I’m actually very nervous about the US election, Trump is so erratic anything is possible here and the speed with which things can spiral out of control and become a cascade event are alarmingly high.
BEST CASE SCENARIO:
Biden wins an overwhelming majority on Election night that not even Trump can pretend doesn’t exist and Trump has no option but to leave. Oh he’ll stomp and scream and throw a tantrum, but there’s no pathway open to him for holding onto the White House. Hopefully he sulks and disappears.
WORST CASE SCENARIO:
Trump wins a tiny majority on Election night and before the mail in votes are even counted, declares victory and starts legal proceedings to hold up the mail in counts. He stretches this out for 35 days and ends up with the Supreme Court (the one he has stacked) to decide the election.
If Trump steals the election and calls on his armed militia to protect him, all hell will break lose and NZ will need to say something.
This is very dangerous and uncharted territory we are facing here and the speed of immediate escalation is upon us.
Is Trump as dangerously unhinged as we fear or is he just a shallow bully who once challenged fades away?
We are about to find out.
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There is one other possible result. That Trump wins by a clear majority on the night , only slightly reduced by mail in votes favouring Biden.
Trump’s rallies are reportedly massively well attended, Biden’s empty. There has been a huge early vote with some states recording numbers voting by Friday in excess of the total vote 4yrs ago. Historically a very high turnout has favoured the incumbent.
It is puzzling to understand how the Democrat establishment have chosen to put up a candidate in Bidens’ state of mental condition. From a non partisan perspective he seems like a dreadful liability. The only rational I can see is that he his totally inner circle and so can be relied on to prevent the ongoing investigations into the CIA and other spy networks that circled to protect Hillary and co from investigation and Russiagate.
Polsters interviewed in the US are being very cautious in predicting the outcome in spite of the solidarity of pole results in favour of Biden, saying that the last few days can change minds. This i think is a ploy to prepare the electorate for the contrast between their pols and the electoral result. That it was a change in sentiment at the last minute rather than that the polls are being used to attempt to influence the sentiment rather than to inform the public in concert with almost all of the media.
A decisive win for Trump will demonstrate that just about all you read and here on Trump’s popularity is deliberate lying.
What a mess .
D J S
“Trump’s rallies are reportedly massively well attended, Biden’s empty. ”
Duh, that’s because Biden doesn’t hold rallies due to C19 guidelines.
You are right about the Democrats being rotten to the core.
Kustler did a great piece on it
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CLUSTERFUCK NATION – BLOGOctober 23, 2020
Bleeding Out
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“The difference between you and me,” Mr. Trump said to the ever more ghostly Joe Biden, fading mentally late in the action on the debate stage, “is that I’m not a politician and you are, and you’re a crooked politician.”
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/bleeding-out/
It pays to listen to what Americans are saying, rather than what outsiders think they are saying.
So, the choice is between a self-serving liar who is dripping with corruption but whose crimes are concealed by the system, and a self-serving liar whose crimes are not concealed by the system.
Of the two, the latter is possibly the better.
But as Charles Hugh Smith has pointed out, it really will make little difference at this late phase in the game because everything is staged..
https://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct20/staged10-20.html
Chris Hedges latest is titled ‘The Politics of Cultural Despair’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxSN4ip_F6M
I think his name is James Howard Kunstler, rather than Kustler.
And I agree re: the two candidates. You basically ONLY hear about Trumps many short falls, but invariable NOT of any of Biden’s equally MANY corruptions, and especially not about Hitlery Clinton at the last election/fiasco
Yes we will have to say something in that circumstance, I would say it will be some facile remark about the “large majority” of support for Trump and how there is no mandate for change… Or possibly a courageous silence.
Jack Tame looked edgy and wide-eyed when he was filming the shops and other buildings being boarded up along Pennsylvania Ave, Washington DC. And the seriousness of those who were hammering up the boards… It looked like they were preparing for a category 5 hurricane, not for an election. Incredible.
Or if Biden wis a sining of TPPA and a china trade agreement will complete the war loving Munitions industry by pressuring Biden to go to war with Russia a long sought goal from the NATO.
Trump was anti-war but Biden has been inside Governments for 40 years fighting all those phony wars so be careful what you wish for.
There is no best case scenario. The Dems will be disastrous. Trump is disastrous. The United States is disastrous.
‘If Trump steals the election and calls on his armed militia to protect him, all hell will break lose and NZ will need to say something.’
