The Daily Blog Geopolitical Predictions 2022


If you thought 2021 was bad, it’s nothing compared to the perfect storm of black swans looking to land in 2022.

A culmination of bubbles look set to pop in ways that could rapidly destabilize everyone and everything.

Here are the International TDB political predictions 2022.

China – All eyes will be on China.

Xi is moving from crazed dictator into crazed God mode.

Our complex relationship with China is actually very simple. We are desperate to sell basic bitch milk powder and China is rich enough to exploit our desperation in the hope of gaining what they really want – our water.

China buys the National Party out and buys the Labour Party out so as to keep their interests safe.

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Culturally National never talk about Chinese influence because their farmer, banker and speculator voters need that Chinese money and the Left don’t talk about Chinese influence because it’s xenophobic.

China’s cultural and economics crackdowns are increasingly repressive and their ongoing saber rattling over Hong Kong and Taiwan alongside their rapid military deployment and weapon upgrades all point to a China becoming drunk on their own power.

We need to decouple urgently from China economically while acknowledging China’s main influence in our country is through intimidation of their diaspora living here. As the recent investigation into Chinese spies in our Universities highlights, NZ culture needs to embrace and connect with our Chinese-New Zealand community so that they feel more loved by us than fear CCP activists.

Economically China is in deep trouble with EverGrande,  Kaisa, and now the Shimao Group all imploding. Industrial profit growth has tumbled and China’s zero tolerance of Covid continues to shut down ports and exacerbate supply chain stresses.
To distract from the economic slump expect aggressive symbolic acts.

With the Winter Olympics in February, a symbolic and harsh crack down on Hong Kong will reassert the CCPs authority, but expect that after February. They would be mad to do it before the Olympics. Any move into Hong Kong will be at the same time as any invasion of the Ukraine by Putin.

In terms of a serious attack on Taiwan, my guess is Xi will wait until the CCPs 20th conference in November to try any possible invasion. If he is granted the his powers of Mao, all bets are off the table.

China has a huge advantage with hypersonic missiles, any invasion of Taiwan will use these as a warning to America.

Expect China to use its failing economic environment to trade punish critical countries, as the weakest member of 5 Eyes, NZ will be very vulnerable to this.

Continuing questions over the Covid lab leak theory will not go away.
America – 2021 started with Trump attempting a coup at the Capital Building and spent the rest of the year being protected by Fox News Republicans from being held to account. Biden’s appalling handling of Afghanistan and his inability to get meaningful change through because his own Party is blocking policy has combined at a time when America is horribly divided over Covid mandates.
Legendary Democrat strategist James Carville blames “stupid wokeness” and is critical of defund the Police and wanting to remove Abraham Lincoln’s name from schools. He argues most people are more concerned with economics than social justice mantras that come across as cult like to the middle voter.
The Virginia Gubernatorial win for the Republicans in late 2021 is a bellwether for the midterms in November which looks likely to hand the Republicans the House of Representatives, this will be a dangerous precondition for Trump’s 2024 run.
If you look at who Trump is endorsing, there are many low level electoral scrutineers who he could call upon to defer a result to the House of Representatives if he alleges electoral fraud.
This is surely the danger.
I think Trump intends to steal the 2024 election by calling on election scrutineers to defer the result to the House where Republicans have a midterm majority and sends the Democrats onto the streets in rage. Trump will use that violence to justify martial law and an endless reign.
Abortion rights are about to be damaged thanks to Trump’s stacking of Judges.
Think Handmaid’s Tale meets Chucky.
Russia – If Putin invades Ukraine it will be after the Winter Olympics so that Xi can crack down on Hong Kong at the same time. It looks from the build up of 175 000 troops on the Ukrainian border that any attack will be to damage and destroy Ukrainian military assets as opposed to a long standing occupation and territory grab. Putin will taunt Europe via their new dependence on Russian gas. Expect a lot more cyber attacks.
Israel – Building more settlements on the Golan Heights will intensify anger alongside their usual brutality over the Palestinians, but the big issue will be if they launch a preemptive strike against Iran as they race towards building their first nuke. If they do, this will be a spark to a far larger eruption of violence in the middle east.
Australia – Bush fire season could see NZ skies glowing orange again as extra rain fall since the last catastrophic bush fires now become kindling for a new heat wave.
Afghanistan – The Taliban’s main source of income is heroin, expect to see a tsunami of high quality cheap smack arriving into Europe creating  addiction misery and overdoses. As the country implodes, expect waves of refugees fleeing.
Global economy – Covid has seen the main banks of the West sink trillions more into quantitive easing to deal with the economic whiplash the pandemic has created and in NZ we saw with the pumping of billions into the pockets of property speculators how our own house prices have skyrocketed.

This game of printing money to pump into property and stock market speculation to create a false illusion of wealth can continue playing as long as hyper inflation doesn’t overturn the apple cart.

But what happens if it does?

What happens if hyper inflation does suddenly explode out of nowhere?

To date all the inflationary pressures caused by this mass printing has led to driving up property prices and stock markets without touching the essentials and basics of life, but one of the impacts of Covid has been to shut down the global supply chains which is now creating scarcity of products that can’t get to market because they are bottlenecked at a Port.

This seems insanely dangerous because all those hyper inflation pressures will immediately jump to the very basics everyone uses.

Your Kiwisaver going up and your property value climbing is one thing, paying $15 for a loaf of bread and $20 for milk is completely another.

To date the cost rises have been in things poor people have to pay, transport, rent and gas. That means food will be cut, hungry people get angry quickly.

