The new UK strain is so many times more contagious, that their current level 4 lockdown procedures which would see a 30% reduction of transmission for the older Covid version would in fact see a 30% increase of transmission for the new mutation.
Mathematically for every 1000 Covid patients through our quarantine, 1 is going to get through.
The idea that the latest strain won’t find a way in isn’t credible and that’s why New Zealand must brace for another Level 4 Lockdown before the end of Summer.
We aren’t publicly doing enough in the Track and Trace front to give us enough warning when someone comes into a hospital sick and the far quicker transfer of the new strain means it will be well away in the Community before we are even aware of it.
Jacinda either bites the bullet and puts us back into lockdown with the extra wage subsidy and care we did last time or she puts all the previous sacrifice at risk.
If the virus comes through into the community because of perceived incompetence, the Government will suffer, if the lockdown can blunt any mass public health event while the rest of the planet burns with it, the Government will be hailed again as saviours.
The only political risk is the July arrival deadline for the vaccinations in NZ. If the outbreak occurs before then, the Government will have to explain why we don’t have the vaccinations when we need them.
Covid and protecting NZ from a mass public health emergency is still going to dominate everything else in 2021.
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