GUEST BLOG: Pat O’Dea – Trump’s failed coup will continue to victory


Political prediction: Trump’s failed January coup is still continuing and will continue until its goals are achieved.

New Years Day is the day for making predictions about the significant events of the coming year. Journalists have compiled a list of their 20 political predictions for 2022

Of the 20 political predictions, 19 are about national political developments.

Stuff Journalists make only one prediction about significant international political developments.

This is it:

  • The US Democrats lose full control of Congress, either by losing the House, just a single Senate seat (maybe Nevada), or both. This hobbles the Joe Biden presidency.

Apart from the above single paragraph, Stuff’s political prognosticators narrowly confine themselves to making, (mostly), safe and inconsequential predictions about New Zealand political developments.

The Stuff journalists don’t venture to make any predictions about the future of a ‘hobbled’ Biden Presidency for the US and the world.

To fill this vacuume of political prediction left by the journos; I would like to venture to predict that the Democrat’s failure to fully deliver on Joe Biden’s promised ‘Build Back Better’ program, will lead to popular disillusionment with politics by American voters. This disalusionment will be to the benefit of the American Far Right, in particular Trump populist Far Right politics.

If history is any indication, I predict that the violent Far Right coup attempt to reinstate Donald Trump as president in January 2031 is a precurser of things to come.

Inside Trump’s failed coup.

TDB Recommends
The following is a chilling, blow by blow account, of the Trump stolen election conspiracy, the identities and personalities of Trump’s fellow Far Right conspirators, detailing their activities carried out, during, and leading into, their attempted coup.

Among the Insurrectionists

The Capitol was breached by Trump supporters who had been declaring, at rally after rally, that they would go to violent lengths to keep the President in power. A chronicle of an attack foretold.

By the end of President Donald Trump’s crusade against American democracy—after a relentless deployment of propaganda, demagoguery, intimidation, and fearmongering aimed at persuading as many Americans as possible to repudiate their country’s foundational principles—a single word [bullshit] sufficed to nudge his most fanatical supporters into open insurrection….. 

Trump said. “…..We’re going to have to fight much harder. And Mike Pence is going to have to come through for us.”

….a hundred and forty Republican representatives—two-thirds of the caucus—had said that they would formally object to the certification of several swing states. Fourteen Republican senators, led by Josh Hawley, of Missouri, and Ted Cruz, of Texas, had joined the effort. The lawmakers lacked the authority to overturn the election, but Trump and his allies had concocted a fantastical alternative: Pence, as the presiding officer of the Senate, could single-handedly nullify votes from states that Biden had won….

…..“After this, we’re going to walk down, and I’ll be there with you,” Trump told the crowd. The people around me exchanged looks of astonishment and delight. “We’re going to walk down to the Capitol, and we’re going to cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women….

…you’ll never take back our country with weakness. You have to show strength.”
….On the Mall, a makeshift wooden gallows, with stairs and a rope, had been constructed near a statue of Ulysses S. Grant. Some of the marchers nearby carried Confederate flags. Up ahead, the dull thud of stun grenades could be heard, accompanied by bright flashes….

….a man in a cowboy hat, posing for a photograph, lifted his jacket to reveal a revolver tucked into his waistband. Other Trump supporters had Tasers, baseball bats, and truncheons. I saw one man holding a coiled noose…..

….The Capitol siege was so violent and chaotic that it has been hard to discern the specific political agendas of its various participants. Many of them, however, went to D.C. for two previous events, which were more clarifying. On November 14th, tens of thousands of Republicans, convinced that the Democrats had subverted the will of the people in what amounted to a bloodless coup, marched to the Supreme Court, demanding that it overturn the election.

…..a large contingent of Proud Boys marched by. Members from Illinois, Pennsylvania, Oregon, California, and elsewhere were easy to identify. Most were dressed in the organization’s black-and-yellow colors. Some had “rwds”—Right-Wing Death Squad—hats and patches; others wore balaclavas, kilts, hockey masks, or batting helmets. One man was wearing a T-shirt with an image of South American dissidents being thrown out of a helicopter and the words “pinochet did nothing wrong!” Another T-shirt featured a Nazi eagle perched on a fasces, below the acronym “6mwe”—Six Million Wasn’t Enough—a reference to the number of Jews slaughtered in the Holocaust.

Many of the Proud Boys were drunk. At around nine-thirty that morning, I’d stopped by Harry’s Pub, a dive bar close to Freedom Plaza, and found the street outside filled with men drinking Budweiser and White Claw. “We are going to own this town!” one of them howled. At the November 14th rally, clashes between the Proud Boys and antifascists had left a number of people injured. Although most of the fights I witnessed then had been instigated by the Proud Boys, Trump had tweeted, “ANTIFA SCUM ran for the hills today when they tried attacking the people at the Trump Rally, because those people aggressively fought back.”

