Domestic Political Risks for 2021 NZ 

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2021 is when the shit really hits the fan. The knock on impact of the pandemic will cause immense social dislocations amongst intense geopolitical strain.

New Zealand can not be immune to those stresses and strains.

Covid – It will continue to disrupt enormously. The issues of rolling out this vaccine to everyone will be a huge challenge that will need to become an annual ritual requiring 75% to gain herd immunity. The logistics of that are huge and we will be lucky to reach 75% globally by the end of 2022, so the economic damage won’t really start healing for another 2 years and we will continue having the borders closed. This will impact hyper tourism, exploitation of migrant workers and exploitation of international students.

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Plan B Death Cult Capitalists – The realisation by those in NZ who make money from hyper tourism, exploiting migrant workers and exploiting international students will be that the NZ domestic population are more than happy to keep the borders shut to stave off the images of pandemic that are coming out of Europe and America. This means the Death Cult Capitalists have to scare Kiwis into seeing the economic damage as greater than the public health carnage. Expect the Death Cult Capitalists to get more and more shrill as their wealth starts to become impacted by the border shut down.

Rent Rise Protests – Brendon Harre makes the devastating point that the current imbalance in home ownership will strip the poor bare in NZ.

The excruciating explosion in house prices that Labour have fuelled with billions poured into corporate banks for property speculators over the last few months will cascade down into profit maximisation of housing as a commodity.

That means evil rent rises in an over heated market that is close to boiling point.

Jacinda’s kindness means jack shit if people are thrown onto the streets because the unregulated, untaxed property speculation market has erupted AFTER her Government fed the machine AND ruled out a capital gains tax.

What’s the point of saving us from a virus if you can’t pay the rent?

The neoliberal NZ experiment has spawned a baby boomer subdivided middle class whose only illusion of wealth is the increasing property valuations generated by unfettered over seas buyers and slum lord property speculators.

Rent Rise Protests is the spark.

Unemployment, poverty, homelessness and inequality to rise – We are expecting 70 000 more people on welfare, joblessness to spike and with those pressures, homelessness will rise as inequality deepens. 22 000 are on social housing waiting lists, 1 in 5 children are in poverty and property speculators are driving generations out of home ownership.

Crime Wave – The 501s now have their supply chains for South American Cartel meth established alongside a stand over regime on the domestic gangs. Expect more brain haemorrhages as older meth users smoke purer and cheaper meth and an explosion of violent crime aimed against Dairies and Bottle Stores as desperate users try to rob for cash. Guns are pouring into the country because of the meth trade. This alongside the economic fall out of the pandemic will see a crime wave across the country which will give National their first chance to play the law and order card. There is also growing extremism from prisoners who have served long sentences without any rehabilitation.

Ihumātao whiplash – The deal at Ihumātao is going to spark a serious of similar occupations around the country as other Māori rise up against unjust previous agreements.

Free Speech implosion – The Hate Speech legislation has the potential of igniting a debate the Left aren’t ready to argue convincingly. The backlash by the woke in social media feeds will have people fearing less for minorities exposed to hate speech and fear more being accused of hate speech.

Radicalisation & Polarisation – With all the economic stresses and ease of disinformation, expect radicalisation and polarisation to build, not dissipate.

Climate Crisis – We will face droughts, cyclones, forest fires and extreme rainfall events. The damages will mount alarmingly. Labour and the Greens will push for recommendations early in the year for emission cut backs and the Agricultural Lobby will faint at any mention of methane inclusion. Water reforms will keep David Parker too busy to do anything else.

Labour & Jacinda – Jacinda will increasingly be called on by global partners to front and lead more geopolitical fronts. Labour’s Caucus will baulk at the lack of actual transformative change and start to agitate for far more than Grant wants to pay for.

National – Will continue to wander for 40 days and 40 nights in the desert. Judith will use the crime wave to promise public floggings, but National are too deeply dysfunctional to offer a credible alternative.

Figuratively & literally next to useless

Greens – Will increasingly look like they are propping up mediocrity and tepid nothingness. Won’t be able to help themselves over the Hate Speech legislation. Members will get increasingly frustrated by the lack of anything meaningful.

ACT – Will manipulate the Free Speech debate and continue to cannibalise National vote. Will crack 10%.