Martyn Bradbury
In this worst case scenario. (which already has been, shown through Fox News propaganda, will include hostility to New Zealand)
I wonder at the dilemma posed for our state security forces, linked to the US through 5 eyes and other defence, (read war), agreements.
Will our staten security forces stay loyal to New Zealand democratic norms, and cut all ties with their US taskmaster?
Or work to undermine our government and democracy on US orders?
Trump has stacked SCOTUS, but not all conservatives are Trumpists.
Trump has fervent support amongst his base but outside the elected Republican representatives who are terrified of this base his support amongst old school conservatives isn’t anywhere near as firm.
I don’t believe the court would risk the inevitable civil chaos that would erupt if they enabled obvious vote counting suppression.
There are two guaranteed results in the usa election …..
1) A old corrupt neo-lib rapist will be the next usa President
2) Thanks to the huge amount of outside meddling / Benjamines ,,, the election has been rigged so that Israel ALWAYS wins …. Israel gets the result that its paid for.
Balls out Misdirection ——Finger wagging and threats over Russian / Iran interference and influence ….
https://youtu.be/U1bQzcx9iBE?list=LL
https://youtu.be/kN6QD_icRQU
In three of the main US states youth voting is up by …700% !
Early voting by 18- to 29-year-olds is up in every state CIRCLE [Tuft University Research Group] is tracking, as compared to votes cast by the same date in 2016. In Florida, North Carolina and Michigan — three major battleground states — voters under 29 have cast a combined 607,907 early votes, where the same age and geographic group only cast 76,829 ballots at the same point in 2016: an almost 700 percent increase. In 2016, Donald Trump won Michigan by a mere 10,704 votes.
Pre-election polling, also from Tufts University, shows the top issue for youth across racial and ethnic groups is the environment or climate change, followed closely by racism, and health care access and affordability. For the youngest voters, climate is just one of multiple existential threats, with a palpably finite window to address it. Full article at: Youth Activists are Transforming the Election.
If Trump can block evey path to 270 electoral college votes for Biden, apart from Pennsylvania, we could see try and use the Supreme Court to block the awarding of the states votes to Biden.
The House in the state is Republican controlled and they could award the EC votes to Trump.
He could win that way, despite being 5% behind in the polls. A majority of Americans and a majority of democratic nations would not see the result as a democratic one – but it would also end respect fro SCOTUS and call into question the continuance of the constitutional republic itself. There are more interests involved here than Trump’s alone – which is why I do not think he can rely on SCOTUS to do his bidding.
In that scenario expect him to be disappointed by the betrayal of an ungrateful conservative right and ungrateful GOP who exploited his popularist vulgarity to win power (generational power in SCOTUS and in a now gerrymandered electoral system). But for them, that victory is not be frittered away keeping him in office. So they will remove him to better exploit what he has helped them achieve. Lincoln Project explained.
The American elites have selected Biden to calm things down and keep the machine running. But the same elites have been busy undermining the whole system. There is a tsunami coming that they can’t stop, with all their fraud and white collar crime and gerrymanders.
The banksters and Washington DC has seriously pissed off the vast middle & working class of America. The decadent coastal liberal international class in Silicon Valley and New York have sold out and ripped off and oppressed the Christian “flyover” states.
The states are the only place where democracy still functions and the path forward for the US is going to be more local. The Union in its current form has to break up, because the divisions are too deep. They have a long way to fall, from being a global hyperpower, to a fading empire in retreat, because they have sold out the very thing that made them strong; their industrial base and strong working class.
ABC in Aussie has a bit more detail on scenarios:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-01/what-happens-if-trump-wins-what-happens-if-trump-loses/12830162
Things about the general situation I would like to note:
1) Civil unrest from the BLM antifa crowd is forecast with a narrow trump or Biden win, eg hyperpartisanship is dumb and dangerous for both left and right and there are
2) it’s likely that the situation is not as bad as it seems but constant media stoking and trump hate may make it a self fulfilling prophecy (violence from dems or republicans)
I agree the best outcome is a clear cut win either way.
ABC in Aussie has a bit more detail on scenarios:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-01/what-happens-if-trump-wins-what-happens-if-trump-loses/12830162
Things about the general situation I would like to note:
1) Civil unrest from the BLM antifa crowd is forecast with a narrow trump or Biden win, eg hyperpartisanship is dumb and dangerous for both left and right and there are those on both sides that will cynically exploit an opportunity.