After every great pandemic throughout history, the peasant revolt in the 1300s, the London riots of the 1600s and the social unrest right after the Influenza pandemic of 1918, society always goes through intense social change brought on by the economic collapse lockdowns generate.

If the bottlenecks of supply chains are blocked unleashing a tsunami of hyper inflation on the goods everyone requires for life, Central Banks will have no choice but to lift interest rates to desperately attempt to curtail that hyper inflation, which of course will mean the ocean of low interest debt that has been created to fuel hyper speculation will suddenly start feeling the true gravity of trillions in borrowing.

This is the new ‘normal’. Constant eruptions of external global disruptions that cause widespread damage.  The climate crisis will simply exacurbate these economic meltdowns.

Curveball prediction: Technology breakthroughs – AI, quantum computing, hypersonic missiles and Space weapons are all on the agenda as America, Russia and China all compete for supremacy. Expect more robots with guns.
Curveball prediction: Queen dying – If the Queen dies it will cause a lot of reflection in the Commonwealth towards Republicanism. Expect Charles to seize the Throne and be a far more radical environmental  voice than his Mother. The only open question is how Megan Markle will manage to make it all about her.
Curveball prediction: UFOs – We saw crazy unexplainable footage of UFOs this year – any new revelations will force the planet to acknowledge we are not alone. This could turn everything on its head.



Shit is going to get way worse in 2022.

With China our new Economic Overlord, what hurts them hurts us.

The building blocks of globalized free market lowest cost capitalism is fracturing as the model can’t keep up with demand while decarbonising.

Those fractures are becoming impossible to ignore…

Chinese magnesium shortage: Global car industry to grind to a halt within weeks amid ‘catastrophic’ halt

The world’s largest carmakers and other users of aluminium could be forced to halt production within weeks amid a “catastrophic” shortage of magnesium across Europe.

Magnesium is a key material used in the production of aluminium alloys, which are used in everything from car parts to building materials and food packaging.

China has a near-monopoly on global magnesium manufacturing, accounting for 87 per cent of production, but the Chinese government’s efforts to reduce domestic power consumption amid rising energy prices have slowed output to a trickle since September 20.

In Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces, the world’s main magnesium production hubs, 25 plants had to shut down and five further plants slashed production by 50 per cent as a result of the power cuts.

…if China’s domestic real estate bubble implodes, investors with external holdings may have to sell enmasse causing a glut.

How much of NZs housing market consists of Chinese speculators?

Looks like we might find out.

The economic threats makes the current sabre rattling military threats look friendly.

Will China Really Invade Taiwan?

In March, Adm. Philip Davidson, the outgoing commander of U.S. military forces in the Pacific, told a Senate panel that China posed a “manifest” threat of invading Taiwan “in the next six years.”

No senior official had ever issued such a specific or urgent warning about the fate of the tiny democratic island 100 miles off of China’s eastern coast. But since Davidson’s testimony, boatloads of military officers, active and retired, have sounded similar alarm bells. Some congressmen, such as Republican  Sen. Tom Cotton, have even called for recognizing Taiwan as an independent nation and making NATO-like commitments to defend it from invasion—a step that would reverse 42 years of U.S. policy, further destabilize relations with China, and possibly precipitate war.

At the same time, a debate has erupted among more scholarly analysts over whether China’s Communist leaders really want to invade Taiwan—and, if they do, whether the Chinese military is capable of doing so now or in the near future. With few exceptions, the pessimists tend to be military officers, who measure the balance of power by which side has more or less of what sorts of weapons systems, while the less-panicked tend to be experts on China’s history and politics who view the statistics in a broader context.

Hyper inflation, economic meltdown and a planet stumbling from a global pandemic that originated in China.

Look at this…

…In 2010, the 388 richest individuals owned more wealth than half of the entire human population on Earth

By 2015, this number was reduced to only 62 individuals

In 2018, it was 42

In 2019, it was down to only 26 individuals who own more wealth than 3.8 billion people.

And now in 2021, 20 people own more than 50% of the entire planet.

This isn’t democracy, this is a feudal plutocracy on a burning Earth!

These are all the ingredients for conflict and a hot war.

One of the most concerning elements of all of this occurred before the US election when Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, contacted his a Chinese to tell them America would not attack them.

If China was convinced Trump wanted a war in 2020, they will certainly think he’ll start one in 2024. Their hawks will be demanding force before then.

Right now. All roads lead to war, economic Armageddon and environmental meltdown.

Here’s Tom with the weather.

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  1. See? There ya go. You fuck it up in the fourth paragraph.
    “Culturally National never talk about Chinese influence because their farmer, banker and speculator voters need that Chinese money and the Left don’t talk about Chinese influence because it’s xenophobic.”
    You have no idea what a farmer is or does do you? You live in tired, drab little Auckland and think it’s the centre of the Universe.
    @ MB. You’re awesome. I like you. I really do. But man do you need to get out into where AO/NZ’s income, not to mention our food, comes from.
    Do you not read what I have to write? Do you not yet realise that the Natzo’s are our farmers worst fucking enemy DESPITE what the natzo fucks sell you as the normal-normal?
    Dairying, AKA cowsploitation, ISN’T farming. Dairying is simply plonking a cow on a paddock, getting a vet to ram bull sperm up her what’s it, out pops a calf, the wee bulls are ground up into mince for the barbi and the heifers are kept permanently pregnant so you can have milk for the fucking lattes dahlings!
    The good thing is that if the opportunistic Chinese stop buying our cows white blood cells we won’t starve because our farmers can feed forty million people so you wrote here a number of times.

