Political prediction: Trump’s failed January coup is still continuing and will continue until its goals are achieved.
New Years Day is the day for making predictions about the significant events of the coming year.
Stuff Journalists make only one prediction about significant international political developments.
This is it:
- The US Democrats lose full control of Congress, either by losing the House, just a single Senate seat (maybe Nevada), or both. This hobbles the Joe Biden presidency.
Apart from the above single paragraph, Stuff’s political prognosticators narrowly confine themselves to making, (mostly), safe and inconsequential predictions about New Zealand political developments.
The Stuff journalists don’t venture to make any predictions about the future of a ‘hobbled’ Biden Presidency for the US and the world.
If history is any indication, I predict that the violent Far Right coup attempt to reinstate Donald Trump as president in January 2031 is a precurser of things to come.
Inside Trump’s failed coup.
Among the Insurrectionists
By the end of President Donald Trump’s crusade against American democracy—after a relentless deployment of propaganda, demagoguery, intimidation, and fearmongering aimed at persuading as many Americans as possible to repudiate their country’s foundational principles—a single word [bullshit] sufficed to nudge his most fanatical supporters into open insurrection…..
Trump said. “…..We’re going to have to fight much harder. And Mike Pence is going to have to come through for us.”
….a hundred and forty Republican representatives—two-thirds of the caucus—had said that they would formally object to the certification of several swing states. Fourteen Republican senators, led by Josh Hawley, of Missouri, and Ted Cruz, of Texas, had joined the effort. The lawmakers lacked the authority to overturn the election, but Trump and his allies had concocted a fantastical alternative: Pence, as the presiding officer of the Senate, could single-handedly nullify votes from states that Biden had won….
…..“After this, we’re going to walk down, and I’ll be there with you,” Trump told the crowd. The people around me exchanged looks of astonishment and delight. “We’re going to walk down to the Capitol, and we’re going to cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women….
….a man in a cowboy hat, posing for a photograph, lifted his jacket to reveal a revolver tucked into his waistband. Other Trump supporters had Tasers, baseball bats, and truncheons. I saw one man holding a coiled noose…..
….The Capitol siege was so violent and chaotic that it has been hard to discern the specific political agendas of its various participants. Many of them, however, went to D.C. for two previous events, which were more clarifying. On November 14th, tens of thousands of Republicans, convinced that the Democrats had subverted the will of the people in what amounted to a bloodless coup, marched to the Supreme Court, demanding that it overturn the election.
…..a large contingent of Proud Boys marched by. Members from Illinois, Pennsylvania, Oregon, California, and elsewhere were easy to identify. Most were dressed in the organization’s black-and-yellow colors. Some had “rwds”—Right-Wing Death Squad—hats and patches; others wore balaclavas, kilts, hockey masks, or batting helmets. One man was wearing a T-shirt with an image of South American dissidents being thrown out of a helicopter and the words “pinochet did nothing wrong!” Another T-shirt featured a Nazi eagle perched on a fasces, below the acronym “6mwe”—Six Million Wasn’t Enough—a reference to the number of Jews slaughtered in the Holocaust.
Many of the Proud Boys were drunk. At around nine-thirty that morning, I’d stopped by Harry’s Pub, a dive bar close to Freedom Plaza, and found the street outside filled with men drinking Budweiser and White Claw. “We are going to own this town!” one of them howled. At the November 14th rally, clashes between the Proud Boys and antifascists had left a number of people injured. Although most of the fights I witnessed then had been instigated by the Proud Boys, Trump had tweeted, “ANTIFA SCUM ran for the hills today when they tried attacking the people at the Trump Rally, because those people aggressively fought back.”
I am at no risk of infringing Godwin’s Law to state; Trump’s violent failed January 2021 Plot is directly comparable* to Hitler’s November 1923 violent failed Beer Hall Putsch.
As the world knows, Hitler’s Beer Hall Putsch was a precurser to the German Nazis seizing power by other means.
If history is any guide, I predict that future US elections will be marked by a Republican campaign of voter deregistration, violent racist intimidation of Black and Latino voters, multiple legal challenges of electoral results, and political pressure on electoral authorities. all to deliver the wanted result, Republican Party electoral gains right across the board.
Tied with Democratic Party vaccillation and backdown, Trump’s fascist style anti-democratic tactics and manipulation, promise the Republican Party electoral gains across the board.
I predict that The GOP will fully back Donald Trump’s far right politics through 2021 and into the foreseeable future.
I predict that the Biden adminsitration will enjoy only one term in office before being ousted, (by fair means, or foul), by a Far Right Republican administration.
I predict that democratic countries allied to America including New Zealand will not raise any meaningful objections to the undemocratic Far Right seizure of political power in the US, and we will continue with full diplomatic, military and secret service links with the US with consequences for us all.
Pat O’Dea is a unionist and human rights activist.