The death of the NZ RINO: What does National’s meltdown mean for the Right?

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The National Party campaign was a train-wreck dumpster fire that collided with a school bus that exploded next to a pet store.

Simon Bridges fell foul of the sudden solidarity created by Covid and National were caught flat footed by a crisis that only became worse by more free market deregulation.

No one wanted to hear about the State being cut back when everyone was running to the State for safety.

It highlighted the utter vacancy of National Party ideology, all they kept coming up with was privatisation!

Their position on the border was farcical…

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National Party Border Policy in 6 frames

…and that’s after you had to accept a former President of the Party leaking privileged information to a National MP who then leaked it to the media, another MP sending sext texts, another Party Offical smearing their own candidate, and the Todd Muller coup ignited by cowardice.

The hollowness of National’s ideology created an enormous friction on the Right and once the woke gave Seymour the freedom of speech war and ACT hit 2MPs, they became the fault line for this backlash against National.

ACT became the Values Party of the Right the way the Greens are the Values Party of the Left.

The vacant ideology coupled with National’s incompetence sparked an anger towards RINOs (Right In Name Only) and ACT has become the vehicle for the frustration.

While Seymour is leader, the power and appeal of ACT will grow, not diminish and I expect ACT to continue to cannibalise National’s vote.

While ACT will still be too radical for 2023, it will take more National vote and rather than water down their policy, they will radicalise more of the right.

While Seymour is in power, that radicalisation of a broader swathe of the Right has self imposed limitations that Seymour himself rigorously applies, but the next leader of ACT might see those self imposed restrictions as weakness.

The collapse of National is the end of a political dynasty and shows we as a country have finally hit the upper limit of boomer influence and farming political power. From here on in, National will decline as a political force while ACT radicalises more of the right and grows.

We are seeing the seeds sown of a far more polarised political future in NZ.

 

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13 COMMENTS

  1. What it means is Labour has possibly absorbed the so called soft National voter..and will do absolutely NOTHING that might upset that lot….if the Greens were strategic they wouldn’t let themselves get absorbed into this Government…..previously all inaction was NZ Firsts fault, apparently, now it will be the the excuse of the Covid Economy and keeping the ‘Grateful exNational Voters, Covid Survivors Club’ happy..and if National get slowly reorganized that lot will decamp real quick….either way..the lack of inaction..and Labours only two bottom lines..no Wealth Tax, no capital gains tax….leave little prospect of joy for the Greens..other than maybe an extra recycling collection truck every second week…

    • I wish people would stop using the phrase ‘soft National vote’ – it’s just the swing vote. It’s the same people who voted for Helen Clark’s government and then went with Key later on. I’m not sure they have an ideology and I’m not sure if their political knowledge is that deep.

    • “and will do absolutely NOTHING that might upset that lot”… The one thing that I’m finding since being back in NZ is that political debate has regressed back into backbrain reaction.. One of the more popular methods by which people display no ability to recognise their own intellectual limitations is to leap to a trite assumption, and then pronounce it as gospel… That really doesn’t help anything, let alone advance necessary debate…

  2. Pretty sure calling the supposed demise of National is a little premature. Isn’t this effectively identical to Labour’s 2014 and 2011 election results – yes, just 6 years ago Labour got a whopping 27.5%, i.e. about the same numbers as National did in 2020? Are people’s memories really this short?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_New_Zealand_general_election
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_New_Zealand_general_election
    Look where Labour are today!
    What the 2014 and 2020 results say to me, is that NZ voters aren’t (thankfully) very loyal to a particular party, but both Labour and National have a “base” that sits somewhere between 25 and 30% of the electorate. Everything outside of that is there for the taking.

  3. I’ve been saying this for weeks and you lot here haven’t listened.
    David Seymour for leader of the National Party.
    After all, if Brash can do it one way, why can’t David do it the other.
    DINO for leader of RINO

  4. National is not dead in the same way as Labour were not dead in 2014. The centre went to Jacinda to block the Greens. There is no left mandate. If I were you, id be devasted by the result.