    • hey countryboy, we do read what you write and you’re always bang on the money about farming practices and farmer exploitation by bankers, traders and marketing boards, all manned by the usual wine-quaffing time travellers (there’s my prediction for 2022, Martyn: time will be the last commodification outrage by Suisse bank @ Cern )
      So where are we? Aotearoa cannot exist with the band of merries who relocate from, well, anywhere, really, and continue to swell the ranks of the “public service” which collects your taxes. You know, like the postmaster general from the UK who fucked up so many people’s lives for years, denying their dodgy software which I’m sure is used here (can’t verify, it’s called Horizons or New Horizon’s Software..)
      I’m posting this now because I haven’t yet learned to use the notepad.
      We love you, tc

      • Software can be hard in UK.
        Bad software sent postal workers to jail, because no one … › uk-post-office-software-bu…
        23/04/2021 — Data from a computer system used by the UK Post Office was used to convict … This led to some local postmasters being convicted of crimes, . Jul.22/21
        Post Office scandal: What the Horizon saga is all about

        But hey the Maxwell case is juicier. And Farage is still on the rampage.
        And Boris is getting a haircut maybe, Important things to keep up with. (Not to mention Julian Assange, so I won’t.)

  2. What about ACT raising its political share to 20% in ’22 and ’23?
    Reduce business tax to 20%, reduce personal tax to 20% and have GST at 20%.
    This will put the boot firmly on the throat of National and finish the job started by Richard Prebble and Roger Douglas back in 1984.
    ACT’s 20% is ’22 and yellow is the new black!
    And what about a Capital Gains tax?

  3. Russia wont invade Ukraine. Whilst we have been mind fucked by woke wankery, Covid madness and any amount of other PMC Listener readers pet paranoias, our eyes have been averted from the Cuban Missile Crisis v2. The US has pushed its military presence via NATO and weapons deployment to Ukraine via “contractors” etc up to the Russian borders. If this gets out of hand nukes will fly. Wheres a Kennedy when you need him?

    • Kennedy’s counterpart is in power in Moscow isnt’ he. And just as forthright .
      China won’t attack Taiwan either. They are winning the peace ; why would they want a war? It’s the losers of the peace that need watching and we don’t want to be their obedient puppies.
      D J S

    • Nah the second missile crisis will be focussed on Taiwan. GOP hawks promote recognition of Taiwan and putting nuclear warheads on the island. Old coot has no nerve though.

    • Zelensky, the unpopular clown president of Ukraine, thanks to the neocon driven anti-democratic coup cheered on by the west ,,,,

      Zelensky enabled by the supply of usa and NATO weapons, and driven by his desperation of being a failed unpopular politician going down the drain may well launch an attack on the Donbass and Donesk provinces who refused to recognize or be ruled by the Neo-facist/neocon regime that Zelensky fronts…..

      …. Martyns prediction should have been whether or not the desperate clown, with neocon support,,, launches a war which as Martyn correctly predicts will see the Ukraine army destroyed by Russia in a matter of days.

      Martyn is right to link Ukraine and Taiwan together ,,, but is fingering the wrong protagonists.

      Neocons and mad military men would take us into nuclear war because in their view their failure,,,, is a worse alternative.

      Drop nukes or lose face ,,,

      And while on the subject of crazy dangerous usa politics and policy ,,, that ‘New Zealander’ Peter Thiel is throwing large amounts of money at the worst of them ….

      “Thiel’s only checks to candidates this cycle have gone to Tom Cotton, another ambitious, Harvard-educated GOP senator, and Kobach. Unlike Hawley, though, Kobach has barely, if ever, weighed in on tech issues.

      But part of their alliance can be explained by more personal reasons. A key lubricant binding Thiel to his new candidate is Ann Coulter, the conservative provocateur who last week called Democrats the “antifa party.” She is close with Thiel, and is a Kobach super-fan.”

        • no surprise look at the historical record of ukrainian atrocities against russians, poles and jews, the holdomor was evil but everyone literally every single person in eastern europe can say ‘well your grandad fucked my grandads prize goat’ it doesn’t get anyone anywhere.

  4. How many black swans have you ever watched, Martyn? Another great, explosive metaphor, but in fact they don’t often choose to ‘land’. They glide in, air-brake, then water-ski across a lake surface.
    Did sea-planes ‘land’ on the waters of Waitemata Harbour?
    I should have hauled you up long ago when I think I recall you writing about black swans coming home to roost…
    I have never seen any swan – black or white – roosting. They don’t.
    Please delete this comment, but put your embarrassing swan metaphor in the same bin as that illogical prenatal ward thing.
    Swans are aquatic birds. (I think they can manage to land on grass, but prefer not to.)
    Agree otherwise, but don’t like embarrassing errors.

  5. Yeah well so what?,… you’ve all been warned.

    Revelation 6:6
    New International Version

    Then I heard what sounded like a voice among the four living creatures, saying, “Two pounds of wheat for a day’s wages, and six pounds of barley for a day’s wages, and do not damage the oil and the wine!”

    The Sixth Trumpet

    So the four angels who had been prepared for this hour and day and month and year were released to kill a third of mankind. And the number of mounted troops was two hundred million; I heard their number. Now the horses and riders in my vision looked like this: The riders had breastplates the colors of fire, sapphire, and sulfur. The heads of the horses were like the heads of lions, and out of their mouths proceeded fire, smoke, and sulfur.…
    Berean Study Bible

    And that army came from the far east, just after Magog [ from the north , Russia?] attacked Israel on the plains of Megiddo [Armageddon]. If you look at satellite pictures from China and Tibet, you see a clear road [upgraded by China years ago now to a class A road capable of supporting heavy tanks at least to India’s borders] that stretches from Tibet across India , West Pakistan, Iraq and Iran clear through to the plains of Megiddo at Israel’s borders [ Armageddon]. Even Napoléon recognized the sheer strategic value of that area as a major battlefield.

