Skegg report is simple – can’t open the border until everyone is vaccinated

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
49
1372

Covid-19 NZ: Government advisory group says borders can open in 2022 without forgoing elimination strategy

Fortress New Zealand can begin to open in early 2022 provided all New Zealanders have had the chance to be vaccinated, according to the Government’s hand-picked group of scientists advising on reopening New Zealand to the world.

But that travel should be at first restricted to vaccinated Kiwis going overseas from New Zealand for short trips, and should begin with shorter stays in managed isolation.

The Strategic Covid-19 Public Health Advisory Group, led by Professor Sir David Skegg, has been delivering its advice to the Government since early June, with the report released to media on Wednesday. The group’s report consists of three letters of advice sent to the government on June 10, June 24 and July 27.

The Skegg report has stated the bleeding obvious.

You can’t reopen the border until a very, very high proportion of the entire population (kids included) are vaccinated and that vaccination process will have to be annual.

With the glacial vaccination roll out, it is unlikely we will see the type of vaccination numbers we would require for that until late 2022 or early 2023.

Maori and Pacifica vaccination rates are very low, if Covid breaks out in NZ and devastates those populations, this Government would be roasted.

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Remember, the Skegg report can’t predict future outbreaks of different mutations so that demands a border that is forever vigilant and ready to shut down to prevent new variants breaking out.

This won’t help migrant workers locked out of the country, nor business reliant on that labour.

The issue for the Government is do they spend money to upgrade the infrastructure that allows a much larger MIQ process or do they continue with the current system causing so much stress.

The focus is now on vaccination rates and roll out before the border can be considered.

If we go straight back to mass migrant worker exploitation, exploitative international education and hyper tourism we will have learned nothing.

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49 COMMENTS

  1. I see it playing out differently.

    Watching Australia and the Delta variant, and our ham fisted border control it seems more likely delta gets here first and becomes hard to get rid of, eventually with the virus endemic we open borders like everyone else.

    Such a strategy might even be deliberate:the government is gutless and won’t want to be seen as intentionally opening borders when infection and some death is inevitable- their sole basis for re election was having NZ covid free, so a long time before they would open things up = more time for delta to sneak in with lowest vaccination rate in the OECD.

    • I think you may be right Keepcalmcarryon.

      We’ve dodged more than a few bullets by sheer luck and so it’s likely we’re going to stop one eventually. At which point we’re scrambling like the rest. But before we panic, NSW in Aussie reported three deaths yesterday out of hundreds of positive tests of which none were vaccinated and one was 98 years old and the Israelis have developed a treatment that addresses the worst effects:
      https://www.jpost.com/health-science/covid-90-percent-of-patients-treated-with-new-israeli-drug-discharged-in-5-days-675961?fbclid=IwAR3ZJF1-bxfTzqB5M3WkznWuTChPg_23bjq5CGUWC5nOLpDZe6k5ojUdCNo

      This bug is now globally endemic so at some point it will get here. Meanwhile the government should be building semi permanent modular quarantine facilities outside of town using prefab buildings we employ as site offices and classrooms. Oh and sorting out its MiQ booking system so that citizens can book a place before we leave.

      Meanwhile those refusing to get vaccinated are just underscoring Darwin’s Theory.

      • I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – this from the medsafe website, ‘However, COVID-19 vaccines have been rapidly developed and many use novel technologies not used in any other approved vaccines.’
        Is it at least reasonable to wait until the vaccine trials are finished before making the choice to get the jab?

          • Bert, ok so I read the ‘why do people believe in Covid-19 vaccination myths’. It doesn’t actually address any of the issues that I and others have raised in the comments. It gives strawman arguments.
            I don’t see any anti vaxxers in the comments. I’m not anti vax. I’ve had the usual vaccinations, my kids have had the usual vaccinations.
            We’re getting accused of being anti vax but no one is addressing our concerns.
            I know that the COVID-19 vaccine reduces the severity of the virus, but you can still get Covid-19 once vaccinated.
            But it is still experimental, long term effects are not known and it only has provisional approval.

        • Claim 7: All Covid-19 vaccines are currently experimental, and some trials won’t end until 2023

          The authorised Covid-19 vaccines are not ‘experimental’ any longer. The endpoints required for authorisation for use were met last year (safety and efficacy). Clinical trial participants are a valuable source of data and following them up for as long as possible is desirable and normal in vaccine trials. Also, new vaccine trials are kicking off all the time. Vaccines are used in experiments for their entire life, which can be many decades. Claiming that the Covid-19 vaccines are ‘experimental’ in a bid to scare people is misinforming them. There have been over one billion Covid-19 vaccines administered with safety and effectiveness closely monitored.

