The drawn-out lockdown affecting the upper North Island couldn’t have come at a worse time, one economist says, with firms set to miss out on the Christmas sales bump and other festive spending.
Businesses should be allowed to fail over the coming months because, if the country is not pursuing an elimination strategy for Covid-19, it does not make sense to try to save every one, one economist says.
The country is on a precipice and I don’t think people appreciate how large a flock of black swans are circling.
The OCR rate skips up again, possibly by as much as .5 as the Reserve Bank throws the only thing they have to stop real time inflation from exploding. The problem as I see it is the inflation is being caused by unique supply side constrictions, so the only tool left is the ‘bazooka’, which Adrian Orr used last time with a .75 cut. If he needs to get ahead of a sudden spike in the cost of basics because ports are jammed solid it would need to be one enormous hand break.
And if he has to pull that hand break, we best hope there are airbags for everyone.
The steep rise in repaying the ocean of debt will suck money directly out of the pockets of people, many of whom are on the tipping point between functioning and desperate.
This leads to a plunge in consumer confidence, enormous financial pressures and the necessity to re-enter level 4 forcing those elements of the economy built on hospitality, tourism & retail to shut as wave after wave of sickness and death trips the country back into a steep recession and brutal lockdown.
Delta spreads thanks to unclear rules and leaky borders and the contest becomes a race to vaccinate. With less than 600 ICU beds, we overload capacity at around 15 000 cases and break the track & track at 180 cases a day.
The modelling is grim…
According to modelling carried out by the Counties Manukau District Health Board, if border restrictions are loosened for arrivals from countries with high Covid numbers, South Auckland will see between 1000 and 1400 cases a week – even if vaccination rates get to 90 per cent.
Under the modelling prepared for the DHB, if strong border controls and public health measures remained in place and the vaccination rate reached 90 per cent, the Counties Manukau region would see only 40 cases and one hospitalisation per week. This number jumps to 200 cases per week if vaccination rates reach only 80 per cent.
The scenario gets much more grim for South Aucklanders if border and public health restrictions are lifted. The DHB’s modelling shows there will be at least 1000 cases and 30 hospitalisations per week with a 90 per cent vaccination rate, or 1400 cases and 45 hospitalisations if vaccination rates reach only 80 per cent.
Thousands of people will be infected with Covid-19 every week even with vaccination levels at 90 per cent, and hospitals face being overwhelmed once restrictions are eased and borders opened, the Government says.
Modelling showed there could be up to 5200 Covid cases a week – just in the Auckland and Northland region – at 90 per cent vaccination rates, Ministry of Health chief medical officer Andrew Connolly said on Thursday. The figure doesn’t include the rest of the country south of the Bombay Hills.
His comments came as the Government unveiled its new strategy to eventually manage between 90 and 95 per cent of Covid infections at home, and not in MIQ, under the care of general practitioners and nurses.
Still, the 5 to 10 per cent of patients sick enough to go to hospital would place a lot of pressure on the health system, Connolly said.
Illness, the speed of the spread and a spike in deaths all combine to cause a shockwave through communities, suburbs and wider society. This shockwave of grief and sorrow hits all aspects of civil society, culture, economy, art and politics. The price becomes unconscionable in Maori, Pacifica, old and poor communities.
While Maori Gangs vaccinate and agree to stop dealing until vaccination rates are up, the 501s see this as an opportunity to dramatically expand their market share which causes and trips immense friction and rapidly escalating violence while National, ACT & the NZME Troll farm go to work playing to the community’s fear and selling Labour as soft on gangs.
At the same time, the psychological impact of lockdown starts erupting with domestic violence & extreme events.
As the economic stress of new level 4 lockdown restrictions bite alongside the grief shockwave alongside the explosion in crime, the State’s increasingly punitive approach egged on by extreme partisan social media culture wars breeds the perfect maelstrom of extremist civil unrest.
Get vaccinated. Now. It’s here and NZ is about to be tested in ways we haven’t seen in living memory.
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