    All of this has been said before 2000 and more years ago but you and your dumb postmodern hedonism were either too lazy or thick to receive it. You would prefer believing we came from some Darwinian primeval soup tadpole than believing human beings were created as special as is all creation than to have the guts to admit that there is a God and that maybe, – just maybe,… He requires but yet a few concessions to be aligned in His accordance. I guess many Professors from the 19th century onwards made huge pay packets along with geologists and archeologist’s and paleontologists from this racket. And thus the narrative has been pushed and accepted as ‘fact’ when it is, in fact, only a ‘ theory’. According to them themselves.

    Matthew 13:13

    New International Version
    ”This is why I speak to them in parables: “Though seeing, they do not see; though hearing, they do not hear or understand”.

    Another scripture;

    Matthew 11:28-30
    New International Version

    “Come to me, all you who are weary and burdened, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you and learn from me, for I am gentle and humble in heart, and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy and my burden is light.”

    Does that sound like the God of hate towards them ‘commies’ and their pinko policy’s? No !. Its pretty generic and all encompassing to all humankind. I find I have much affinity with certain communist ideals, less the brutal practical outworkings of them. Particularly of many of the historical examples, but I chalk it up to those figures as having not started their foundations on stable ground. What would it have been like if they had started their programs of social reforms on the simple aspects of love, respect and concern for all people – instead of those who simply agreed with them out of fear or want of position? Human beings, left to their own devices, invariably screw it up.

    I do it myself. I screw things up. I don’t know how to end this, I’m guilty as charged, like all of us, but I sure am glad I’ve got someone watching my back who forgives me and in who I can trust.

    Larry Norman – Why Don’t You Look Into Jesus? – [Janis Joplin Version] – 1972

    And my personal favourite;

    I Am The Six O’Clock News – Only Visiting This Planet (1972)

  6. China won’t touch Taiwan.
    Their sabre rattling is just for show to distract their people from their own economic plight. The Straits of Formosa are 150km wide and regardless of the capability of the Chinese military, they would lose a million men or more in the sea before they landed. Sure they could attack the place and turn it into a smoking ruin but what’s the point of that? Chinese demographics (ie a lack of spare young men) and the consequences of subsequent trade sanctions will ensure they keep their hands off the place.

  7. Franks Predictions:

    US – GOP retake house and (narrowly) Senate. Old coot a lame duck President however GOP squander this by focussing on the issues of Trump 24 and Hunter Biden. Roe v Wade gets overturned dwarfing BLM as a protest. A Supreme Court justice retires/dies – GOP controlled Senate refuse to certify Biden’s replacemrnt.

    Australia – Slowmo gets a hammering in the election. Loses every state bar NSW. Dutton elected leader of the opposition proposes no entry to Aotearoans which is a hit with the Australian public. Despite Labour being the government moves further away from NZ in foreign policy focus.

    Europe – moves left. Moderates/globalists win all major Western Europe elections. Macron gets a second term. Eastern and south Eastern Europe reject trend and form a large bloc within the EU. Major riots/civil unrest in France and Italy force vaccine mandates to be dropped.

    UK – Borris gets rolled. Sajid Javid becomes first PM with Indian decent. Torries lose popularity but still the most popular party as UK labour still struggle with the left overs of the Corbyn purge and Tony Blair’s malignant influence. Deteriorating relations with Europe.

    Russia – got Europe by the balls. Develops Hypersonic missiles. Takes defacto control of Eastern Ukraine. Old coot huffs and puffs but does nothing. Conciliatory efforts into Eastern Europe. Further alignment with China and India.

    China – threatens but does nothing about Taiwan. Develops Hypersonic missiles. Suffers a significant slowdown of growth triggering worldwide economic recession. The truth about the origins of covid are established yet no one does nothing. Foreign policy dwarfed by domestic issues as the general populace becomes unruly.

    Covid – dies out (largely) by Northern hemisphere summer. New strains are even less virulent than Ominshambles. Big pharma scrutinised for their role over the last2 years. At least 2 traditional ‘colds’ get covid treatment and MIQ remains in NZ. Falchi gets impeached/jailed in under a GOP controlled Senate as the US links to Wuhan are further established.

    • Hi Frank. So if the Republicans control both the Senate and H.O.R are they able to push through their own legislative agenda or is that where the President still has the right to veto it?

      • Yes he has the right of veto – executive directive they call it. The courts can also strike it down as well as executive directives. SCOTUS is the final determining institution.

        What controlling the house means is the ability to summon and examine whereas the Senate nominates and confirms all appointments

  8. Don’t you mean a Khrushchev Nick J? The US threated war then had to make far larger compromises in secretly removing missiles from Italy and Turkey and give a promise not to attack Cuba. That was in light of the Bay of Pigs fiasco – another in the long line of US botch-ups. Khrushchev only had to agree to not have missiles based in Cuba. Obviously, in retrospect, the Russian Leader miscalculated. When did the US ever stick to its side of such agreements?

    • yup K saved JFKs butt by letting him save face by withdrawing US missiles from turkey at a later date(which was done with no fanfare) to be sure it suited them both but it wasn’t the western ‘victory’ that’s usually depicted but a good old fashioned quid pro quo.

    • AOM, you are correct except that Putin is already doing the Kruschev role. The US needs a Kennedy to do the right thing and back down whilst appearing to “win”. Sleepy Joe just aint it.

