New Roy Morgan Poll shows TDB theory on ACT cannibalising National

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New Zealand Labour/Greens lead by over 20% points in March with women’s support for Labour underpinning the big lead

The Labour/Greens government support is down 1% point to 57.5% in March. However, support for the Labour Party was up 0.5% points to 45.5% in March while support for the Greens dropped 1.5% points to 12%.

In a worrying sign for the main opposition party support for the National Party dropped 6% points to 23% in March. National is now a large 22.5% points behind Labour – the largest gap since last year’s election when National trailed Labour by a massive 24.4% points.

National’s loss has been the right-wing Act NZ’s gain. Act NZ now has the support of 11% of electors, up by 3.5% points from February. This is a record high level of support for Act NZ beating the previous record of 10.5% set in November 2020 following last year’s election. Support for the Maori Party is unchanged at 1% in March.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 924 electors during March. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed only 4.5% (up 0.5% points) didn’t name a party.

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TDB has been a lone political voice warning that ACT’s extraordinary election result was no fluke and represents a new seismic shift on the Right.

ACT have become the defacto Right Wing Values Party and ever since the bloody Woke gave Seymour the Free Speech ammunition, they, not he, awoke a once dormant vein of right wing political representation.

It started – LIKE I FUCKING WARNED IT WOULD – when the bloody woke identity politics activists went on their deplatforming rampage and tried to strangle free speech off.

In the end, David invited a feminist conference onto Parliament grounds because Masey Uni in Wellington deplatformed it!

The woke ended up making David a free speech hero FFS!

I warned the woke at the time that all they were doing was giving ACT the ammunition ACT would would use against us, and that picking a free speech fight with Seymour could awaken a dormant electoral fault line that will bite us in the arse.

Once ACT started registering 2MPs, it became a viable political vehicle for the Gun festishists and David’s ongoing performance has made him the defacto Leader of the Opposition.

As National have floundered, ACT have looked stronger and people’s gut political values have done the rest.

The problem is ACT are so fucking right wing that the idea of them + National being the answer to 2023’s issues could only be true if we have been invaded by UFOs and they are demanding all members of the Government must be immediately handed over as human sacrifices to our new Alien overlords. In that scenario, voting ACT + National in makes sense.

Outside that scenario, no.

Once left wing and centrist voters realise just how far right ACT really are, the fear of keeping them from Government will outweigh whatever sin Jacinda has committed.

ACT’s sudden and uncritical rise will hurt National and win Labour the 2023 election.

It’s easy to cry wolf when the wolf is a brain hungry zombie dog hunting for human flesh in a premature infants ward.

ACT will become more radical and more hard right and cannibalise National’s vote. There is a real chance that ACT and National could be on level pegging come election 2023. This is great for Labour because none of those hundreds of thousands of 45+ women voters who went from National to Jacinda will go back if the alternative is a hard right ACT-National Government.

The polarisation of hard right politics can be restrained from their worst excesses as long as Seymour is leader, but once he’s gone, expect them to go full blown Free Market Nazi. This will be a war to fight in 2026.

This Poll shows those dynamics now at play.

What will turbo charge ACT will be the looming Free Speech battle where Labour and the Greens will try and tell middle NZ that we are passing the criminalisation of pronoun misuse and enacting a blasphemy law to protect us from the next white supremacy terror attack.

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23 COMMENTS

  1. To date no member of Act has come out with stupid comments that have your eyes rolling like the Greens . They are settling in and keping their heads down nd letting Seymore lead from the front . Talking of leaders are the Green leaders on an extended break or has the enviroment bee fixed.

    • The Greens will be fine. I’m actually pleased with Chloe and Richardo Menedez. They’re young, learning. I think the Greens will be comfortable for along time.

  2. Although good for Labour at the moment there is a solidifying effect happening where Labour, even as a majority government, are in a catatonic state. Their achievements are few and far between and the Prime Minister appearing oblivious to reality. Even the past announcements of millions going into budgets or new initiatives seem to stop there, the extra money seems to never find its targets, mental health being just one such area. Almost like that was the plan.

