Internal political and economic dynamics within China and America are driving both to conflict and that will have enormous implications for New Zealand.
In the days after the United States Congress decided to impeach Donald Trump over his role in inciting the January 6 insurrection, it seemed the possibility of his running for the presidency again was slim.
Eleven months later, those odds have tumbled.
Although the former president has yet to launch an official, or non-official bid to run in the 2024 election, this Monday saw him give the clearest indication yet that he could be seeking to stage a comeback.
In an interview with Fox News, the controversial Republican confirmed it was something that was up for consideration.
For Virgina to swing so hard against Biden who took it by 10points only a year ago is extremely concerning for a race seen as the bellwether for mid terms.
Biden’s inability to get anything done and the disaster of the Afghanistan collapse are mixing with the alienating inclusion via exclusion woke activists.
Legendary Democrat strategist James Carville blames “stupid wokeness” and is is critical of defund the Police and wanting to remove Abraham Lincoln’s name from schools. He argues most people are more concerned with economics than social justice mantras that come across as cult like to the middle voter.
The danger seems to be the midterms where Biden’s mishandling of the Afghanistan pull out and Democratic infighting over their Omni bill are hurting Democrat chances.
What’s most concerning is Trump campaigning on behalf of little known functional roles at electoral stations. He is championing candidates who would turn any contested election to the House of Representatives where Trump believes Republicans would have a majority.
It’s like Trump is building an apparatus that will refer contested results to the House in order to steal the 2024 election.
Like it’s really obvious that’s what he’s doing.
If Trump runs and wins it will be the beginning of the end for America.
China is on the brink of adopting a “historical resolution” which could secure President Xi Jinping’s stranglehold for life.
A four-day, top-secret gathering of hundreds of top-ranking Chinese Communist Party officials is now underway, with the sixth plenary session of the Central Committee held in Beijing set to decide on a so-called “historical resolution” on the country’s achievements.
The “draft resolution on the major achievements and historical experience of the [party’s] 100 years of endeavours” – the first official announcement on Chinese history in four long decades – was delivered by Xi himself, and insiders expect the resolution to be passed.
If that does happen on Thursday as expected, it will set the tone for a rare congress which will be held next year, in which Xi is tipped to snag an unprecedented third term.
Xi is moving from crazed dictator into crazed God mode.
Our complex relationship with China is actually very simple. We are desperate to sell basic bitch milk powder and China is rich enough to exploit our desperation in the hope of gaining what they really want – our water.
China buys the National Party out and buys the Labour Party out so as to keep their interests safe.
Culturally National never talk about Chinese influence because their farmer, banker and speculator voters need that Chinese money and the Left don’t talk about Chinese influence because it’s xenophobic.
China’s cultural and economics crackdowns are increasingly repressive and their ongoing saber rattling over Hong Kong and Taiwan alongside their rapid military deployment and weapon upgrades all point to a China becoming drunk on their own power.
We need to decouple urgently from China economically while acknowledging China’s main influence in our country is through intimidation of their diaspora living here. As the recent investigation into Chinese spies in our Universities highlights, NZ culture needs to embrace and connect with our Chinese-New Zealand community so that they feel more loved by us than fear CCP activists.
Pressure on America’s central bank to raise interest rates has intensified after rising energy costs, supply shortages and increased consumption sent US inflation surging to a level not seen for more than 30 years.
Although the Federal Reserve has repeatedly insisted price pressures will prove “transitory”, financial markets were taken aback by a 6.2% increase in the cost of living in the world’s biggest economy over the past year.
A labor department report released on Wednesday showed prices rose by 0.9% in October alone – more than double the 0.4% jump in September – to push the annual rate of inflation to its highest level since December 1990, a time when global oil prices had risen sharply due to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.
Covid has seen the main banks of the West sink trillions more into quantitive easing to deal with the economic whiplash the pandemic has created and in NZ we saw with the pumping of billions into the pockets of property speculators how our own house prices have skyrocketed.
This game of printing money to pump into property and stock market speculation to create a false illusion of wealth can continue playing as long as hyper inflation doesn’t overturn the apple cart.
But what happens if it does?
What happens if hyper inflation does suddenly explode out of nowhere?
To date all the inflationary pressures caused by this mass printing has led to driving up property prices and stock markets without touching the essentials and basics of life, but one of the impacts of Covid has been to shut down the global supply chains which is now creating scarcity of products that can’t get to market because they are bottlenecked at a Port.
This seems insanely dangerous because all those hyper inflation pressures will immediately jump to the very basics everyone uses.
Your Kiwisaver going up and your property value climbing is one thing, paying $15 for a loaf of bread and $20 for milk is completely another.
To date the cost rises have been in things poor people have to pay, transport, rent and gas. That means food will be cut, hungry people get angry quickly.
