Why we need to prepare for the next Covid lockdown in NZ this Summer

The only thing lethal enough to kill Coronovirus is bleach and Mike Hosking

The new UK strain is so many times more contagious, that their current level 4 lockdown procedures which would see a 30% reduction of transmission for the older Covid version would in fact see a 30% increase of transmission for the new mutation.

Mathematically for every 1000 Covid patients through our quarantine, 1 is going to get through.

The idea that the latest strain won’t find a way in isn’t credible and that’s why New Zealand must brace for another Level 4 Lockdown before the end of Summer.

We aren’t publicly doing enough in the Track and Trace front to give us enough warning when someone comes into a hospital sick and the far quicker transfer of the new strain means it will be well away in the Community before we are even aware of it.

Jacinda either bites the bullet and puts us back into lockdown with the extra wage subsidy and care we did last time or she puts all the previous sacrifice at risk.

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If the virus comes through into the community because of perceived incompetence, the Government will suffer, if the lockdown can blunt any mass public health event while the rest of the planet burns with it, the Government will be hailed again as saviours.

The only political risk is the July arrival deadline for the vaccinations in NZ. If the outbreak occurs before then, the Government will have to explain why we don’t have the vaccinations when we need them.

Covid and protecting NZ from a mass public health emergency is still going to dominate everything else in 2021.

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  1. I agree with 80+% of what you write Martyn, but this seems ‘a bridge too far, way too soon’ for me.

    I get the argument up to…. ‘so we must lock down’…… even though we don’t have Covid in our community.

    Surely if you are this worried, what other options have you considered? And I don’t mean to be playing the ‘death cult capitalist’ options/denial game.

    How about:
    1) Longer Govt run quarantine periods.
    2) More strenuous tracking of those just returned.
    3) Flights from the USA/UK/RSA etc must only have people onboard from those countries, so no mixing with other countries passengers, so we can identify those more likely to have this variant upon arrival.
    4) Home isolation for returnees for a month (or more), with local organised support to deliver food etc.
    5) Use the two known drugs that seem to work (in most countries) and honest trials show them to be about as effectively as these rushed drugs, now in the human guinea pig phase of testing.
    The propaganda press reports the results from the bad trials but don’t report when the trials are stopped for being fake or purposely in error. e.g. the Lancet debacle. IMHO so big Pharma can make a huge profit.
    e.g. Hydroxychloroquine (a 100 years ish of use and almost zero side effects UNLESS it’s recent and in countries with big pharma political influence….hummmm) or Ivermectin, being used for about 50 years with the ‘same results’.

    I’m sure others on here could also come up with a few better ideas than I can think of, first thing in the morning.

    I agree with the sentiment of getting ahead of this, however it does seem that if we don’t consider other reasonable options, the result is, a lockdown if the country does have a Covid problem and a lock down if it doesn’t.
    Such an step should surely ONLY be a (sensible) last resort.

  2. Why are we at least not banning entries from high risk countries until further notice, UK, US, India, Russia, South Africa, etc, etc, etc?

    This being too kind to the rest of the world puts us at far too high a risk for absolutely no gain.

    • The reason they won’t ‘ban’ people is simple. It’s against the UN rules therefore the Blairite doesn’t want to sully her chances of the top job by placing country over the UN.

      I too believe another lockdown is extremely likely. Interestingly I was talking to a high up person in the Health Ministry over the holiday break and originally the ministry wanted quarantine in the army/air force bases. The government declined this advice due to economic reasons (i.e. to keep the hotel sector up and running).

      The issue now for the Blairite and Grunter is that they played all their economic cards upfront. Covid was always going to be a marathon not a sprint. No point being first at 5kms if you sink without a trace after 20kms. Shut down again for 3-4 weeks and see if the economy bounces back again. From a political point of view it is going to be fascinating how this government manages the next 18 months.

  3. The Main steam media wouldn’t hype this story to the max, would they? Who could reasonably be permitted to question our authorities? What does this New strain mean for the current, and future vaccine program? So many questions, so few oracles … trust me

  4. Those that call for total bans pobviously do not have family overseas . If they lose their job they do not qualify for a benefit or any of the other helping hand arrangements put in place by that countries government. By all means ask for a preflight test and possibly a home dention period after the 2 weeks official quarantine but a total ban is a step to far . Many of these people are going to be needed for theirs skills to rebuild this countries economy when this settles down in a year or two.
    I wonder why we are dragging the chain on vaccination at least for those on the front line. In today paper it seems many of these heros are doing it tough due solely to the work they are doing.

  5. I strongly agree that a sudden lockdown is likely. Now is the time to ensure you have your basic essentials stored up.

    Consider the speed with which everyone was locked into the Hamilton Court – One moment to the next.

  6. I want to know why for the international arrivals who tested positive for Covid in managed isolation in NZ between 18 June 2020 and 7 January 2021 (405 people, MOH website) no one died due to the virus. The world death rate per positive cases is one in 47.

  7. It’s a joke what goes on. The mandatory masking on public transport in Auckland is at best followed by half of the passengers at most times. Even many drivers do not wear any masks anymore. The government brought in a law that very many do not follow, and nobody is enforcing it.

    That is what goes on now. Also do few use the QR Codes and scan them with a mobile app. Lists put out for customers to sign are in many places only taken seriously by a fraction of the customers. I see this all the times at the supermarkets and other shops I go to.

    If the UK or South African variant gets into the community here, we will indeed have a very, very serious situation. With the casual and happy go lucky Kiwis (that is the majority of them) behaving as they do, we will be in much greater shit than the UK is.

    Perhaps New Zealand deserves such a wake up shake up event?

    I have little trust in the government coping well. Much that was hailed and reported during past lockdowns was largely BS and propaganda. They were learning as they went along, and they had luck on their side, so it did not get out of hand.

    You cannot rely on luck though.

  8. The need for a lockdown anywhere in the world needs to be reassessed in the light of new information around treatment using Ivermectin. It is proven to be highly effective and quick, with very few side effects and is used as a prophylactic with great success.

    There have been around 30 studies specific to COVID-19. Even long haul C-19 shows improvement.

    Although it is commonly believed that a vaccine means you cannot contract COVID, this is not true. The vaccine reduces symptoms. Ivermectin does that too, doesn’t come with the risk of a rushed vaccination trial, and costs significantly less.

    The warnings about side effects of Ivermectin have not been shown to have manifested in the clinical trials either, so not sure what the hold up is.

  9. Agree about lockdown. Although we need to remember that the new contagious strain made it into the community in Queensland and the quick, severe three day lockdown seems to have worked.

    The public need to do their bit and relentlessly scan. During holiday time they seem to think that they are on holiday from being vigilant.

    But yes agree another. Lockdown on the cards.

    One thing I think we should only be allowing people from hard hit countries back on humanitarian grounds ie no job, no income, high risk health group or seriously ill relatives here. Otherwise, don’t come

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