    The housing crisis is another where Labour’s infuriating preference for tinkering rather than confrontation of the problem will bite it firmly on the backside.

    The point being Labours lead could simply vanish in an instant if National gets its shit together and Labour continue failing to deliver!

    • Sorry but I cannot fathom how you think National can ever take Labour votes. What have National got to offer other than increased house prices, massive immigration and an entitlement to rule?

      • Nat voters migrated to Labour or did you miss that in the last election?

        Honestly Labour MUST start making a difference in the big issues facing us like housing, rather than coming to work to eat their lunch as they’re doing currently otherwise they are very vulnerable.

        • Whilst correct, you missed my point, why return to national, what is the point of difference, not increase the hourly rate whilst business increase their profits again?

          • The point of difference will be when voters say, Labour say nice things but don’t change anything and as far as a government goes, a waste of time. In essence about where they are right now.

            That will be the basis for change and a repeat stuff up in Covid related matters, maybe another lockdown or two in Auckland, and that will happen because Auckland remains the gateway to importing the virus because Labour don’t see the risk of that, plus some of the niggling things like people not feeling safe because of gangs, for example, exacerbated by a weak Labour picked police commissioner, will have voters looking anywhere else in desperation.

            They are a house of cards at the moment and nothing I see makes me think Labour are capable of anything useful let alone seeing the predicament they are in. I pray that I stand to be corrected however.

  3. I wonder why the left is so rabid about “the right””
    To be true the reverse is also true.

    But back to the “fear mongering”about right wing.
    So we are scared of taking personal responsibility for our lives?
    So we need a Nanny state to supply all our needs and wants?
    We need to removal of property rights and the rule of law?
    No reward for effort..ie no rich pricks..as their money will be given to “the poor””?

    So why is that all wrong and to be feared?

    • Copy and Paste straight from a Bomber standard.

      The problem is ACT are so right wing…
      Cut and freeze the Minimum wage
      Interest back on all student loans
      No Kiwsaver subsidy
      Cancel winter energy payment
      Dump all climate crisis legislation
      no more best start payments for families with new borns
      cut welfare payments
      no tax credits for research and development
      cuts to working for families
      $7b a year cut in public services
      Abolish Maori seats
      Abolish Human Rights Commission

      The above is going to work for who??

  4. These polls are simply a measure of how uninformed/misinformed/deluded so many people are.

    All the drivers of economic collapse, social collapse and environmental collapse will continue unabated whatever people might happen to believe.

  5. The woke “Left” are doing all the things they accused the “Right” of being. They shamelessly advocate “cancel culture”, right up to and including deplatforming the President of the United States via ultra woke Twitter “blue checkmarks” (i.e. woke media) because he hurt their feels. Utterly ridiculous. If you can’t successfully argue your talking points in an open forum and need to resort to cancelling them in order to create an echo chamber then you are worse than they are. I guess the Orwellian nightmare of “1984” and “Animal Farm” was a critique of the left, so I shouldn’t be surprised that is where we are now.

    • ‘I guess the Orwellian nightmare of “1984” and “Animal Farm” was a critique of the left, so I shouldn’t be surprised that is where we are now.’

      That might be the case if NZ actually had a ‘left’ government.

      As things stand, this LINO (Labour In Name Only) government is as far to the ‘right’ as it can possibly be without being an overtly fascist government. It is clearly a covertly fascist government, dedicated to the wants of banks, corporations and opportunists, and works on the basis of bugger everyone else, whilst pretending to be something quite different.

      Even the existential issue of the times we live -Planetary Meltdown- in has been commodified and commercialisd and subjected to the same kind of ‘newspeak’, dpublespeak’ via the socalled Climate Commission, which has generated a whole load of business-as-usual bollocks, as required by ‘the system’.

