How the Specials will change the result

Actual crowd shot of voters waiting for NZ election in Wellington 1931

There are 480,000 special votes yet to be counted, that’s 17% of total votes. This includes an estimated 66,000 overseas and dictation votes.

In previous years, the specials heavily favour the Greens and Labour.

If anything, the winners will be extra seats to the Greens and Labour while National and ACT lose out.

We could see 2 or 3 extra seats going to Labour + Greens coming from National and ACT.

I doubt it will change Auckland Central or Waiariki.

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The Left will be in a far more commanding position after the specials than they currently are now.

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  1. What difference does it make. Labour and National look almost alike as far as I can see policy wise. If the smaller parties gain that would be a plus to balance out the neo liberalism but who knows.

  2. Shane Reti won’t hold the seat in Whangarei.

    As an aside, I find it amusing that Judith Collins only ever refers to Shane Reti as “Doctor” Shane Reti. Apart from her media supporters, everyone else calls him Shane Reti. He was only ever a GP ffs.

    I’m sure Collins was not desperately trying to sell the message during a pandemic that they had a doctor on board.

    • In 2017 there were just over 4000 allowed special votes in Whangarei-equating to 83% of specials cast according to Elections NZ.

      So, on the trend, Emily Henderson has to be in with a good show of winning the seat for Labour. It has just been a bad habit for Northlanders to vote Tory for so long.


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