2) it’s likely that the situation is not as bad as it seems but constant media stoking and trump hate may make it a self fulfilling prophecy (violence from dems or republicans)
I agree the best outcome is a clear cut win either way.
The USA is replicating many places who have fallen into civil war, themselves included. The similarities between the former Yugoslavia, and present day USA are freigterning. At some point soon, it will boil over into a shooting civil war. And the reality is civil wars are the absolute worst types of wars.
We can not allow this country to be drawn into it in any way. And we must stop other countries from being pulled in. The price of a expanding US civil war is extinction of us, as a species.
Trump plans to declare early victory
“Trump has privately talked through the scenario, describing plans to walk up to a podium and declare he’s won.”
Bernie Sanders speaks out about this here: Sanders Condemns Trump Plan to Falsely Declare Victory
“That has been his strategy for months, and nobody should fall for it,” said the Vermont senator, who has been sounding the alarm about this potential “nightmare scenario” in interviews, speeches, and on the campaign trail. “It’s why he is demonizing mail-in ballots and sabotaging the Postal Service.”
“As I have warned many times, Trump is very likely to declare himself the winner at a moment when a large portion Republican-leaning, in-person votes have been counted, but before a vast number of Democratic mail-in ballots are counted,” Sanders said Sunday. “Then he will continue his lies about voter fraud in an attempt to suppress enough votes to win. We will not allow that to happen. Every vote must and will be counted.”
————————-
Trump has a powerful accomplice in Fox News who are already falsely suggesting that Trump is the odds-on favourite: Fox Playing Key Role in Trumps Plan to Steal Election
With Election Day looming, the expert consensus is that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is in a strong position, with President Donald Trump needing to catch a number of breaks to win. But Fox News’ propagandists are making it sound like the president is the odds-on favorite, priming their audience to attribute any defeat to Democratic fraud.
Fox’s effort is a necessary — if not sufficient — step toward enacting Trump’s openly touted plan to try to steal the election (if it is close enough to do so) by preventing the counting of ballots legally cast for Biden. And even if the network fails to keep Trump in the White House, its reckless disinformation could raise tensions to feverish heights, potentially leading to political violence.
Fox’s election coverage over the past 24 hours has revolved around presenting anecdotal evidence that favors a Trump win as superior to polling data pointing to a likely Biden victory.
There’s no best case scenario here….LOL.
‘Send money guns and lawyers’ sang Warren Zevon
Donald Trump has all three and is prepared to use them.
“As soon as that election’s over, we’re going in with our lawyers,” Trump told reporters while discussing the possibility of a prolonged vote count in Pennsylvania.
Trump’s and Miller’s comments came amid speculation that Trump was preparing to declare victory if he appeared ahead on election night, before all the presumably Democratic-friendly mailed votes were counted.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/politics/election-live-updates-biden-campaign-to-barnstorm-pennsylvania-trump-vows-to-go-in-with-our-lawyers/ar-BB1aBDJB?ocid=msedgntp
I went home with the waitress
The way I always do
How was I to know
She was with the Russians, too?
I was gambling in ‘Washington’ [sic]
I took an awful risk
Send lawyers, guns and money
To get me out of this!
For those who might be interested.
Joint event of Die Linke Brussels and France Insoumise Brussels
Event: “US election results: a left-wing perspective”
Wednesday, 4th of November, 18:30 – 20:00 in Brüssel (Central European Time), 1.30 p.m. in New York (Eastern Daylight Time)
Platform: Zoom
with: Ethan Earle, policy analyst (USA, France)
The U.S. electorate will decide on November 3rd, whether Donald Trump will stay in office. The result and its consequences for Europe and the World can hardly be underestimated. This web based event will help us to make sense of the early results.
Ethan Earle, political analyst, who worked for several years with the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation office in New York, and who is now based in Paris, will help us to understand better the results and what they mean with regard for the left wing campaigns and the thousands of US American activists that were struggling to end the term of Donald Trump.
Zoom-Meeting
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/85676213857?pwd=b2pLbWlsbHlxeTNHVWV0djZEMm9MZz09
Meeting-ID: 856 7621 3857
Code: 122882
We are looking forward to an interesting discussion.
Best wishes,
DIE LINKE Brussels and France Insoumise Brussels
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