  9. NZ is becoming the polluter of choice in the Pacific 2022.

    Kiwi’s links to threat to crucial rainforest
    Newsroom Special Investigation: An Auckland property developer is involved in a company linked to carrying out deforestation in Indonesia, where virgin rainforest is being bulldozed to grow palm oil plantations. Watch Melanie Reid’s video story above.

    NZ also loves to import in harmful substances and cash businesses – as well as encouraging dishonest people to come here or people who live here go to dishonest businesses, and do any business they feel like to get ahead. Who cares if it harms others and pays not taxes, why work honestly here when crime is more profitable and you can afford a QC when getting caught and saying you have no money?

    Judge orders prison for Auckland businessman who imported black market cigarettes, drugs

    Globalism, the networking opportunity for harmful business practise and cheered on in every aspect in NZ.

  10. The final part about the concentration of wealth is really a story about the increase in asset prices. Just as homeowners in NZ have had a nominal increase in wealth, so have multibillionaires, whose wealth is often in companies on the NYSE.

    For instance Elon Musk (the wealthiest person in the world) now has wealth that is about the same as 10% of NZ’s total wealth. Which makes it rather unlikely that 20 people are as wealthy as 50% as the poorest people in the world. That would imply that NZ alone has 50% of the wealth of the 50% of the poorest people in the world.

    Is that credible? That two New Zealand’s (say NZ and Scotland) would be as wealthy as 50% of the world’s population.

  11. My prediction relates to genuine concern about the management of Covid at this time.

    I’m very much pro vaccination but smell rats big time. It is beyond doubt now that the Ministry of Health / Government are “fudging” the details of Covid numbers for whatever reason. The fact they are no longer being transparent with the all important numbers is cause for serious concern. Conspiracy theories come to life when people feel what they are being told amounts to creativity with truth from vested interest.

    First issue is the efficacy of the vaccine. We were told if you were double jabbed you are protected by around 90%. We were informed that fully vaccinated people can still contract the virus but they will get the milder version of Covid and will therefore avoid hospital admission. Many around the world feel the 90% vaccine efficacy number quoted is best case scenario and the true percentage is closer to 80%. That’s still a high number but it isn’t 90%. If the 90% number is best case scenario, why was it painted as undisputed fact? We are now told that a third jab will give you 70% protection against Omicron. Is that 70% number also a best case scenario number? Even if the answer is “no” the anti-vax brigade will be feeling more justified with their perspective than ever.

    Then comes Hospital admissions. Certain new catch phrases or terminology give me zero confidence. Two that come straight to mind are “out of an abundance of caution”……and “7 day rolling average”. Both are clearly designed for people to only interoperate data in the manner the informer wants you to interoperate it. I’m an adult and choose to hear the facts and form my own conclusion. I’m not a child in need of a picture of the sun to work out its a sunny day.

    The term 7 day rolling average was first used with our Covid response in around May 2020 to describe testing numbers. Family members in the health system told me testing is going to be a big problem on weekends due to salaried health workers not working weekends. That turned out to be accurate but was sold differently. The Ministry of Health actually stated there were less people out and about on weekends to be tested. I found the reality was the complete opposite. Soon after the 7 day rolling average terminology started being used. It clearly gives the Ministry of Health the ability to control and present numbers that tell the story the way they want it told.

    We have the same situation now with the way daily cases are quoted along with hospital admissions. A very important statistic people need to know about hospital admissions concerns the number that are fully vaccinated. Obviously if the number is high, people will question the efficacy of the vaccine which is not a situation the Ministry of Health wants. That coincides exactly with the change in the way they now report the numbers. Important aspects are now ambiguous and confusing. Some strongly feel that is by design. If they created ambiguity around who is eligible to be vaccinated, whose had just one dose, who had a dose x number of days ago etc etc you will create confusion. As a result when they tell you 39% of hospital admissions were fully vaccinated, the true number is almost certainly a different number.

    If 39% of Covid admissions to hospital are fully vaccinated what happened to the narrative of the vaccine preventing you contracting the more serious version of Covid? What would happen to vaccination compliance etc if that important aspect was……..incorrect? Is it a reasonable conclusion to form that this is the reason numbers are now being “fudged”? Anyone that ends up in hospital with Covid is clearly very ill.

    Then we move on to details being released to the media about people that have sadly and tragically died from Covid. These details have significant public interest but are now being very deliberately kept from the public. The Ministry of Health states the reason for this is the family seeking privacy. I call bullshit on that.

    The age, gender, race and any other health issues are all hugely important. The person’s name however is not relevant and I totally respect the families right to privacy in that area. During 2020 we were told chapter and verse about people who had succumbed to Covid. Most of those that passed away were in their 80’s and 90’s which gave the wrong message to some young people who felt only the elderly and sick were at risk from Covid.

    In December a person sadly passed away from Covid. The Ministry of Health stated they wouldn’t be releasing information to the media about the death as the family had requested privacy. I immediately asked how releasing the age, gender and vaccination status of the deceased would compromise the family privacy? It appeared to be yet another example of the Ministry of Health controlling the data and keeping the public of NZ in the dark. The next Covid related death had the same blocking out of details and again privacy was cited as the reason. I question why details of every Covid death were released in 2020 yet all of a sudden we had families seeking privacy and no details being released? I wonder what question(s) the Ministry of Health are asking the families to have them wishing to block out all details? Are they just being asked about suppressing the name of the deceased and then the M.O.H using that as license to block out all details? Yesterday the 2nd of January we were told of two further Covid deaths by the Ministry of Health. All details of both deceased were withheld and again the Ministry of Health cited “Privacy”.