I am at no risk of infringing Godwin’s Law to state; Trump’s violent failed January 2021 Plot is directly comparable* to Hitler’s November 1923 violent failed Beer Hall Putsch.

As the world knows, Hitler’s Beer Hall Putsch was a precurser to the German Nazis seizing power by other means.

If history is any guide, I predict that future US elections will be marked by a Republican campaign of voter deregistration, violent racist intimidation of Black and Latino voters, multiple legal challenges of electoral results, and political pressure on electoral authorities. all to deliver the wanted result, Republican Party electoral gains right across the board.

Tied with Democratic Party vaccillation and backdown, Trump’s fascist style anti-democratic tactics and manipulation, promise the Republican Party electoral gains across the board.

I predict that The GOP will fully back Donald Trump’s far right politics through 2021 and into the foreseeable future.

I predict that the Biden adminsitration will enjoy only one term in office before being ousted, (by fair means, or foul), by a Far Right Republican administration.

I predict that democratic countries allied to America including New Zealand will not raise any meaningful objections to the undemocratic Far Right seizure of political power in the US, and we will continue with full diplomatic, military and secret service links with the US with consequences for us all.

*(Even though these two attempted Far Right coups have in common that they both failed. The main difference between Hitler’s Beer Hall Putsch and and Trump’s attempted coup, is that Trump didn’t personally accompany his insurrectionists to take over of the US Capitol.  The other difference is that Trump’s insurrectionists were unsuccessful in catching and holding any US law makers).


Pat O’Dea is a unionist and human rights activist.


  1. Well what I think happened on Jan 6 was a protest against a not unreasonably perceived gerrymandered election. There was plenty being claimed by serious high profile personalities , and multiple court cases in process to give reason for people to suspect that the Democrats had done a wide range of things to change the way voting had previously been done in the US to their advantage, whatever a distant observer from here might decide was fair and right. Most Republican supporters and quite a number of democrat supporters stipp believe that that election was stolen.
    They mounted a protest without much planning or any clear organised and agreed objective.
    My prediction is that all the results will be as suggested here but without any abnormal (for America) amount of violence. The republicans will sweep the mid terms without any need to cheat and Biden of god forbid Kamala, will be as lame a duck as can be. Leaving “24 a walk in for Trump or whoever replaces him if he decides against running again.
    So we will see won’t we.
    D J S

    • “…..whatever a distant observer from here might decide was fair and right” David Stone

      We are indeed distant, why a lot of this post has quotes from an eye witness account that was as physically close to these events as possible.

      That these events are similar to the failed Beer Hall Putch, is my judgement of these reported events.

      “Well what I think happened on Jan 6 was a protest against a not unreasonably perceived gerrymandered election.” David Stone

      A “protest”?


      Trump’s insurrectionists [unlike Hitler’s insurrectionists], were not able to capture and hold at gunpoint any lawmakers, came down to luck and the bravery and quick thinking of badly outnumbered police and Capital Building security officers, more than any lack of resolve of the plotters.

      I have put up a credible blow by blow account by Luke Mogelson reporting from inside the assault on the US Capitol.

      I made my judgement based on Luke Mogelson’s account.

      D.S., just like me, you are a distant observer and have to back up your judgement of these events from those who were there.

      D.S. If you have any other account from [anyone] to back your judgement that this was a “protest’ and not a coup attempt. Put it up. Let’s see if we can back your judgement.

    • Trump was responsible for the deaths of people at the “protest”.
      There was no “cheating”, Trumps hand picked judiciary confirmed this. Why are people so brainwashed by the Qanon theory?
      If you believe Biden cheated, prove it?
      My prediction is Trump will be imprisoned by 2024.

    • All court cases dismissed which leaves your theories in tatters. None of your “theories” or accusations have been proven. However in order to promote fairness David Stone, I’m happy for you to provide the evidence(not heresay) so as I can be corrected. It’s not unreasonable to perceive you have made up your mind when you choose words like cheating( without evidence)in the same sentence with Biden and using words like “god forbid Kamala”. This is where critical thinking is imperative, rather than your personal dislike of Biden and Kamala.

      • Could you perhaps site some of those “dismissed” court cases and what the verdicts were? because what I have read though it was a while ago now , and I haven’t bookmarked anything, is that no court has ever been prepared to hear any of the cases brought, claiming a lack of jurisdiction to make a judgement.
        All we have on either side of this debate is hearsay. If anyone on either side of the issue could produce incontestable evidence it would not be an issue of discussion.
        D J S