Māori Party – Have so many targets to shoot at, will continue to hold the Government’s feet to the fire.

 

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15 COMMENTS

  1. As much as the labour purists hate the death cult capitalists it needs them to create the wealth and MONEY needed to make transformative social change. That’s the problem. Money doesn’t grow on trees, businesses produce it, and all those things we need desperately like better paid jobs and more of them only come from productivity and growing the economy or business. There is no more money unless we print it and although many can’t see a problem with that, it’s only real growth that will fix the financial issues. So around in a circle we go, the only way to alleviate the current problems in a timely way is to redistribute the wealth. Not only from business but from us as well. We know whats required, we just need a Government with the guts to do it.

    • ‘Money doesn’t grow on trees, businesses produce it’

      You are both right and wrong in those statements.

      Money doesn’t grow on trees; it is created out of thin air by banks.

      It could be argued that money does grow on trees insofar as fruit grow on a tree has monetary value created by nature.

      Businesses certainly don’t produce it: all they do is transfer money from one place to another. Adding mark-ups to goods and selling them at a higher price doesn’t create money. It simply dilutes the value of money already in the system. And ALL businesses wreck the environment -the cost of which is far greater than any short-term gains in computer digits.

      • Oh my God your ignorance is mind-blowing.
        Banks indeed create the money but if businesses don’t produce goods and services in line with the monetary supply, then the value of the currency depreciates to devastating effect as an increased supply of money chases too few tradeable goods and services.
        This is how Zimbabwe no longer have a national currency.
        Either take the time to learn the full story or stop posting about the subject, because it is dangerous to have others influenced by your ignorance.

        • Oh my God your ignorance is mind-blowing.
          Business create ideas, employees produce the goods.
          Either take the time to learn the full story or stop posting about the subject, because it is dangerous to have others influenced by your ignorance

        • Your ignorance is more than mind-blowing; it is truly epic!

          Businesses in industrial nations like NZ convert fossil fuels into waste.

          Businesses use fiat currencies to convert fossil fuels into waste.

          With no fossil fuels (exactly where we are headed) there will be no businesses [in the generally accepted meaning of the word].

  2. That Green Party picture…guess the 50/50 gender split was just a word salad to make them seem ‘inclusive’ eh?

    There will be NO govt policy or actual changes in the next 3yrs that you crave Martyn, we all know it but it keeps you busy with blog posts/threads day dreaming about them each day.

    Status Quo is the MO of this Govt for last 3yrs and nothing will dramatically change (some tinkering about the edges only) for the next 3 yrs, and thats why im not too bothered about Adern getting a majority govt.

    • The Green Party pic and sex split?

      Now the Green Party has embraced (US neoliberal created ideology of) gender self ID (no debate, all in), all it will take is for a couple of the women to declare themselves male, change their pronouns, and GP MPs will cheer them as stunning and brave. And the idea of a near 50/50 male/female split of GP MPs becomes obsolete.

      Flipping on original, underlying ideals and principles has become very easy for the current GP.

      It became evident to me during the last election that, while a Labour-led government was preferable to a Nat one, the parliamentary term would require resorting to those other democratic processes – lobbying MPs, protesting, letters to editors, etc.

  3. Well, that’s certainly a grim view of ’21.
    But there are alternatives to assuming the sitting duck position.
    Firstly, good people fighting back against the tyranny of arse holes might be a start.
    Keep our borders closed down. I mean duh, right?
    Tax foreign banking until it withers and dies.
    Tax the capital on property trading on all but one’s home.
    Release the farmer! Start by pulling them out from under the mountain of bullshit the national party have been burying them under since about 1920 and let them provide our foods and finances. ( Which the already do except as of now they’re being parasitised and exploited and generally treated like shit. )
    Teach people how to build basic ( Or not so basic ) housing complete with solar power/heating, composting sewer systems and rain water harvesting. ( I did that. I took two 4 M lengths of polycarbonate, mounted them together and collected rain water which I filtered and used. Not fucking rocket surgery people.
    AO/NZ MUST start to think laterally and with originality and flare or we’re fucked.
    We must come try understand that our politicians must do what WE tell them. Not the other fucking way around because they’re gone. Our politicians are all bought and paid for and now reside in the pockets of someone else.
    Be brave, be kind and rejoice that we’re a scant few million on a huge country that’s almost mind bogglingly rich in vital, essential resources.
    Despite @ MB’s dire predictions for the coming months and years, we’re ok. We’re a lot better off than many others and that’s there problem I hasten to add but that doesn’t mean we can’t offer help where we can. We’re not trumpophiles yet.
    Now. Know your enemy. This may seem simplistic but get over it. xx
    Boingboing.net/
    “Psychopaths favour right-wing authoritarianism, finds study”
    https://boingboing.net/2020/12/24/psychopaths-favor-right-wing-authoritarianism-finds-study.html