    It appears at the very time numbers are being fudged more than ever, we are now having important data withheld. Not a good combination.

    We all know that the highly transmissible Omicron variant is on our doorstep and is going to explode into our communities at any time if it hasn’t started already. We also know there are more people out and about around NZ now than at any time since the pandemic arrived here. We also know there is less apatite for Covid restrictions now than at any time since March 2020. What we also know is that vaccine compliance and respect / trust for the rules put in place are critically important.

    You only need to be told one load of highly dubious information to start questioning all information coming from that same source. We have been routinely told our Hospitals are in a strong position to deal with any Covid outbreak. I respectfully suggest that anyone who actually believes that total BS would very likely also still believe in the tooth fairy and unicorns. Our hospitals are on standby… be overwhelmed. They are already routinely understaffed hence nurse strikes against unsafe working conditions etc. When Omicron hits and hospital admissions increase we will also see more and more medical staff contracting the disease and having to isolate. Then what?

    Big numbers of Omicron in the community here is only days away. I can empathetically guarantee we will not get through January without an Omicron community outbreak and resulting restrictions. Tragically, this is going to unfold at exactly the same time apatite for restrictions and trust in health officials is reaching new lows.


    • simples the LINOs have caved to business and completely given up but still want to indulge in public handwringing photo calls.. hence the comical leniency to regulation violators and the PRO-COVID mob, they want some tough quotes for future historians to read in the files, whilst in reality declaring open season…FFS just be honest with us.

    • The efficacy figure commonly used is a relative risk calculated figure. This figure, to put it crudely, is a calculation between the level of protection a vaccine may offer between a vaccinated and an unvaccinated person. This figure, as we can all see, can very greatly. But what we actually need is what is called an ‘absolute risk’ calculated figure. This figure gives us the absolute protection a vaccinated person has against Covid 19. This is the figure we need.

      Otherwise, if you start thinking to much you’ll soon find yourself on the outside looking in…..

  12. Bomber, you lost me when you mentioned China wanting our water. If you meant primary and refined produce there is nothing to worry about. If you meant water in bottles then you have no appreciation of NZ’s climate and water availability. Not to mention that the water bottling industry is a tiny user of fresh water in NZ. It uses less than 0.002% of the 10 trillion litres used annually by kiwis. It would be cheaper for China to desalinate seawater or tow icebergs from Antartica.

    • China, will be buying existing water rights across New Zealand, just as they did with Cloud Ocean Water in Christchurch:
      Hi-tech water bottling plant – $60m invested
      Creating 200 new jobs
      Same amount of consented water use as wool scourer
      No discharge of contaminants or effluent
      Growing market – 10 per cent global increase in packaged water sales year on year
      Building rescued and restored, including adding a new roof

      This has got to be good for business and ACT and National will support this public-private partnership investment in New Zealand.

      Currently Cloud Ocean Water has consent from Environment Canterbury to take up to 4,320 cubic metres a day of water from the West Melton aquifer, an annual volume of 1,577million cubic metres.

      A bi-product of the privatisation of water is that Christchurch will introduce water charges for ratepayers, which will help infrastructure rebuilds in Christchurch. Win-win for everyone.

      • Water, our new export market utilising our creative spirit and noble skills. Who would have thought it – soon we wiil go further and have technology making potable? water; of course to send overseas and to profit private speculators.

        NZ the dingy dinghy, gets ahead of the fleet sometimes (when the tide and current is right) but drops back to its regular rear position soon. There was a child’s book Flick the Little Fire Engine. Some clever artist could make a story about how the Little Dinghy got looose and saved the country by being taken on as a pilot boat for a cruise ship and towed it away along with all their Covid cases and wealthy dilettantes enriching the overseas investors using our country and services as a backdrop for their peoduction.

  13. Birth rates will drop massively
    and will affect everything
    but in a slow way
    except for related businesses
    like midwifery, maternity products and services

  14. Look on the bright side, with war comes massive limitations on petrol. So no one can drive their car.

    And think of all the other good things, like the collapse of the manufacturing of consumer goods. Or the end of global shipping. The rise of pirates and the death of millions.

    Another positive is you won’t have to update your cell phone, as they are made in China, and the the CPU’s are produced in Taiwan. Those factories will be boomed back to the stone ages.

    Oh and we will lock in a 3 degrees temperature rise, so the weather will then really try to kill us all.

    War, it’s the answer you all been looking for.

    Just a note for the woke amongst you who may read this. I’m anti militarist activist from way back, and the only thing I’ve got left is sarcasm. As my wit has truly be destroyed by all these jingoistic *&^%# who call themselves our leaders.

  15. Interesting comments and predictions. Frank the Tank’s glitter, however a’ll that glisters is not gold’ Shakeapeare said. It is all so incredible that I wonder why people bother to have tv. I haven’t as I need time to try and take in what is going on, will likely be going on, what has gone on, also new ideas about that, and proof of what did go on.

    I was interested in Thinking Man putting all his thoughts into Covid. There is so much else happening and Covid is just part, so he has side-tracked. I smell something fishy, and gagarin made a typo I think, meaning to put squid pro quo. Ben needs to be in charge of watching over our water, he seems very ‘sanguine’ about it. Wild katipo can never be ‘mild’ katipo, ‘reason’ produces scary detail, Mike the Lefty seems apposite, country boy mixes emotion with fact and may be a good cook, Andrew and Wayne test the hyperbole for reliability. Will there be an opportunity for ‘Lucky Dip’ this year? I hope. Ngā mihi o te tau hou, nga mea pai katoa.

