Latest leaked UMR Poll – Pandemic saving Labour – Winners & Losers

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‘Unprecedented’ poll result as Act leader David Seymour overtakes National leader Judith Collins in new UMR poll

Act leader David Seymour has overtaken National Party leader Judith Collins as preferred Prime Minister in a new UMR poll, a result described as “unprecedented” by the polling company.

The UMR July poll for showed Seymour had risen to 12 per cent as preferred Prime Minister, leapfrogging Collins who was on 10 per cent.

The poll noted that was “an unprecedented result” in its poll – the first time an Act leader had out-polled a National Party leader.

Labour – 48%

National – 24%

ACT – 11%

Green – 8%

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The leaked UMR Poll is an attempt to counter the narrative of the Roy Morgan Poll. The problem is that this Poll started and finished before the full impact of the Hate Speech legislation had sunk in so it dangerously gives Labour a false sense of supremacy the way driving a 4 wheel drive Land Rover to pick up the Kids from an inner-city school does.

Here are the winners and losers

WINNERS

Covid – keeping it out of the country while we see so much of the world still suffering means all the domestic pressures like housing, climate change, inequality and poverty are ignored. As long as Covid is kept out, children could be living in cardboard boxes eating out of the trash and the vast majority of NZ would blame the trash for being delicious rather than criticize Jacinda.

ACT – As TDB has been pointing out since the election, ACT have become the de facto Right wing values party and have maximized the culture war backlash. Our prediction is that ACT will almost eclipse National at the 2023 election which will set up a polarized political spectrum that will make 2026 an explosive political election. The woke hate speech fiasco will only empower ACT more.

EV Rebate – The secret to Key’s 3 term electoral success was that he wooed 30 year old Labour female voters away from Helen and kept them. They didn’t vote for Jacinda in 2017 but after Jacinda’s Covid Leadership they flooded to her in a seismic political shift in 2020. These 45+ women admire Jacinda and they are the most likely to use the EV rebate. Male Ute drivers don’t vote Labour but 45+ women buying EVs sure as hell do! If Labour hold onto this new 45+ female voter demographic they win 2023.

Judith – Despite being upset by Seymour in the preferred PM ratings, she is still the preferred leader of those who do vote National.

Simon Bridges – Simon’s only chance at leadership again is reaching out to the middle National needs to compete electorally with Labour. His new book on masculinity could be that spark.

LOSERS

Mental Health – because National are useless as an Opposition and Covid safety is all we care about, the massive ongoing failures in mental health as highlighted by Mike King continue to be ignored.

Housing – because National are useless as an Opposition and Covid safety is all we care about, the 22 521 people on the emergency housing wait list and the generations locked out of home ownership continue to be ignored.

Child Poverty – because National are useless as an Opposition and Covid safety is all we care about, the 190 000 children in poverty continue to languish.

Climate crisis – as the planet melts from an unprecedented global heating event, the Greens are missing in action.

National – their death spiral into irrelevance continues as ACT cannibalize their vote.

Greens – missing in action. If James Shaw made an announcement and no one noticed, did he really make it? 8% is going no where fast when you consider the lack of delivery in important policy.

Race baiting – National’s race baiting separatism stuff just doesn’t work any longer. Most people under 45 know enough NZ history to recognize historic injustices and aren’t fearful of Maori culture or co-governance.

CONCLUSION

We won’t see the Hate Speech damage until the next poll which is likely to be one of the TV Network Polls.

While Covid rages outside the Shire, we will be grateful to Labour, but that gratitude relies on a smooth vaccine roll out and no more outbreaks which can be traced to border incompetence.

The Hate Speech damage will intensify in August when submissions are being called for.

 

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39 COMMENTS

  1. 22,000 on the emergency housing list? Let’s put them up in motels. While they’re there let’s build lots of houses. Hang about, how easy it is to get builders? They all seem to be busy.
    Rome mightn’t have been built in a day, neither was a massive housing shortage. Neither will 40,000 new homes be.