After every great pandemic throughout history, the peasant revolt in the 1300s, the London riots of the 1600s and the social unrest right after the Influenza pandemic of 1918, society always goes through intense social change brought on by the economic collapse lockdowns generate.
If the bottlenecks of supply chains are blocked unleashing a tsunami of hyper inflation on the goods everyone requires for life, Central Banks will have no choice but to lift interest rates to desperately attempt to curtail that hyper inflation, which of course will mean the ocean of low interest debt that has been created to fuel hyper speculation will suddenly start feeling the true gravity of trillions in borrowing.
This is the new ‘normal’. Constant eruptions of external global disruptions that cause widespread damage. The climate crisis will simply exacurbate these economic meltdowns.
China’s economy — the 2nd-largest in the world — is teetering on the brink of disaster.
Since this spring, Beijing has canceled initial public offerings, fined tech companies billions for antitrust violations, forcibly shut down China’sentire for-profit education industry, and sent CEOs running for the exitsto avoid the government’s ire. Even more dire, the Chinese megadeveloper Evergrande recently started missing payments on its more than $300 billion in debt, shaking global markets. The convulsions have woken the world up to a startling new possibility — that Beijing may be willing to allow some of its private corporate behemoths to collapse in a bid to reshape the economic model that made China a superpower.
The upheaval, spanning multiple industries and vast swaths of the country, is the result of one giant issue: China’s inability to borrow or buy its way out of its current economic crisis. For decades, the country relied on cheap labor and eye-popping amounts of debt, handed out by government-owned banks, to fuel economic growth — pouring money into massive apartment developments, factories, bridges, and other projects at lightning speed. Now the country needs people to actually use, and pay for, everything that’s been built. But the bulk of China’s population lacks the income needed to shift the economy from one driven by state investments to one sustained by consumer spending.
As a result, China finds itself stuck with a system that is overbuilt and overindebted. Take the country’s $52 trillion property market, of which the Evergrande mess is the poster child. With money easy to borrow, real-estate speculation became a popular way to store and build wealth for China’s young middle class. One academic described this model to me colorfully as an “addiction to real-estate cocaine.” It’s also been called a “treadmill to hell.”
As the government now attempts to deflate the real-estate bubble without bursting it, it has been forced to prepare the country for a period of slower growth and belt-tightening. And to make matters worse, China is also facing an energy crisis fueled by skyrocketing coal prices as well as a working-age population that is getting old without enough resources to retire on.
With China our new Economic Overlord, what hurts them hurts us.
The building blocks of globalized free market lowest cost capitalism is fracturing as the model can’t keep up with demand while decarbonising.
Those fractures are becoming impossible to ignore…
The world’s largest carmakers and other users of aluminium could be forced to halt production within weeks amid a “catastrophic” shortage of magnesium across Europe.
Magnesium is a key material used in the production of aluminium alloys, which are used in everything from car parts to building materials and food packaging.
China has a near-monopoly on global magnesium manufacturing, accounting for 87 per cent of production, but the Chinese government’s efforts to reduce domestic power consumption amid rising energy prices have slowed output to a trickle since September 20.
In Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces, the world’s main magnesium production hubs, 25 plants had to shut down and five further plants slashed production by 50 per cent as a result of the power cuts.
…if China’s domestic real estate bubble implodes, investors with external holdings may have to sell enmasse causing a glut.
How much of NZs housing market consists of Chinese speculators?
Looks like we might find out.
The economic threats makes the current sabre rattling military threats look friendly.
In March, Adm. Philip Davidson, the outgoing commander of U.S. military forces in the Pacific, told a Senate panel that China posed a “manifest” threat of invading Taiwan “in the next six years.”
No senior official had ever issued such a specific or urgent warning about the fate of the tiny democratic island 100 miles off of China’s eastern coast. But since Davidson’s testimony, boatloads of military officers, active and retired, have sounded similar alarm bells. Some congressmen, such as Republican Sen. Tom Cotton, have even called for recognizing Taiwan as an independent nation and making NATO-like commitments to defend it from invasion—a step that would reverse 42 years of U.S. policy, further destabilize relations with China, and possibly precipitate war.
At the same time, a debate has erupted among more scholarly analysts over whether China’s Communist leaders really want to invade Taiwan—and, if they do, whether the Chinese military is capable of doing so now or in the near future. With few exceptions, the pessimists tend to be military officers, who measure the balance of power by which side has more or less of what sorts of weapons systems, while the less-panicked tend to be experts on China’s history and politics who view the statistics in a broader context.
Hyper inflation, economic meltdown and a planet stumbling from a global pandemic that originated in China.
These are all the ingredients for conflict and a hot war.
One of the most concerning elements of all of this occurred last year before the US election when Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, contacted his a Chinese to tell them America would not attack them.
If China was convinced Trump wanted a war in 2020, they will certainly think he’ll start one in 2024. Their hawks will be demanding force before then.
Right now. All roads lead to war.
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