If you thought 2021 was bad, it’s nothing compared to the perfect storm of black swans looking to land in 2022.
A culmination of bubbles look set to pop in ways that could rapidly destabilize everyone and everything.
Here are the International TDB political predictions 2022.
China – All eyes will be on China.
Xi is moving from crazed dictator into crazed God mode.
Our complex relationship with China is actually very simple. We are desperate to sell basic bitch milk powder and China is rich enough to exploit our desperation in the hope of gaining what they really want – our water.
China buys the National Party out and buys the Labour Party out so as to keep their interests safe.
Culturally National never talk about Chinese influence because their farmer, banker and speculator voters need that Chinese money and the Left don’t talk about Chinese influence because it’s xenophobic.
China’s cultural and economics crackdowns are increasingly repressive and their ongoing saber rattling over Hong Kong and Taiwan alongside their rapid military deployment and weapon upgrades all point to a China becoming drunk on their own power.
We need to decouple urgently from China economically while acknowledging China’s main influence in our country is through intimidation of their diaspora living here. As the recent investigation into Chinese spies in our Universities highlights, NZ culture needs to embrace and connect with our Chinese-New Zealand community so that they feel more loved by us than fear CCP activists.
With the Winter Olympics in February, a symbolic and harsh crack down on Hong Kong will reassert the CCPs authority, but expect that after February. They would be mad to do it before the Olympics. Any move into Hong Kong will be at the same time as any invasion of the Ukraine by Putin.
In terms of a serious attack on Taiwan, my guess is Xi will wait until the CCPs 20th conference in November to try any possible invasion. If he is granted the his powers of Mao, all bets are off the table.
China has a huge advantage with hypersonic missiles, any invasion of Taiwan will use these as a warning to America.
Expect China to use its failing economic environment to trade punish critical countries, as the weakest member of 5 Eyes, NZ will be very vulnerable to this.
This game of printing money to pump into property and stock market speculation to create a false illusion of wealth can continue playing as long as hyper inflation doesn’t overturn the apple cart.
But what happens if it does?
What happens if hyper inflation does suddenly explode out of nowhere?
To date all the inflationary pressures caused by this mass printing has led to driving up property prices and stock markets without touching the essentials and basics of life, but one of the impacts of Covid has been to shut down the global supply chains which is now creating scarcity of products that can’t get to market because they are bottlenecked at a Port.
This seems insanely dangerous because all those hyper inflation pressures will immediately jump to the very basics everyone uses.
Your Kiwisaver going up and your property value climbing is one thing, paying $15 for a loaf of bread and $20 for milk is completely another.
To date the cost rises have been in things poor people have to pay, transport, rent and gas. That means food will be cut, hungry people get angry quickly.
After every great pandemic throughout history, the peasant revolt in the 1300s, the London riots of the 1600s and the social unrest right after the Influenza pandemic of 1918, society always goes through intense social change brought on by the economic collapse lockdowns generate.
If the bottlenecks of supply chains are blocked unleashing a tsunami of hyper inflation on the goods everyone requires for life, Central Banks will have no choice but to lift interest rates to desperately attempt to curtail that hyper inflation, which of course will mean the ocean of low interest debt that has been created to fuel hyper speculation will suddenly start feeling the true gravity of trillions in borrowing.
This is the new ‘normal’. Constant eruptions of external global disruptions that cause widespread damage. The climate crisis will simply exacurbate these economic meltdowns.
Shit is going to get way worse in 2022.
With China our new Economic Overlord, what hurts them hurts us.
The building blocks of globalized free market lowest cost capitalism is fracturing as the model can’t keep up with demand while decarbonising.
Those fractures are becoming impossible to ignore…
The world’s largest carmakers and other users of aluminium could be forced to halt production within weeks amid a “catastrophic” shortage of magnesium across Europe.
Magnesium is a key material used in the production of aluminium alloys, which are used in everything from car parts to building materials and food packaging.
China has a near-monopoly on global magnesium manufacturing, accounting for 87 per cent of production, but the Chinese government’s efforts to reduce domestic power consumption amid rising energy prices have slowed output to a trickle since September 20.
In Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces, the world’s main magnesium production hubs, 25 plants had to shut down and five further plants slashed production by 50 per cent as a result of the power cuts.
…if China’s domestic real estate bubble implodes, investors with external holdings may have to sell enmasse causing a glut.
How much of NZs housing market consists of Chinese speculators?
Looks like we might find out.
The economic threats makes the current sabre rattling military threats look friendly.
In March, Adm. Philip Davidson, the outgoing commander of U.S. military forces in the Pacific, told a Senate panel that China posed a “manifest” threat of invading Taiwan “in the next six years.”
No senior official had ever issued such a specific or urgent warning about the fate of the tiny democratic island 100 miles off of China’s eastern coast. But since Davidson’s testimony, boatloads of military officers, active and retired, have sounded similar alarm bells. Some congressmen, such as Republican Sen. Tom Cotton, have even called for recognizing Taiwan as an independent nation and making NATO-like commitments to defend it from invasion—a step that would reverse 42 years of U.S. policy, further destabilize relations with China, and possibly precipitate war.
At the same time, a debate has erupted among more scholarly analysts over whether China’s Communist leaders really want to invade Taiwan—and, if they do, whether the Chinese military is capable of doing so now or in the near future. With few exceptions, the pessimists tend to be military officers, who measure the balance of power by which side has more or less of what sorts of weapons systems, while the less-panicked tend to be experts on China’s history and politics who view the statistics in a broader context.
Hyper inflation, economic meltdown and a planet stumbling from a global pandemic that originated in China.
Look at this…
…In 2010, the 388 richest individuals owned more wealth than half of the entire human population on Earth
By 2015, this number was reduced to only 62 individuals
In 2018, it was 42
In 2019, it was down to only 26 individuals who own more wealth than 3.8 billion people.
And now in 2021, 20 people own more than 50% of the entire planet.
This isn’t democracy, this is a feudal plutocracy on a burning Earth!
These are all the ingredients for conflict and a hot war.
One of the most concerning elements of all of this occurred before the US election when Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, contacted his a Chinese to tell them America would not attack them.
If China was convinced Trump wanted a war in 2020, they will certainly think he’ll start one in 2024. Their hawks will be demanding force before then.
Right now. All roads lead to war, economic Armageddon and environmental meltdown.
Here’s Tom with the weather.
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