    What was worse? The Wealth Tax or Kelvin Davis’ speech

    • A bit non-sequitur “Right On” because Act were already at 8% before the Greens proposed the wealth tax.
      ACT gained the National vote because National had three sets of leaders in 10 months and couldn’t organise a piss-up in a brewery.
      Jamie-Lee Ross exposing more Natzish dirty politics.
      The Covid-Karens.
      Racist Covid Placements
      Merv in Auckland central.
      The National list of dirty deeds list went on, is going on, and will continue to go on into the future when Luxon is appointed
      The dirty, filthy politics of National sent 8% of the vote to David Seymour, not the Greens’ tax.

      David Seymour became Peter Dunne – Mr Sensible, with a wiggly TV worm, and a semi-decent twerking routine, who at least didn’t drop his dancing partner like Rodney Hyde did. David Seymour became the new Colin Craig (but David’s more likeable)

      Time for National to mate, unite, re-absorb with David and get back to its right-wing roots.

  5. Why should this be the end of National? In terms of policies there is virtually no difference between Labour and National; the only real difference between the two is Jacinda herself and no-one actually knows what that means. I guess we will find out in three months time.
    As for the Greens, I am one of probably thousands who gave my Party vote to the Greens, not because I am a True Believer but because they were in danger of failing to get their 5% bedrock vote and I think it is necessary to have an environmental group in Parliament. In short I voted Green to save them despite the fact that they drive me crazy.
    If Jacinda quits for any reason and the Nationals put up a few decent environment policies, we will be back where we were three years ago.
    For the future I have low expectations.

  6. It was a choice between dirty, crusty blue politics or being kind and red politics
    Judith Collins aka ‘dirty politics give it back double’ was never going to beat Jacinda, no matter how many slurs and misogynistic ‘Cindy’ comments were made by Collins’ husband and Collins’ handlers.
    Bully boys like Brownlee also have no place in any western democracy politics and both he and Judith should resign.
    If all the rumours about him are true, all the more reasons for Gerry to gracefully bow out now.
    The biggest loss to National was Nikki Kaye, who has more talent, grace and likeability in her little finger than Brownlee and Collins put together.
    Nikki would have stood a chance against Jacinda, but National and its dirty politics ‘Mervs’ hitched Nikki’s star to the inexperienced Maga-loving Muller.
    So – a fustercluck of dirty politics, missed opportunities.

    Time for a re-building phase, a dung-out of dirty old politics and dusty old tainted Natz.
    Bring back Key in Luxon and give David Seymour the Deputy Leadership for a grand alliance of the right.

    • It would have been very unwise of Nikki Kaye to tilt for the leadership, I was surprised she went for 2IC. With her health history, major stress is not a great combo with it. I think she did the right thing for herself by stepping away.

  7. The onus is now for many within National to check their egos at the door and acknowledge they aren’t the right people in 2020 or into the future. Allow fresh ideas and talent into the party. This includes parliamentarians such as Brownlee and Smith and party officials such as Goodfellow. Will they do it – judging by the behaviours in the last 48 hours I doubt it.

    Will Act take advantage? This will depend on who Act has brought into parliament. Don’t know any of them which could be viewed as a good or bad thing. I don’t think anyone can predict how they will go. Certainly they can’t do worse than some of the MPs in National’s last uptake. Still Toxic and the gang will be waiting in the shadows like Banshees and missteps will be punished so Seymour better have a good structure around them.

    What you have to remember is even in an annus horribilis for the right such as this year 35% of the population voted for National/Act. There is no middle there – just solid rump.

  8. All part leaders should take not;
    If you create and nurture a lapdog puppy like act it will eventually turn into a monster and bite you on the bum. Sort of ‘anus horribilus’ (sorry FrankTT -couldn’t resist that)

  9. ACT has not picked a great time for their growth. If you look around the world, the left is on the rise everywhere (except in the USA, they have a long, long way to go in their evolution).
    There will be no serious shift to the right although that vote will consolidate farther right than the Nats, but it won’t be in large numbers.
    The rise to watch out for is the “steady staters” and the ideas of “circular economics” along with the general realization that we cannot grow forever in a finite world. Those will be the real rising stars. Economics and politics as we know them are changing.

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