  2. Might be time for the secret Brethran society to put out some pamphlets on behalf of the National party, given National’s race baiting separatism stuff, just doesn’t work anymore.
    The gun toting society have moved to ACT which only leaves big Chinese donations to keep them afloat.

  3. Nice try Martyn but it won’t convince many. 12% – pah, might as well be zero for all the good it will do.
    All the Govt’ has to do is drop a juicy little policy on the runup to election that us peasants really want and boom, another landslide. The twirker is a dangerous little idiot that gun nuts and hardcore neo liberals adore and there is only small % of them.

    • Suppressing freedom of speech, doesn’t affects a small amount of people, it effects everyone and Labour and Greens are going to lose a lot of votes.

      I can’t see the Daily Blog lasting long or any independent media who says anything against anyone (otherwise known as ‘news’)…. because freedom of speech and tolerance (aka tolerance of others view points on religion, humour, race, sex, gender etc) is a basic right.

      Not to mention that real terrorism starts to flourish in suppressed countries, as the Stasi go after the ‘other’ and our justice starts to become overwhelmed, and full of ‘noise’ and witch hunt prosecutions, that the terrorists get cover.

      It is why Animal Farm is still a classic book. You can’t stop power abuse in what ever form it takes, and sometimes those that overthrow become worse than the original aggressors because they use ‘words and propaganda’ to organise and displace, not just easily understood aggression. It also becomes progressively worse. The Zionists vs Palestinians is a classic example, both groups believe they are right and are persecuted and it doesn’t work to criminalise the speech, because those in power have the advantage to decide – the only solution will eventually be a power share arrangement.

      More violence, suppression and stupidity after the UK implemented their so called ‘hate speech’ laws in 1986. Terrorism before then, was mostly IRA related, that only ended by Good Friday Agreement.

      Sadly real news and social damage goes out the window when nobody is allowed to say anything that could be deemed ‘insulting or alarming’, as throw away comments and witch hunts abound, carried out by the dim.

      Countries that implement suppression of speech, seem to destroy collaboration and independent thinking and ideas rather than encouraging it and eventually fail. Look at Brexit in the UK. They are less united than they used to be, due to forcing through changes that did not work for many, while labelling anyone who disagrees as hate speakers, so they did not have to listen to alternative view points. China, Russia, Saudi Arabia etc are all countries that do not allow freedom of speech.

    • You are probably right more like 65%.
      Luckily for you and thanks to Jacinda, your’s is just a little cough rather than covid.

  4. Why does Labour sit idly by and do next to nothing about housing? Why?

    As John Minto pointed out Labour have turned down Kainga Ora’s request to up state house building. They have left the settings as per National.

    As Chloe Swarbrick pointed out, Labour block MP’s questions as to why Treasury get house prices so wrong, with all the problems that causes moving forward.

    And utterly unsurprisingly the grand announcement of 4000 houses at the Unitec site in Mt Albert 3 years ago has provided 0 houses in 2021 and there is nothing to show for it.

    Why bother being in government if all you want to do is watch this crisis implode?

    How can Labour be this callous and cold? What is wrong with them?

    • The Greens and Labour have sold off more assets to overseas interests than the Natz. They also have pushed through more residents into NZ in particular temporary permits, (students, workers) but then the people never leave. So there is a massive build up of people who arrive, but never leave, or they do leave but are citizens of NZ and can legally hold property here with satellite families on welfare living in them.

    • Why is Labour expected to solve every damn thing in a couple of Election cycles such as the Housing crisis & many other Crisis’s left behind & created by the incompetent & hopeless National Party who denied we had any Homeless problems & did NOTHING, absolutely NOTHING but flood the Nation with cheap immigrant Labour & open our Housing Market up to the World too buy into! No one has any expectation that the National Party will achieve anything when they are in Power but the moment Labour gets elected, they are expected to solve every damn problem in a four year cycle? It’s ridiculous & what’s the point as soon as National get re-elected they stuff everything up again its a vicious circle? And God help us if that Neoliberal Twerker idiot, David Semen gets anywhere near the seat of power it’ll be Rogernomics on steroids! I have a solution to solve the Housing Crisis? Make all Land Leasehold instead of Freehold? Make it so you can only own the House but not the Land under it, in which you would pay a yearly ground rent to the Govt! This would stop Houses being used as a overpriced & unattainable Commodity instead of a Human right & remove the incentive to profit from peoples Homeless misery? Now for the howls of protests & whining from entitled Homeowners & their Speculator mates?