  4. The property market is a fools paradise and I am continually amazed our PM and our government can’t see it.

    Aside from those trading in this misery for a quick buck, no property owner is getting richer. You can’t sell your house and cash up, not unless it’s a rural property miles from anywhere. And even then one had to compete in a bear pit with the scum investors.

    It’s genuinely hard to say what is more damaging to society at the moment, meth or the property market?

  5. We don’t have a vaccine for HIV or even the flu that has to be renewed yearly. A vaccine will not sort Covid permanently and this will have immense continuing impact. The mutant wave now hitting the U$K is the worst ever and threatens to overwhelm its hospital system. That and Climate Change we are in a new era : The 20c growth bonanza is long gone we are getting increasing consequences from our fossil fuel burning, the 21st century will beat human civilisation to sh*t. We have exponential climate change open ended, the sixth mass extinction the oceans fished out and dying. The good times are gone.
    We have a polarised society polarising accelerating this is devastating for social cohesion as we enter the great decline in front of us we are divided people preyed on by the rich and a government who are wagged by the tail of the F.I.R.E sector and the speculator class ( oops sorry property investment class!)

  6. Colonists happy to suppress the No Zealand underclass’ wages for a residency stamp ain’t gonna protest rents, Boomber…. get real…

  7. I should have voted Maori. Although they have a significant socially conservative wing at least they actually give a shit about people at the bottom of the pile. Labour and increasingly the Greens don’t.

  8. ‘The neoliberal NZ experiment has spawned a baby boomer subdivided middle class whose only illusion of wealth is the increasing property valuations generated by unfettered over seas buyers and slum lord property speculators.’

    Yes. But also a factor is the stampede of people (mostly New Zealanders) coming to NZ to escape rapidly deteriorating conditions overseas. Despite all the terrible things happening in NZ, matters are so bad elsewhere it would not be an exaggeration to say 100 million would come here if they could.

    Matters in the US are SO BAD Charles Hugh Smith is predicting financial meltdown in 2021, and the rapid evaporation of the illusion of wealth:But tides do not run in one direction forever, and a revolt against the unprecedented inequality that heavily favors the top 10% is not “impossible,” it’s a certainty. The top 10% are accustomed to being admired and respected for their accomplishments, expertise, wise investing and professional acumen. They are accustomed to viewing themselves as the essential technocrat class that keeps the U.S. system functioning.

    The problem with this self-congratulatory perspective is the U.S. system is now in thrall to process rather than results. The technocrat class has been trained to follow needlessly complex procedures and compliance processes as the path to professional advancement while avoiding accountability for the increasingly dismal results of America’s bloated, sclerotic, insider-dominated systems…..

    The top 10%–the rentier-technocrat class–will find the bottom 90% can no longer pay their rent, insurance, etc.–all the “services” that employ and enrich the top 10%. In other words, the losses as unproductive complexity unravels will finally fall on the top 10%, many of whom have been protected from exposure to market forces and risk…

    .When the top 10%’s bubble pops in 2021, the loss of illusions/delusions of security and wealth will be shattering to all those who believed artifice and illusory “wealth” were real. What’s real is the tide of financialization and globalization reversed over a year ago. The tide is now running out, but few loading their “wealth” into lifeboats have noticed–yet.’

    https://www.oftwominds.com/blogdec20/top-10-bubble12-20.html

    If Jacinda and company think they can stop the tide of meltdown by throwing yet more ‘printed’ money at the problem, they are insane. More money-printing just makes everything worse faster.

    ‘When the top 10%’s bubble pops in 2021, the loss of illusions/delusions of security and wealth will be shattering to all those who believed artifice and illusory “wealth” were real.’

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