          University of Auckland…

          “Claiming that the Covid-19 vaccines are ‘experimental’ in a bid to scare people is misinforming them.”

          Off White…
          “But it is still experimental, long term effects are not known and it only has provisional approval.”

          Yeeeeaaaah right?

  2. The real issue will be if the balance of the developed world follows the UKs lead. Given the effectiveness of the vaccines in stopping serious health outcomes that zenith is fast approaching.

    Australia and NZ risk confining an entire generation to not seeing the wide world due to their myopic approach to covid where personal responsibility has been usurped by control, fear and compliance.

    • “… their myopic approach to covid where personal responsibility has been usurped by control, fear and compliance”.

      Call it as it is FTT. But let’s unpack that shall we. Myopic = in this context: ‘lacking foresight or intellectual insight’. In other words, short-sighted. Can we really say that of our government in their response to the global pandemic? What do you suggest they should have done, especially given they were in a position to watch things unfold from a distance?

      You may have a point with the second part of the comment though. As a nation we idolize sport and ‘the team of 5 million’ was a brilliant marketing ploy. Control, fear and compliance were of course involved although a good many might say cooperation for the common good was the intention. Its all a matter of perspective.

      • Is it not shortsighted to undertake an elimination strategy when the balance of the world is progressing under a management strategy with a virus that is now endemic on all continents apart from Antarctica?

        • Mmm…didn’t NZ adopt an elimination strategy early on when many elsewhere had no real option because the bug had already got a foothold – short-sighted or a pretty good move? Although, it could be argued an elimination strategy could have been pursued by a good many even then had the political environment allowed. And of course NZ is not the only one to pursue an early elimination strategy, or indeed to stick with it.

          The ‘management strategy’ you speak of will come. Borders will open as sure as the sun rises. Sooner or later. But it depends what is meant by management. As Ian Powell had it in his recent Guest Blog, elimination doesn’t mean eradication but “maximum action” necessary to control the virus and stop community transmission “as quickly as possible” while acknowledging that some community transmission will initially occur but that steps would be taken to extinguish it.

          How successful might that be? And what might those ‘steps’ be? Well, we’ll have to wait and see. As for the latter, shaming those who refuse vaccination, mandatory use of the Covid app, physical distancing, hand-washing, the normalising of mask wearing – any or all of these. What will the rest of the world look like until all this goes away, consigned to history like the Spanish flu epidemic? In the interim no real management at all? Just wishful thinking and the passage of time?

    • If the world does sort itself out, then it wouldn’t take a LIFE TIME to vaccinate the people in NZ who hadn’t got vaccinated. Plus there’d be almost NO demand around the world, so getting the vaccine would be relatively easy.
      So your straw man argument really is just scare mongering. IMHO.
      It is an untested (by ALL the usual tests) drug. So why hurry to be a human guinea pig in a country that does NOT have C-19? Let those who are panicked by the propaganda take the risk and let those less convinced wait until there is a slack in the demand and MUCH MORE professional and honest information from this trial are available..
      The six month full trial results just came out and were for some unknown reason LIMITED in the details they gave out. THUS working out an honest and best guess opinion is hard to come to.
      So why are the powers that be, being ‘too stupid, to be stupid’ and not giving or gathering the NORMAL data? I’m not saying their is a conspiracy, but when the powers decide to hold onto into, one way or another, reasonable questions have to be asked.
      Look at the cover up of Thalidomide drugs fiasco and ask yourself is it beyond Govt and companies to lie and cover up serious problems with a drug?

  3. It’s now clear the vaccine only works about 6 months, so everyone will need to be vaccinated twice a year for the rest of their lives:
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.03.21261496v1.full.pdf
    Add to that the current “vaccines” (and I use the term very loosely), is anywhere between 88% and 41%(!) effective against the Delta Variant should also be a cause for concern:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jvchamary/2021/07/29/pfizer-covid-19-coronavirus-vaccine-effective-delta-variant/
    Now combine that with a real possibility that the Delta Variant evolved in vaccinated people in the first place (remember these “vaccines are non-sterlising, i.e. you still contract and spread CoVID even if fully vaccinated – they only curtail symptoms):
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/cdc-study-shows-74percent-of-people-infected-in-massachusetts-covid-outbreak-were-fully-vaccinated.html
    as explained by Nobel Prize winning virologist:
    https://stuartbramhall.wordpress.com/2021/05/22/nobel-prize-winner-reveals-covid-vaccine-is-creating-variants/
    Which is unsurprising given that these “vaccines” are “leaky” (i.e. non-sterlising), as expalined in this 2015 article, means we can all look forward to more Variants down the road:
    https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002198
    So yes, EVERYONE will need to be vaccinated (since those that are unvaccinated will literally die) due to the fact we mandated vaccinations on everyone in the first place for a virus that had a 99.97% overall survival rate, rather than only those in high-risk groups.
    Slow clap.