  16. The Kraut will no longer attack Jacinda at all costs( that’s all he’s on this site for and his only agenda), won’t comment on her wedding because he’s a jealous single, will read Hollow Men and educate himself, will stop believing in the tooth fairy and that Key is really a Knight. Happy new year all( even The Kraut, like arse holes, we all have them, he’s allowed an opinion).

  17. @Martyn:
    I notice well deserved accolades for Jacinda recently on this site. The Covid pandemic hasn’t exactly been a trivial issue to deal with, nor has White Island or the Christchurch Mosque attacks. And there has been other matters.
    I often wonder though whether she lays awake at night asking herself whether or not she has to bloody well do EVERYTHING herself
    As the pace of change fastens, deeply conservative uni-taskers ain’t going to cut it – especially when you’ve promised to be kind and transformational. More than that – OPEN and TRANSPARENT
    I guess it’s not too easy to shed half a lifetime of religiously being a Moron or enthralled by 3rd way Blairite media manipulation. It’ll take a while to wake up
    What are your reckons though as to her expectations of some of her Ministerial colleagues (in this space, going forward)? And of so-called “apolitical” public servants – some of whom it’s become obvious, clearly have their own agendas (even if they don’t have the common decency to stand for parliament themselves – yet)
    Jacinda has done well and deserves the kudos. Not so much many of her colleagues and “officials”. I’d offer her my own bullshit detector if I could afford to lose it, but I need it at the moment. Hers doesn’t appear to be that good.
    Personally, after a lifetime of supporting Labour (except for a bit of Green support such as acting as a scrutineer and delivering a few pamphlets), I’ve decided to vote next election the way MMP was intended.
    I.E for the electorate candidate I think is most competent and up to it (and incidentally, one that’s not likely to be compromised by a bit of sleaze here and there); AND for the party whose policies best represent my hopes and principles, and whose record of delivery I’ll take into account. SO far, that’s NOT Labour (poviddy; housing; PS reform; PS broadcasting and media; transparency and democratic principles, Krekshuns rehabilitation programmes; etc., etc., etc.; standing up to the Okkers (as in nuclular-free moments and turning charter flights around); corporate greed and welfare and actually delivering on outcomes of years of inquiries; Oranga Fucking Tamariki and its predecessors; etc.; etc.; etc……….

    I’m half expecting a cynical flurry of delivery towards the end of the year and into ’23.
    I’d have hoped Jacinda was better than that although I understand why she’s been reluctant. She should have whipped a few arses a long time ago.
    So let it play out

    • OnceWasTim,

      Perspective is always vitally important as is the old chestnut “The Devil is in the detail”.

      Ardern was promoted to Labour leader late in the game when previous leader Andrew Little fell on his sword 18 months after he should have.

      Ardern remarkably took Labour to the brink of victory only to lose all momentum a week out from election day due to the dead cat on the table fiscal hole courtesy of Steven Joyce. That was our first real look at Ardern playing nice instead of fighting. That resulted in her then needing Winston Peters with all that entails to become Government.

      Ardern only had one plan to get on top of the housing crisis. The working group that was going to rubber stamp the Capital Gains Tax. Winston Peters then threatened to bring the Government to it’s knees over the CGT if they pursued it. Ardern not only took it off the table but promised to keep it off the table as long as she was the PM. Their plan to beat the housing crisis was over before it even started. There was no plan B. Since then several things have unfolded. The totally inept Housing Minister Phil Twyford was sent packing and replaced by the even more inept Megan Woods. The fact she was seen as the “go-to” person for Labour was VERY telling. She continues on stumbling from one photo opportunity charade to another while house prices and housing inequity reach new diabolical levels. An epic fail for Ardern.

      Ardern performed magnificently after the Christchurch massacre and the White Island tragedy.

      The Covid Pandemic arrived on our shores and the adoration for Ardern soared after her handling but what had she really done?

      Their first colossal balls up involved overseas tourists. We all knew they were going to be the source of Covid arriving here. Instead of stopping it there and then, Ardern and Co spouted naive horseshit that tourists are expected to self isolate in their hotel rooms for 14 days when they arrive here. Everyone in NZ with a brain bigger than a sultana knew this was a farcical joke. Many of these tourists were here on a once in a life time holiday and their stay was less than 14 days. What percentage would be prepared to spend their entire expensive holiday locked up in their hotel room despite feeling normal? 0% would be an accurate answer. Only when TV reporters filmed tourists arriving at the airport and laughing at the prospect of self isolation did Ardern act. The high trust model had been exposed. Humiliating reality checks had forced a U Turn. Not unlike the harbour bridge cycle lane.

      NZ was late to the Covid party which gifted us a huge advantage. Ardern knew lockdowns were the answer at that point based on what was happening everywhere else and she also learned avoiding delaying the lockdown was critical. NZ is a relatively rich country so we could afford a lockdown more than many other countries. It was ABC uncomplicated stuff really. NZ saw the horrendous scenes unfolding around the world and felt Ardern and tag team partner Dr Bloomfield had saved them and their loved ones from that same carnage. Many believe the way money was gifted out early on to so many encouraged widespread fraud. High trust models often come into play when naive mindsets prevail along with an inability to come up with a prudent plan. They started changing the plan and conditions after the fact a few weeks later with “expectations” when their original actions had been exposed.

      Things got a lot more complicated with the arrival of Vaccines but Ardern missed the boat early on at almost every opportunity.

