The Labour/Greens government support is down 1% point to 57.5% in March. However, support for the Labour Party was up 0.5% points to 45.5% in March while support for the Greens dropped 1.5% points to 12%.
In a worrying sign for the main opposition party support for the National Party dropped 6% points to 23% in March. National is now a large 22.5% points behind Labour – the largest gap since last year’s election when National trailed Labour by a massive 24.4% points.
National’s loss has been the right-wing Act NZ’s gain. Act NZ now has the support of 11% of electors, up by 3.5% points from February. This is a record high level of support for Act NZ beating the previous record of 10.5% set in November 2020 following last year’s election. Support for the Maori Party is unchanged at 1% in March.
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 924 electors during March. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed only 4.5% (up 0.5% points) didn’t name a party.
TDB has been a lone political voice warning that ACT’s extraordinary election result was no fluke and represents a new seismic shift on the Right.
ACT have become the defacto Right Wing Values Party and ever since the bloody Woke gave Seymour the Free Speech ammunition, they, not he, awoke a once dormant vein of right wing political representation.
It started – LIKE I FUCKING WARNED IT WOULD – when the bloody woke identity politics activists went on their deplatforming rampage and tried to strangle free speech off.
In the end, David invited a feminist conference onto Parliament grounds because Masey Uni in Wellington deplatformed it!
The woke ended up making David a free speech hero FFS!
I warned the woke at the time that all they were doing was giving ACT the ammunition ACT would would use against us, and that picking a free speech fight with Seymour could awaken a dormant electoral fault line that will bite us in the arse.
Once ACT started registering 2MPs, it became a viable political vehicle for the Gun festishists and David’s ongoing performance has made him the defacto Leader of the Opposition.
As National have floundered, ACT have looked stronger and people’s gut political values have done the rest.
The problem is ACT are so fucking right wing that the idea of them + National being the answer to 2023’s issues could only be true if we have been invaded by UFOs and they are demanding all members of the Government must be immediately handed over as human sacrifices to our new Alien overlords. In that scenario, voting ACT + National in makes sense.
Outside that scenario, no.
Once left wing and centrist voters realise just how far right ACT really are, the fear of keeping them from Government will outweigh whatever sin Jacinda has committed.
ACT’s sudden and uncritical rise will hurt National and win Labour the 2023 election.
It’s easy to cry wolf when the wolf is a brain hungry zombie dog hunting for human flesh in a premature infants ward.
ACT will become more radical and more hard right and cannibalise National’s vote. There is a real chance that ACT and National could be on level pegging come election 2023. This is great for Labour because none of those hundreds of thousands of 45+ women voters who went from National to Jacinda will go back if the alternative is a hard right ACT-National Government.
The polarisation of hard right politics can be restrained from their worst excesses as long as Seymour is leader, but once he’s gone, expect them to go full blown Free Market Nazi. This will be a war to fight in 2026.
This Poll shows those dynamics now at play.
What will turbo charge ACT will be the looming Free Speech battle where Labour and the Greens will try and tell middle NZ that we are passing the criminalisation of pronoun misuse and enacting a blasphemy law to protect us from the next white supremacy terror attack.
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