Cold War is interesting . . your parents were (not particularly clever) Soviet sleeper agents?
can you please provide evidence you are not a nazi sympathizer and minimizer james brown??
Also as a ‘james brown’ what was your support for BLM ??
Poot’s is fucked IMHO, his troops on the ground have been routed, they are hungry, demoralized and scared. They are asking the following question “What the fuck are we doing here and what is this all about”, the Ukranian people are giving them cell phones to ring their Mothers and are providing them with food & shelter. The sooner Poot’s comes to his senses and negotiates a Cease Fire the better for all parties concerned. Further loss of life is not required IMHO.
This war is one big crap sandwich and we will all be forced to take a bite sooner or later
yeah but the more bread you have the less shit you have to eat..
JB I believe Gagarin has contacts in the Russian military as he is very knowledgeable about their different strategies, could have even travelled to Russia and attended Special Courses.
The generous offer is indicative of Putin’s real agenda.
1. the end of sanctions on Russia for the annexation of Crimea (and occupation in eastern Ukraine) – this only occurs when an independent and internationally recognised sovereign Ukraine consents.
Ukraine should, in my opinion agree, provided Russia takes over a proportion of the national debt of Ukraine equivalent to the land and resources transferred to Russia.
2. Ukraine identifies as neutral, ends any effort to join NATO.
Ukraine should agree, provided it retains an independent defence capability. And that it can still join the EU at or by the time the EU and Russia have an FTA. And this begins a positive Ukraine and Russian economic relationship.
(Putin would still be free to negotiate a reduced NATO presence in former WP nations, via a military build up threat of securing a land bridge to Kaliningrad via Lithuania).
The increase of sanctions on Russia applied recently would have sharpened focus on the importance of a negotiated settlement.
And developing a co-operative relationship between the EU and Russia over Ukraine’s economic revival would reduce the risk of NATO-Russian conflict
This is why there needs to be a deal over Ukraine, rather than a sacrifice of Ukraine to revitalise NATO. The revitalised NATO they seek only comes from a new Cold War with a heavily sanctioned and bitter Russia. This leaves the USA vulnerable to Chinese opportunism (annexation of Taiwan post 2025 – they are giving chip manufacturers time to relocate offshore to reduce the economic risk to the West, so make it more of a fait accompli).
SPC,
This is in essence the situation in Austria. It is formally neutral, but is clearly western leaning being a member of the EU. It also has credible defence forces with NATO quality equipment.
Austria’s neutrality was agreed by the USSR, the US, Britain and France in 1955.
I did suggest this as a solution for Ukraine well over a month ago.
It didn’t need a war for it to happen.
Ukraine needs to assume a similar status like Austria and Finland IMHO.
Carrying on this pointless War is going to cause a massive loss of life for very little gain to either Russia or the Ukraine.
well we knew the russian position from day 1…in fact long before day 1.
Putin is not that stupid he knows if he triggers a Nuclear Device Russia will be sent back to the Dark Ages very quickly by NATO, Israel and the USA.
bbbuut isreal doesn’t have nukes nudge nudge wink wink…
The belief that seems to be almost universal that an enormous country like Russia with a surfeit of natural resources, a modest population, and space age technology . And accused of superior computer hacking skills can be sanctioned to cause her serious hardship seems to me ridiculous. Russia has everything she needs without trading with anyone. it is simply a matter of organisation of existing resources through existing industry to existing needs within Russia. International trade is a bonus if it is carefully assessed. In the long run Russia would be better off to conserve her gas and oil for her own use when everyone else ‘s has run out.
The sanctions will benefit Russia in the future as past sanctions have only led to more self sufficiency in the past.
D J S
Problems at the Chernobyl Nuclear Plant 200 x Ukranian Workers trapped their by the Russians, having to stay there 24/7 not exactly The Hilton at Waikiki in Hawaii.
Ngungukai: Problems at the Chernobyl Nuclear Plant
And now the power’s gone, needed for cooling the 20,000 spent fuel rods.
From Live Science, by Ben Turner: https://www.livescience.com/chernobyl-loses-electricity
Chernobyl’s nuclear power plant and all the facilities in the Chernobyl exclusion zone have been completely disconnected and are now without electricity, Ukraine’s state energy company has announced.
Russian forces attacked the defunct nuclear facility on the very first day of the invasion (Feb. 24), seizing it after heavy fighting and taking its roughly 210 staff hostage, Live Science previously reported. Now that the plant has been disconnected from the electrical grid, the roughly 20,000 spent nuclear fuel units held in the plant’s cooling tanks will no longer receive active cooling. Full article at the link
Putin needs to negotiate otherwise he is going to take Russia and Europe to Hell in a Hand Basket, will not be a particularly Happy Spring In Europe – The European Spring just like the Arab Spring a few years ago.
just about to enter the’ tank season’
“Secondly, the modern battlefield, as seen in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, has changed beyond recognition. Irregular, lightly armed and mobile forces that consist of motivated individuals now use tactics that are hard for conventional forces to counter. Tanks are not suited to this type of warfare – here they are vulnerable to threats from lone operators who, equipped with a moped and a handheld anti-tank weapon, are just as dangerous as an opposing tank. The threat posed by roadside IEDs is also constant.”
https://reaction.life/dominic-cummings-is-right-tanks-are-hopelessly-outdated-in-modern-warfare/
SPC I think that sounds feasible and meets needs, fears and practicality. Hope that the gods on the Ramtops (Terry Pratchett) look down and like it.
Actually amazes me how many Pro Putin/Russian Supporters/Sympathizers who have infested this website compared to Ukranian Resistance Supporters after all this is an illegal war Putin is conducting with likely consequences if their is evidence of unjustified civilian deaths.
Maybe Gagarin, Stef and In Vino are actually stationed in Moscow ?
100% – If they hate the West so much they should fuck off to Russia (and try voicing any disaffection over there) . . novichoked by lunchtime.
Whereas here we are gagged by your infantile level of debate.
“If you don’t like our one-eyed propaganda, go and live in Russia.” Which kindergarten were you educated in?
Mission Bay Kindergarten – shit I miss the compulsory sleep on the mat in the early afternoon . .
DId China use covid 19 as a germ warfare, and the Qnon movement introduce fear and crazy ideas to the world regarding Democrat politics there was a worldwide sweep of Russian autocratic ideals with the aide of Donald Trump and the radical arm of the Republican party, the uprising of rioting and anti democracy around the world, driven to keep the world busy with a chaos theory? I believe that the War with Ukraine was in the wind since Putin made himself Zsar of Russia he fixes his election so like a true psychopath and dictator he poisons any one who runs against him, He must be stopped because like all dictators Hitler,Sadam Hussain, Idi Amin, Philpot etc etc etc this should make the world sit up and take notice remember China and Korea are allies to Putin something to ponder about people This war was eminent since Putin became king of Russia, We need to support the Ukraine with weapons and support and pray for the rest of the world.