      The Ministry of Health knew more than most that Maori almost always suffer poorer health outcomes than others but no accommodation was made for this despite them having months to factor it in. In the United States an estimated 40% of the population are considered Anti-Vax. No consideration was given in this key area here to avoid the very predictable carnage that followed that likely included the extended Auckland lockdown in 2021 where the unvaccinated held the vaccinated to ransom in their own homes. The divisive situation we now have in NZ was totally avoidable had it been managed prudently.

      The vaccine rollout in NZ prior to August 2021 was pathetic. This was exposed in July when it was revealed less than 10% of Tauranga Port workers were fully vaccinated despite the serious implications. This was a slow motion train wreck waiting to unfold. Ardern and the M.O.H knew absolutely nothing about this.

      Many of NZ’s elderly including those with other health issues were still waiting for their first jab in August despite NZ being gifted the perfect opportunity to get ahead of the disease via vaccination. They blew it.

      The fact a good percentage of frontline Police remained unvaccinated tells a story. Other professions in that same boat.

      The lack of a meaningful consequence for those that openly display contempt for Covid rules was very damaging and undermined all the personal sacrifices being made by the majority to help keep NZ safe. This helped create another divide as it appeared Ardern was gifting rule breakers a free pass. It’s either a serious situation that requires compliance to help save lives…..or it isn’t.

      The steps introduced to level 3 were ambiguous and confusing. They were delivered at the same time Ardern dispensed with their expert advice they’d been receiving and announced their plan to eliminate the virus was now history. The same plan Australian PM Scott Morrison described as absurd.

      In the days and weeks that followed we saw two things happen. People out and about in huge numbers and a large increase in Covid community cases. Ardern stated (from the twilight zone) the two were not connected.

      November saw Ardern’s announcement of opening up the Auckland border in December. This is where an abundance of caution met up with placating, appeasing and reckless disregard.

      You no longer needed a Vaccine Pass for freedom. You could now enjoy holidays around NZ if you had a 72 hour old negative Covid test result. This was a victory for those that for whatever reason including selfishness decided not to get vaccinated. Ardern did however farcically warn people that rule breakers would be fined and spoke of the $1000 fine (that not one person had received). A few hours later the Police confirmed they would NOT be fining rule breakers. They would instead “educate’ rule breakers. Try educating / debating with anyone anti-vax and you will see you’ve got a better chance of stopping the tide coming in. Ardern had been exposed yet again.

      Now what do we have in early January? Astonishingly, while we have Aucklanders spread all over NZ and everyone else out and about enjoying summer, we only had 24 community cases yesterday. Really? Pull the other one. It’s still playing jingle bells. Our reality is that at this most important time and with Omicron about to unfold big time, our testing numbers have gone on holiday and in doing so created a false sense of security and complacency at exactly the time it is least needed. Yes, a break from most things Covid related is needed but how prudent is that if it results in 2022 being even worse than 2021? What were all the sacrifices for?

      Ardern has done some things well and others badly. Remember, it’s not how you start that matters most. It’s how you finish.

  18. USA republicans thrown into turmoil as Trump imprisoned on multiple charges, sexual impropriety, initiating insurrection, tax fraud etc, close ties with Ghislaine Maxwell etc, etc,etc. All republicans deny knowing Trump.

  19. There are no aliens visiting Earth Martyn. None of the footage is convincing.
    Just wishful thinking really- symptomatic of these “interesting times” in which we live, and very understandable.
    Happy New Year everybody

    • aliens already know about earth it’s the most popular reality/comedy show in the galaxy…

      seriously though an advanced civilisation capable of real space travel are likely to see us as animals, pandas if we’re lucky cattle if we ain’t, that they will be benefactor creatures composed of pure energy, is the same kind of error most indigenous people made when they saw sails on the horizon…..juz sayin.

  20. “China buys the National Party out and buys the Labour Party out so as to keep their interests safe.”

    China does not have the money to out buy the corporate-captured, US government, as the chief influencer of NZ politics. Howe dare anyone looks at China without being mindful of the role that thee most powerful nation on earth has on anything and everything that exists in this world. And this all important point sums up pretty much everything here. Nothing bar nothing gets an OK without the say so of the USA. End of story….

  21. That ilink from save nz about the destruction of the rain forest and a smug-looking kiwi bloke with an apparently done-deal should hold our attention.  That’s the sort of thing that Labour ushered in, bowing and scraping, when they linked arms with Treasury economists and right-wing businessmen here and overseas.  Our country is still bowing but lots of people are doing the scraping.   I guess the right-wingers won’t worry while we fall downward into the rabbit hole, and wonder where the bottom is.   Dad, Mum are we there yet?

    The item about Indonesia is mainly about clearing trees in Papua rainforest to be planted in palm oil and be the world’s biggest plantation.   The link wouldn’t work for me so I got there on this one:

    My prediction for 2022 is that people will continue to be taken in by the idea of plantation palm oil being okay, when actually it replaces useful trees of the people living there, using their resource land to grow a  cash crop, and give them some work on the plantation in place of their ‘garden’ that provided almost all they needed.

    And there is us importing palm oil extract . Palm Kernel Expeller (PKE) is a by-product of the palm oil extraction process from the fruit of the palm. PKE is a quality stock feed containing high levels of crude protein and medium energy levels. It is completely safe to feed as a supplement for most classes of livestock.
    Palm Kernel Expeller (PKE) | Agrifeeds › products › dry-feeds › palm-kern…

    (Is this true?) We import more than twice as much palm kernel extract as China, India and Australia combined. And those countries have a combined 63.5 million dairy cows (we have 6.1 million). … At the same time, we imported 1.825 million tonnes of palm kernel extract into NZ back in 2020.20/08/2021
    New Zealand’s hidden link to the palm oil industry › new-zealand-palm-oil

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