      • Labour and Greens have the same policy as the Natz to privatise by stealth NZ land and assets especially to overseas interests and have mass immigration, so of course they get the same results!

  5. XRAY
    They are quite simply incompetent as clearly show in Martyn’s losers column.
    They don’t care.

    • XRAY and John i think you are both right about Labour not caring. While I was delighted to see Kiri Allen recovered and back in parliment I did wonder where she had got her information from to say she was proud to be back working with Labour.
      Obviously she was not listening to those trapped for years in motels or the 190000 children in poverty or the benefituries going mad spending their extra $20 or for many $8.. She was not listening to Mike King about the appalling state of mental health. She was not listening to nurses as they protested about 4 years of negotiations about equal pay not getting anywhere. She was not listening to the thousands of migrants seperated from their partners and family since covid due to an under resourced immegration dept. She is not listening to the thousands in group,3 still not vaccinated and not knowing when it will happen. Not listening to employers going broke or running at half capacity due to lack of staff and no clue how to get them .
      She may be listening to property owners as they rush to the bank with their profits .

  6. Brilliant summary of current situation. Martyn, I think you are attributing too much to the Hate Speech scenario in terms of Labour losing ground. I think they will lose the election because they achieved nothing. The media will turn against Labour.

    • I agree, Hate speech legislation is an irritant and i expect it to end up an unworkable compromise not worth the agro.

      But what will kill Labour is their lack of progress on so many policy fronts. You just know now they don’t have the competence in government to achieve anything worthwhile. And there is just so much distracting and denial that will be tolerated before the electorate switch off.

    • 1.Audrey Young: Judith Collins takes on National’s warring factions – but how long can she last?

      2.’Unprecedented’ poll result as Act leader David Seymour overtakes National leader Judith Collins in new UMR poll

      Not sure how they can lose when the opposition is hapless, useless and treacherous.

      • Your comments ring true. While my comments on Labour are heartfelt you will notice I did not say anything about the situation improving if they lost power.
        Nationals traditional,policy of backing the person prepared to do the hard yards fits my thinking but I have voted Labour . At the moment I could not say to any one how to vote as while there are a few standouts in each team all four main parties have many faults and I fear for this country because the next 2-3 years are going to be tough for all . The present period is a bit of an Indian summer and I think things could collapse very easily.
        I hope I am wrong !

        • A very rational response Trevor. A new strong National leader, a cleanout of old and dead wood and National could very well take the next election. ACT again would become irrelevant.

      • Brilliant, people have selected memories when it comes to policy that will affect future generations. We are now living those years of Key and national policies.

      • Normally, I like your dad (grandpa) comments, but attacking Judith’s lack of youth, is getting personal. Some might consider it ageist, or even hate speech Bert.
        Shame on you for suggesting David Seymour is more popular because he is younger, and allegedly more male than Judith, or Helen.

        • and allegedly more male than Judith

          Note the “allegedly”.
          Seymour more macho than the Crusher?
          Yeah, right.

  7. The young people I know are leaving NZ. They had hopes and dreams when Jacinda got in. Now they have nothing but depression and despair. Jacinda is a fraud.

    • No, she is essentially a neo literal apologist. And when she is kicked out, another neo liberal will take power. Our aim should be to dismantle the neo liberal edifice wherever it may be. And that includes Labour and Adern.

    • Ex-Labour? Really? Young people are leaving a Covid-free country, to take up residence elsewhere because of Jacinda? You first Ex Labour, revoke your citizenship, your dairy farm and your aertex shirt. You can still access TDB site while you are overseas, or chewing on biltong back in the Transvaal. BTW, did you also agree with the guy who rang up a radio station pretending to be Hone Carter?

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