      Next thing we know, NZ will be dragged into the America fascists’ attempt to prise Russia out of Sevastapol, which has a ZERO chance of success. We are already being subjected to the ‘two minutes of hate’ via constant vilification of Russia and everything Russian, with all sorts of ridiculous propaganda churned out by the American fascists and repeated ad nauseum by the corporate NZ media, with no correct narrative issued by the government on ANYTHING.

      If you want the truth about ANYTHING -from the state of our hospitals and schools, to the state of the environment, to the state of our finances, to the future of tourism- don’t ask the government: you will get only stonewalling or lies.

      By the way, below is a link to what is REALLY happening in Ukraine, and it is not looking at all good for the western world: the neo-nazis in Ukraine have declared war on Russia!

      But you won’t hear that from the bought-and-paid-for corporate media nor from the government; all you’ll hear from the corporate media and the government (if you hear anything at all!) is “Russian aggression”.

      However, despite all that, can be thankful we’re not in Germany, or France, or Britain, or any of the other ‘basket case’ nations the neoliberals have created, and which are headed for an even faster collapse than NZ.

      Where the government does have a huge advantage in controlling the narrative is that the bulk of the populace absolutely refuses to become informed about anything, and relies on the government propaganda for their own narratives.

      ‘Escobar: Ukraine Redux – War, Russophobia, & Pipelineistan’

      https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-ukraine-redux-war-russophobia-pipelineistan

      By the way, there is no housing crisis. There is no health crisis. There is no energy crisis. There is no environmental crisis. There is no financial crisis, There is no economic crisis. We are on track for a “‘better, brighter future”.

      Where have I heard that before?

      • ” That might be the case if NZ actually had a ‘left’ government.

        As things stand, this LINO (Labour In Name Only) government is as far to the ‘right’ as it can possibly be without being an overtly fascist government. It is clearly a covertly fascist government, dedicated to the wants of banks, corporations and opportunists, and works on the basis of bugger everyone else, whilst pretending to be something quite different ”

        The neoliberal consensus removed the left / right divide in 1984. With the exception of the formation of the Alliance in 1991 there has been no real left wing representation on the left.
        That has meant that the many who are victims of this cruel uneven system have no voice.
        The Greens are probably the closest but have compromised themselves in not standing firm on the principles they say the support and getting side-tracked on meaningless trivia.
        There is no real agitation or outspoken positions on the real enemy and the is this market economy. It is never questioned in any of the pointless debates on the ever increasing crises these neoliberal polices have created and will never solve the many injustices and corruption that now have been given free licence to occur.

  6. Our preoccupation with infantile accusations of what constitutes “hate” while understandable in orwellian terms, masks the utter incapacity of our current model to actually deliver to the mass the egregious wealth of the few, so that we can just get on with resolving the actual problem.
    A few green shoots here & there but not enough.
    Martyn, enough profane swears in your polemic please. Gravitas are you.

  7. I don’t see this as a left / right issue, I see it as a “fiddling while Rome burns” issue. The current government has seduced gullible voters with superficial kindness flim-flammery whilst all of the quality of life indicators for everyone in NZ (including the government’s support base and core constituency) has been going sharply south for almost four years. I know people who were renting a year ago who are now in emergency accommodation. I see people paying absurd rents for what were previously affordable housing. I see a greater dependence on the State rather than a desire for actual opportunity. I see working groups as a substitute for leadership and action. I see incredible amounts of taxpayer dollars being thrown at problems in the hope that they will disappear instead of practical planning and implementation to ameliorate issues. I see chickens coming home to roost in the next two years.

  8. Why would those on the right care when Ardern and co act like a right wing government anyway? The thing that astounds me, is how those on the left wont call Jacinda out on her bullshit and are quite happy to go along with her nonexistent transformation as long as she is leading in the polls. You so called progressives arent progressive at all. You’re a bunch of whiney kids who accept mediocrity because red team good, blue team bad. How truly pathetic.

  9. A friend of mine was at a dinner party with Seymour, she talked to him over a few drinks. She tells me his attitude to poor people is even worse up close, in real life

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