          • “Similarly, on Dec. 12, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected a long-shot lawsuit by the state of Texas and backed by Trump”
            “Rejecting” or “dismissing” law suits is not hearing them by definition. The judiciary has avoided looking at any of the complaints by one means or another.
            I can see the reasoning behind the courts taking this approach as they probably see preserving the appearance of a viable democracy is more important than actually having one. Probably in the hope that the system can be fixed (repaired) to restore free and fair elections before the next one is run. The repercussions of a fair trial that established that at least a part of the process was rigged would collapse the whole idea that the USA is the pillar of world democracy and do untold damage to her international standing as well as domestic confidence.
            The polling that suggests over 70% of Republican voters and if I remember right 20% of Democrat voters now believe the election was stolen would seem to say that the judiciary have been mistaken in that responce and that they woul have served the perception of election integrity much better to have allowed some of those cases to proceed even if the did prove fraud. At least it would have shown that there was ab ackup legal system that worked. As it is both the electoral system and the legal system in America look decidedly corrupt.
            There is much about the process , like making people in poor and black communities wait in queues for hours when they need to be at work in Republican controlled states that isn’t democratic either.
            D J S
            D J S

            • So very many hypotheticals, however the overall conclusion is that the election like supposedly every other was fair unless of course any Republican presidency was also won by cheating. I guess we’ll never ever know.

  2. ‘Well what I think happened on Jan 6 was a protest against a not unreasonably perceived gerrymandered election.”

    Lols. The claim wasn’t gerrymandering, it was fraud. You can’t gerrymander a presidential election.

    Your perception isn’t evidence.

    • “Comparing Donald Trump with Adolf Hitler is obscene” Jeremy

      I agree.

      Hitler began a world war a conflict in which more than 60 million people were killed, while simultaneously engaging in a sytematic genocide on the home front and territories under German control that killed more than 16 million, civilians.

      None of this is in any way comparable to anything that Donald Trump has done.

      Nore was it anything that Hitler had done when he staged his attempted coup in November 1923.

      I was comparing Hitler’s early first attempt to sieze power illegitimately in November 1923, to Trump’s attempt to seize power illegitimately, 1n January 2021, which you have called “a protest”.

      This so called protest shared many of the features of Hitler’s 1923 Putsch, including an attempt to capture and hold Lawmakers to get them to bend to their will.*

      Do you deny this fact?

      They say history never repeats. It is up to all of us to make sure that it doesn’t.

      It is all about potentialities.

      *(to pressure them to annul the Biden electoral win and reinstall Trump as president).

      • I don’t agree with your premise.
        The protest in the United States in no way compares so there are no facts for me to deny.
        Pleased we agree on something ie comparing Trump with Hitler is obscene.
        Must point out I am not a Trump supporter.
        Anyway have a good 2022.

        • Pat O’Dea
          “Here is a question for you Jeremy.”

          “Do you think Hitler’s Beer Hall Putsch was a protest?”

          “The protest in the United States in no way compares so there are no facts for me to deny.”

          Jeremy, your so called ‘protesters’ carried zip ties to secure hostages. Is a verifiable fact. Do you deny that fact?

          Jeremy your so called ‘protesters’ failed in their intention of capturing US law makers and hold them to get them to bend to their demands. Is a fact. Do you deny it?

          Hitler’s insurectionists achieved their intention of capturing German law makers and hold them to get them to bend to their demands. Is a fact. Do you deny it?

          Kahr, General von Lossow (leader of the army in Bavaria) and Colonel von Seisser were locked in a back room. They were forced to publically announce their support for the Nazis.
          Hitler left the beer hall in order to oversee clashes between the SA and the German army elsewhere in Munich
          Ludendorff allowed the politicians to leave the beer hall.
          This was a mistake as they immediately renounced support for the Nazis.

          Jeremy, I asked you if you considered Hitler’s Beer Hall Putsch a protest? 

          You dodged the question, claiming that the two attempted failed plots were not comparable.

          They are comparable in several major ways.

          The two plots are comparable in that they both sought to impose a far right administration of their choice.

          The two events are comparable in that they both sought to capture lawmakers to force them to their will.

          They are comparable in that people, (police and attackers), died in the attempt.

          The two events are comparable in that they both failed.

          They are comparable in that despite failure, the two major protagonists were still determined to gain power.

          As you can see Jeremy, there are lots of facts for you to deny.

            • Pat O’Dea
              “…there are lots of facts for you to deny.”


              A very concise rebutttal there, Jeremy.

              Would you care to expand on it?

              Is it your opinion, that there are not, “…lots of facts for you to deny”?

              Is it your opinion that there are no facts at all in common between the two attacks?

              If the former is your answer, I might ask you what are the comparable facts that you do deny?

              If you deny all the facts I won’t bother you again.

              As the saying goes, “Nuff said”.

              If you choose not to give a rational determination either way, will of course speak volumes.

  3. Trump’s ‘greatest crime’ was to be neither of the two choices provided by the ruling classes.

    Many other countries around the world have made that mistake and there is a very long, well documented history of those people being removed by any means possible. It is not a long stretch to believe that they did the same in their own country.

    I believe Trump is a terrible person (for many well documented reasons). I wouldn’t haven’t voted for him (or Hilary), but that doesn’t mean I am gullible enough to believe the propaganda.

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