  4. If Maori and Pacifica vaccine rates are lower AFTER the govt has done a big drive for Maori and Pacifica vaccines via Maori Health Providers, South Auckland GPs, Church Groups, Iwi Providers etc and these groups still have low vaccination rates- then why should the rest of us with family overseas be trapped due to their ignorance?

    • Maninblack your comment shows your ignorance lets turn that around, why should Maori and PI be forced to have a foreign rushed vaccine so your family who have chosen to live overseas can travel back and forward. When you have a long held distrust for our public health services and those in authority that have never served you or your whanau well, how do you all of a sudden trust them. PI and Maori have gone from the back of the health queue to the front, now would you not be alarmed, suspicious and concerned. And to add to the concern you are then told you may need to have more boosters shots/top ups of this vaccine. I think there are much better ways to persuade PI and Maori peoples of the benefit of having the vaccine and your argument sounds plain selfish and will make them get their backs up. Just remember who has been effected the most by this epidemic, the poor and Maori and PI are over represented in this group. Another example of us all of of sudden caring, is how quickly many of the homeless people were taken of the streets and homed so it seems we can fix things in this country when we really have to.

  5. Good to see the priorities of the left is not to ensure that less than 1 million Maori can survive but that exploiter cafes and billionaires can still keep their slave peasants in the fields open for business. Sarcasm.

    “won’t help migrant workers locked out of the country, nor business reliant on that labour.” Gosh sometimes the left seems to be more akin to the business roundtable, now rebranded at NZ inititive with their constant worry about business profits!

    Have yet to see any NZ employer announcing that they will pay a huge premium, relocation bonus up front and benefits to encourage NZ staff to their jobs!!!

    Likewise the much touted gentrification of NZ property everywhere in NZ with the manic ‘warm, dry, house, moniker; … with the same results, aka the previous run down villas in Ponsonby used to be the homes of the Pacific Island community, when that was gentrified they moved to South Auckland, now that is being gentrified where are they being moved to, next??? The caryards, emergency housing motels….

    Thanks ‘warm, dry houses’ for a great excuse for the government to help remove the poor from housing in NZ renters, and instead provide housing to NZ new residents who have money to buy their ‘first home’ in NZ, by bringing money from overseas.

    Somewhere I got lost what the left cause is supposed to be about and how gullible and blind they seem to be on what is going on, in their name.

  10. Maori and Pacifica vaccination rates are very low, if Covid breaks out in NZ and devastates those populations, this Government would be roasted.

    Probably the govt would be roasted. But then everyone has a pretty much equal opportunity to get themselves to a vaccination station. It would be a rare boss that wouldnt let staff take a couple of hours off work to get vaccinated. So why are Maori and Pacifica letting down the team of 5 million.

    • We are only a team in this country when there is an epidemic no epidemic its back to every man for himself with more beggars and homeless people who are currently hidden in motels.

  11. I say bring all our people home who want to come home, isolate ’em and keep a steady vaccine program going – without any strong arm coercions. And keep those borders tight! We’ve already seen problems with the ship in Tauranga.

    Its a welcome breather not having the place crawling with tourists and seeing army’s of low / minimum wage workers serving them. Then lets start on a massive program of renationalizing assets, developing huge projects for power/fuel generation, housing, key infrastructure – hospitals and schools, – offshore fishery’s and false reefs , improve our military esp our Navy to protect those fishery’s and provide back up civil relief for such things as hurricanes in the Pacific, invest heavily in education and hi tech industry’s,- and from primary produce,… focus on value added instead of just flogging off raw materials.

    Its time we lifted ourselves out of the neo liberal stone age.

    And that means a whole new era of nationalistic thinking, self sufficiency, aggressively pursuing trade deals around the globe INCLUDING Russia that benefit us also and not just the other trade partner, developing our own independent foreign policy’s without interference, developing a financial South Pacific hub for international use such as the Switz and English have created but without the tax havens…

    And all the while, keeping those borders tightly controlled.

    There was a time in this country when these things were given serious consideration an acted upon. Such as using military camps for isolation wards, back then tents, – now we have modular systems which are far better. During the Second World War they used Cornwall park for barracks and hospital for returning wounded American soldiers, and as a shoving off point going off to fight in the Pacific.

    It has been said many times that we are ‘at war’ with this virus. Then lets treat it as such but not cut our nose off to spite our faces. Lets use our nouse and modernize this country into a first class social democratic nation that would challenge anything the Scandinavians are doing in the meantime.

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